A little background on game analysts
Industry analysts. You like them when they praise your favorites. You hate 'em when they forecast stormy weather. But just who are these lads that get paid to opine on the video game industry and where they think it's headed? Joystiq's own Kyle Orland gets to the bottom of said experts in a 2005 Next-Gen piece that has aged well.For the most part, analysts create financial models for publicly traded companies. They plug in the numbers, crunch 'em, then interpret them for investors. Part of that interpretation includes buy/sell forecasting or "educated guessing" which is where most of the controversy stems from.
So who wouldn't want to get paid to have an opinion. Well, if what analysts say is correct (is that a paradox?), they work long hours for not as much pay as they could amass elsewhere. Still, they play games and talk games pretty much all day long for a living. Says prominent analyst Michael Pachter on his job, "If I am wrong in the press, I'll embarrass myself." But he still takes home a check.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Korova @ Feb 10th 2007 1:44AM
Basically, they are astrologists, except their charts run in Excel. It makes em look very impressive and very enjoyable, especially when you are drunk.
GhaleonQ @ Feb 10th 2007 2:05AM
Something tells me that those who analyze Goldman Sachs and ExxonMobil are slightly more intelligent than those who take on the Playstation 3 division of Sony.
neil @ Feb 10th 2007 2:17AM
I love how the "analysts" continuously ignore the success of the Wii and the installed base of the 360 in their predictions that the PS3 will once again reign supreme. Also, I love how the astronomical price of the PS3 is totally ignored. By having $500 minimum pricing it automatically eliminates the PS3 as a mass market device, let alone a game system.
Microsoft can and will lower the price of the 360 this year. It could EASILY drop the price of the core system to $199, virtually sealing the absolute doom of Sony. What can Sony do? Even if the price of the PS3 is dropped to $400 THIS Christmas it will still cost twice as much (hypothetically) as the 360 and STILL not have enough exclusive games to push spending twice as much as the 360.
Nintendo is laughing all the way to the bank; making profit day one from the Wii system sales and even if the Wii sensation dies out significantly at the end of this year, Nintendo would have sold enough Wii's to severely damage Sony this critical year.
Jake @ Feb 10th 2007 3:18AM
Analysts are Joystiq posters that were right three times or more in a row.
WamBam @ Feb 10th 2007 9:22AM
I have all three of the "next gen" systems and like them all but also recognize that each one has as many strengths as weaknesses. I hope that they all succeed in their own way because continuing competition will mean better gaming for me. Since I don't own stock in Sony, Nintendo or Microsoft, the investment I made was the price I paid for their systems. I'm much less worried about their books then I am about their overall success over the next couple of years. My prediction: they'll all be winners in their own way and I'll have lots of games to play!
NintendoFanbot @ Feb 10th 2007 9:30AM
I accidentally posted this in a different post (darn Firefox-ish Internet Explorer Clickwheel=New tab clicking!).
Here's MY personal industry analyst:
THIRD GENERATION CONSOLE CURSE
The rule that no company can hold the industry more than 3 times consecutively. It happened to Atari, it happened to Nintendo, and it COULD happen to Sony. If Nintendo happened to trounce 360 due to massive Japan gains that would be icing but either Wii or 360 is good. :P
*cue epic music
Though I should admit that we're seeing a Sony without the count of Europe. Who knows how well they could do there?
WamBam @ Feb 10th 2007 10:01AM
Question: Why does it seem like people hate Sony nowadays? Setting aside the price of their system, and the attitude with which it was unveiled, which I guess could be taken as arrogance but seemingly no more or less then Microsoft or Nintendo. What have they done to consumers to incur such wrath? Is it just that people feel a need to kick them when they're down or maybe backlash against their prior popularity? What has Sony done to you guys that you hate them so?
NintendoFanbot @ Feb 10th 2007 11:19AM
@ WamBam
Sony has decent products with mounds of good games, don't get me wrong, but from my personal view Sony is just too condescending on gamers such as myself (though in an indirect way). Note these are all from my view so no one should take them to heart.
Where to begin:
When the GameCube was initially debuted, Sony and Microsoft, while taking potshots at each other, were crapping on Nintendo for being a 'kiddy company'. Though debatable that Nintendo didn't really add to the problem or try to fix it, it was only magnified by PR mudslinging.
