I predict the PS3 outselling the Wii.



lol.

If the PS3 comes out selling less than 100k in North America for a second straight month, there's going to have to be a lot of soul searching at Sony.

Will the GBA continue its fight for life? We can only hope!

ps3 needs a price cut before its accepted by the masses.

I would like to think the 360 might see a spike in sales this past month. (more likely just software sales) Between Forza 2, Shadowrun, and the beta having ended, there are several good reasons for people to go out and buy a new game.

At the current rate that the PS3 is selling it will take about 2-3 years to reach 10 million consoles sold but remember that the Next gen does not start untill Sony says it does.. HA HA HA

sony = fucked.

-"superfan" tactics.

The monthly NPD numbers always make for the best flame wars, so I eagerly await them.

But has anyone ever gone back to see how accurate Pachter really is? Like compare his predictions to the actual results?

The Wii should start coming back down to Earth soon. There are only so many mini-games a person can handle.

The 360 should see a small sales spike due to the Elite hype.

The PS3...I just don't know. The exclusive games like Lair are just not going to really help things. Check back on how well Panzer Dragoon Orta sold in the States for proof that Americans could give a f--k about flying dragon games...regardless of quality. They need games with mass appeal the way GTA3 did for PS2. Lair and Heavenly sword are not those games, beautiful as they are.

There seems to be a bit of denial going round about the implications of these numbers. Looking at console hardware history can anybody see any way out for Sony at this point?

Both MS & Nintendo can easily afford reactionary price drops if the PS3 falls to 400-500 bucks and for every exclusive AAA release Sony's console gets this year they are matched by titles on the other systems. If you also factor in that the 360 benefits more from every game made multiplatform(ie. PS3 & 360)like Unreal, DMC4 etc.it is looking ominous for Sony's new baby. Will your average gamer prefer to pay $400 or $600 to play GTAIV? The answer seems clear to me.

Ask yourself this. If it was the Wii or 360 in the PS3's place sales-wise would there be any hesitation in condemning that console to near insignificance in this gen? I think there's something about the PS brand's past success that prevents people from seeing the clear picture that is forming here. The brand didn't gaurantee success for the PSP in the handheld market and it certainly wont for the PS3 in the far more competitive console market.

Even if Sony managed to shift a few million over the festive season is there any reason to think the other 2 consoles wont if not more so?

Can anyone provide any arguments to dispute that the PS3 is already a failure and will be at worst the GC and at best the N64 of this gen(though without any profit to show for it)?

RE: my last post...I do realize Lair and Heavenly Sword have not been released yet. I am speaking about low PS3 sales in general and how I see no end to that in the next few months.

No they cant

@10 no they cant

I'm willing to bet any Sony fanboy here that PS3 will move less than 100K units, again. Loser debases himself and sings the winner's praises in the NPD thread later this week.

Whatcha say, sheppy?

Wow, maybe acceptance of the PS3's fate has sunk in, a month ago I'd be drowning in indignant Sony fans insults right now.

Tho Michael Pachter is paid the big bucks to come up with the numbers, thesimexchange.com is using the 'wisdom of the crowds' with its 5000+ users to make its predictions (and for free!).

Here's the predictions for US sales May 2007:

XBox 360 - 208,000 units sold
PS3 - 80,000 units sold
Wii - 393,000 units sold
DS - 492,000 units sold
PSP - 176,000 units sold

Last month the predictions were off about 10%, so we're optimistic that this month number will be rather close.

You can find out more at http://www.thesimexchange.com/futures.php

I don't know which analysts are more absurd. The ones who get paid or the ones who just post in Joystiq's comments.

I just don't see where the games or supply were in May to justify his optimism. All his numbers seem really high; 25ish percent increase in PS3 sales, 30 percentish increase in 360 sales, and 11ish percent increase in Wii sales, all while there were no new games, few new games, and little increase in supply respectively. The only console I could see having a better month to that degree would be the DS, which is finally non-supply constrained.

http://eat-sleep-game.com/news

@ jduke

Why absurd?

At the moment, with the summer game drought in effect it's pretty easy to predict the months sales as they'll be reasonably close to the previous months totals. Forza2 may help 360's a little, Wii will continue to sell what it ships and PS3's numbers will continue to slump due to pretty much zero noteworthy exclusive games.

It's not rocket science.

I suppose its just funny to me that sales figures matter so much to fans of video games. We're so starved for video game news that we are now predicting how things will sell at some of the U.S. retailers.

