Analysts: Halo 3 will finally make Xbox division profitable

by Ross Miller { May 25th 2007 at 2:29PM }

Four analysts at Goldman-Sachs have predicted that Bungie's Halo 3 will rake in over $170 million in revenue for the quarter. The analysts also assert that the game will put the Xbox division in the black for its first quarter ever with just the first week of sales.

Other notes by the analysts:

The figure is based on estimates that 4.2 million copies shipped in the quarter and an installed user base of 13.2 million by September. That would mean Halo 3 would be purchased by nearly one-third of Xbox 360 owners.
It is assumed that Microsoft keeps 80 percent of the retail price on first-party titles.
Halo 2 sold 7.5 million in its first quarter of release, with 2.38 million on the first day. That amounts to 38 percent of the user base.

Recently Robbie Bach, president of Microsoft's Entertainment & Devices Division, stated that he expects the Xbox to be profitable next year. We have very little doubt that Master Chief can pull the Xbox brand out of the red for at least the first quarter or two, but can Microsoft fill the void with other titles and services once the momentum slows down?

[Via Xbox 360 Fanboy]

Tags: analyst, analysts, bungie, business, chief, halo, halo 3, Halo3, master chief, MasterChief, xbox

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

heyo007 @ May 25th 2007 2:33PM

At $130 for my Legendary Edition of Halo 3, I sure the hell hope it makes Microsoft some money.

JodyAnthony @ May 25th 2007 2:33PM

"THE ALL-IGHTY OLLAR?" oh, I get it!

Walking Contradiction @ May 25th 2007 2:39PM

It will happen. It will sell more than any game in history at release.

deaftly @ May 25th 2007 2:42PM

this is going to set all kinds of records, looks like ms wins the holiday again this year, 360's will fly off the shelves just for this game

XGamerX @ May 25th 2007 2:49PM

I wonder how much it cost them to make this game?

http://gamergeddon.com/

FrankTheCrank @ May 25th 2007 2:57PM

Guys, BUY STOCK NOW!!

MSFT

PUMP AND DUMP BABY!!!

ENRON STYLE!

SuperMario21 @ May 25th 2007 2:59PM

Why would it fly off the shelves this holiday? Everyone who wants this game is going to buy it in September. I personally do not like Halo but I know alot of my friends that have a xbox 360 are planning on getting this game. I am just waiting to buy an xbox 360 when Resident Evil 5 comes out.

theDude @ May 25th 2007 2:59PM

You same fanboys rail on these same analysts when they predict doom and gloom, but when they predict good things, they're friggin' genius'.

Hypocritical buncha...

Kye @ May 25th 2007 3:23PM

What can I say?

When this game releases, I am seriously gona be Microsoft's bitch.

TK00 @ May 25th 2007 3:25PM

Of course it will make 360's sell this Christmas! Most parents wait until for the holidays to buy expensive gifts for their kids, even M rated ones.

Leshrac @ May 25th 2007 3:44PM

#1-

No one's forcing you to buy the $130 Legendary Edition. If you think it's too much, buy the more reasonably priced collector's edition. Since I really could give a shit about a Spartan Helmet or special features, I'll be sticking with the standard edition myself.

-Jeff
http://alinktothefuture.com

Nick James @ May 25th 2007 3:55PM

Oh yes, Halo 3 WILL sell a shitload... and it will help move some consoles, especially Halo 2 fans waiting to buy a 360 just for Halo 3. However, after Halo 3, is there ANY game coming out that will sell like hotcakes? Or move systems on such a wide scale? Where's hte next Gears of War? Grand Theft Auto IV might be able to, but that's on PS3 as well, and fundamentally comes out the same time as Halo 3 anyways, so the effect will be minimal. Unfortunately, after the sales orgasm Halo 3 gives the 360, it's going to be very difficult to keep up the momentum. Predict 360 sales to really level off in 2008... software sales will definitely rise though. So let's hope Microsoft keeps that 80%...

I'd offer a theory on how the Wii and PS3 will not have this problem, but that'd just start a flame war, because everyone on here seems to only ever pick one system to support and abandons all logic when it comes to other ones. Ain't the Internets fun?

See you all on Xbox Live on 9/25.

Mike @ May 25th 2007 4:07PM

There are other games that will move units and sell tons.. Bioshock ,Mass Effect, and GTA4 come to mind. This is a great year to be a 360 owner period.

Jon @ May 25th 2007 4:08PM

Nick have you heard of a few of the following titles for the 360?

Mass Effect
BioShock
Splinter Cell Conviction
GTA 4
Devil May Cry
Command And Conquer 3
Too Human
Fable 2
Half Life 2 - Orange
Blue Dragon

Just to name a few titles that are coming or are already out that is plenty to keep folks busy and satisfied. And who knows what else will be announced for 08 at this years E3.

To disagree with your point the Wii and PS3 have the opposite going for them. The Wii is releasing the Holy Trinity this winter...but then what??? Same old same old...just like the GameCube.