Throughout the GC's lifetime Nintendo was working to improve or simply promote their image, trying to get rid of some of their "tyrannical image" they had in their 'earlier years', especially with the N64. Sony and MS(while not going after each other) crapped on Nintendo for the same old complaints, mostly from Sony that 'Nintendo is kiddy' and MS's (I think) more fair comparison, that Nintendo didn't have a good plan for Online and such.
But here's what became the difference between MS and Sony.
Microsoft, with the debut of the 360 began talking more about their advantanges and mellowed out about criticizing others, and why not, they had a lot of stuff to show off (especially in the XBL department).
Sony, over GameCube's lifespan, called Connectivity a gimmick, called Nintendo's games kiddy, called DS kiddy AND a gimmick, and did the same thing with Wii at E3 2006, an event that showed how Nintendo was gaining momentum.
At E3 2006, Sony made the special point that they weren't interested in gimmicks, but in the same conference showed the wonders of PSP-to-PS3 "interoperability", acting as a 'second wing screen', and for the PS3's 'motion-sensing', showcased a game that didn't have motion-sensing until 2 weeks prior.
Obviously due to Nintendo's success in reaching the fans and the media Sony's plan that never changed combined with their less-than-enthusiastic showing blew up in their faces.
I don't want to kick them when they are down, but I have wanted them to be put in their place for a long time, all the way from when they were on top. If anything, Nintendo was the one being kicked around. Add Microsof to the latter group, as even I admit to giving Microsoft grief about not understanding console gamers, or as an American company, Japanese games, a group that controls much of the industry.
Furthermore, EVEN I KNOW that Sony had a SURE thing going into a third Playstation but due to certain decisions (such as the price) they simply became bloated with all the lofty multimedia goals they had in mind for the system. But of course they mock their competition for not offering as much 'value' as their own hardware.
Of course Nintendo, while being able to get certain things done right, isn't completely innocent with their activities (people like to complain understandably over GC's draughts, NWC's Friend Codes, Virtual Console, Sequel ad nauseum, Controller Prices and such) in the same timespan, but here's the deal with MY concern:
FANS. Fans blaming each other for things their companies can't take responsibility for. Do you think the fans will stop putting each other down if the executives themselves don't?
Nintendo and Microsoft have become much more focused on their own specialties while Sony, on its path to being the 'all-in-one' machine, can only talk the others down.
I'm alright with debating with PS3 fans because their preferred products are decent, but dealing with crap that execs throw around only adds to aggravation. There are fans who feel they need to justify the $600 price while it should be generally considered a bad or at least awkward decision as it was for consoles that little or no staying power (Neo-Geo, 3D0). It REALLY sucks when a fan accuses you of not liking PS3 because you 'can't afford it'.
I've always watched Nintendo closely, and watching Nintendo get a little success is great but for some reason Sony's always their mocking them and ready to ape their concepts. I won't say 'rip-off' but they are covering their bases in a HAPHAZARD manner. They have some novel ideas themselves like EyeToy but for everything good they do they keep piling on more blunders regarding the competition or their customers.
The 'all I want for x-mas is a PSP' poser blog was just another blow in Sony's attempts to connect with their customers. Not just theirs, but prospective customers of their competitors, such as myself. Maybe others won't agree with me, but I thought it was so stupid that it was almost insulting.
I just think that Sony needs to shut up and MAKE (not buy a company to make them, not publish a 3rd-Party's games, but actually MAKE them) good games for their $600 hardware. That's all they have to do and my ire may slowly melt away.
Anyways, I hope I explained that well enough.
But seriously, the gamer's best judgement should just be their own. They can't let others like other gamers, press, ANALYSTS or even developers mold it or they'll only end up with disappointments and/or regrets.
I like what I like and I won't have anyone tell me different. Not someone with a more "value-packed" console, not someone with a hardcore PC rig, and not someone who can 'afford everything' and think that avoiding expressing their preferences is the best or right thing to do.
I'm sorry if that's a little much, but that's the way I'm feeling towards the 3 companies coming into this generation.
nick @ Feb 10th 2007 11:20AM
Some analysts are funded by the very companies they're analyzing. I've known some to be biased. And I've known some to be quoted time and time again in various publications, even though their track records aren't the greatest or they've been discredited on the internet.
