Analyst: DS could end up being the greatest of all-time
Look out, PS2. One analyst says the DS may give you a run for your 115 million units-sold money. "The DS has the potential to be the best-selling interactive entertainment platform ever," predicted DFC analyst David Cole in a recent report on the expected growth of handheld gaming. But the lil' DS has a long way to go; it has only sold 40 million units to date. Cole also suggested that handhelds could ultimately outsell consoles by 2011 lead by the dual-screener. But will it happen?
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
JodyAnthony @ Mar 21st 2007 2:21PM
Nintendo es winnar
Derbeste @ Mar 21st 2007 2:21PM
Yes...it's inevitable.
It will never REPLACE console gaming (big screens will never lose their appeal), but it WILL eventually outsell consoles.
People are all about convenience and playing between essential tasks. Portable gaming is VASTLY superior in accomplishing that.
dark @ Mar 21st 2007 2:26PM
He is truly the greatest of all time.
Crono @ Mar 21st 2007 2:35PM
OK, i'm gonna go ahead and call the thread below this one the moron thread. Can we have a less moron thread here?
Or anywhere, for that matter.
David @ Mar 21st 2007 2:36PM
Of course it will not happen. The DS is made well when the PS2 is biult like crap. So millinos of units were sold because older ones broke.
hvnlysoldr @ Mar 21st 2007 2:38PM
duh! Don't mess with Reggie!
required @ Mar 21st 2007 2:40PM
Nope, it will not happen. However portables may outsell stationaries.
Sven @ Mar 21st 2007 2:41PM
2011? Heck, the portable market's close to being more lucrative *now* - the DS + PSP combo usually accounts for 50%+ of the Japanese market (easier to do, since they're only fighting against two matching consoles), they're both still doing rather well in North America and Europe... well, we never see any numbers from Europe so let's ignore them like always and move on. :)
I don't think it's possible to catch up with the PS2, since that thing still sells well and has market penetration in countries where Nintendo doesn't feel comfortable doing business.
dark @ Mar 21st 2007 2:50PM
Hey, crono trigger guy, we don't care what u think. Some of us like moron threads.
HOVA uk @ Mar 21st 2007 2:52PM
yeah, and it's well deserved.. the games on the DS just about beat anything on the PS2..
when Hourglass is out on the DS, that will increase sales again, it makes you think..
Will Nintendo really NEED to release a another handheld.. of course eventually, but i think not for a VERY VERY long time.
Vidikron @ Mar 21st 2007 2:52PM
Kind of a pointless comparison.
Jon @ Mar 21st 2007 2:52PM
When you have people like David posting, it proves Chrono correct. Why need to drag Sony into a thread about the DS? My 2 year old slim PS2 is still going strong as is my launch DS Lite.
Pawsie @ Mar 21st 2007 2:53PM
LOL @ #7
That's basically true.. Oddly I bought two PS2 and two DS's... My PS2 broke and I bought a slimmer one after deciding I would not get a PS3... and for the DS, both of them still work, I was going to sell one to my friend's wife, so her kid can play with it... but I'm debating on getting both pokemon games and selling the other one after I'm finish collecting themall.
Kye @ Mar 21st 2007 2:58PM
Wow
Can't believe it.
12 posts and no-one has called the "shipped, not sold" card on the PS2 numbers.
Almack64 @ Mar 21st 2007 3:00PM
@12 While I'm not supporting David by any means, he wasn't the one to "drag Sony into a thread" it kinda WAS a part of the post. You know the whole DS could outsell the PS2 thing. Just wanted to clear that up. And he does have a valid point there were a lot of people who bought new PS2's because their old one(s) broke.
Jack of No Trades @ Mar 21st 2007 3:02PM
"shipped, not sold"
Matt Wagner @ Mar 21st 2007 3:08PM
first off, PS2's aren't built like crap. people just treat them like crap. I've had the same PS2 since Christmas the year it came out, i haven't had one problem with it.
next, the whoever said DS games are better then PS2 is nothing more then a fanboy speaking gibberish. i'm choosing to ignore that comment.
more imporantly, i still have my original Gameboy. not one problem, not one replacement, and i still play it. it's hardly fair to even consider comparing handheld sales to console sales, its a completely different experience. handhelds are generally more basic, therefore appealing to a wider demographic, therefore able to sell more units.
the PS2 is still outselling all consoles. the DS has a long way to go to catch the PS2. maybe if PS2's stopped selling or production was stopped would the DS catch it within the next 5 years, but i doubt that will happen.
