Analyst: Wii could plague 30% of U.S. homes
After topping the charts as the best selling console in January, Wii could make its way into 30% of U.S. households by 2011 according to Merrill Lynch analyst Yoshiyuki Kinoshita. In addition, Kinoshita believes penetration of Japanese homes could be as high as 33% where Wii currently accounts for 68% of the country's total next-gen market.Say it ain't so! If that were the case, Nintendo would bombard us every hour with press releases (in all caps, mind you) for any given Wii related story, not to mention the bigger ones. I can see the headlines now: "Nintendo bigger than Walmart," "Wii becomes mandatory requirement for sports therapy majors," and "Kutaragi promoted as Nintendo's assistant to the regional manager."
All seriousness aside, analysts are also challenging the belief that Wii is nothing more than a fleeting Tamagotchi type gimmick. "There has been a concern that the Wii was gimmicky but each passing month assuages that," says analyst Jay Defibaugh. Look out, world.
[Thanks, Falafelkid]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
Terry @ Feb 22nd 2007 12:33PM
Kutaragi is at least the assistant regional manager
Sir Josh @ Feb 22nd 2007 12:36PM
i dunno how it'll do in the long run but they need to hurry up with the online functionality
Baby21 @ Feb 22nd 2007 12:40PM
Unless if they have some games and online gaming.
I would said it is possible.
Xbox 360 - Watch out, You may going to lose USA number 1 game market.
Ritz @ Feb 22nd 2007 12:42PM
Must...get...Nintendo...stock?
REUYL @ Feb 22nd 2007 12:43PM
It's great that Nintendo's #1 again and all, but I honestly don't find anything that great about the Wii.
I must be the minority.
Psaakyrn @ Feb 22nd 2007 12:43PM
You know, if the Wii penetration is so high, and people keep on getting careless with the Wii, your insurance policy cost might rise if you have a Wii. (or to be precise, the Wii could be seen as a risk factor when calculating the insurance policy costs)
Just an idle thought, but it's possible. Wii safely, and stop having accidents!
Vidikron @ Feb 22nd 2007 12:45PM
IMO, I think the Wii will still lose momentum at some point. I own all 3 of the consoles and the Wii already gets the least play time. The coolness/newness factor of the motion controls wore out pretty quick. That's just me though... maybe other people are still amazed by the system.
Grog @ Feb 22nd 2007 12:45PM
Anybody know what the "household" numbers are for Japan and the US? I could look them up on the Census site I'm guessing, but I need to run (why then am I bothering to post this? :) ). Anyway, I was under the impression that it was like 100 million households, and having a Wii in 30 million households doesn't seem nearly as impressive as "30% of US households." There'll be some doubling up, but those numbers still don't seem *that* huge to me. Certainly possible, at least.
Chris @ Feb 22nd 2007 12:46PM
Maybe now companys will actually make some games for it instead of PORTING THEIR DAMN PSP GAME.
God that is going to get old fast.
x876543 @ Feb 22nd 2007 12:47PM
I didn't (and still don't) know any adults that played with Tamagotchi toys.
Jay @ Feb 22nd 2007 12:48PM
I'm sorry, did I just read "Wii" and "next-gen" in the same sentence?
It's a Gamecube in a different dress! How, in any sense of the terminology, may the Wii be considered "next-gen"?
Yes, it may be innovative in terms of control and fun to use, but my old PS1 has better graphics.
Jason B @ Feb 22nd 2007 12:53PM
I'm with you REUYL. This is a $150 console that is gaining a cult status. Its a giant snowball rolling downhill now and I don't know when it will stop. With the exception of maybe Zelda I'm not so sure I understand its appeal at $250. I mean lets be real folks, it is a Gamecube with a new controller (don't get me wrong, I like the idea of the controller). I must give it to Nintendo though, they have managed to re-sell millions their Gamecube and charge them an additional $150 for their new controller...Brilliant!
I hope this doesn't last forever, as I am pretty sick of the seemingly countless Wii-joice stories that I see on Joystiq everyday.
Flame suit...ACTIVATED!
comradetrotskii @ Feb 22nd 2007 12:54PM
Didn't these same 'analysts'(or it could have been any other analysts, frankly they are all as useless as each other) predict that the Wii would make up around 15% of the total home console market about a year back, (with the PS3 something like 45% and the 360 40%).
If these guys don't shut up they will be analysing my foot lodging itself in their collective ass.
PS3Crashed @ Feb 22nd 2007 12:55PM
Jay,
Both of your questions are in fact one question. And it could also be said that Question 2 is Question 1 in a different dress. And sorry kid although Wii can't put out PS3 graphics, its definitely better than PS1 graphics. Stop the hate. You should pick up a Wii. It's fun!