Anyone can spin data and draw conclusions.
Now that doesn't mean there aren't analyts that are legitimate or that have impressive track records. But you should do your homework, and personally I would never rely on the conclusions of any single analyst alone.
WamBam @ Feb 10th 2007 4:07PM
Thank you, NintendoFanBot
I don't desire to be in the position of defending Sony and that is my attention. I was just wondering why Sony has become so hated after two generations of successful consoles.
While I still feel that the Sony brand still represents quality, I realize that of late they have dropped the ball PR wise. The whole DRM fiasco, the exploding laptops and what did seem to be hurbis on the part of their PS division does make them appear clueless and unapologetic about the mistakes they've made.
Certainly, Sony would like connect all of their divisions which to me is a perfectly reason plan of attack. Microsoft is trying to expand the 360 beyond the defintion of what a console can be used for and if you look at a company like Apple, using hardware to push software, or vice versa, is something that large companies hope to do. Nintendo is really the odd man out here only because they are really just a games company and all they're really selling is games hardware and software. Though, one has to acknowledge that features such as the Wii weather and news channel is conceit by Nintendo to offer more then just games to it's users.
To me, Sony certainly has the goods to link many of their divisions be it hardware (Playstations, PSP's, mp3 players, displays) and software (games, movies, music.) Again, it's natural that a company that's as diverse as Sony, in so many different markets, would want to do that. But to be critical of them, they've always seemed out of touch with the consumer or else one step behind the market. To me, the DRM scandal was an example of Sony trying catching up to the digital music market and trying to implement an (awkward) way of protecting their property. And of course, Sony has always tried to go it's own way whether it's Beta, UMD's, Blu-Ray or Mini-Disc's. They're not bad products and I think you'd have a hard time arguing against their quality, it's just that it makes them seem aloof and as customers, it's hard to buy into technology that's limited.
I don't know if I noticed Sony being overly harsh when criticizing Nintendo, but in some ways it's their right to do that. They just have to have the goods to back it up. It doesn't make me hate Sony any less or love Nintendo any more, but certainly if you're going to call someone out, you better have something to show for it.
As far as first versus third party titles are concerned, this is where I scratch my head. Certainly, if you look at Sony many of the exclusives they've had over the years have been 3rd party - Final Fantasy, GTA, Metal Gear - and without them, Sony might be left with only a couple real first party winners. God of War comes to mind.
On the other hand, as much as one might critisize Sony for relying on 3rd party developement, couldn't you be critical of Nintendo for relying too heavily on first party titles? Hey, I love Mario, Zelda and Metroid but to me it seemed that these first party games were the only really blockbuster titles on N64 and Gamecube? It was like a drought between first party titles on the GC for me.
Maybe Microsoft has a winner on their hands this time around because they've culivated a great first party franchise in Halo and netted exclusives like Mass Effect, Gears and Crackdown. (This third party versus first party debate is interesting if you apply it to PC's, where such a thing doesn't really exist. How has that effected the PC game market?)
In the end, it's probably right to say that each company appeals to different types of gamers and that each company will have titles that people will want to play. Perhaps each company has its own challenge to face and this time around, Sony has to fight a PR battle against disenfranchised gamers.
WamBam @ Feb 10th 2007 4:10PM
Whoops, it should read...
I don't desire to be in a position to defend Sony and that is NOT my attention. Not a freudian slip of fingers, folks.
NintendoFanbot @ Feb 10th 2007 8:28PM
@ WamBam
Thanks for understanding. Really, I just want the companies solve their own problems. That's best thing to watch; their self-improvements, and they don't need anyone or anything else adding superficial aggravation to the problem.
Nintendo can be criticized truly, and it's the best thing to see them work to fix. Even though they aren't open on every project they're involved with, Nintendo is on the right track to fixing a few things.
Other companies have a right to criticize their competition, but in Microsoft's case they do more talking about what they plan for Xbox Live vs. Nintendo's own utilization of Online. With Sony it's more a matter of their technology is more "sophisticated and meant for more mature people" than Nintendo's product and audience. For a long while it looked like it would never change.
Anyways, thanks for understanding and being a Nintendo owner primarily, can understand your feeling that not enough original games (or even games in general) did not come as frequently as one would have liked. Though 3rd-Party games and GBA/DS really helped me tolerate it more. :P