More analysts predict PS3 ahead of Xbox in July

by Alexander Sliwinski { Aug 21st 2007 at 5:45PM }

Pachter ain't the only analyst predicting the July NPD numbers will show the PS3 has finally outsold the Xbox 360. Turns out Lazard's Colin Sebastian predicts the same thing, saying the PS3 price cut gave the console its expected sales bump for July, while the Xbox 360 hardware issues finally coming to light will cause sales to lag. The Wii and DS will keep doing what they do and make Nintendo gobs of cash.

Yes, you can all release your collective "duh" now, but it's still Sebastian's job to say it. He says Activision should see a 200% growth in July, based on Guitar Hero and Transformer sales, whereas EA should expect a 10% decline (remember, this doesn't involve Madden '08 money). Well, whatever the stars tell the analysts, all will be revealed this Thursday by the NPD numbers.

Tags: analyst, colinsebastian, lazard, pachter, predictions, sebastian

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)

Jouten @ Aug 21st 2007 5:51PM

Rubbish.

oriel @ Aug 21st 2007 5:53PM

yea i can believe that too ... but hey lets see what the fanboys have to say about it

JL @ Aug 21st 2007 5:54PM

Good. I hope PS3 sales really do pick up and force more competition for better games between the consoles. I've got both, so I'm set.

AlanRickman @ Aug 21st 2007 5:58PM

Wouldnt the PS3 be selling better nowadays because more people dont have a PS3, than dont have a 360?

Itd be like saying GMC has the best selling truck on the road this month, when virtually everybody but a few stragglers bought Fords last month.

Its all about the so-called "install base."

copa @ Aug 21st 2007 6:14PM

That logic assumes that Microsoft has achieved anything close to market saturation, which it has not.

AlanRickman @ Aug 21st 2007 6:25PM

No, thats assuming that Microsoft has a larger market share than Sony, which it does as far as seventh gen is concerned.

More people own a 360 than a PS3, so there are less 360 buyers available than PS3 buyers.

vidGuy @ Aug 21st 2007 6:33PM

No, that's assuming that potential 360 buyers and potential PS3 buyers come from the same pool. For all we know, there could be 10 times as many people who want a 360 and will buy one after a price drop as there are people who want a PS3 and are holding out.

If you simplify things and say everyone in the world is a potential customer, sure there are ~7 million more PS3 customers. Otherwise, your logic doesn't make much sense.

AlanRickman @ Aug 21st 2007 6:36PM

Youre saying everyone is NOT a potential customer?

So tell me, what is the number or percentage that is the total coveted install base? Fact is, even if you limit it to just gamers, more of them have the 360 than the PS3. Maybe if the Wii was thrown in, things would be different, but not amongst the hardcore.

vidGuy @ Aug 21st 2007 6:40PM

You know full well that any number/percentage would be made up so it's no use arguing. But let's take your logic to the extreme - "Wouldnt the Zune be selling better nowadays because more people dont have a Zune, than dont have an iPod?" Doesn't seem to work out, does it?

PS - You can be a hardcore gamer and still own a Wii. It's okay, they don't revoke your "hardcore" license at the store or anything.

AlanRickman @ Aug 21st 2007 6:45PM

Actually, I own a Wii, got one on launch day. Fact of the matter is, its selling to the non-hardcore also, which was my point, it has the potential to skew things.

I know full well there is no use arguing it. If you look at the world's population, there are more available PS3 customers. If you just look at gamers, there are most likely more available PS3 customers. So, why the backtalk then?

And yes, I would expect a month for the Zune to outsell the iPod, if we compare the current Zune to the current iPod, or some other apples to apples comparison.

vidGuy @ Aug 21st 2007 7:06PM

I see your point about the Wii. What I'm trying to say is that just because one product has a larger install base doesn't mean the other has more potential for sales. This is why copa's point about market saturation should have been the end of the argument. In both the 360/PS3 and the Zune/iPod examples, you are assuming that because many people own the one it precludes or hinders the future sales of it to other people. This would be true if the market was saturated. If there were 100 million XBOX 360's out there, I'd agree with you. But there's plenty of potential for more 360 sales. So while there may be (6 billion - 4 million) potential sales for the PS3 versus only (6 billion - 11 million) for the 360, does that 7 million difference really mean PS3 is likely to outsell the 360 in monthly sales?

hegemonyhog @ Aug 21st 2007 7:09PM

The problem with your statement is that all the current-gen systems have sold so relatively little that the economies of demand, objectively speaking, are all the same (but subjective to all sorts of market factors).

