Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter
has drawn a parallel between the success of a high-definition format and its related game console, believing that Sony will gain an "insurmountable advantage" over Microsoft if movie studios embrace Blu-ray
, and vice-versa for Microsoft to "maintain its first mover advantage."
"Notwithstanding the efforts of the three console manufacturers to deliver compelling exclusive content, we expect the ultimate outcome of the console wars to be decided by the motion picture studios," he said.
Pachter ultimately predicts a close, three-way tie in the market share for this generation of consoles: Sony at 36%, Nintendo at 34% and Microsoft at 30%. In Japan
, he said, Ninendo will have a 51% share through 2011 (is Pachter also a time traveler
?), Sony with 44% and Microsoft presumably with the remaining 5%.
Remember, for every conclusion you may draw from Pachter's report, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of other analysts
with contradictory conclusions. Should either high-definition format come out on top, it still has to contend with its big brother, DVD, for some time now, and therefore its impact on the console wars is minimal at best compared to the system's relative price and software.
[Via PS3 Fanboy