Move along, folks. There's nothing to see here.
Reacting to yesterday's "leak" of PlayStation 3 sales data, which indicated an 82% drop during the week following the UK launch, Chart-Track's Dorian Bloch expresses that we really shouldn't put much that weight in the information his company works so hard to track and calculate. "A figure of an 82% drop has leaked out but that alone means nothing," he tells Next-Generation. "Given how much pent up demand there was for PS3 and given the sophistication of pre-order systems now, it really doesn't mean anything."
Really? Perhaps we read it all wrong then, because the information allowed us to derive some context and conclude that the PS3 had sold an estimated 54% of its available stock (excluding supplemental post-launch shipments) in its second week, down from the 75% in week one. Coupling that with the significant drop in sales indicates, at the very least, that PS3 supply is by far exceeding demand. Furthermore, we estimated that the PS3 had accordingly sold 29,700 systems for the week, a figure which may be compared to the average number of PS3s sold in the last 4 weeks in doubly populated Japan -- approximately 29,552. All that from a single statistic that doesn't mean anything!
Bloch makes a better point when he notes that comparing the PS3 launch to that of the Xbox 360 or the Wii is difficult, considering the shortages that entangled both competing systems during their arrivals. He goes on to say that, "Judging a console based on nine days on sale is just crazy. It doesn't make any sense." Though we suspect the "sellout = success" crowd may be acting unfairly towards the PS3, it certainly isn't enough to warrant downplaying a very significant sales statistic.
What doesn't make any sense? Try the fact that someone like Bloch feels compelled to do damage control while Sony remains tight-lipped.
Reader Comments (30)
Posted: Apr 4th 2007 8:08PM (Unverified) said
does anyone have the number of vendors selling PS3's? I'm assuming that its a fairly large number. so under 25,000 units remaining is effectively a sellout.
if there is only 1 unit left in each store, that means they provided the perfect amount of stock. Which is what every company tries to do, have units in stock, but not piles.
Reply
if there is only 1 unit left in each store, that means they provided the perfect amount of stock. Which is what every company tries to do, have units in stock, but not piles.
Posted: Apr 4th 2007 8:10PM (Unverified) said
"A figure of an 82% drop has leaked out but that alone means nothing," he tells Next-Generation. "Given how much pent up demand there was for PS3 and given the sophistication of pre-order systems now, it really doesn't mean anything."
Whew! That's a relief! I couldn't sleep last night because of the supposed "drop" in PS3 sales over in the UK.
Reply
Whew! That's a relief! I couldn't sleep last night because of the supposed "drop" in PS3 sales over in the UK.
Posted: Apr 4th 2007 8:12PM (Unverified) said
That picture- lol!
Anyway, if those numbers hold, it seems that the PS3 would be selling around 30K a week in Japan, USA and UK? Interesting consistency.....
(steps aside so the fanboys may flame away)
Reply
Anyway, if those numbers hold, it seems that the PS3 would be selling around 30K a week in Japan, USA and UK? Interesting consistency.....
(steps aside so the fanboys may flame away)
Posted: Apr 4th 2007 8:11PM (Unverified) said
Well, Sony satisfied most of their immediate demand for the system.
Next come the people who didn't want to deal with the hassle of the launch, and gradually, the stragglers will come and buy the system as they deem it a worthy purchase.
That's really all there is to any product release.
Reply
Next come the people who didn't want to deal with the hassle of the launch, and gradually, the stragglers will come and buy the system as they deem it a worthy purchase.
That's really all there is to any product release.
Posted: Apr 4th 2007 8:18PM (Unverified) said
"2. does anyone have the number of vendors selling PS3's? I'm assuming that its a fairly large number. so under 25,000 units remaining is effectively a sellout.
if there is only 1 unit left in each store, that means they provided the perfect amount of stock. Which is what every company tries to do, have units in stock, but not piles."
According to the story, Sony has sold 54% of their stock. I know you just pulled numbers out of nowhere, but they're clearly wrong. If they were right, there would be about 29k retailers in the UK and they would have each received 2 PS3s.
Reply
if there is only 1 unit left in each store, that means they provided the perfect amount of stock. Which is what every company tries to do, have units in stock, but not piles."
According to the story, Sony has sold 54% of their stock. I know you just pulled numbers out of nowhere, but they're clearly wrong. If they were right, there would be about 29k retailers in the UK and they would have each received 2 PS3s.
Posted: Apr 4th 2007 8:25PM (Unverified) said
WHsmith has reduced its ps3s to £399 for this week.I also spotted my first pre-owned one- note that ive NEVER seen a pre-owned wii, and some stores are still urging people to pre-order to get one.
a price reduction? only a week after launch? in MY high street stores? Its more likley than you think...
Reply
a price reduction? only a week after launch? in MY high street stores? Its more likley than you think...
Posted: Apr 4th 2007 8:28PM (Unverified) said
My local GAME dropped PS3 games to 39 quid today. Not sure if this is forever, or a nationwide thing. Kinda funny really.
