Nintendo says 35 million Wiis by 2012

I think this is a very realistic goal, especially when some of the console's super titles come out (mario galaxy, smash bros, metroid). The Wii has been revolutionary and will gain in popularity as long as the games keep coming.

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Guess I am the odd man out, I think the Wii is a rip off.

In order for that to happen, they are going to need more games. Esp games that take advatage of the Wiis abilities (like they did with the DS).

The difference between gimmick and innovation will be in the quality and number of games.

And im not talking wii sports 2 and Carnival minigames.

The Wii won't make that. I think the DS has the best chance to achieve this btw.

If I were to predict (with no base, obviously) I would put it more around 27 million by 2012. And I agree with VampireHunter Z that the DS has the best chance to meet 35 mil.

As much as I like the Wii, this is still a pretty big goal to set.

But, eh, who knows. It's the fastest-selling console between the last gen and the current gen.

But I really wish developers would focus more on full-fledged, original games for Wii.
A mini-game compilation here or there is okay, as some of them really shine. And these are probably the big buys for the casual market.
And ports aren't so bad, either, as long as the older version was a good game, and they make the Wii version better (i.e. Wii's RE4 vs. Wii's PoP: Rival Swords).

But, overall, I feel there should be more "Mario Galaxies" and less "Mario Parties."

I was mildly bearish on the Wii pre-launch, so now I'm changing tack and saying 40+ million in five years. The console should sell better in its second year than the first, then start tapering off, slowly, and then quickly.

2012 eh? I dunno I have a gut feeling that Microsoft is going to release their next console before 2010. The wii cant lag behind two generations, they might have to upgrade.

http://gamergeddon.com/

Still going with the duct tape joke eh?

Well I guess at least the Wii jokes have died down but I would've thought we'd be over the duct tape gag by now. I guess we should expect RIIIIIDGE RAAAAACER comments as well. I guess I expect more from Joystiq than to run something into the ground.

On a side note, as a proud Nintendo stock owner (since it was at $12/share), I would love for this goal to be realistic but I agree with Jody and VampireHunter about the DS having a stronger chance than the Wii. This is more because of the handheld competition and the nature of that market compared to the competition and nature of the console market where things are much more competitive.

You missed a key phrase in your post. That phrase is "in the United States".

DS has already sold over 40 million worldwide, so it's not like that was difficult.

They've already sold 3 million in America in six months, so if production rate and interest continue along this thread, then sure, 35 million isn't that inconceivable at all. 6 million a year for 6 years is 36 million. Totally possible.

35 million total?

In 6 years?

unless the video game market is due for drastic shrinkage, or the PS3 is headed for another 100 million streak, or something's wrong about this...

To pull that off, they'd need more than half a million every month. I love my Wii, but I don't see it pulling that off. By 2012, that is; eventually, it's entirely possible, but in 5 years, I'm gonna doubt it.

Yeah, I don't think this is a realistic goal. Not for reasons you think. Nintendo makes quality products that last forever. The only reason PS2 sold that many is because everyone had to buy 2-3 consoles when they kept crapping out. I know I did.

Revision: I get my numbers screwed up - 40 million is the very top-end of what I think it could do. So yeah, 35 million is more realistic. If it sells less than 30, I'll eat all of your hats.

I'm no so sure. The Wii is certainly interesting and is selling well right now, but I'm not sure if it'll continue selling well once demand has been satisified or in the long term.

Nintendo says they're selling to new customers, people who haven't bought consoles before.

I say they're selling to existing customers, and to those who are nostalgic because of the Virtual Console.

Also, from those I know who have a Wii, have since expressed disappointment.

And I've heard concerns that software being released on the 360 or PS3 is either not being released on the Wii or 'dumbed down'

The exception being Nintendo which releases some truly excellent games.

Will the Wii has the power to sustain itself? I dunno, but I have doubts.

Hopefully there'll be some good Wiisclusives out by then. I think I'm close to the end of Twilight Princess. When I'm done with that, I guess it's back to Wii Sports Bowling until August.

By 2012, everyone will own an HDTV, Bluray will have won, and the affordable PSThree will be out. I think it's a hard prediction to make. I do agree that the Nintendo DS/lite/nano will sell 35M tho (best system ever).

Doesn't matter though, isn't linear time supposed to end on December 21, 2012 anyway? We're not gonna care about videogames at that point.

"non-typical gamer market". Christ.

". . . Nintendo's American marketing chief George Harrison says that production has increased to meet the consistent demand for the console."

Good, because I keep walking into stores that have plenty of games and accessories, but not even one console, save perhaps one going to waste in a demonstration kiosk.

DeceitfulNinja, I've had my ps2 since 2002 and it's going strong to this day.

Will the Wii's hardware even last until 2012? It's outdated NOW, much less in five years.

@REUYL

So is the DS hardware. In fact, the original Game Boy went a long, long time before the Game Boy Color hit.

11: US only.

13, others: You're judging the systems' future based on a six-month library, when nobody gave it a chance six months ago. The third-parties will go where the money is, and that's the largest install base.

