The future of console hardware design

What format, will they be. Will MS cave and have to include a BR drive in the 720?---->

Personally I'm more in the software side of next-gen consoles.


More specifically how games will be delivered. The ability to download full games would be pretty sweet. I also believe, perhaps a bit far fetched, but flashed based cartridges will be the new cd-rom standard. By the time we start even hearing whispers of new consoles, the price of flash based memory should be considerably low.

Im a Slot Technician, most of the machines that Konami has are on CD and DVD. The newer ones we have recieved this quarter are all flash based.

Hey why not work on this gen for awhile? I have one or two games that truly look next gen and R6 and Forza2 ain't them.

I think the next generation will have the ability to stream HD video content from the internet on the consoles.

I doubt that the time has come for the console heavyweights that are Sony and Microsoft to get radical with their input design.

Nintendo's next move will be the most fascinating... will they keep their wiimote and improve graphics? add multimedia functionality? or try to keep the revolution going and introduce more risky innovations? My money is on a wiimote with improved functionality: more sensitivity and various other hardware improvements on the current design. I think that there will be some technology improvements in the graphics department on the next Wii, but I doubt they will give their next console much oomph... maybe enough to just about power 1080p, so the equivalent of the xbox 360.

The future is cloudiest of all for Sony, however... I doubt we can expect another new format in time for the PS4. I'm going to make a wild guess and say that they will put a big emphasis on cosmetic appearance and market the PS4 to be able to fit in as a centrepiece of the living room, similar to the prominent position of the television. So they will want stylish, artistic and 'cool', in order to play down any elements of 'geeky'.

Hey! How about designing a console that actually does play all your old games. (MS & Sony)

Instead of saying all that BS about, "Less is more"
(P M)

My completely baseless prognostications:

1) The next Xbox had better have a slotloading drive.

2) Solidstate storage will probably Hard Drive based solutions due to noise and speed issues

3) Perhaps the next Nintendo console will have two versions, one that supports HD and one that does not. Assuming it comes out ~2011, the SD version may be phased out around 2015, when HDTV penetration reaches a level that it makes sense to put the HD hardware in every box (~50%)

4) When you buy a game, you'll still walk into a store and buy it on disk, but the console will, when presented with the disk, note it in your account (the same account you use to buy VC/XBLA/PSN titles), so that if anything happens to the disk you can replace it for the costs of materials and shipping (~$5).

5) The PS4 will remain bluray to maintain backward compatibility, but other consoles will remain on DVD because developers will, by this point, realize that 8Gb is more than enough room to put any game, regardless of its graphical prowess or intended resolution, regardless of Sony's theories on the matter. Plus DVD is cheaper, and price will be an even bigger consideration than it is now.

6) Refined motion controls, utilized in games that benefit from it, ignored in games that don't.

7) I certainly hope that the controller style utilized in the Wii, where each hand has a piece of controller separated with a cord, it more prevalent next time, as this is a much, much more comfortable way to play a game. However, I also hope that this doesn't result in a general lowering in the number of buttons on these controllers. The Wii has a few too few buttons, and many on the Wiimote are in awkward places (1, 2, +, -).

Number 2) is supposed to read ..."storage will probably overtake Hard Drive"...

Some interesting ideas, Syco...

1) Considering both Wii and PS3 already do, I guess it isn't hard to believe Microsoft will do the same for their next box. I just hope they'll pick a good brand of drive. One that isn't so noisy, and takes good care of the discs you put in it.

2) Possible. SSDs are still pretty pricey right now, but flash memory prices drop rapidly. It really wouldn't be too hard to imagine, I guess.
Perhaps they'll all include slots for memory cards (Wii already supports SD cards natively, and PS3 supports MS/SD/CF). Conveinent to back up game saves and what not.

3) This I doubt. I really don't think Nintendo's going to release multiple models. Satoru Iwata had stated before (something to the effect of) that while HD wasn't a big deal for this generation, it will be next generaiton.

4) Ha! Hahaha! Yeah, nice one. Nothing wrong with dreaming, but I don't see it happening.

5) I'm thinking that in five years, a "winner" will be decided for the HD disc wars (I say "winner" in quotes because neither format is likely to have the same success DVD did).
In the case that Blu-ray Disc is the "winner," both Sony's and Nintendo's next machines will have BD drives, and Microsoft's next machine will have a combo-drive, to playback all those HD-DVDs people might've bought for their 360 add-on.
In the case that HD-DVD is the "winner," both Microsoft and Nintendo will place HD-DVD drives in their boxes. Sony will have a combo-drive, only for movie compatability. Games will still be on BD.