Reply
Posted: Apr 4th 2007 8:29PM (Unverified) said
It doesn't mean anything. After the launch, sales dropped down to what they are everywhere else... Citing high percentages of drops just make it seem worse than it really is.
Don't get me wrong, it's not "good" but it shouldn't surprise anyone. Did you think they were going to sell 160,000 every week? This is the PS3, not the DS :)
Reply
Don't get me wrong, it's not "good" but it shouldn't surprise anyone. Did you think they were going to sell 160,000 every week? This is the PS3, not the DS :)
Posted: Apr 4th 2007 8:47PM (Unverified) said
@ #7 grog
the 54% is of what was remaining 200k-150k(75%)=50k (week 1) 50k-25k=25k (week 2)
that means there was about 25k units left in store roughly. and yes I pulled the retailer number out of my ass, but I don't live in the UK and have no idea how many stores there are that sell PS3's, but I assume there must be at least 10-20 thousand.
Reply
the 54% is of what was remaining 200k-150k(75%)=50k (week 1) 50k-25k=25k (week 2)
that means there was about 25k units left in store roughly. and yes I pulled the retailer number out of my ass, but I don't live in the UK and have no idea how many stores there are that sell PS3's, but I assume there must be at least 10-20 thousand.
Posted: Apr 4th 2007 8:55PM (Unverified) said
So in 9 days, they sold roughly 88% of their initial stock?
I think "Coupling that with the significant drop in sales indicates, at the very least, that PS3 supply is by far exceeding demand." is overstating an excess of supply... Sounds like they were pretty close to spot on to me, if only 12% of the initial stock remains.
Reply
I think "Coupling that with the significant drop in sales indicates, at the very least, that PS3 supply is by far exceeding demand." is overstating an excess of supply... Sounds like they were pretty close to spot on to me, if only 12% of the initial stock remains.
Posted: Apr 4th 2007 9:31PM (Unverified) said
He's right. The massive first week sales were a result of the console being held back about 4-5 months. To expect them to maintain that sales rate would be silly.
Reply
Posted: Apr 4th 2007 9:34PM Starcade said
Of course demand drops off after initial release-- (and the key WORD here is) eventually. But so soon?
Wasn't the Xbox 360 and Wii sold out for a while?
And to have such a significant drop in demand is worth noting.
The issue here is price.
Basically the early adopters were satisfied. Now Sony needs to sell everyone else.
Reply
Wasn't the Xbox 360 and Wii sold out for a while?
And to have such a significant drop in demand is worth noting.
The issue here is price.
Basically the early adopters were satisfied. Now Sony needs to sell everyone else.
Posted: Apr 4th 2007 9:42PM Vordus said
By the looks of things though, they're nowhere near selling out. UK:R (biased source, I know, but still a source) have lots of pictures of Argos stock-checkers nationwide that average at about 45 left per store. And apparently there's a glut of over 300 in Virgin in some place called the Arndale centre.
Meanwhile this week, the PS3 was outsold by Wii Play on Amazon.co.uk, and by the Wii itself (which seldom exists) on Play.com.
While yes, these figures are only to be expected, they don't look healthy, and are definitely not anywhere near a sell-out.
Reply
Meanwhile this week, the PS3 was outsold by Wii Play on Amazon.co.uk, and by the Wii itself (which seldom exists) on Play.com.
While yes, these figures are only to be expected, they don't look healthy, and are definitely not anywhere near a sell-out.
Posted: Apr 4th 2007 9:47PM LaughingTarget said
There are roughly 16,000 stores in the United States that sell video game products (figured out by adding up the stores of all major retailers plus adding a couple thousand to handle any local jobs, probably way too high though). Using advanced mathematical statistics (dividing the US population by the UK population), I will guess that the UK has around 3,200 stores that sell video game products.
This means each store, assuming they all have the same allocation and sold the same number, has around 8 unsold units in them. Not too shabby.
Reply
This means each store, assuming they all have the same allocation and sold the same number, has around 8 unsold units in them. Not too shabby.
Posted: Apr 4th 2007 9:53PM LaughingTarget said
Matt Wagner -
Might want to work on your reading comprehension skills, this is positive news. Please note the part saying the UK is selling more per week than Japan, which has twice the population.
Reply
Might want to work on your reading comprehension skills, this is positive news. Please note the part saying the UK is selling more per week than Japan, which has twice the population.
Posted: Apr 4th 2007 10:10PM (Unverified) said
I still want to know; what do other consoles normally sell on a weekly basis in the UK? We can spin this however we want, but without those numbers to compare to it's pretty hard to put the weekly numbers in perspective that makes sense.
Reply
Posted: Apr 4th 2007 10:53PM (Unverified) said
I agree with Mccomber, what are the other console sales for the same time period? Come on, the same sources you got the PS3 numbers are the same for the competition. Why are they holding this info back?
You can say shortage of 360 and wii all you want. That hurts both systems. Not make them iconic. People get impatient and take their money elsewhere.
Reply
You can say shortage of 360 and wii all you want. That hurts both systems. Not make them iconic. People get impatient and take their money elsewhere.