The PS3 won't even have Metal Gear till at least midway through 2008! Besides Grand Theft Auto...the PS3 is severly lacking in any Titles to set it apart.

Chrispy @ May 25th 2007 4:39PM

#4

It may break US and possibly UK sales records for a individual game. note: 'possibly'

But world-wide it aint got a freaking cat in hell's chance, if it aint big in japan ya screwed.

kevin @ May 25th 2007 4:39PM

hm i doubt the installed userbase will be 13 million, is it even 10 million yet.also i think most people who were gettiing halo 3 already bought the xbox 360.

Beaudry @ May 25th 2007 4:42PM

GTA 4 will move systems for M$ in a big, big way. GTA draws a lot of casual gamers like Madden players. 360 will benefit more than PS3 because the 360 is already $200 cheaper.

vidGuy @ May 25th 2007 5:16PM

This is actually a conservative estimate in my mind. When you consider that the majority of 360 owners have purchased the system without more than a few strong titles available on the platform, you should count on a lot of them buying the game that is going to MAKE the system. Then, when you consider that most of the people that have been holding off buying a 360 have been doing so to wait for the game's release, you should count on even more sales.

I'm predicting that Halo 3 will sell 4 million copies its first day of release and will reach 9 million in its first quarter.

That means a whole hell of a lot of money coming MS and Bungie's way.

Mr Khan @ May 25th 2007 5:17PM

360 and Wii both stand to sell like gangbusters

But i thought for a second that they meant it would make the whole division and its history profitable

Profitable for 4th Quarter 2007?

I'd say so, with all the software sales and all the new Live Gold subscriptions that will come with it

I'm pretty sure they're still selling at a loss, but i also think its a minimal loss

saboola @ May 25th 2007 5:31PM

Nick James:

Granted GTA 4 is on both the X360 and PS3, but as far as moving consoles, if someone is buying a console just for GTA 4 I would imagine they would buy the 200 dollars cheaper 360 over the PS3, so in that sense it will indeed move consoles.

propanol @ May 25th 2007 5:54PM

Most people play games out of novelty, which is demonstrated by how sequels to games almost always sell less than the originals. Halo 2 brought multiplayer to the series which made it novel enough in comparison to the original to result in stronger sales, but Halo 3 has nothing novel about it (prettier graphics isn't that novel) and will inevitably sell less than its predecessors.

DeluxE @ May 25th 2007 6:12PM

#21
Why would you say Halo 3 "has nothing novel about it" when no one outside of Microsoft has seen the single player game for any more than 15 seconds?

And I hate to break it to you, but sequels often sell more than original titles... why do you think the industry is flooded with them?

People usualy go with a brand they recognize over an unknown...

heyo007 @ May 25th 2007 6:32PM

#11
Obviously, I have no issue with the price of the legendary since I'm buying it.
I just hope it makes them some money to pay their programmers and not to fund all the "extras" including that helmet.
Calm down on the internet defense backlash. It's not good for your blood pressure.

Rubang B @ May 25th 2007 6:39PM

Both Halos had jokes for single-player campaigns. Multiplayer is where they shined, and they've barely tweaked it, graphically or otherwise. MS/Bungie know they have a hit, so they're scared to change it at all. Halo 3 is basically an expansion pack. I'm not saying there's anything wrong with that, and it's respectable that they're admitting it, but...

I think that all the XBox/FPS fans already got a 360 so they could have Gears of War and Lost Planet to tide them over until Halo 3 comes out. So I think it will sell an assload, but I don't think it will move too many consoles that it hasn't already.

Strider_J @ May 25th 2007 7:30PM

I'm a big Halo player, but I think Microsoft relies too heavily on it.

I'm happy with my 360, but we need more original titles, more original franchises. It's almost as if this system puts out a blockbuster once a year only, leaving the time in between kind of boring.

kingofwale @ May 25th 2007 8:27PM

13.2 install base of Xbox 360??? wow, talk about over estimating right there. Is Microsoft counting the red-ring of death xboxs they got back from customer as well?

I think it will make 170 million in the quarter easily. but I don't think it will sell 4.3 million copies in 1 quarter. Unless every one of the people who owns xbox live buys a Halo 3.

Chicago Mafia @ May 26th 2007 12:16PM

It's a must buy for me. I had a 360 since launch (and the SAME one - never had the ring of death). Still, it's a must have for me. Still trying to decide whether to buy the top-of-the-line or the standard ($60) Halo 3.

bearattack79 @ May 26th 2007 5:13AM

Halo 3 has better graphics, that is actually quite "novel" now if the novelty wears off too quick the game will be a dissapointment.

Not likely goin to happen, this game will be amazing. Im one of the rare few thats getting this game soly for the single player experiance. I live in a remote North Western Ontario community with no high speed connection :( But I do have black bears on my deck from time to time. Yikes!