Blue Sam @ Mar 21st 2007 3:16PM
actually... Japan is winner in electric product in market. :)
Christopher7xii @ Mar 21st 2007 3:16PM
Eh, I've owned two PS2's (one launch, which still works perfect) and a slimline. I've purchased three DS's so far. One launch day, 13 minutes after EB games opened... Then I sold it after Wario Ware came out and I realized the DS had crap for a library and bought a PSP. Then I bought the DS again when Mario Kart Bundle came out because it had a decent library by that point(and finally a WiFi service), alongside Tetris DS. Then I sold that for PS3 funds... Which ended up not happening, and me getting a DS Lite with that money. I also sold my PSP during the point saving for a PS3, also to rebuy that just in February 07 for upcoming games, as well as PS1 emulation =)
So three DS', Two PSPs, two PS2s, and one Xbox 360. None of my systems have broken on me yet. I can guarantee you that I'm not the only one to sell their DS due to the drought, only to rebuy it later when there were more games, and then again when the DS Lite came out. So many DS' sold in the states I'm sure are to the same owner.
Regardless of reason, I could totally see the DS outselling the PS2 during it's lifetime. Reason? One PS2 can serve multiple owners, but in order for your kids to play the DS together, you need multiple systems. So instead of just having one per family, you get one per user. Just wait for Phantom Hourglass, and Pokemon Diamond/Pearl. Then Dragon Quest 9. Sales are going to be absolutely ridiculous on the DS.
bootsielon @ Mar 21st 2007 3:23PM
Handhelds have potential, but it's still a long way to go. The PS2 still has a long life, it might even reach 150 million consoles. So, if the DS manages to sell another 110 million units... I really doubt it will if they release a successor to the DS. I think consoles sell more than portables when they are old, since portables are relatively cheaper when they are launched, compared to consoles, especially now.
And yes Crono, we can. You just need to remain without commenting again.
Jon @ Mar 21st 2007 3:26PM
As someone who treats his stuff well, nothing I have owned has yet to break. And that includes the:
PS1, Dreamcast, PS2 slim, DS, Japanese launch DS Lite (though the hinge did crack recently), NES, SNES
I believe my stupid HTC phones breaks more often than consoles.
And Christopher does make a valid point. Me and my girlfriend can share the PS2 in our flat, whereas we couldn't share our portables.
john @ Mar 21st 2007 3:36PM
"next, the whoever said DS games are better then PS2 is nothing more then a fanboy speaking gibberish. i'm choosing to ignore that comment."
I love it when people contradict themselves within a single sentence.
Kizzle @ Mar 21st 2007 3:39PM
Hey, I love the DS, but it's not anything but a footnote if/when it surpasses the PS2. Consoles and handhelds are apples and oranges.
"Don't mess with Reggie?" Why not? Reggie is a pussy. Peter Moore would roast him in 30 seconds. He's a former soccer hooligan, for god's sake. Reggie is just an orc-faced geek.
Joni @ Mar 21st 2007 3:45PM
Won't happen, Nintendo will kill of the DS before that happens. PS2 will reach at least 125 million (even the PS1 managed to sell another 10 million after the PS2 launch and it was only discontinued in 2005) and will stay on the market until 2010. So the DS needs to sell another 80 million before Nintendo pulls out the next handheld card. How long did the GBA last? It only lasted 4 years despite selling 75 million. The Color reached 45 million in three years before it was dumped.
Slaziman @ Mar 21st 2007 3:47PM
GBA is still being made.
denney @ Mar 21st 2007 3:49PM
Is it just me or did the gameboy not sell more than the PS2?
F1ghter @ Mar 21st 2007 3:52PM
Let's see, the DS has been out for 29 months total (since November 21, 2004). It has sold 36.8 million units according to Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_DS). That makes 1.27 million units per month since its release.
Assuming a linear rate of sales, it would take the DS 65.5 months to sell 120 million. That's five and a half years. It's doable, but it doesn't seem terribly likely, unless Pokemon, DQIX and Phantom Hourglass give it a *huge* sales boost.
Yoshi Likes Boys @ Mar 21st 2007 3:53PM
Sven nailed it on the head, overcoming the PS2 is probably not realistic at this point, especially since it is going to remain a viable budget choice for the time being barring a complete change in mission from Microsoft, and will remain an attractive "cheaper" development option for newer games.
However, costs do come into consideration, and the DS from a profitability standpoint is untouched, considering that your 5-20 man development team CAN put together a hit DS game without much of a budget to speak of. Combined with the platform's tolerance for $30-40 retail game prices, it's quite possible to make huge coin on those little cards.
