Wii shortages may continue into 2009, says time traveling analyst

by Christopher Grant { Apr 25th 2007 at 11:03AM }

Listen:

Billy Pidgeon has come unstuck in time. The IDC analyst has told Home Media Magazine, "I believe the Wii will continue strong growth although supply continues to be a problem ... I don't believe supply will meet demand for the Wii until 2009." For a time traveling analyst, these dates far into the future may seem trivial but for those of us stuck in time, 2009 represents a new epoch, a limitless new technological age marked by an uncommon proliferation of flying cars, talking pets, and a curious lack of waggle-enabled game consoles.

The remainder of the article recaps the March NPD numbers ( ... was that last week ago already? We're spastic in time), but Pidgeon's comments stand out like the words of a weary man who's been to the future and knows the secrets it holds. So, can Nintendo possibly fail to meet Wii demand for another 20 months, Sunday's shipment be damned?

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

Plaid Ninja @ Apr 25th 2007 11:09AM

Is 2009 when we'll start seeing more than a trickle of new titles for the Wii too?

Jack of No Trades @ Apr 25th 2007 11:10AM

This is stupid shit! How can Sony manufacture a PS3 faster than Nintendo can a Wii when a PS3 has much much more advanced technology? I hate Nintendo Corp.

samfish @ Apr 25th 2007 11:10AM

My inner nerd would very much appreciate it if you told me where that picture came from, Joystiq.

Anyway, if Nintendo can't get the Wii on shelves by the end of the year, people wouldn't even care about it anymore.
I can see how it might not always be in stock, a la the DS, but SHORTAGES will just will it.

Jeff @ Apr 25th 2007 11:12AM

If Nintendo can't manage to pump out 250,000 systems a month, then they need to buy a few more factories. I mean, this is a pretty average number in the console world.

I think we're clearly into the realm of "artificially induced shortage" here.

rfom @ Apr 25th 2007 11:16AM

Doesnt it seem like nobody would emerge a clear victor in this gen simply because the advanced tech makes it impossible to raise production fast. For instance 360 / PS3 sales have been not more than 400-500,000 a month in first half 2007. SO the likley capacity is less than a million? So, suppose now that demand spikes - how are these guys going to match it? At most they could make 7-8 million in the second half, as the deluge of games comes in (about 15 AAA titles is my guess). And even if the other has lower demand - say just 4 million - you still cant build a big lead. Interesting situation.

You wonder if Nintendo themselves are unsure about whether they can maintain sales? otherwise no reason for not raising capacity.

C. Grant @ Apr 25th 2007 11:16AM

Ask and ye shall receive, samfish.
http://travel.howstuffworks.com/time-travel4.htm

AirIntake @ Apr 25th 2007 11:19AM

I've still not seen one anywhere. I probably would have bought one too, with all the early hype. However now that everything's cooled down a bit from launch, I just can't justify buying one with the current and upcoming games that I've seen.

student @ Apr 25th 2007 11:23AM

Jeff,
Wii is coming out 250k per month, see the March NPD.

sheppy @ Apr 25th 2007 11:24AM

I can say supply is getting slightly better. After all, when I went into CC on Sunday at noon to buy my copy of Pokemon Diamond, they still had a couple units left. They didn't last too long as both wound up in the same slow moving line as myself but being able to find one two hours after opening does indicate an improvement.

Dolla Dolla @ Apr 25th 2007 11:25AM

Some of these posters never fail to amuse.

@Jack
I highly doubt there will be continued shortages until 2009. This is an analyst. The first four letters should be enough to make you laugh this off. By the way, would you happen to know how many PS3's Sony manufactures a month? Just a question, cause I have no clue.

@Jeff
250,000 a month? If that's all they pumped out, then hell yeah there'd be shortages till 2009. Try at least 1 million Wiis a month distributed between 3 major terrorities, with production ramping up to a supposed 1.2-1.3 million a month this spring/summer, and probably 2 million a month before the christmas season.

All Wii haters should be happy about this, no? If Nintendo can't produce enough Wiis to meet demand, that's their loss, and a very big one. It will be a monumental mistake not to saturate the market with Wiis before the holiday season.

Jamesonite @ Apr 25th 2007 12:23PM

Well Nintendo isn't a large corporation like Sony or Microsoft. Nintendo has shipped something close to 7 Million units in less than 6 months. It doesn't sound like much of a shortage to me, but rather huge demand. I still have trouble finding Wii accessories.

Prof_Chaos @ Apr 25th 2007 11:30AM

Christopher Grant, that was great. very good use of Kurt Vonnegut. I had to read that twice to make sure it wasn't a joke article.

What I find disturbing is that most stores I talk to have no idea when stock might be coming in. I've been trying to find one for my boss for a while now and I just keep missing it.

Nino @ Apr 25th 2007 11:30AM

Win for the Slaughterhouse 5 reference.