Sincerely,
Numbers Don't Lie
Psaakyrn @ Feb 22nd 2007 12:59PM
to #11 Jay
Making up facts will get you nowhere.
FACT: Wii has better graphics capabilities than XBox, GC, and PS2.
FACT: Wii has worse graphics capabilities than XBox 360 and PS3.
Jason B @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:01PM
Psaakym
Show me a game on the WI that looks better than RE4
nuff said.
3cubedminus3squared @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:02PM
I wish I could find a Wii to put next to my 360. The system I'm playing the most right now is my PS2 though. After Gears got boring, my 360 has been off.
Prophecy @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:02PM
Why do people compared Wii graphics to PS3 360 graphics. IT CAN'T DO THAT! but what it can do is offer a different way to play games if it had the same graphics as those to it would be the same price as those too. If you don't like it don't buy it, if you bought it and don't want you can sell it for more than retail price.
Jack of No Trades @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:04PM
@ PS3Crashed
Not everybody thinks the Wii is fun. Many people I know think think playing Lost planet and Crackdown is funner than Zelda and Raymon.
@ Psaakyrn
Unproven Fact: Wii has better graphics capabilities than XBox, GC, and PS2.
Proven Fact: Wii has worse graphics capabilities than XBox 360 and PS3.
bgdc @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:04PM
You hardcore gamers are missing the point - the Wii isn't attracting your narrow demographic. The Wii's appealing to all ages and groups. This isn't about running around gunning down people or driving race cars with complex realistic physics...this is about simple pick and play fun.
The Xbox and PS do not appeal to average people. They are complex, cumbersome and their games require quite a bit of reading/trial and error. Any moron can pick up a wii and play with the bowling game. That's why it's catching on like wildfire.
Stop thinking like a gamer and think about mass market. Keep it simple stupid (kiss) principle is what is selling the wii - KISS and fun = profit.
fightinfilipino @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:04PM
man, someone point these "Gamecube 1.5 OLOL" folks towards the new Sonic game, Mario Galaxy, hell, anything being developed from the ground up for the Wii.
graphics-wise, it is clearly more powerful than a Gamecube.
Jono Stars @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:05PM
good lord. If it isn't the PS3's failure to launch, it's Nintendo's success that people are bashing.
*throws the xbox 360 into the fray
Let Nintendo have their moment dammit.
Crono @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:06PM
Blake, don't you mean "All joking aside" instead of "All seriousness aside"?
Psaakyrn @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:06PM
to #16 Jason B
By the way, do you know that some games look better on the XBox 360 than on the PS3? That doesn't mean that the PS3 has worse capabilities than the XBox 360, does it?
Just because that it doesn't exist doesn't mean that it's not capable. As for me, I just look at the hardware specs, plain and simple. The Wii has better specs than GC, XBox, and PS2, thus it has better capabilities.
umm....hello?? @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:08PM
@9
umm...wrong console. you are thinking of the PS3 making stupid games downloadable to their PSP.
@12
at least it was only $250 to play one game--Zelda. I paid $600 to play one game--R:FoM. where's the value in that? also, you could buy a Gamecube for only $100 and buy Zelda: TP and save $150.
@11
Jay, you're a retard that needs to have his vision checked. The Wii has better graphics than a PS1.
@7
I find both my PS3 and my Wii get the least amount of playtime, but my Wii gets more playtime than my PS3....right now am too busy playing Crackdown--ONLINE CO-OP FTW!!!!!!!!!!!!!
bgdc @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:08PM
BTW, some person mentioned homeowner's insurance and owning a wii could mean higher rates. That's just retarded. Have you ever owned a home? Insurance companies ask very few questions when you FIRST signup and not a single one relates to electronics. After getting the policy you never again interact with the insurance company - barring a claim.
generaldane @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:10PM
@Jack of No Trades
Mario Galaxy says hi to you
Jason B @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:11PM
bgdc
I agree with you for the most part. The question I have is how many games will those "morons" (i.e. casual gamers) you're talking about buy over the life of the console? Will it be enough for 3rd Party devs to make money? I'm not saying it won't, but hardcore gamers are still the bread and butter of the gaming software world because they buy so much of it. And if they buy alot, won't they then be hardcore gamers?
Ritz @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:13PM
I love how everyone who hates on Wii calling it a Gamecube with a new controller remembers to continually ignore the fact that Wii can do so much more that the GCN.
I will agree with the notion that it may not be "next-gen" in the familiar sense (even Nintendo calls Wii "NEW gen") but everyone is aware (regardless of whether they state so or not) that Wii has much more functionality than the Gamecube ever did.
This extra functionality + a new controller scheme + the ability to play all of the old Gamecube games = $250 in my books, and apparently for a lot of people this past month ;)
Jack of No Trades @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:14PM
@ bgdc
"...this is about simple pick and play fun."