Metro Mapper @ Mar 21st 2007 3:58PM
I thought that the Gameboy had the all time sale record of any system, even the PS2. Does anyone know of the number sold worldwide for every system made?
Slaziman @ Mar 21st 2007 4:03PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_Boy#Sales_and_competition
70 million.
I think it had the fastest selling console record though... :o
32_Footsteps @ Mar 21st 2007 4:09PM
Well, let's look at it rationally.
The DS is about 2.5 years old. How do the sales of the DS compare to the sales of the PS2 for this point in the latter's lifetime (which would be around the middle of 2003)? That right there is a huge indicator of whether or not it's possible for the DS to overtake all as the top-selling game platform.
Also, while the point about PS2 sales being driven by fragile components (hey, my PS2, bought in the first six months of release, also still works, but I know plenty who have burned through two or three units) does have some merit, there are also reasons why DS sales could be driven by multiples.
The simplest example, of course, are those who upgraded from the DS to the DS Lite. Don't know how many did that, but there's at least some who did.
But more important to consider is the "personal toy" factor. In my house, my wife and I only need one of a given console - one PS2, one GC, about to have one Wii, debating one Xbox 360... you ge the idea. However, I've toyed more than once with getting her a DS of her own, because there are DS games she's interested in and I'm busy with my own DS.
There are other similar reasons for households to buy multiple DS units - siblings won't share, something for a parent and child to participate in together (oh, Tetris WiFi, bringing families together)... if anything, there are more reasons for households to buy multiple handheld units than multiple consoles. I would imagine the DS has the inside track in the sales race against a console.
Mr Khan @ Mar 21st 2007 4:18PM
I certainly see this as happening, maybe not the DS beating the PS2 (technically the GBA had only 3.25 years before it was replaced, following that timetable, there should be a successor in February 2008)
But i do see the handheld market overtaking the home console, because think about it, if this whole casual games craze continues (it might just be the natural evolution of games, might be a fad, i'm not sure)
Ali @ Mar 21st 2007 4:33PM
I used to have a gamewatch, it looked almost the same as a DS
Ins0mn1ac @ Mar 21st 2007 4:35PM
It very well could surpass, but I think the DS needs a little more in draw in harder gamers.
Cooking Mama and Mario does not a console sell...
LongshotX @ Mar 21st 2007 5:01PM
Stop with the shipped not sold crap. When the product is shipped to a retailer, it has already been sold. The retailer is the one who buys the merchandise wholesale FIRST. Then you buy it and the retailer makes a profit. So effectively they are basically the same.
lessbiasedthanmost @ Mar 21st 2007 5:01PM
My first PS2 broke, to this day I still blame it on my brother, whose touch has destroyed: a stero(his), an engine for a car(parent's/his/mine), a PS2(mine), a 360(his), an old timey record player(his), and finally a PS2slim(his).
Most evil touch ever, and he's not even my younger brother.
Oh and he's working on killing a computer....
REUYL @ Mar 21st 2007 5:24PM
I used to be a GameBoy kid, but now I'd much rather play games in high-definition with surround sound and the like. Besides, so I ALWAYS have to surround myself with video games?
...Don't answer that.
Aex @ Mar 21st 2007 5:32PM
It all depends on Nintendo. If they decide to keep the DS around and keep supporting it, it could possibly catch up 4 more years. Tho now that they have a form of competition, I doubt the DS will survive that long..
It will is only a matter of time until Nintendo reveals their new Handheld device and this will effectively kill the DS's chance to be the greatest of all time. ( At least Nintendo's recent history would say so.) I give the DS a good 2-3 years more of selling, I dont think it can catch up given how well the PS2 continues to do, and I do think there will be a new handheld generation near the end of that time.
techyted @ Mar 21st 2007 5:49PM
Makes sense to me, I have 3 (Mario, white, & black) and let's see, my dad, my brother, his 2 kids, my other brother, and his wife all got one for Christmas. If you lost count, that is 9 DS's to a family that have never owned any prior portable gaming system. We also love HD gaming, PS3 & 360, but the DS has great games like Brain Age and The New Super Mario Brothers.
josh @ Mar 21st 2007 5:50PM
"the PS2 is still outselling all consoles."