6) Can't go wrong with refining existing controls. That's how we got to 360 from 2600. :P

7) I think this is one of the biggest innovations of Wii's control scheme. Not necessarily the moition sensors and pointing abilities, but the modular nature of the controller. You could have the Wii Remote by itself, or attach a myriad of attachments to it, each of which can change how the game is played.
Plus, it is nice not having both hands glued together, eh?

@syco

Actually, the current Wii already supports showing games in HD - it just doesn't have the horse power to display those games at a high resolution without dialing down the graphics to an embarrassing level.

HD isn't something you "install" in a game system; either the system has enough power to display a certain number of polygons at such a high resolution - or it doesn't.

What ever's next, I hope Sony and MS take a cue from Nintendo and don't make consoles that are INSANELY powerful like the 360 and PS3.
Because Insanely Powerful = Insanely Expensive.

I don't think they should give the hardware a little bump like Nintendo did, but we don't need consoles that are 15-20x more powerful than their predecessors, either.
Basically, I don't want to have to pay more than $350 MAX for my next machine.

...if there even if a next. Who knows? If the Wii collapses and Sony and MS release more $600+ consoles, you can count me out of video gaming.
And that's a damn shame.

Meh. Sorry for the double post.

"7) I certainly hope that the controller style utilized in the Wii, where each hand has a piece of controller separated with a cord, it more prevalent next time, as this is a much, much more comfortable way to play a game. However, I also hope that this doesn't result in a general lowering in the number of buttons on these controllers. The Wii has a few too few buttons, and many on the Wiimote are in awkward places (1, 2, +, -)."

I agree on all points.
I think Nintendo kind of gimped the Wiimote, design-wise.
I think if they added a pop-up analog stick around where the speaker is and added '3' and '4' buttons, the controller would be a LOT more versitile.
There are a lot of games that would kick major ass on the Wii that are out NOW, like Okami or Godhand, but the Wiimote is so limited for buttons that it'd be a struggle to shoehorn controls in in a logical manner.

But yeah. I definitely think motion controls are going to be big next time around.

Here is my list of what the next, next gen consoles should have

For Microsoft and Sony:

1.Keep the same CPUs. Both have plenty of unused power. Just get the die size down to 45nm or at least 65nm.

2.More ram, at least 1Gb

3.A dedicated physics processor.

For Nintendo

1. Improve nothing. Just change the controller again and put the same hardward in a new case. Call it the Famicon 2 and re-rerealease your all the old nintendo games with support for the new controller. Be sure to charge at least $8 per game.

First of all, I meant flash when I said solidstate, I had forgotten the difference.

Secondly, you are right, in a sense, that the Wii can technically do HD, since it has a full 3MB of graphics ram (actually physically on the graphics chip along with another 24MB of T1 ram), which is enough room to do video at up to 720p. However, the hardware is not designed for that kind of load, and by not having excessive hardware, it saves every Wii purchaser ~$50. That's my point, essentially, and I think that people are still going to want to save that $50 in five years.

expect MS to go HVD next time around

Actually, syco, solid state drives are made using NAND flash. Well, most are. Some are made using SDRAM. But NAND flash SSDs are more common, since they can be made more compact, and are more durable.

Nintendo's next generation of games will come in the form of widespread interoperability between the Wii and the DS, games that come with both a DVD and Card in the box and use the DS to control the Wii and to share information on other Wii's.

Xbox 360 will evolve into Xbox 720: bigger, badder, more powerful hardware that targets the hardcore PC gamers. First-person shooters may even come out that require keyboard & mouse controls.

Sony will also usher in powerful new hardware in the PS4, but the real theme of their future in market is making the PS3 widespread, the console for everyone, by making it affordable and with a huge library of games spanning every possible genre.

The focus for all future consoles is to make them more stable. Graphics don't need to evolve much beyond the level of Gears of War, but those visuals need to be applied even to sprawling adventure games, RPGs, even party/singing games, running at a solid 60 fps. More attention needs to be paid not only to how something looks, but how realistically it animates. This needs to be the standard, rather than the exception.

@ 16...

I very much doubt they would directly target PC Gamers. Microsoft doesn't really gain much from doing that since they are also the only PC gaming platform. Sony are the ones that have an incentive to really target PC gamers, as they have tried to do with the PS3.