There's probably a market for a game sales simulator for the DS.

Gah, why do I get called out in threads like this? What is really the point?

Fine... my take?

I don't expect a significant rise in PS3s sales but nor do I see a significant drop. PS3 will likely stay about the same but what dropped on the console to spawn sales? PS3 basically dropped multiplatform games last month and even Spiderman 3 couldn't push the PS3 into more homes. Which, considering the game, maybe it's better someones first experience with the console wasn't THAT. The PS3's sales fate is tried directly into the lineup that begins in late July (provided Lair doesn't get pushed back... AGAIN). If titles like Drake's Fortune, Ratchet & Clank, and Heavenly Sword do drop this holiday season, we will see a drastic increase. Nowhere near on the level of Halo 3 pushing 360s but still, pretty good. Of course this can be changed even more if Sony institutes a significant price drop. And despite people's claims Sony can do it pretty easily. Unlike Microsoft and Nintendo, Sony manufacturers most of their own components so deals can be cut and it would drive prices down faster than normal. After all, PSP and PS2 both leveled out on the cost to price ratio in a little under a year. Sony would then need to recover from the BluRay and Cell issue and both of those are looking to be turning around. Granted, PS3 will be costing Sony most of the revenue generated by the PS2 and PSP and, worse comes to worse, even some money from other divisions. But Sony as a company has been doing fairly well this year as Bravias continue to make Sony mint and their Camera and Camcorder divisions continue to perform above expectations. So Sony, as a company, will continue to feel the sting of the PS3 for the rest of this year but this is definately a storm that can be weathered until the big guns come to support. PS3 has, so far, avoided any particular market demographic labeling so Sony still has a chance to redeem PS3 in the long run but it's definately an uphill battle. So this year? Third place but the holiday season will give us a better idea of the long term of PS3.

360 will see an increase in sales this month but mainly from even more Halo 3 hype generated. The system continues to focus entirely too much on the hardcore gamers despite all the licensed games. 360, however, may see a bip over the next couple months as more and more of their heavy gunners keep slipping into the holiday season to fuel the arms race. But last month, a definate upswing, but a marginal one.

And Wii, well, it will continue to sell well regardless. It may not be dropping any games worth mentioning right now but I've only seen it in stores 3 times last month and "Wii sightings" still end up a big deal on CAG. So I expect the rush to continue well into the next couple months. But Nintendo NEEDS to provide the meatier games this holiday season to avoid the minigame labeling their own releases have fostered.

DS will still see good sales, a potential dip, though largely being maintained by the momentum of the Pokemons. Although, to be honest, the game doesn't seem to have the same legs it used to and certainly not comparable to Japanese performance.

PSP, I expect, will continue to see a marginal increase due to the price drop but as more PSP redesign rumors surface, this could damage PSP sales.

PS2? Like Godzilla, nothing can stop it. Which is good because it's the primary bank for PS3 endeavors.

It has been a bit slow recently though I've always found sales numbers to be interesting even when I've owned consoles that didn't exactly set the world on fire. It's kind of like watching the share price of a company of which you own stock. If the company performs well your stocks goes up and likewise if a console does well it's future software benefits.

So I do think it's natural for gamers to watch the numbers as they clearly have an impact on the value of the console they've invested in. I can also understand those who couldn't care less about sales and are happy to play the best that their chosen console has to offer.

I'd rather purchase a fleshlight.

@ sheppy

"The PS3's sales fate is tied directly into the lineup that begins in late July (provided Lair doesn't get pushed back... AGAIN). If titles like Drake's Fortune, Ratchet & Clank, and Heavenly Sword do drop this holiday season, we will see a drastic increase. Nowhere near on the level of Halo 3 pushing 360s but still, pretty good."

Sony needs to start catching at least 1 of its competitors this holiday season if it's gonna have any chance in hell of turning the tide. If you are saying that it's software isn't gonna push as many units as the 360's then surely it's screwed? It's a pretty safe bet that it won't turn around the current 5:1 wordlwide ratio the Wii has on it so if what you say is true it'll be languishing even further behind the front-runners than it is now.