But if what you were saying were in any way accurate or logical, wouldn't the sales figures for the XBox or Gamecube have shot up in 2005/06? After all, the PS2 had, by that point, outsold each around 3 or 4:1.

Aarrowgant @ Aug 21st 2007 8:17PM

Foolish ones. Then why does DS outsell EVERYBODY even though it has a higher install base than the PS3 and XBOX360 combined? And dont say it is because it is a handheald! Oh shit... that's right, it is a handheld...

OK- another point... uh... the PS2 is selling well too and it has completely saturated the market.

TWiNKiE @ Aug 21st 2007 10:05PM

Don't forget about how crappy the 360 is doing in Japan.

Evan @ Aug 21st 2007 6:07PM

So what? NPD data showed the PSP outsold the DS for 10 of the 27 months that we have NPD data for both systems. Winning a couple of months doesn't mean anything about the overall success of a system.

Todd Rabanus @ Aug 21st 2007 6:06PM

the article reads that ps3 sold 164k units and xbox360 sold 137k units. ok a 27k difference. at that pace the ps3 will need a ten year life span to catch up to the 360. so why is this big news? simply put i hope we see NPD's numbers next month, after the 3 year warranty, 360 price drop, bioshock, madden (2x the framerate), new heatsinks. And the 360 price drop is permanent. The ps3 will be back up to $600 but includes extra 20gb. the 360 will make up that 27k units.

But really was funny was how they didn't report on this:
All Pro Football 2K8 (PS3) 31K copies
All Pro Football 2K8 (Xbox 360) 92K copies
Xbox 360 + 61k developers likey!

and this:
NCAA Football 08 (PS3) 111K copies
NCAA Football 08 (Xbox 360) 474K copies
XBOX 360 +363k copies! are you kidding me! look at that! you cannot tell me that this doesn't make developers get a hard on for picking the 360 over the PS3. Look at the freaking numbers. You wanna know why Madden on the 360 has 60fps. Besides the toilet paper roll called the cell. Look at the numbers. More people are playing the 360. 363k more sales with the same game.

But none the less the wii will outsell all because of it's quirkiness and family appeal

tmacairjordan87 @ Aug 21st 2007 6:18PM

you forgot to mention the retards who spend $60 on virtually the same sports games every year

dsalyers @ Aug 21st 2007 6:36PM

I don't know that the sales numbers for the PS3 versions of Madden/NCAA 08 mean much, given that both games are somewhat gimped graphics-wise for the PS3. I know a number of PS3 owners who decided to forgo this iteration of NCAA/Madden due to fact that the PS3 version is graphically inferior to the Xbox 360 version. This in addition to the numerous reports of bugs for both the 360/PS3 versions of the game.

The sales numbers of Ninja Gaiden Sigma (500,000+ in first month) show that PS3 owners are more then willing to buy games as long as they are not gimped versions of something available on other systems.

Anonim @ Aug 21st 2007 7:01PM

Actualy NGS sold ~190.000 to consumers to THIS DAY.
That 500.000 is units *produced*

And it is gimped - it's only a port of Xbox 1 game.
And not very good one BTW:
http://www.eurogamer.net/article.php?article_id=79093
http://www.eurogamer.net/article.php?article_id=75934

Software upscaled, framerate,loading times,etc.
As always PS3 get short stick.

dsalyers @ Aug 21st 2007 8:12PM

I am not sure where the 190,000 comes from. Tecmo's press release says 500,000 units in circulation (but, you may be right -- I don't know).