And the strong sales of Wii Play, WarioWare, and Rayman here and Wii Sports in Japan (where it isn't a pack-in) indicates that thye are realling reaching new consumers.

Ds yes, Wii I doubt it. A successor will most likely be out by then.

@Deceitful Ninja. I had a 2003 PS2 and sold it in 2005 for a slimline. Both never broke down. Maybe I treat my consoles well.

This is a prediction for the US only, so I don't think they'll make it quite that far (they've only sold a little over 2 million in the US now).

I'll give them 25 million US, 75 million worldwide by 2012. They lag behind the 360 in the US but win the worldwide war.

This is a prediction for the US only, so I don't think they'll make it quite that far (they've only sold a little over 2 million in the US now).

I'll give them 25 million US, 75 million worldwide by 2012. They'll lag behind the 360 in the US but win the worldwide war.

I believe the Wii with its awesome feature set and extremely great 1st party and 3rd party games will reach and exceed 35 million. I say 45 million by 2012 and 120 million by 2024. Trust me.

I do think this is a realistic estimate being that the Gamecube (which we all know pretty much did poorly) sold around 23 million in 7 years.

erm.....in 2012 this thing will be antique. The graphics are already based on a 5 year old system. In ten years time, the thing will have 10 year old graphical standards....

This thing will age very, very soon.

I might be something of a die hard Nintendo fanboy, but even I can't imagine the Wii lasting until 2012. I always figured Nintendo would at least unveil their new system by winter of 2010 (which would hopefully be at least 5 times as powerful as the PS3).

I can see how the Wii could definitely take the top spot this time around, but I was really expecting this generation of consoles to not last as long.

All that said, #8 hit it square on the head. the Wii will live or die in about 18 months, I'd guess, judging by the kind of games we see.

I still can't see the Wii continuing being a long term success. With more and more HD LCD and plasma TV in the hands of consumers, Wii graphics already look outdated compared to the PS3 and Xbox 360 and the visual gap will only get bigger in 2008. Nintendo hopes that non-gamers don't care about graphics, but most current PS2 owners who haven't yet upgraded to a next gen console will know the difference and care. The PS3 and 360 have games that look and sound next gen, while Wii games are slightly better looking PS2 games with a new controller.

I think the "two Gamecubes duct-taped together" joke actually gives the Wii too much credit. You can simply take a look at the graphics of the Wii games released so far and see that it offers no real improvements over a single Gamecube, much less two. It's a Gamecube with a new controller, nothing more, nothing less. The Wii will end up being third place again behind PS3 and 360. The novelty of the controller will wear off, the graphics will look more and more dated, people will get sick of mini-games, and all of the quality third-party games will be on the true next-gen systems. Once all of the diehard Nintendo fans buy one, the senior homes go back to Judge Judy re-runs, and the hype dies down, Wii sales will drop like a rock.

Why does everyone consistently ignore that a VERY LARGE part of the Wii sales spike lies in the fact that its $250. The 360 is $400 (i dont even count that core CRAP). The PS3 is $600. ALOT of people can relate easier to a 250 price tag than a 400 at this stage in the game console generation.

I don't believe the Wii will continue to blast everyone to hell once the 360 and PS3 see price drops and more games start to come for each.

And history has shown that Nintendo's consistent reliance on the "big franchises" only goes so far. The DS is to me the abnormal case. Its priced well, and is aesthetically pleasing and etc. The wii just doesn't seem to me that its going to do the same super sales as it is now.

@ Craigo

thanks, i read the article (although not the "read" article) and wasn't sure if they meant worldwide or not...

As the new Supreme Chancellor of the United Wii Stand Empire, I believe that Nintendo will continue where it leaves off with the Wii and continue to emphasize gameplay over graphics (which it should). It will not, I repeat, it will not try to directly compete with either Microsoft of Sony in terms of power (Sony may digress and make a moderate upgrade to the PS3 or be stupid and have a PS4 and sell it at a loss and a starting price of roughly $800). I will go as far and say it will be an HD Wii or maybe not. Can't be sure but it will not sell the next console at a loss using expensive bleeding edge technology.

@ Marlos Hill

remember that Wii's price will drop just as fast (or faster) than the competition

When 360 Premium is down to $200

Wii will be $100 or lower

Mr Khan do you agree?

@Mr Khan
Unfortuantly the article states that they have no plans to sell the wii at a lower price. I guess we'll have to see how long that statement stands.

Now I don't hate them like I do SONY, but Nintendo you guys are crazy! The wii already has fucking horrible graphics and mostly corny assed kiddy games, but seriously...2012? I expect them to have put out another system or two by then. Plus as I stated on another post...the mayan calendar ends that year! The world will just cease to exist after that.

hey, I remember when DS was label a "gimmick" and how it would never last past two years with the superior PSP. How'd that turn out?


I remember when Xbox fans when on and on about the quality of the Xbox and how it would dominate. Where were they when Devil May Cry came out, or God of War or Tekken 5, Gran Turismo or any of the stellar games dropped for the PS2?

the point is superior technology has never guaranteed success....ever. Nintendo has done the one thing with Wii that they couldn't do with 64 and GC...they've gotten 3rd parties excited to make games for them. Money talks and bullshit runs the marathon. With the fanbase growing by leaps and bounds for the Wii, expect more third party support. The fact that Nintendo is getting the true sequel to Dragon Quest on DS is serious.