@BiggerBoat,

Normally, I'd tend to agree with you, but 360 is showing no signs of budging on their price until Sony leads the way in this regard. Wii is doing so well as a matter or price more than library. If Wii was $400, it would not be feeding on the market it currently is. So Wii is uncatchable at this point. Meanwhile, 360 has Halo 3. Unbeatable, no matter how you look at it. But if you recall, Xbox sales slowed significantly after Halo 2. The system is just too expensive for mass market appeal and Microsofts attempts to gather that market in the past have been massive failures. Right now, MS's biggest chance in this regard is to stand by and let the third parties fill the library with fluff. A position they are willing to support considering they are current running a commercial hyping 3 of the crappiest games of the summer just because they are tied to movies. But for the most part, their platform is appealing largely to hardcore gamers only. Provided Sony can hold the fort long enough to be comparably priced with 360 (which has thankfully remained greedy bastards and are likely to hold off on a price drop until Halo 3 fever slows), then it will all come down to a software war. And I'd hate to say it but I give Sony the edge here. Over the life of PSOne, Sony went from being a joke to becoming a decent developer. During PS2 and PSP, they became a damn good developer. Microsofts current tactics remain hiring other developers.

Meanwhile, Sony, according to many, many surveys, has the most amount of loyalist. And evey PS2 sold right now is a sale denied to 360 and PS3. So while Sony continues to support PS2 in a major way, both Nintendo and Microsoft have killed their loyalist route. I mean, when even budget titles for Gamecube get cancelled (Radio Allergy), it's game over. But if Sony could build a library appealing to what people are buying on PS2, by the time that $200 price tag comes about, Sony will have the edge over Microsoft in this regard.

In other words, I don't expect a domination from ANYONE this generation. But I don't expect PS3 to flatout fail either. Then again, I have a different opinion of failing than others do. Because I've been told repeatedly that PSP, despite selling 22 million in two years, is a failure. These are numbers only the Nintendo DS could beat. So far, PS3 is selling well for only being supported by Resistance as it's killer app and being a $600 console. Seriously, it's already outperformed the portents of doom and gloom that came from "it's 3DO!"

@ sheppy

I have to say I don't share your optimism but respect your points. I think that if MS has any kind of business sense they will ensure that the 360 stays at a significantly lower price than the PS3 for the whole of this gen, thus making it a more attractive proposition for the mainstream gamer you're talking about. I still think however that Wii has that market all but completely cornered.

The reason the PS2 was home to so many casual gamer hits was because of market share and a relatively low price. The PS3 has neither one of these and will continue to be the most expensive and thus 'specialist' console on the market, so IMO drawing comparisons between the PS2's demographic and PS3's doesn't hold water. Apart from the letters 'P' & 'S' they are very different animals.

As for in-house development, neither MS nor Sony can hold a candle to the sheer volume of quality titles Nintendo puts out for its consoles yet that did not help the GC or N64 challenge the PS2 or PS. In conclusion, 1st party games can't save a floundering console.

Finally, success and failure are relative. Is the PSP a failure in comparison to its competitor, I'd say yes(and it's gonna get much worse). I also think the 22 million userbase is misleading as it is the games which make companies real money and it is well known that the PSP is getting obliterated on this front from the DS(along with most other platforms I'd guess). Incidentally the same goes for the PS3 which in Japan is selling less games than consoles!

Again, I think if this console had anybodies name but Sony's on it, we'd be dismissing it as a serious contender this gen. The Emperor's new clothes comes to mind.

Wow, BiggerBoat, we actually have a debate going without the fanboys ruining. I hope it stays that way. Anywho, on with the show.

The reason why I drew the parallels between the two libraries wasn't as much of an assured victory but as a matter of looking at the console traditions as they stand. Take, for example, PSX. It had a history of releasing games and Sony allowing companies to release games AND promoting them well into 2003. To give you a better example, the last PSX game I know about was Madden 2005.

Now we go to PS2 and here we are, despite the replacement console being here, Sony is still pushing PS2 AND developing new games (Sony has, in their own studios, well over 50 games in development according to their GDC notes). We haven't even entered the budget bin phase that PSX enjoyed for a full 3 years. PS2 sales remain strong and with Sony actually offering support shows one hell of a big sign towards consumer loyalty. What are Gamecube and Xbox's plans? Nothing, actually. Last GCN game was scheduled to BE Radio Allergy and that's canceled. Meanwhile, PS2 and Wii keep feeding each others libraries. PS2 has a good three more years, at least, before it finally drops from developers minds forever. And while this is happening, Sony gets to kill two birds with one stone as the PSP and PS2 libraries feed of each other as well. So in other words, rather than having Sony push for a definative answer on why you should buy a PS3, Sony is instead pushing for a viable answer on why you should stay loyal to Sony. And remember, each PS2 sold is a sale taken from another console. Most people don't buy multiple consoles. And when they finally upgrade, all their games still work. This is very important to the mass market consumer.

