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Reader Comments (50)

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 1:34PM Slaziman said

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Great! When it drops to 300-400 I'll buy it,

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 1:35PM (Unverified) said

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2009? 2009? Jesus christ - by then it won't matter. It needs to cost less now. By the time 2009 comes round they'll probably be giving xbox 360s away with every Burger King meal...

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 1:38PM (Unverified) said

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By 2009 the next Xbox will be on the horizon. The Sony 10 year plan will probably fail this time.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 2:35PM (Unverified) said

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Right now the blu-ray drive mechanism is very expensive -- as manufacturing ramps that will probably drop a franklin off of Sony's costs in a year's time as well.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 1:43PM (Unverified) said

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In 2009 there might even be a successor to XBox360. As pointed out by then it won't really matter.
There are also articles hinting at Sony not participating in developing any further Cell-cpu. If true that could leave Cell and PS3 as a dead end. I don't seem to find that article again.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 1:46PM (Unverified) said

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By then the Wii will be about $100 and almost impossible to find anywhere on the planet

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 1:44PM (Unverified) said

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I think you guys are reading this wrong. You better believe a price drop in the VERY NEAR future is coming. This drop to 45nm will be a SIGNIFICANT price drop. I assume we're talking 299 by 2009. By next year, you should expect 50-100 off the PS3 price, because they are switching from 90nm to 60nm, which will reduce costs. Also, Blu-ray will be coming down in price as it penetrates more market (assuming it days), so that will bring the price down as well. And they are going to remove the PS2-on-a-chip eventually, and use software emulation for PS2/PS1 backwards compatibility, which will also reduce costs.

The first price drop will not be in 2009. That would be suicide.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 1:44PM carg0 said

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(laughs)

...assuming the ps3 is still relevant by '09.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 5:51PM (Unverified) said

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PS3 is the betamax of 2007. It is a dead end. Once a product gets off to this bad a start with this bad a reputation, it's dead.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 2:38PM (Unverified) said

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Yeah, I own a 360 and an Xbox, I wish Microsoft still supported the Xbox and came out with a smaller version like Sony did with its previous consoles. I want to see all 3 companies do well, but Sony really keeps letting me down. By 2009 I will have totally lost any interest in the Ps3. Sony executed the previous 2 gens very well, but I think pandering to the hardcore gamer this gen with a focus on specs is killing them.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 11:47PM (Unverified) said

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By then the Wii will be about $100 and almost impossible to find anywhere on the planet


No by then the gimmick will be up.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 2:01PM spin cycle said

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This will be a huge cost reducer.

The current (launch) Cell is 90nm. A 45nm chip would be 1/4 the size. It would go from expensive to too cheap to make effectively (given the pin count). So they will roll all the major chips on the motherboard into one and make a single chip. This will save a truckload of money.

This is the same thing they did with the PS2, integrating the EE and GS into one chip in the PS2+ (later using that chip in the PS2 slim).

Sony doesn't make Cell, it is made by Toshiba. Toshiba makes a lot of chips, they make large-capacity flash memory on sub-65nm processes already.

BTW, this is a rerun of older news.

http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2006/02/01/sony_toshiba_nec_45nm/

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 2:15PM sand0789 said

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My magic number is a 20Gb+ PS3 for $300. Once that happens, I will be a PSWii60 fanboy.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 2:17PM (Unverified) said

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Ok, I just want to say that reducing the layer thickness of the cell processor will have NO effect on the PS3's size. It's like you're under the impression that the cell takes up most of the space inside the PS3, and shrinking the layers would thus make the whole unit smaller. I'm pretty sure that the cell makes up less than 5% of the volume of the PS3. Even if the size was HALVED, it'd have no effect on how big or small the console itself could be.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 2:25PM Crono141 said

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Stef Geiger,

You're assuming that the Cell is the only thing that will be shrinking between now and '09.

In 2 years, all the electronic components will be smaller and cheaper to make. It's not unreasonable to expect a "slim" PS3 in '09, just as we got a "slim" ps2 in what? '04?

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 3:01PM falcomadol said

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Yeah, 45nm WILL BE a huge cost saver. However, they haven't got the fabrication facilities to do it themselves, and they haven't picked a partner to do it.

A 65nm fab facility already costs in the billions of dollars, and 45nm fabs cost well over 65nm production. Most of the chip making companies on this planet do not have that kind of money lying around, frankly. You're talking about a process that's available to the Intels, AMDs, and IBMs of the world, and not all that many other companies at the moment.

In fact, Sony probably doesn't have that kind of money lying around right now, at least not that they can commit up front. Which is probably why they're looking for partners.

