Pachter: Hey Activision, watch out for Rock Band

by Ludwig Kietzmann { Jun 4th 2007 at 12:01PM }

Unfortunately, we can't attribute Michael Pachter's warning to Activision as a direct quote, as analysts are forbidden from saying "Hey" and are forced to substitute the informal greeting with "pardon me" or "pay attention to me, please." In commenting on Activision's glowing fiscal report and strong NPD presence to GameDaily BIZ, Pachter draws attention to several challenges Activision faces in the coming months. "All things are not perfect in Activision's world," he says.

Pachter predicts that the glaring imperfections (to put it mildly) highlighted by reviewers in the Spider-Man 3 games will curtail sales, and that Call of Duty 4's proposed Iraq setting may prove to leave an equally bad taste in the consumer's mouth. More interestingly, the analyst notes that if Harmonix's EA-published Rock Band is fully playable with just a guitar controller, it will "compete quite favorably with Activision's [Guitar Hero]." He suspects the instrument protagonist genre will remain kind to RedOctane's owner, but adds that "new entrants will impact future growth of the band." Or did he mean brand?

Once the dust settles in the battle of the fake bands, will Pachter still stand by his belief that Activision was right to buy RedOctane over Harmonix?

Tags: Activision, Analyst, Call of Duty, Call of Duty 4, CallOfDuty, CallOfDuty4, Guitar Hero, GuitarHero, Michael Pachter, MichaelPachter, Pachter, Spider-Man 3, Spider-man3

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

EihBeir @ Jun 4th 2007 12:08PM

While he may be right about GH3, he's dead wrong about CoD4. Modern Warfare looks seriously badass Oh, and technically speaking, it's a fictitious war. The one in CoD4, I mean.

sheppy @ Jun 4th 2007 12:15PM

"Oh, and technically speaking, it's a fictitious war. The one in CoD4, I mean."

Just like Mash wasn't about Vietnam, right?

hvnlysoldr @ Jun 4th 2007 12:23PM

I could have sworn that the show literally kept saying MASH is in the Korean War, but totally see them as hippies in the Vietnam War.

cc123 @ Jun 4th 2007 12:24PM

Mash wasn't Vietnam, it was Korea.

;P

Walking Contradiction @ Jun 4th 2007 12:34PM

Wow! Now we are talking about Mash. Joystiq is going down hill without my trolling. Flamewar anyone?

XGamerX @ Jun 4th 2007 12:38PM

Oh Pachter, I fully believe that 95% of the gaming community could be analysts just like him. Most of it is just common sense.

http://gamergeddon.com/

incrediblebulk92 @ Jun 4th 2007 12:45PM

For a game made by EA they seem a little to eager to pick on OTHER companies flaws, what were the last 5 games published by EA? Were any of them any good? I'm sure they all had "glaring imperfections". Hmm yea I'm starting to should like a GH fanboy or something, i'm not, just annoyed by the way that article was written

StrangeBum @ Jun 4th 2007 1:00PM

@4 cc123

Yes..MASH was set in the Korean War, but it was a sort of look at what Vietnam was about, seeing how we were in Vietnam at the time of the show.

So yes, you're correct, but it's all about Nam.

Frankie @ Jun 4th 2007 7:18PM

This is getting rediculous. Pachter is warning Activision and potential investers on what could be a luke-warm year for the company but if you stroll over to videogame.com/news here:

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6171888.html?om_act=convert&om_clk=newstop&tag=newstop;title;9

The analysts mentioned this:

Quartet of industry watchers tells investors that publisher could very well outpace its own guidance for record sales this year.

So which one is it?!

cc123 @ Jun 4th 2007 1:15PM

@StrangeBum

Well you got me there then since I don't actually watch Mash.

I just got a trivia question wrong a while back when I answered Vietnam and it was Korea.

Buckshot @ Jun 4th 2007 1:15PM

Patcher is such a tool. Yeah like we need another MTV Music Generator, but this time it costs $400 to get all the accessories.

Matt B @ Jun 4th 2007 1:19PM

Does Pachter even play video games? If not, then he has no credibility with me. Not like his "Educated Speculation" has much merit anyway.

Kenny @ Jun 4th 2007 1:35PM

True that most fans might still support Guitar Hero 3 due to brand loyalty, but seeing those GH3 release videos last week made me reconsider. Rock Band sounds more fun, and it'll be interesting how they battle out this Holiday season.

Rock Band Facebook Group - http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=2346954822

Jonathan Tran @ Jun 4th 2007 1:51PM

Yeah nothing is more fun that shelling out the cost of the Wii on a single game!

Or if you don't like the Wii, the cost of all 3 last gen consoles in used condition!

Doug Kaplan @ Jun 4th 2007 2:18PM

This reminds me of Steel Betallion and the cost of that controller and how it inhibited potential customers because the cost was too high. Should be interesting to see how well this sells because even though early estimates on costs don't have a leg to stand on, there is no way the entire kit for this game won't cost less than $200!

sheppy @ Jun 4th 2007 4:29PM

Actually, Doug Kaplan, I think Steel Battalions two biggest problems were the fact that it was a mech game and that it was a mech game so advanced, Tokyo University held classes on how to play it. I mean, the first time you look at the controller, it's intimidating. Toggles, switches, buttons, targeting, three pedals, I mean, hell. The controller had a fire extinguisher button. If anything chased customers away from Steel Battalion, it was the controller, not the cost.

Judd @ Jun 5th 2007 4:57AM

This is Sheppy's point:

Yes, technically MASH is about the Korean war. But the original books, film and television show all came out during the Vietnam war.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%2AA%2AS%2AH

So although it was technically about the Korean War, MASH (especially the movie) was referencing the Vietnam war. When the film came out during 1970 it would have been criticized for being anti-war. It wasn't until after Vietnam where films like Apocalypse Now and Platoon came out.

Since America has gone into Iraq around four years ago I've wondered why there hasn't been a Iraq War film. However, I realized that studios are afraid to do that while it goes on. "Jarhead" is the closest major-motion picture(not documentary) film I can think of. That film was about the Persian Gulf War but just like MASH it was really hinting at the current war. So yes, COD4 is a fictional war but it's obviously supposed to be "modern Warefare."

(Rant)I just wish either the film, television or video game industry were willing to man up and actually create something that outright says what it's about. I mean you think about how Ghost Recon takes place in Mexico, but if they are making Mercenaries take place in Venezuela it's not fair. Or how James Bond films used to take on Russians all the time, but they won't have an Arab as the main bad guy. Grow some balls Hollywood and game developers.(/Rant)

Oh and to stay on topic, although I think Rock Band may turn out better, I still think GH3 will sell much better. Guitar Hero is big among the casual-gamer crowd, many of which who do not know that the franchise isn't by the guys who used to make it, but instead will rely on brand recognition.