BIG Reub @ Apr 25th 2007 11:32AM

Hmmmm. Since no one else is actually going to comment on the actual article or the subsequent posting I go out on a limb here and give it a shot.

The analyst seems a little but wacky because there is no precedent for a console to be low on stock for that long. Even with Nintendo's firm stance on only manufacturing in house it doesn't seem very likely.

Please go back to boasting about your favorite console or trashing your least favorite. It's the only reason I read this blog.

Jack of No Trades @ Apr 25th 2007 11:33AM

Hyperspace: A Scientific Odyssey Through Parallel Universes, Time Warps, and the Tenth Dimension

I like the pic. If your interested in hyperspace
& string theory read the book above. We live in a world flowing with religous ignorance. Science is the key.

Sorry to offend anyone.

samfish @ Apr 25th 2007 11:33AM

Thank you!

Aprime @ Apr 25th 2007 11:34AM

Foxconn and Nintendo need to talk, lol.

C. Grant @ Apr 25th 2007 11:34AM

BIG Reub: Awww, I thought you read us for our Kurt Vonnegut references. ;)

sheppy @ Apr 25th 2007 11:35AM

"Sorry to offend anyone."

You're like the kid who throws rocks at the Polar Bears in the Zoo, aren't you?

Jack of No Trades @ Apr 25th 2007 11:44AM

No, im more like the guy that snuck in a pint of jack, drunk off his ass, messind with the monkeys.

Dolla Dolla @ Apr 25th 2007 11:59AM

TMI, Jack ... TMI.

majortom1981 @ Apr 25th 2007 1:39PM

i love nintendo but i cant beleive that there will be that big of a demand till 2009. You know how many systems sold that would be if that happens?

I just dont think that would happen.

Unless Super smash brothers has online and is even better then melee and a wii sports 2 comes out that is even better then the first with online play.

If those two things happen then I can see it but I doubt it.

BIG Reub @ Apr 25th 2007 12:26PM

Well C. (is "C" too informal? If it is, that's ok, you'll get over it.) I read the blog because it's actually well written, funny, and the jackassery is kept to a minimum. I refresh the comments 94 times an hours to make up for this missing jackassery.

peko @ Apr 25th 2007 12:35PM

Wii Sports will lose it appeal sometime, right?

Then there will be a Wii Health Pack, or Wii Music, or Wii Sports 2..

Don't fear, gamers, there will be some games for you too.

But Wii Sports Console will keep selling more than you can understand.

maylon @ Apr 25th 2007 12:41PM

Honestly, what drug was shipped with every Wii? Because I didnt get mine. I got pretty damned bored with it after about an hour. I think everyone has lost their minds.

redspear @ Apr 25th 2007 12:57PM

@Jack

"How can Sony manufacture a PS3 faster than Nintendo can a Wii when a PS3 has much much more advanced technology?"

The answer its not. No Console has ever sold as fast the Wii has in the US. The Wii has sold in 5 months what it took the PS2 6 months to sell. It is the second fastest selling system in Japan right behind the PS2 and unlike the PS2 it launched in all three territories at once. Worldwide no system has ever sold as fast. So obviously they are not producing them slower than the PS3. One problem is that Nintendo like most good companies do not like to overproduce stock and this has to be figured months before hand. If someone told Nintnedo they could have sold 10 million units in 5 months even Nintendo would have sent them to the funny farm. 6 million in 5 months is pretty good.

Foxconn is too busy trying to produce extra PS3s for their 'supply constrained' issues to produce wiis(read more money per PS3 than the Wiis) So nntendo needs a new manufactoring partner.

x876543 @ Apr 25th 2007 1:12PM

Played Wii this weekend with GF and it was Raving Rabbids, doing the dancing bunny games. Shit I was losing my mind at how bad I sucked since I stopped playing the game over 2 months ago. Still loads of fun.

C. Grant @ Apr 25th 2007 2:14PM

BIG Reub: Touche! We made sure to eff up that Excite Truck thing this morning so you can get your balanced diet of jackassery too! :P

redspear @ Apr 25th 2007 2:42PM

majortorm,

yes but with Wii Health coming out this year. I expect that to be a major system seller(even though I think it wil be a fad it worked for Brain Age)

omaribrooks @ Apr 25th 2007 2:58PM

This is an artificial shortage engineered by Nintendo. A massive influx of units will "appear" around the holiday shopping season and not before. Their strategy is transparent, it's not even funny. Though I can't say its a bad from a marketing perspective...

BloodyDuck @ Apr 25th 2007 3:15PM

I don't buy this. If Nintendo can't figure out how to build capacity over the next two years, then it's got enormous problems. I'm thinking the analyst is just making this up as he goes along.