This is whats going to kill the game industry. If every company made games so that any moron could just pick up and play it would kill everything I love about video games.
"Stop thinking like a gamer and think about mass market. Keep it simple stupid (kiss) principle is what is selling the wii - KISS and fun = profit"
If this keeps up then video games will soon turn into $5 electronics we can buy at dollar general.
Simple Fun/Easy profit=lazy developing/bad quality
Earl @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:15PM
Nintendo is doing something right. For kids today the Wii is what the NES was for myself: a ground shattering, industry saving VIDEO GAME console. It's not a multimedia center, a "living room" computer; first and foremost it is a gaming system and does the gaming aspect extremely well.
I am happy Nintendo is takiing the different path. I am happy Nintendo is sticking to the standard of game consoles being used to play video games. I am happy Nintendo is not going for the trend of $400-$600 systems. If you seriously wannt to play graphics intensive games: buy a computer (at least it can be upgraded). Someone needs to show that graphic power IS NOT what makes games fun. I own a 360 also, but the Wii is my favorite system so far.
The Wii will be in more than 30% of homes, it is cheap and has plenty of games kids can enjoy. It will only get cheaper over the next few years. Owning a Wii will be like owning a DVD player: it will be a standard living room accessory.
R @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:17PM
One of the reasons why the Wii is gaining momentum is because it's cheaper than the 360 or PS3. For gamers and fanboys, price is no problem, but for others such as parents or people like me who like video games but are not really serious, $250 is a good deal for a new console.
The PS3 and 360 are awesome systems (I want either one!) but their prices are incredibly high! I've read people that it's worth it, but for $700, I can buy some other more useful.
I read that DDR will come to the Wii, and when tha happens I will buy the Wii in a heartbeat. Right now, I don't have a 360, PS3 or Wii. Instead, I am sticking to my DS Lite.
Psaakyrn @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:18PM
to #26 bgdc
Ok, so insurance policies in USA work differently from where I'm from, my mistake.
to #30 Jack of No Trades
Not precisely. There'll always be a niche market for hardcore gamers, like the current one we have now. The mass market is an entirely different market.
john @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:24PM
I don't know about 30%, but when the Wii is outselling all the other new systems, and you still can't find them on store shelves, that means that we just don't know yet how big the demand for the Wii is. We know it's big, but how big? We will only know how popular the Wii is once they get production up to match demand.
That aside, the one thing we do know is that it's going gangbusters on the other systems.
bgdc @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:25PM
"I agree with you for the most part. The question I have is how many games will those "morons" (i.e. casual gamers) you're talking about buy over the life of the console? Will it be enough for 3rd Party devs to make money? "
I'd assume on the surface, maybe not. But Nintendo's Wii is profitable the moment it's sold. Selling more peripherals and more in-house games will keep nintendo going strong.
If they really do achieve 33% market penetration, you must assume some of those buyers will be the type to buy multiple games.
I've always fallen into the category of casual gamer. On my PS1 I'd buy Need for Speed and Madden - 1995 on to 2000. On my PS2, same two games, plus 1 GTA game and Socom 2. That's it. 6 years with a PS2 (launch of 2000 on to 2005 when I gave it away) and I bought at most 12 games.
Prophecy @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:26PM
Will someone tell me what makes a system "Next-Gen" because last i check this the 7th generation of game consoles and they are PS3, 360, and the Wii, so how is that not Next-Gen but i may be wrong. And as for graphics it can't do what they do but Sonic looks great.
Rod @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:28PM
"I hope this doesn't last forever, as I am pretty sick of the seemingly countless Wii-joice stories that I see on Joystiq everyday."
As a proud Wii owner, I agree I'd much rather read PS3 miserable failure stories. You better get used to it cause they'll be alot more of both...
Prophecy @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:31PM
Also, off topic, anybody know a release date for Spore?
jojonyc @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:32PM
yawn you guys..
how does every comment section eventually end up a fanboy pissing contest?
as much as i would love to see wii sell through that much, analysts tend to pretend the next 5 years will play out exactly like the 2 months before they make their predictions. this is a prime case of "time will tell."
but why should we believe this analyst? he can't rumble OR play dvds.
PS3Crashed @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:32PM
@ Jack of No Trades
When did Raymon take a vacation to Jamaica?
And when did "funner" become a word?
If anyone was wondering my name "PS3Crashed" refers to when I tried the PS3 for the first time it crashed, and the Gamestop employee went on to tell me that it'd been crashing all day long due to overheating. Sony couldn't even get their store displays right. Looked gorgeous, but Sony makes hardware that lasts about a year before it breaks.
I'm completely pro Wii and 360 because they are the lesser of the three evils.