Meanwhile, Microsoft is just now dropping to 65nm fab, a well proven at this point technology that's available to many chip makers already.

As it stands, Chartered (of Xbox 360 renown), Samsung, and IBM just last year announced they were teaming up to try to make 45nm fabs not just affordable but financially feasible in the first place.

45nm is not something that can happen this year for Sony. If the documents were in place now, you'd be talking about a year until the fab was operational, and then you'd have to actually do all the work of the die shrink. 2009 might even be an optimistic timeline for that.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 2:43PM (Unverified) said

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I think people mean that the size will decrease because of reduced heat and therefore less space required for airflow and fans. But who cares anyway? I'm not avoiding the PS3 because of its size, I'm avoiding it for its high cost.

And another thing, they want to do the 45nm by 2009!?! To little to late I think. I guess someone should have stuck with Intel who will have 45nm quad-core processors by the end of 2007.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 2:39PM (Unverified) said

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12. Stef Geiger, a smaller, cooler processor means other components will shrink with it. Like fans and such.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 2:37PM (Unverified) said

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Mr. Geiger,

Good intuition, but smaller chips (using a smaller process) will also put out less heat, thus reducing the need for cooling. And yes, the PS3 currently has some massive fans and heatsinks taking up a ton of room, and you can't currently operate it in confined spaces with any confidence because of all the heat it puts out. Same goes for the 360.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 3:00PM (Unverified) said

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Damn, #14 beat me to it,heh.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 2:41PM (Unverified) said

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Also, unless I'm mistaken, the nm figure gives the gate width on the FETs.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 6:19PM (Unverified) said

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@15 just to clarify - they couldn't produce an xbox slim because most of the xbox components were bought off the shelf. There was no need for nvidia to cost reduce as they had a captive consumer who just had to keep on payin...

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 2:51PM (Unverified) said

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I really don't think sony/toshiba is going to get back what they invested in the cell. It hasn't been used in consumer electronics like they planned. The plan of 100-200 million cell processors by 2010 forming a giant global broadband network, is looking more and more like a pipe dream.

http://www.eetimes.com/story/OEG20010313S0113

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 2:55PM Mr Khan said

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I bet the generation will be over by 2009, given Microsoft's precedent of a 4 year generation

Nintendo will probably follow the 4-year thing this time too, and release a $200 console that's stronger than the PS3 in 2010

I'm surprised Sony's seriously considering this far into the future though, wow.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 2:57PM (Unverified) said

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I don't mean to sound anti-Sony, but 45nm by 2009? We're getting 45nm multi-core processors by the end of this year, and those good ol' Cell folks can't make it happen for another two years?

The 360 and Wii will be dirt-cheap by the time the PS3 gets a price drop.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 3:08PM (Unverified) said

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"I think you guys are reading this wrong. You better believe a price drop in the VERY NEAR future is coming. This drop to 45nm will be a SIGNIFICANT price drop. I assume we're talking 299 by 2009. By next year, you should expect 50-100 off the PS3 price, because they are switching from 90nm to 60nm, which will reduce costs. Also, Blu-ray will be coming down in price as it penetrates more market (assuming it days), so that will bring the price down as well. And they are going to remove the PS2-on-a-chip eventually, and use software emulation for PS2/PS1 backwards compatibility, which will also reduce costs.

The first price drop will not be in 2009. That would be suicide."

FAN BOY!!!!! BWAHAHAHHA


The price of blu-ray players will have a "SIGNIFICANT price drop". 250 dollers is considered a "SIGNIFICANT price drop" Lets see, Blu-Ray cost 1,200 so that'll be 950 dollers big fucking woop.

Posted: Feb 14th 2007 11:30AM Supino said

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wohooo. Possible prizedrop in 2009!!! CANT - WAIT :D

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 3:13PM (Unverified) said

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Uh... "but.. but... PS3 won't be relevant in 2009!!". I lol'd. How many dropouts are posting here? They didn't say "first price drop", nor did they say "only price drop". A price drop is probably coming soon, and a few more will probably follow. It's common sense. All parts will shrink or be cheaper to make even before the cell manages to reach a 45nm process.

The article is talking about a major price drop, retards.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 3:16PM DrXym said

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@5, I can well believe there will be a successor to the 360 by 09. Microsoft aren't exactly known for supporting their consoles for very long or providing useful backwards compatibility either. So live it up while you still can. Buy as many 360 titles as you can and the complain loudly when MS drops your console as fast as they dropped the XBox before it.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 3:17PM (Unverified) said

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The GameCube went from $200 to $150 in 5 months, and then 16 months later it went down to $100. The price was cut in half in less than 2 years. If the Wii's anything like the GameCube (as in already making a profit), it'll cost $100 by 2009, and we'll see what the PS3 costs then. If it costs 4-6 times as much as a Wii, it's THE DOOMED.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 3:33PM NintendoFanbot said

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25: "The article is talking about a major price drop, retards."