And I do know I show optimism. But I also know Xbox is refusing to budge on their pricing of both online content and console price. They'll remain a great value to the hardcore but always a tad of a ripoff to the mass consumer. And while I wish I could see them budge, I think the more logical push from them would be packing in games that cost em $3 to press instead. Especially if they go with games that have already made their money back.

I also see Sony continuing to push to being the PREMIER dd console. Microsoft got the headstart but Sony has the potential to drastically change the current way we do this thing. For example, GHII vs. Singstar. GHII utilizes bundles and at a premium cost (claiming licensing reasons but majority of the songs are covers) meanwhile Sony has promised a music store and iTunes pricing to expand your game with music FROM the original artist. If Sony can deliver on this promise, hell, PS3s will be sold as Karaoke machines alone.

Although, granted, these are all things Sony has PROMISED and not delivered. And if we go by that, 360's Xbox Live should have been on PS2. If Sony can finally start delivering on these grand ambitions, I could see a day where someone looks at 360 and PS3 and has to decide if the loss of features is worth saving the money. Of course that requires store staff to be KNOWLEDGABLE about products nowadays and considering I was in EB trying to find a copy of Crush and overheard a clerk tell a customer PS3 has a high failure rate and 360 Elites play HD-DVDs right out the box, my hopes there are crushed.

Also, you mention the N64 and Gamecube. For the most part, they were successful. They remained profitable. And Sony makes their own components so there is that factor. If Sony can become profitable with PS3, it would be just enough to warrant a PS4. And given the current trends, it looks like it will become profitable, just not the majority leader.

The nice thing is that this isn't a 1 year race. We'll see who is still running 5 years from now.

Also, forgot to mention. BiggerBoat, sees your Tie Ratio info on PS3 is a tad off. PS3 currently has a 3.7 attach rate in Japan, a 4.8 in the US, and a 2.4 in Europe.

I wouldn't be suprised if the PS3 sold close or lower than 80,000 from last year... in april they had 3 shitty ports... in may there wasn't even one shitty game released

@ sheppy

I agree it must be the annual troll convention or something, cause they sure aren't on joystiq today.

Back to the debate. I don't think the longevity of Sony's support for it's first two platforms has anything to do with loyalty but simple economic sense. Reaping the rewards of the software sold of of a 100 million+ install base is the reason MS,Sony & N are slugging out this console war. Sony are still making good profits off of PS2 so why would they cut back on development?

Had the GC or Xbox sold in the same region as the PS2 we'd still be seeing them being supported now but as we know they didn't & MS and N obviously thought their resources would be better spent trying to gain a foothold in this gen and securing a larger market share, which it looks like both will do with ease. I'm not going to go through the history books but I'm guessing you'll find that the dominant consoles are the ones that stick around for longest, whoever the manufacturer(see N's GB series). I'm pretty sure that if Sony sees the PS3 doing a GC or N64 in terms of hardware sold we'll see it's software support pulled from under it prematurely & it's successor's appearance much sooner in an attempt to reclaim some of the massive chunk of market share it's lost(the 10 year promise be damned).

As for the PS3 becoming profitable, I don't see it. It is already billions in the hole and manufacturing cost cutting is surely being inhibited by the fact that they are scaling back on units produced due to lack of demand.Retailers and developers aren't gonna wait around for the PS3 to drop in price when there are viable, more profitable alternatives in the 360 & Wii. If Sony are even going to make a fight of it this gen they'll need to drop the price soon(IMO def before the holiday season) & that would all but gaurantee that the PS3 woouldn't see a penny of profit this gen, again IMO.

The N64 & GC were profitable almost right out of the gate whereas the PS3 is haemoraging money, without much software sales to cushion the blow so if it were to sell between 20-35 mill it's bottom line would be far, far, far uglier.

Finally, surely you can get a Karaoke machine for far less than 600 bucks?

@ sheppy

When I said the PS3's software was being outsold by it's hardware in Japan I meant currently, the last several weeks this has been the case, which is pretty crazy.

@ Matt B

"The nice thing is that this isn't a 1 year race. We'll see who is still running 5 years from now."

It may be a 5 year race but if you go by the last 2 gens you'll find the results are pretty obvious at an early stage. How long before it was clear that the PS1&2 had 'won' their repective wars, 18 months? 2 years max? It's looking like the PS3 will have it all to do after this holiday season which'll be over a year since release. It's all about momentum in the console game and the Wii has it in spades, the 360's maintaining a decent level and the PS3 is barely registering.