I see you picked the one review that gave it the lowest score. Check out
http://www.metacritic.com/games/platforms/ps3/ninjagaidensigma

for a more complete view of the game. I do agree with some of the comments made about the game. Although, I will choose to trust the developer when he says that Sigma was not a port, but a rewrite of the original game. Also, I question if the reviewer knows what he is talking about in terms of software scaling because 1) he doesn't mention any actual examples of the so called "scaling issues". 2) the software scaling listed in the article is accurate, you would never render something in those resolutions (1280x1080 and 1440x1080) and then scale it to 1920x1080 as that would be changing the aspect ratio and make it look really wrong.

vidGuy @ Aug 21st 2007 6:07PM

Yeah, July was probably a better month for the PS3. I wonder if 360 sales will show much of a lift in August with the price drop or if those looking for a 360 are holding off on account of hardware news.

phattie @ Aug 21st 2007 6:16PM

The 360 price drop will have less of an impact.

Its a smaller drop overall, and its still the same old RRoD prone system.. regardless of the 3 year warranty, people dont want to spend money on overheating crap. ie. the price drop doesnt address the RRoD issues.

Also, 360 has been out for an entire year longer and was already significantly cheaper than PS3.. there is less pent up demand from people holding out for a price drop... ie. are people holding out on xbox360 for almost 2 years for a $30-50 price drop?

vidGuy @ Aug 21st 2007 6:25PM

I generally agree. PS3 needs price drops, 360 doesn't. A $50 (max) price drop on the 360 is nice but I don't think it makes people suddenly sit up. Then again, I don't think a $100 "drop" on a still $500 system is that exciting, either.

Thing is, new hardware is saturating the market and they aren't prone to RRoD. So after the 360's 'clearance sale', the 360's on the market will have less than a 1% RRoD rate. The difference, I think, will be in the games. PS3 is still a purchase for the hardware. In August 360 has the best Madden and a near-perfect release in Bioshock. Plus Halo 3 and others coming out in the fall.

All in all, I think July will be the PS3's only 'winning' month for a long time.

Ska Oreo @ Aug 21st 2007 11:02PM

@phattie.

Actually you're wrong. If you check the last few NPD's, you'll find that the 360 has been selling much more than the ps3. Even when most people knew about the problem, people were still buying the console. Why? Because people feel safe with the three year warranty. Knowing that microsoft will provide them a new console, is enough for people to purchase one.

Ihya @ Aug 21st 2007 6:14PM

More than likely true I'd say. Price reduction results in a sales spike - no brainer.

T-bone and Razor @ Aug 21st 2007 6:14PM

Again, i'd bet on it, PS3 gained momentum with a bigger game-of-the-month and the price drop, while 360's momentum was stalled with price-drop rumors and nothing particularly compelling software wise (except Marathon, but that's a bit esoteric)

Ska Oreo @ Aug 21st 2007 10:57PM

Even so, remember Halo 3 is coming out in September and I think the $50 price drop for all versions of teh 360 convinced people to purchase the console before Halo 3.

I think that while the ps3 may have sold more in July, I wouldn't be surprised if the August NPD showed the 360 selling much more than the ps3.

WiseGuy (formally The Truth) @ Aug 21st 2007 6:18PM

Here we go again. What do you want, a cookie? Is this another sign of Sony's huge success and dominance in the market.. because of JULY 2007 numbers?? Rumors were floating around about price cuts, new and better hardware (including Halo SKU 360's).... Why would anyone buy a 360 in July?? Not to mention, let's see numbers for August with..

1)new 360 SKU's (HDMI, heatsinks, price cuts)

2)Release of BioShock, Two Worlds, Tiger 08, Madden 08, Stranglehold, Blue Dragon.

Or how about September

1)Halo SKU 360 released

2)Enternal Sonata, PGR4, and what do you know.. HALO 3 RELEASED!!!!!!

You can have July if it makes you PS3fanboys feel better. 360 can have the rest of this season.. how bout that?!?!?

Grindstone @ Aug 21st 2007 6:18PM

Not without a significant price drop -- PS3 will not be leading anywhere. No doubt some of the upcoming games will drive in more interest, but $600 is still too pricey for casual gamers, and they are the core market for console hegemony.

vidGuy @ Aug 21st 2007 6:30PM

**Cue the SDF** "But it's only USD$500 NOW!"

yeah, PS3 sales will pick up when it hits USD$299, but will there be any point to owning one then?