The guy you 'quoted' was using sarcasm, clown.

Use your PS3 money to future-proof your sarcasm detector for common sense.

Anyways***************

If this means a PSthree someday down the road, that could be great news because a lot of people don't like the PS3's bulky design. Like the way PStwo turned out, I expect the PSthree to look 100x better.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 4:14PM (Unverified) said

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NintendoFanbot:

As a "bot", you should learn to "scan" the whole thread before actually posting. There were retards that actually thought this would be the first price drop, not just one person.

Moron.

Posted: Feb 17th 2007 4:28AM (Unverified) said

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The reduced size of the chips means nothing in the full picture. What most people forget is how Sony and Toshiba have sunk billions into the Cell and are still losing hundreds of dollars on each PS3 sold. First the cost of the PS3 needs to be reduced to the point where the original price point can actually get them profit. Remember Sony is really REALLY deep in debt and they cannot afford to loss more money on this. Coupled by the low attach rate for the PS3 only makes things worse.

Meanwhile Nintendo will be making money hand over fist with the DS and Wii and Microsoft will be sinking more billions into the Xbox 360 to keep it relavant. Or until Microsoft's shareholder get pissed to the point where they vote to kill the Xbox brand.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 4:57PM (Unverified) said

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@WEEZY

You're talking out of your ass. Blu-ray inside of the PS3 does not cost anything near 1,200 or 950. And I'm a fanboy because I discussed a price drop for the PS3 with logic? Stick your head back in the sand, you obviously came to this discussion a few brain cells short.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 6:28PM (Unverified) said

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2009? Hmmm.. seems a little far off...

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 6:32PM sand0789 said

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Warren,

I just realized you copied my "standard Wii fanboy comment" from another thread. It's sort of a --Cartman/Grandma's boy/anti-ps3 in an ironic way-- comment. (if you know why it is is Carman/Gma's Boy/Irony then you are up on your 22 year old pop culture) It goes like this.

"The wii has motion sensing controls. It is the future of gaming. You see where PS3 releasing PS2 games with HD is getting them."

I think it is funny that you repeated it in a different thread, so now I will repeat this in many articles to stir up Sony fanboys. The kicker, I only own a 360 and have no real business ripping on the PS3 or Wii until I own one.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 6:36PM spin cycle said

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Acutally 45nm is the transistor gate length, not gate width. What's the difference? I dunno.

adam:
You're dead right about that. I wouldn't worry though. Sony and Toshiba also started out with grandiose plans for the EE (Emotion Engine, heart of the PS2), and it didn't end up in any other successful products either. It's just a Japanese tendency to make grandiose statements about how your new chip will be widely adopted. If PS3 sells 50M units, the costs of Cell will be covered. Besides, IBM shouldered the development costs anyway, not Sony, it's their risk.

Warren Frame:
As to your #2, it was Jack Tretton who said cost reduction wouldn't happen soon. Jack Tretton is in a software division of SCEA. PS3 hardware is done in a hardware devision of SCEI. Plus, Jack Tretton is a loud-mouthed bonehead, as evidenced by his comments about offering $1200 for any PS3 that sits on the shelf over 5 minutes.

To everyone speculating on the cost of developing a chip shrink: just don't. If you aren't familiar with the cost structures, don't jump in and pretend you are.

J.Goodwin:
As mentioned in the link I posted above, Sony, IBM and Toshiba are in Cell together. Toshiba is already readying sub-65nm flash for mass production. And IBM is one of the companies you mentioned as a "go-to" company for process technology. So I think you answered your own question. Sony already started planning for this over a year ago, they're way ahead of most of the people on this thread.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 7:19PM (Unverified) said

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Well thi sounds like way too long for a price reduction to me. Hopefully they'll figure out how to ge the price down sooner that that.

I just started a new site to help "Save the PS3". It's in serious trouble, and anyone whose interested in the future of the sweet but dusty machine should check it out. I'd appreciate it. Go to savetheps3.com to check it out. Thanks.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 7:20PM Slaziman said

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Sorry but isn't Toshiba behind HD-DVD? Why did they help produce the product that is killing their own product?

Posted: Feb 16th 2007 12:09PM thund3rstruck said

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"Buy as many 360 titles as you can and the complain loudly when MS drops your console as fast as they dropped the XBox before it."