5 years from now:

Blu-ray became the standard format 3 years earlier. The 720 will have a combo player in it, but with no backward compatibility with 360 games. DVD's will only be sold in second hand stores and are still viable because of upscalers. Just not viable as a gaming or movie medium except on the wii.
Through the use of the PS EYE, gesture based gaming makes the wiimote look silly. Kind of like how hair metal died when "Smells like Teen Spirit" first aired.

I think Matt B is on some good hallucinogens

"Through the use of the PS EYE, gesture based gaming makes the wiimote look silly"

lol extremely unlikely


"The 720 will have a combo player in it, but with no backward compatibility with 360 games"

no BC with 360 games at all, also extremely unlikely

Although the PS3 just might succeed in making Blu-Ray the "winner" in the next gen DVD race but it might not we still need to see how big a role the adult entertainment industry plays a role in this since they will only be releasing movies in DVD and HD-DVD sorry guys no porn will be available on Blu-Ray.

@ Blizz4l9

So what makes my prediction a vision and yours fact? There is as much speculation in your post as mine.

Also, how is gesture based gaming "extremely unlikely". I'd really like to know your apparent vast amounts of knowledge because "extremely unlikely" is a little vague.

@Matt B

I never claimed my opinion fact, but your opinion seems a bit more delusional, I don't see how gesture based controls would make the Wiimote look silly, and it is extremely unlikely that the next Xbox will not be BC with 360 games. I never said gesture based gaming is unlikely just thats its unlikely to make the Wiimote look silly, and um "extremely unlikely" means exactly what it says you know theres a very unlikely chance that such situation would happen. I think you need to touch up on your English cuz you seem to have issues understanding it.

@Matt B

I never claimed my opinion fact, but your opinion seems a bit more delusional, I don't see how gesture based controls would make the Wiimote look silly, and it is extremely unlikely that the next Xbox will not be BC with 360 games. I never said gesture based gaming is unlikely just thats its unlikely to make the Wiimote look silly, and um "extremely unlikely" means exactly what it says you know theres a very unlikely chance that such situation would happen. I think you need to touch up on your English cuz you seem to have issues understanding it.

Two ideas.
1) Nintendo releases next Home and portable system simultaneously. The home system will be between $200-$250 and fitted with a HDDVD player and the best components they can fit in there at that price. It will also have a slot for whatever form the new portable games take. The portable system will have the dual screens, motion controls,and include a port to attach things like the nunchuck. This will make it easily useable as the Home controller. Games will either be released for download, HDDVD, or the flash cart.

or

2) Microsoft and Nintendo finally join forces to create the ultimate home console. They let Microsoft put whatever components they want in the system as long as it retails for $250. If a loss is taken on each unit sold Microsoft agrees to cover the losses. In Japan it will be known as the Wii2Live. In the United states it will be known as the 720WiiLive. The new controllers will be the 360 controller with motion controls and the ability to be split in two. Considering they both used ati and ibm the system will be backwards compatible with the Wii and 360.

Matt B,
Remember the PS2's EyeToy and the 360's? XBL Vision Camera?
Remind me exactly how much different the PS3's Eye is from that?

I think by the next generation, Nintendo will have refined the motion control concept enough, to the point (well beyond what the Wii is already capable) where it becomes a truly intuative feeling. On top of that, as prices come down they will bring the hardware itself up to par with Sony and Microsoft's offerings. This would also force the 2 of them to follow suit if they don't have a clear hardware advantage

As far as the machines themselves, if there is a clear winner in the HDDVD/BR war, then that will be the standard on all 3 (if HDDVD wins, Sony would use a hybrid drive for BC) but if there isn't a clear winner, they'll stick with DVD. SSDs will almost definately replace hard drives as long as they keep progressing as they have been. 802.11n standard ::coughmscough:: and everything else that is expected.

ON another note, is that a Gamecube board in the picture? I can't read the name on the chips.

@Ted

I never said Microsoft was targeting PC gamers; I said Xbox 360 was targeting gamers. See the difference? Microsoft is not intentionally trying to lure people away from PC, but you cannot deny there are certain people who:
1)Like first person shooters.
2)Want the very latest, best high-definition graphics.
3)Prefer online multiplayer games.

Now, normally that would describe a person who upgrades their gaming rig for $1000+ every couple of years, and that still applies... but, for people like that who also want to save money, Xbox 360 caters to them.

BPM,

Have you not seen the Eye of Judgment tech demos? The one where he punches the digital character and knocks him back? That is what I mean by gesture based.

and why couldn't ps2's or XBox's camera's do that Matt B?