Posted: Apr 4th 2007 11:11PM (Unverified) said
Did the sale all the VCRs in the UK to because if they did I'm going to lose so much sleep...
Reply
Posted: Apr 5th 2007 12:06AM Ludwig Kietzmann said
Posted: Apr 5th 2007 12:49AM (Unverified) said
A few points:
1) Remember the headline figures of x consoles sold does not include any returns. One look at the number of PS3 auctions on ebay that didn't make the list price of the console will give you an indication this number could be fairly high.
2) This 'second week' doesn't actually start a week after launch. It was for week ending the 1st of April with the console launched on the 23rd of March. That in turn means you've still got the tail end of the launch on the Monday included in the figures.
3) There is a LOT of stock around and what I can see in-store and on-line I'd suggest that actual demand for the remaining units is not good. As someone mentioned above WH Smiths (a major high street retailer though not a specialist game or media store) has reduced the console to £399 for a week. Virtually all of the major game stores have bundles which actually save more than £5 over list price. On-line deals are even better with Play.com offering the console, a HDMI cable and a copy of Click on Blu-Ray for £399.99. These are not the sort of deals you'd expect for a console that's not even two weeks old in this country, in fact I honestly can't remember the last time I saw this level of discounting so early.
4) There seems to be very little hype with the public. Again, this is based on circumstantial evidence at best but over the last week I've heard at least a dozen conversations which basically came down to "not a chance in hell until they drop the price by a lot". For a Playstation product to be getting that sort of public reaction in the UK really is remarkable as it's a very, very strong brand these days.
Reply
1) Remember the headline figures of x consoles sold does not include any returns. One look at the number of PS3 auctions on ebay that didn't make the list price of the console will give you an indication this number could be fairly high.
2) This 'second week' doesn't actually start a week after launch. It was for week ending the 1st of April with the console launched on the 23rd of March. That in turn means you've still got the tail end of the launch on the Monday included in the figures.
3) There is a LOT of stock around and what I can see in-store and on-line I'd suggest that actual demand for the remaining units is not good. As someone mentioned above WH Smiths (a major high street retailer though not a specialist game or media store) has reduced the console to £399 for a week. Virtually all of the major game stores have bundles which actually save more than £5 over list price. On-line deals are even better with Play.com offering the console, a HDMI cable and a copy of Click on Blu-Ray for £399.99. These are not the sort of deals you'd expect for a console that's not even two weeks old in this country, in fact I honestly can't remember the last time I saw this level of discounting so early.
4) There seems to be very little hype with the public. Again, this is based on circumstantial evidence at best but over the last week I've heard at least a dozen conversations which basically came down to "not a chance in hell until they drop the price by a lot". For a Playstation product to be getting that sort of public reaction in the UK really is remarkable as it's a very, very strong brand these days.
Posted: Apr 5th 2007 4:09AM MNeko said
Chart Track stinks like yesterday's diapers. They were so quick to crow about the PS3 launch, when the system was breaking sales records (or so they claimed), and now that things aren't looking so sunny, their figures are meaningless? I'm starting to think that ALL their figures are meaningless.
JR
Reply
JR
Posted: Apr 5th 2007 7:29AM (Unverified) said
No doubt sales will pick up again though. It can only mean good things
Reply
Posted: Apr 5th 2007 12:35PM duerra said
@28, Metalmurphy:
You're forgetting that the only reason the Wii is only selling 60-70k/week in Japan is because Nintendo hasn't been able to keep up with the demand and are consistently selling out every week. Last week I called 10 shops local to San Mateo, CA, and *zero* had Wii's in stock, and *all* had PS3's in stock.
I'll repeat that:
Last week I called 10 shops local to San Mateo, CA, and *zero* had Wii's in stock, and *all* had PS3's in stock.
Reply
You're forgetting that the only reason the Wii is only selling 60-70k/week in Japan is because Nintendo hasn't been able to keep up with the demand and are consistently selling out every week. Last week I called 10 shops local to San Mateo, CA, and *zero* had Wii's in stock, and *all* had PS3's in stock.
I'll repeat that:
Last week I called 10 shops local to San Mateo, CA, and *zero* had Wii's in stock, and *all* had PS3's in stock.
Posted: Apr 5th 2007 4:26PM (Unverified) said
Check out these charts on the console wars: http://www.thesimexchange.com/consoles.php
Notice how the PS3 prediction plunged just as the 82% drop in sales news emerged. These forecasts are probably some of the best because they are based on prediction market trading and not analyst analysis.
Reply
Notice how the PS3 prediction plunged just as the 82% drop in sales news emerged. These forecasts are probably some of the best because they are based on prediction market trading and not analyst analysis.
Sorry, you must be logged in to leave a comment.
Featured Stories
The most popular posts
in the last 7 days
- Vita 'UMD Passport' won't be offered in US 219 comments
- Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning review: A tempting fate 152 comments
- David Jaffe leaves Eat Sleep Play, layoffs hit developer [Update] 107 comments
- Don't call it a remake: Final Fantasy X is a 'remaster,' to be clear 95 comments
- Battleship movie adapted into FPS by Double Helix 93 comments