Obviously you're a clueless idiot. The reason the XBOX is dead is because Microsoft did not own the hardware rights to the production of the system and thus they were really limited in what they could do in continuing to support it. The 360 is a different story.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 8:29PM teejaykay said

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"6. You better believe a price drop in the VERY NEAR future is coming."

Um, since when is June 2008 the "very near future"?

http://www.joystiq.com/2007/01/22/tretton-ps3-will-be-difficult-to-cost-reduce/

Posted: Feb 14th 2007 7:45AM xGearSecondx said

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"I just started a new site to help "Save the PS3". It's in serious trouble, and anyone whose interested in the future of the sweet but dusty machine should check it out. I'd appreciate it. Go to savetheps3.com to check it out. Thanks.

Posted at 7:19PM on Feb 13th 2007 by Salman"


LOL...SavethePS3.com....lol!!

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 8:43PM spin cycle said

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Revo:
Doesn't the name Jack Tretton ring a bell? Read my post #38.

Slaziman:
Yes, Toshiba backs HD-DVD. Sony and Toshiba have been allies a long time. They did DVD together (er, merged their efforts), they did the PS2 together, and they did the PS3 together. These are big companies sometimes the entire company doesn't pull together in one direction. By all accounts the main processor in the latest iPods (and perhaps iPhone) is made by Samsung, competitor to Apple in the Laptop and MP3 player markets. Things happen that way.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 9:05PM teejaykay said

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"42. Revo:
Doesn't the name Jack Tretton ring a bell? Read my post #38."

See, there's one key point you seem to be missing. Jack Tretton is a bonehead, yes, but he always makes his boneheaded statements *in favor of the PS3*. He wants to make his company's console look as good as he possibly can. Why would he make a statement like that if he didn't mean it?

As for being involved in software rather than hardware, that's somewhat irrelevant. He's the freaking President and CEO of Sony Computer Entertainment of America. Do you really think he'd be left completely in the dark about something so important?

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 9:56PM (Unverified) said

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By then the Xbox 4D will be out!

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 10:43PM (Unverified) said

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@Revo

Sony can't wait till June of 2008 for a price drop. They need people to pick up their system, and SOON. At 600, only two types of people will pick this up: Hardcore Sony fans, and those looking for a cheap Blu-ray option.

And he has to deny a PS3 price drop simply because saying it is coming soon would cannibalize any sales they are getting at the moment. If the public knew in, say, 3-6 months, the PS3 60gb would drop from 600 to 525-550, sales would drop off in anticipation.

Sony is not in a good position. I think the price drop could come by the holiday season, especially if Microsoft or Nintendo drop theirs. They'd have to, just to stay in the race.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 11:19PM teejaykay said

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"45. And he has to deny a PS3 price drop simply because saying it is coming soon would cannibalize any sales they are getting at the moment. If the public knew in, say, 3-6 months, the PS3 60gb would drop from 600 to 525-550, sales would drop off in anticipation."

I've heard this before, but the problem with it is that it's bound to make a lot of people holding out for a PS3 just give up and go for a 360 or a Wii.

Posted: Feb 13th 2007 11:55PM sand0789 said

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Yeah, in business it is all business. Toshiba can back HD-DVD and Cell at the same time and it means nothing. I am an engineer and have a similar relationship with a company. We are trying to steal an entire business from them on one hand, trading technoligies in two different fields, and fighting them off in another. We're cool with it, too. And we recently launched a huge effort with our mortal enemy arch rival. It is all about dolla dolla bills, yall.

It isn't like a Nintendo Fanboy buying a Sony HDTV. That would be heresy.

Posted: Feb 14th 2007 2:24AM (Unverified) said

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One interesting comment coming up is "we will have the xbox version 3 by 2009", for two reasons. As the current XBOX (no HD drive, pathetic HD, no HDMI) would be obselete, those buying the "cheaper" 360 would actually end up spending 50% more as compared to PS3. Also, we saw the advantage the 360 had in Nov 2007 due to its 8mn installed base. The PS3 would have a far greater installed base - which could prove killing for the new XBOX console. It does seem like the PS3 is beating the 360 hands down in terms of manufacturing - first to 65nm, and first to 54nm as well (if the 360 ever gets there), and far superior build quality.

Posted: Mar 14th 2007 7:15PM MLC said

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I think Sony needs to drop the price asap. The main reason i bought one is because the 360 lifespan is under 1.5 years and the wii will be old. The PS3 is the best console. I believe once blu ray wins the format or becomes cheaper in production, there will be a price drop. Also, with rumble coming back in the near future, sony will have the success they have been waiting for. All they need is time....

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