I would say:

Nintendo On (early prototype Wii name that got shuffled out): it will probably come first of them all (2009 area), sit at about $300, and be about 1.5-2x as powerful as the 360 (it would make sense, because its not nintendo's strategy to deliberately gimp hardware, they just pushed out a machine that, hardware-wise, fell into an acceptable price range, and at that point, the price of multicore processors will be relatively accessible). The remote will be entirely self-contained (no nunchuck), supporting more buttons, with a joystick built in

Xbox Core: i still believe that Microsoft wants to go for PC convergance, and thier next console could concievably be a living-room friendly gaming PC, compatible with all PC compatible games, but all PC games released in the console's lifespan would have to conform to the Core's minimum requirements. It would come with a standard controller but have optional Wii-remoteesque, Keyboard, and mouse controllers. It would be roughly 1.5x more powerful than the Nintendo On, and it would support all kinds of media formats for its games (CD,DVD, BRD, Downloadable, SD Card, etc)

PlayStation 4: would be a great takeoff on the PS3, only about 1.5x the power, but with a much, much more effecient processor. It would run off Blu-ray, and Sony would sponsor a ripoff of thier own Home service, this one built around customization of your own PS4 experience, in order to cater to hardcore, casual, and everything in between with various kinds of downloadable games, communities, and content

Also, i feel there is a strong choice that whoever "loses" this generation, unless it's all very close, will probably drop out of console gaming entirely

The reasoning is thus:
Nintendo: If they lose AGAIN, it means their influence in console gaming will have steadily gone down for about 15 years straight, at that point they would realize thier inability to compete for mindshare and marketshare and depart (sticking to the handheld market, where they've stayed strong, but going 3rd party for home consoles)
Microsoft: If the 360 fails to gain more marketshare than the Xbox, and the division as a whole is still unprofitable, Microsoft will probably pull the plug, because it would be unfeasible to keep dumping money in if they got no results
Sony: Low console/software sales will annihilate their profit margins, they may stick to the handheld market (their effort so far has been okay), if PS3 proves to be a financial debacle, there's just as much of a chance that they'll throw in the towel as try again

Nintendo wouldn't quit hardware even if they were in third place again this time, which is much more unlikely now that they have a significantly more popular product than the Gamecube. Even though the Gamecube, overall, was somewhat disappointing for Nintendo, they still made absurd amounts of money making and selling the Gamecube and it's games. A company isn't going to leave a business they are profitable in, it just doesn't make sense.

@ mr. Khan

Nintendo On was not a prototype idea by Nintendo it was Fan fiction made by a guy somewhere in S. America

Also Nintendo wasn't really in 3rd place last gen only in the U.S. worldwide Nintendo was in second and Xbox in 3rd also Nintendo made the most profit last gen

Here's my best guess:

The graphics on both the 360 and the PS3 are already so good (in 5 years they'll be even better), that we won't need to see that much of a graphics improvement. I mean they're already capable of displaying a signal in 1080p. Because of this, the next generation won't be based as much on how powerful the hardware is ... it'll be a lot more about the software.

MS - Take the 360 elite ... add a Blu-ray drive (slot loading) ... increase the hard drive to about 250 GB ... add 802.11n wireless ... add motion sensitivity to the controller ... keep support for the HD DVD addon (for those that have already invested in that technology) ... lastly, keep pretty much the same architecture and make modest hardware improvements. Sell it for $299

Sony - Take the PS3 ... increase the Hard drive to about 250 GB ... add rumble to the controller (hopefully this will have already happened) ... include a cable with the system similar to the 360 elite (included composite, component, and hdmi connections) ... improve the wireless to 802.11n. Sell it for $299

Nintendo - Beef up the system to about the level of the 360 (which should be pretty inexpenive by then and will allow for an HD signal) ... improve the wiimote technology ... include HD cables with the system. Sell for about $199

I think MS and Sony will have both learned a lesson from Nintendo. The prices of the next consoles will be alot less (again because they won't need to push the hardware as much).

Multiple SKU's will be gone to keep things simple for the consumer (Microsoft this is directed at you). Each system will have a Blu-ray drive as well as a built in Hard drive (I still don't think we'll see flash drives this time around). Developers will love this because they'll know that each system is exactly the same (i.e. they won't have to try and build a game to work with or without a hard drive).

Xbox Live is going to have to come down in price (especially since the competition is free). The transition from a gaming machine to the center of the living room will be the big push. The selling points will be in the software (whatever that may be).