Omaribrooks - it makes absolutely no sense for Nintendo to restrict supply any longer. There's no reason to withhold consoles except - arguably - to build hype and boost future sales. But Nintendo's already got hype and it can't boost future sales if it's not willing to sell anything. So there's no benefit and it's costing them $50 per console in profit and countless dollars from the games they're not selling. That argument makes little sense.

-Geoff
http://www.alinktothefuture.com

Earl @ Apr 25th 2007 3:44PM

I guess no one understands how difficult selling to a worldwide market is. The demand is huge (6 million in about 4-5 months?) and I still don't buy the "artificial shortage" crap. Some people are just in denial over Nintendo's success with the Wii. Just like I was in denial over the DS when it first came out. Next thing you know, I sold my PSP and got a DS and am loving it.

Alex @ Apr 25th 2007 6:19PM

Can't be truth, by 2009, SSBB, Metroid Prime 3, Mario, and probably another Zelda will be out and with wii shortages, initial sales of those games will suffer from that, and all companies care about the instant coverage their game get if they're number 1 on the charts

Alex @ Apr 25th 2007 6:20PM

@ Earl, we never hear about DS shortages though.

Judd @ Apr 25th 2007 6:39PM

RIP Kurt Vonnegut

Luke @ Apr 25th 2007 6:44PM

If Nintendo would of released Metroid Prime 3 with the Wii at launch then there'd be even more demand for the console. But I'm glad they delayed it because if they made a hole new graphic engine for the game like iv been hearing then hopefully the Wii can really show how much horsepower it has!

Alex @ Apr 25th 2007 7:27PM

The graphics before were satisfactory enough. I hope retro studios have been focusing moreso on vitalizing the franchise more, it needs more action.

dsub @ Apr 25th 2007 9:04PM

this is without question an artificially induced shortage.

The Wii is made up of mostly the same parts that were included in the gamecube. Everything else is readily available, bluetooth, wifi, dvd drive....there is no reason why Nintendo shouldn't be able to pump out 1,000,000 Wii's per month, let alone 250,000.

Nintendo is full of it. Yet everyone still continues to do EXACTLY what they want them to do. Wait overnight for shipments, tell everyone how hard it was to get a Wii, etc. etc.

All the sudden the Wii becomes a hot commodity. This coupled with the fact that Super Paper Mario was the first solid game to come out for Wii since Zelda are only the beginning of why Nintendo is artificially inflating demand for the Wii. The Wii two best titles are previously designed-to-be gamecube titles, and shortages are "expected to last until 2009"

My ass. Shortages shouldn't even have lasted this long. MS is almost selling equal to the Wii on a monthly basis and they don't have any problems keeping 360's on shelves. Hell, they've even been able to manufacture 3 separate SKU's vs. Nintendo's one.

It's all bullshit. I'm not saying no one wants the Wii, they undoubtedly do, but Nintendo is making smaller portions of the Wii on purpose. Or they are merely stockpiling them in some warehouse somewhere.

It's plain and simple. PS3 gets dogged for sitting on store shelves...all the sudden everyone calls it a failure.

Nintendo is worried that same will happen to the Wii. End of Story.

dsub @ Apr 25th 2007 9:05PM

Alex is right. DS sales are still through the roof worldwide, yet they are able to be found everywhere now.

Shade @ Apr 25th 2007 11:12PM

Artificial shortage? Umm. OK. It's a publicly traded company. That means it has to file quarterly reports. Would you want to try to explain to shareholders why you are paying (Yes paying) for warehouse space to store a product you could sell today? I wouldn't. This is the age of JIT delivery. Warehousing is bad. Stuff goes from factory, to transport, to store.

You'd have a hard time justifying even setting aside 5% of production for a Christmas reserve... So long as shareholders care about their quarterlies and space costs money.

The same could be said for not ramping up production. The last two home consoles Nintendo sold didn't do so well. Fallow production also costs money. If hindsight were 20 / 20 I'm sure Nintendo would be happy to have more production as they make a profit per console. While an oversupply would be bad, coming in just a hair under demand is good for PR and not having to price chop. (Right now Nintendo is more than a 'hair under demand. The word 'scarcity' comes to mind. Heck, they could probably jack the MSRP by another $25 USD and not see a change.)

Cuja @ Apr 26th 2007 12:42AM

Honestly, I don't think the Wii will see the light of day 2009.

JBDragon @ Apr 26th 2007 2:20AM

I was thinking of buying a Wii a while back, now I really could care less about it. I now have NO plans to buy it.

DrunkenKender @ Apr 26th 2007 9:39AM

@38
People aren't merely dogging the PS3 due to an overabundance of consoles sitting in stores. Have you looked at the sales figures? Compare the PS3 selling over 3 million consoles as of April '07 to the Wii's 6.5 million+ and the 360's 13 million+. The speed at which Wii is selling is pretty impressive, especially considering the shortage.