WiseGuy (formally The Truth) @ Aug 21st 2007 6:25PM

@ phattie

"Its a smaller drop overall, and its still the same old RRoD prone system.. regardless of the 3 year warranty, people dont want to spend money on overheating crap. ie. the price drop doesnt address the RRoD issues."

The price drop comes with new hardware. Don't know if you pay attention to NEW HEATSINKS, REVISED MOTHERBOARDS, HDMI, AND SOON 65NM processors.

Don't bring that RROD crap back in the equation because you don't know what you're talking about. I think Microsoft has figured out by now that if they plan on staying on top, revisions to the hardware will have to be made. Elites have been released since May, any reports on RROD???? The new SKU's use that same motherboard configuration along with new heatsinks. Nice try though.

Zeus the God @ Aug 21st 2007 7:04PM

Don't worry about him. Hes an ignorant fanboy/troll who will try to crack on the 360 at any chance he can get.

He denies all truths for lies, and spreads them.

Time @ Aug 21st 2007 6:35PM

ok, now that is just sad....I want the ps3 to do well I really do, but come on....no games, still expensive and still an unproven format?....I don't care how to try to spin it.."new 360s are on the way so no one wants to buy one". yeah and the ps3 is still expensive and still has no GAMES....that is just bad for the 360 if it really was outsold buy the ps3...even by just one console

Todd Rabanus @ Aug 21st 2007 6:41PM

wiseguy you took the words right out of my mouth. Anybody getting a new system will not have a problem. buy one tonight and you'll go rrod free. I just got a new revised 360 from microsoft friday from an rrod. RRODs are soon gonna be a thing of the past. I have all 3 systems (my PS3 makes a good decoration when dusted off) but I have to say that PS3 is gonna come in last. And its heavy hitters like MGS4 won't be out til next holiday season! Oh well I gotta go get Bioshock

Loc @ Aug 22nd 2007 2:47AM

When a person makes comments such as XXX console makes a good decoration, collecting dust, etc., it's a good indication that he's making it up.

baby sea tuna @ Aug 22nd 2007 9:08AM

Not really. I've probably booted up my Wii less than 30 times (the most recent of which was well over a month ago) since I got it at launch. I'd say that counts as a dust collector.

vidGuy @ Aug 22nd 2007 11:59AM

I finally booted up the 360 for something other than a demo/beta all summer. It too was collecting dust.

Blu-Sam @ Aug 21st 2007 6:47PM

I wish I was big

jjmcubed @ Aug 22nd 2007 9:19PM

hey blu-sam? Are we the only ones old enough to remember the movie?

Derka @ Aug 21st 2007 7:02PM

Between the Ps3 Price cut and everyone holding out on getting a 360 until the price cut/falcon technology, and various other hardware revision(HDMI on premiums) are implemented, it was bound to happen.

RyanD @ Aug 21st 2007 7:05PM

How much did Sony pay the NPD to say that?

gamernewz.net @ Aug 21st 2007 7:13PM

Its gonna ring pretty hallow in the next few months when a million people that have been waiting for Halo get a 360.

....the hallow/Halo thing is an accident i swear

gamernewz.net @ Aug 21st 2007 7:35PM

hollow....DOH!

mORTEN81 @ Aug 21st 2007 7:20PM

I just think it's sad. I hated the old xbox, but this one just has all the right titles. Sales in my country (denmark) are beginning to be in favour of the PS3. It's even outselling the WII. They've fought, microsoft has, but I think the Playstation name is just so much associated with the term "videogame", and consumers and casual gamersjust tend to pick the system with a famillar name. Also, here anyways, the avarage consumer seems to be a little slow in the uptake regarding new technology. The Blue Ray HD movie thing is starting to sink in, and when people ask where they can get a player the PS3 comes to mind, or they see a PS3 add with a blue ray drive or whatever.. The fact that it's a periphial(?) or add-on for the 360 makes it less accesable. Even though the collective price is the same as a PS3. Don't forget the PS2 drove the DVD medium forward even though the PS2 cost alot back then.