35 milliom by 2012 may be a bit conservative.

As far as people that criticize the Wii for it's graphical performance thus far...I remember the same comments from many people when DS debuted...Let's see what it's hitting for later this year. But the fact remains, Wii is the number console this gen so far, hands down. It's early still but hey, how can 5 million people be wrong hahahaha.

@ Mr. Khan

Id actually say no. Nintendo's had a strong history of REFUSING to drop prices regardless of position. Gamecube and N64 are prime examples. Nintendo historically as a company is interested in maximizing their profit through basic means (obviously) so i don't see them dropping the price much if at all in the next 2-3 years.

They've typically come off Sony-ish in that they've felt no need to drop prices. Remember with GC they decided to offer the Cube with a game and keep the price the same for a long while, then FINALLY dropped the price a while AFTER the xbox had had 2 drops and the PS2 had a drop.

I really see tho that once the 360 and PS3 see their first price drops coupled with the onslaught of "new-gen" games, the gap between the wii and the others will close significantly.

I hate to use the phrase gimmick, but the Wii is starting to come across as a one-trick pony and unlike the 360 or the ps3, it has no "aces" to fall back on like Blu-Ray, HD-DVD, Xbox Live, Playstation Home, Live Camera etc etc etc. We know how reluctant Nintendo is to open up online gaming, and how much of an arm-twist its taken for them to embrace 3rd parties.

Interesting times.

(and before i become flame-ridden i own ALL 3 of these consoles and love them for their own special goodnesses lol)

Strider I could use you in the newly formed United Wii Stand Empire. Will you join me?

@Spitkicker: although adding '-assed' to every possible adjective is not necessarily a bad habit, I would advise using some caution with 'corny'.

No, most people did not buy 2-3 PS2s. Sorry that your system broke, but that's not true of anyone I know, and I have one of the very first runs of PS2s. The reason the PS2 has continued to sell so damn well is because there are still good games being released for it!! The PS2 has had a superior lineup of new games in the past year than any other console - FF12, GoW2, Guitar Hero 2, etc. etc.

This is in SHARP contrast to how Nintendo did things, where they went so far as to DELAY Twilight Princess, originally meant to be a 'cube title, so that people would be compelled to buy it on the Wii. Sony has a proven track record of actually following through on the long lifespan they say their consoles will have, while Nintendo has been doing precisely the opposite. I wouldn't believe the claims that they'd be actively supporting or programming for the Wii in 2012 for one second. They'll *have* to make a graphical upgrade in 3 years since the damn thing already looks so dated, and the popular games that were in development for the Wii will get delayed to be "launch" titles for the new system. But hey, great for Nintendo stock.

On Wii Graphics: Lets wait until RE4, MetPrime3 and Mario Galaxies come out before we judge the Wii's graphics, shall we? Most of the games so far have been bad PS2 ports, when you do bad PS2 ports on the gamecube they look the same and the GC was better than the PS2 in games where devs took the time to tailor the graphics to the system. Most of the games coming out now were planned and programmed before the system became a breakout success. I've said this before but please go look at the PS1's lineup of games in its first 12 months, based solely on those games who could have predicted that system's eventual success?

I love my Xbox when it works (just had to call today to send back my replacement xbox 360 I got in March, same red lights of death killed this one 3 days ago), but the Wii is here to stay. A Wii-HD might be possible, but I doubt Nintendo will try and get back into the graphical arms race with Sony and MS anytime soon.

As everyone else is saying, with the right games, it's certainly possible. Nintendo have to appeal not just to the non-gamers, but also the casual mainstream gamers who previously plumped for the PS2.

@longshot

sure, my 360 membership was revoked when I said the Elite was MS's way of admitting the PS3 is the better deal.

Remember when the DS was a gimmicky, outdated platform that would plummet once people got tired of touch-screens and "old" graphics?

How'd that work out, again?

@unfriendly cat
Well if you advise against it I will just stop right now. Whew, thanks for the heads up! Man well if corny doesn't work for you how about...
lame
boring
childish
cheesy (mmm....delicious!!)
stupid
immature
pre-pubescent
infantile
blah
blah
blah
man this was almost a pointless assed post..doh, did it again.
Hey I passed my grammer classes, I will stop using words like corny as soon as Nintendo stops using words like 'wii' to describe a something you play with. No I will not get off the name thing, it should have stayed the revolution. But I guess they wanted to appeal to the Japanese market of course.

@39- there'd been rumors (starting before the release of the wii, not recently) of a Wii price drop to $200 sometime this year. Course that also coincided with the release of assorted colored Wiis which are nowhere to be seen right now. (Me? I want a black one, maybe a red one.)

Nintendo has no reason right now to drop the price of the wii... they can't make enough to keep stocked at the moment, why would they cut the price?

ohhh...longshot and strider have fun playing with each others wii's!
Damn it Nintendo don't you see how easy that was?