Joop @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:34PM
@28
Hardcore gamers do not make up the bulk of game sales. Remember the recent story about the top selling games of 2006? Crappy movie licensed games outsold games that appealed to more "hardcore" gamers.
The average individual casual gamer will make fewer game purchases than the average individual hardcore gamer, but there are still many, many more casual gamers than hardcore, so individual average purchases don't really matter. Also, a huge casual gamer install base is great for the hardcore games, since it means a much higher potential to sell as opposed to a hardcore gamer centric console with an install base that's a fraction of the Wii's. Larger install base means more sales for every kind of game, and devs love love love that.
bgdc @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:34PM
Jack said: "This is whats going to kill the game industry. If every company made games so that any moron could just pick up and play it would kill everything I love about video games."
No, they will always make games for the hardcore folks. Did the sims kill PC gaming? No.
"If this keeps up then video games will soon turn into $5 electronics we can buy at dollar general."
That's the marketing ideal. DVDs are far more a commodity because they reach a far wider swath of people. How many DVD players/drives do you have in your house? By my count, my home 2 people (2 adults in their late 20s) has 8 devices capable of playing DVDs.
"Simple Fun/Easy profit=lazy developing/bad quality"
Profit. Companies are not in gaming to make great things or promote new ideas. They exist to make money and fill stockholders pockets. The wii's success could very well be a paradigm shift. Finally gaming has moved away from 14 button controllers with complex functions to simple, fun and easy to pick. It's moving from the domain of the lonely guy at home to the living room where the entire family plays.
Sony and MS talked about making the PS and Xbox media hubs. They missed the fact that most families have it all fine right now. They don't show much desire for a media hub. A DVD player in every home, most homes have a set top box and more and more sat/cable companies are adding DVR to those settop boxes. The need for a device that plays MP3s isn't there as cable/sat allows for 50-60 channels of commercial free music. TV recording is done by DVRs. Watch movies on cable VOD and DVD players.
There is no need (rarely is with electronics) and frankly the desire isn't there either. MS and Sony released complex, expensive products that aren't filling buyers with desire.
Invention is the mother of necessity. Some inventions create a need in the consum,er - iPods/MP3 players. Tivo's invention became so useful that the actual brand is now a verb. Even though most people use a DVR they still say they will Tivo a show. The invention became a necessary part of life - a need was created. Some inventions are met with a collective shrug - internet through the TV.
mr mobius @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:42PM
I think the number of Zelda and Red Steel sold so far shows that not just the casual crowd are buying the wii.
To the person who said ps1 has better graphics than wii,
wii>gamecube>ds>n64 and n64>ps1
ps1 didn't even have the best graphics of its generation so go get an eye test or stop being such a bloody fanboy.
zelda had good graphics, but they were of a standard slightly better than gamecube, because it was designed originally as a gamecube game
back at start of ps2/gamecube/xbox generation, the games didn't look as good as at the end of the generation, so give wii developers some time to get used to the system. metroid prime 3 and super mario galaxy will show you a better representation of the wii graphics.
Psaakyrn @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:42PM
to #38 Prophecy
No.
Jonathan Tran @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:46PM
I thought it was assistant regional manager.
@39
Obviously before you made your statement you did not consider that their estimate is nothing close to extrapolating in the way you're suggesting.
Brian @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:46PM
But where are the games!?!
FrankTheCrank @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:51PM
480P folks...
I hate the fact that it has 480P graphics. That sucks.
I only bought it because I know Nintendo will deliver the BEST first party titles. They always do.
PSWii!!!
Triforceowner @ Feb 22nd 2007 1:58PM
50 million homes sounds plausible, but I have this weird GameCube feeling. Isn't this exactly what went down with the Cube? Let's hope Nintendo and third parties can keep the Wii afloat.
Prophecy @ Feb 22nd 2007 2:00PM
I promise i am going to hurt Will Wright, Release a date for SPORE ALREADY!!?!?!?!??!?!? Sorry i know that's off topic, Wii has a great line up coming but it's going to take a while and for hardcore gamers that's a problem as far as the casual gamers they are fine swinging a controller back and forth to hit a tennis ball, I mean how many grandmoms and non-gamers can mover the analog while holding Y and X to hit the ball back.
J @ Feb 22nd 2007 2:02PM
I don't feel like the Wii motion controls have gotten stale already. Its not that I am mezmorized by it or anything but I happen to think that playing an FPS with a wiimote makes me never ever want to go back to analog. Gears with a wii remote would just be insane. Maybe I happen to have a steady hand but man it was easy to aim and shoot nazis in COD3. Metroid should be pretty ridiculous. I hope it is. I don't really have any complaints. I really wish I could fuse my wii with a 360 for a true wii60. I would just cry if that was possible. Hey Ben...... Do something about this already lol
!!