Do you mean total sales over the entire life of teh PS2? Because February's NPD totals show the Wii outsold the PS2 in North America.
http://www.joystiq.com/2007/03/16/february-npd-data-show-ds-wii-on-top/
# Nintendo Wii - 335K
# Sony PS2 - 295K
Evan @ Mar 21st 2007 6:05PM
@32_Footsteps "How do the sales of the DS compare to the sales of the PS2 for this point in the latter's lifetime"
North America: DS - 11.0 million, PS2 - 18.5 million
Japan: DS - 15.8 million, PS2 - 9.2 million
Europe: DS - 10.1 million, PS2 - 5 to 11 million*
Total: DS - 36.9 million, PS2 - 33 to 39 million
(*Based on data from vgcharts.org. For North America and Japan I was able to calculate the numbers for the exact same number of weeks since launch, however Europe's data is by number of years, so I had to estimate.)
@Christopher7xii "So many DS' sold in the states I'm sure are to the same owner."
Someone else bought the DSs that you sold and is playing them. So, the total number is probably pretty representative of the number of DSs in gamers hands.
Vagabond Artist @ Mar 21st 2007 6:30PM
I'm done with at-home console gaming. I just don't have the time to sit at home and game for 40+ hours.
I'm all about the convenience of pick up and play titles and on-the-go gaming.
Now that portable game graphics don't suck this gen, I'm fine being a portable gamer for the rest of my life. It's a good thing the DS came along... I was ready to leave gaming behind forever.
32_Footsteps @ Mar 21st 2007 6:34PM
"Stop with the shipped not sold crap. When the product is shipped to a retailer, it has already been sold. The retailer is the one who buys the merchandise wholesale FIRST. Then you buy it and the retailer makes a profit. So effectively they are basically the same."
I really didn't think I'd have to go over this...
There is a very good reason why "shipped" is vastly different than sold. Two good ones, actually.
First off, if a unit is shipped but not sold, while Sony made money off of it, they won't make money off of the retailer restocking their supply until the units do get sold.
In other words, while Sony makes the same money for right now regardless of shipped or sold, they're about to make even more money if they're sold, because more orders are on their way.
But more importantly, the difference between shipped and sold matters when it comes to software, which as we all know is where the big profits really lie.
Shipped numbers tell of potential sales of profit-making software - at some point, that number will be the number of users you could sell to. However, the units sold are the numbers you can actually sell to. And the actual customers are much more valuable than the theoretical ones.
Besides, since the sales figures are about fanboy penis-measuring contests, it helps to have information be consistent. I mean, Ninty also makes the profits on the shipped-but-not-sold units, but they only brag about the actual sales. And since Nintendo is a bit silent on how many are shipped, we instead compare the sales of the PS2 (which are easy to figure out).
For other news, thanks, Evan. That is interesting, that the two would be roughly neck-and-neck at this point in their lifespans. I'm now wondering about what the attach rates are... because even if the sales are roughly the same, if the attach rates are higher for the DS, that could reasonably mean that the DS would be a more powerful money-maker than the PS2 - which for those who know about the latter's record on behalf of Sony, is a huge pill to swallow.
Matt @ Mar 21st 2007 6:58PM
But I thought Joystiq said the PSP was going to beat the DS before they launched.
What happen!
Matt @ Mar 21st 2007 9:23PM
No! PSP is going to totally kick the DS's ass!
Remember that? Remember?
PSP = PS3
DS = Wii
ahatter @ Mar 21st 2007 11:24PM
this will happen easy.
every person i know (including myself) with a DS has atleast 2.
wii888fan @ Mar 21st 2007 11:41PM
DS Phat/DS Lite are outselling PS2 at the same point in its life so far. 25.3mm for both DS units combined vs. 18.7mm for PS2.
Here are the numbers. DS Phat came out in Nov 04. From Nov 04 through Feb 07 (28 months period), 25.3mm DS Phat/DS Lites were sold in US and Japan. PS2 came out Mar 00. During the first 28 months, 18.7mm PS2 consoles were sold in the same two regions.
nothanks @ Mar 21st 2007 11:55PM
The staying factor for any console is the game library. The PS2 has an incredible collection with new games still being made/ported.
If this DS can emulate this for the same stretch of time that the PS2 did, then I think we may see a new winner.
Steve @ Mar 22nd 2007 9:09AM
Cole also suggested that handhelds could ultimately outsell consoles by 2011 lead by the dual-screener.
===============================================
I hope not! I certainly hope that by 2011 Nintendo's next gen DS will have been on the market for a couple years.
Metaphyzxx @ Mar 22nd 2007 10:53AM
It's possible, considering there are 3 in my house now, and my wife keeps taking someone or another's (depending on which one is within reach when she leaves for work). So, she gets one soon. And my 2 year old has discovered how to make it go to pictochat... so she'll probably want one soon enough...