@ #2 Scott

Will this not be the third month with uder £100k sales for the PS3 if that is indeed the case?

Boat, nice comments today... I have added your name to my mental list of favored commenters. Shep's on there too, but I don't want to subscribe to his newsletter like I do yours.

My May Predictions:

First of all, I own a PS3, so yeah I am bias or whatever. This is honestly how I see the console race however.

Sales:
Nintendo DS: 535,000
Nintendo Wii: 385,000
Sony Playstation 2: 290,000
Sony PSP: 205,000
Microsoft Xbox: 180,000
Sony Playstation 3: 165,000

No company really added much in May, if anything Nintendo and Sony had the best months. The Elite system doesnt mean crap for Microsoft. I still don't respect them until they can outsell the PS2.

The best-selling game on each system last gen was San Andreas on the PS2, Halo 2 on the Box, and Melee on the Cube. GTAIV, Halo 3, and Brawl are all out this Christmas. This Christmas will be nuts and huge for all 3 systems. But... PS3 has one big game, 360 has 2, and the Wii has 3. I think the 360 will win September, and the Wii will win December, and the PS3 gets smoked the entire shopping season, Black Friday through New Year's. Those be my forecast! Oh, and the DS wins everything, and the only REAL race is the PS3 vs. the GBA. Tune in Thursday!

Great debate between BiggerBoat and Sheppy by the way :)

I think it ends in a draw unless the debate is still going on.

I'll go with Sheppy personally, because I own a PS3.

but Boat made some good comments.

@37

Even the biggest fanboys know that Sony has more than jsut 1 big game (I think you are talkin about MGS4 but I'm not sure)

You must have forgotten Lair, Heavenly Sword, Rachet and Clank, Uncharted, Killzone 2, Metal Gear Solid 4 (or did you?), HOME if you count that,

Thats around 6 or 7.

360 has about that amount as well, and same for Nintendo.

I think they split up the holidays about even.

Metal Gear Solid 4 won't see this Christmas, which is what I'm talking about, and all those other games won't sell half as much as Halo 3, GTA4, Brawl, Galaxy, or Corruption. Yes those are fairly big games, but not as ridiculously big as the ones I'm talking about. Sony will be playing some pretty good catch up with MGS4 and FF13 whenever they come out, but it's still a really bad uphill catch up struggle.

Konami already released a new trailor that confirmed MGS4 WAS coming out in 2007. Which means it will be in stores by Christmas.

GTA4 is on PS3 as well as 360, so that doesnt count. Just like DMC4 doesnt count.

and you people need to cut the Halo 3 crap. That game is going to be a huge disappointment, just like the Beta was.

after 2007, what do 360 fans even have to look forward to? Sony has the inevitable God of War, Final Fantasy 13, LittleBigPlanet, ect. Nintendo has...well the same as it does now, just a new version of it. Halo ends after this game. What now for MS?

@Gamble20

First of all, MGS4 will NOT come out in 2007, just forget about it.

Second, GTA4 will sell millons more on 360 as it is so deal with it.

Third, Halo3 will own the world no matter what you say (or even if it sucks).

I'm not even going to comment on the future games part.

@ Rubang B

Actually according to vgchartz the biggest game for GC was MarioKartDD which sold 6.6 million, pipping Melee by 20K. So theoretically Nintendo still has its biggest franchise to drop even after the big 3 are released.

@BiggerBoat

Hmmm I didn't think about that...

Now we need a couple AAA third party games, ones like RE4, then things would be all good....

@9 Why do people keep on and on and on about mini-game compilations on the Wii. There is only 3 of them, out of the 50+ games on Wii. What is the problem with that? WarioWare, Wii-Play (it's a pack in with a controller and shouldnt count) and Rayman Raving Rabbids. I got 12 games for my Wii and the only game that is a compilation is Wii-Play. All i hear these days is "Omgz we iz DOOOMed to play mini-gamez with da waggle controls FTL!" It's really pathetic. 3 mini game compilations means nothing.

as much as I love my PS3, with no new releases except movie games, THe only thing that could move PS3's is the 1.8 update. But then again, anyone ever buy a console because of a patch?
I doubt PS3's will break 100k either for may. Probably won't see an increase until the end of July barring anymore software delays.
Doom and gloom.....no
Slow patch....yes