Analyst madness: Halo 3 selling three million fast and $399 PS3 at TGS

by Alexander Sliwinski { Sep 14th 2007 at 2:26PM }

The analysts have all come popping up from their respective holes following yesterday's NPD numbers to say a couple of words before going back in and waiting by their fax machines for the next month. The message conveyed? August's much better than expected sales were far from the norm. simExchange analyst Jesse Divnich said that slowdown is typically expected before a major release like Halo 3 -- and that totally didn't happen. It seems this holiday season could be "spectacular, spectacular" even if GTA IV decided to miss the holiday party.

As for the nitty gritty, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter was very happy with the Mirror's predictions and trusted it yet again to forecast that Halo 3 will sell three million units in less than two weeks. It also suggested that Xbox 360 sales in Sept. will be over 400k. The simExchange said that Xbox will outsell PS3 2-to-1 in September, adding that Sony's system needs to be more compelling to consumers (another price drop wouldn't hurt, apparently). That's where Pachter jumps in again with rumors of a 40GB PS3 at $399 and a $99 PS2 being announced at the Tokyo Games Show next week.

Other analysts chimed in too, err, chiming that the Wii third-party titles aren't selling well. Divnich said, "The market continues to imply that Wii consumers prefer Nintendo published titles for the Wii over third-party ports like Madden NFL 08 and Tiger Woods PGA Tour 08, even if the ported version includes functions that take advantage of the Wii's control system." We're not too sure yet if given the choice, consumers would take an alternate control scheme over the instant gratification of a familiar (and prettier) product.

Buy teh Haloz -- Travis Johnson

Tags: pachter, ps3, simexchange, tgs, tgs07, wii, xbox360

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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)

Matt @ Sep 14th 2007 2:33PM

I don't prefer nintendo published titles, I just don't like ports that look ugly on the last gen systems.

Dan @ Sep 14th 2007 3:33PM

That's a good point. People may be willing to forgive the poor graphics for games like wii sports and zelda, because the gameplay is great, but nobody wants shit graphics + shit gameplay.

The article should have said:
"The market continues to imply that Wii consumers prefer good titles for the Wii over third-party shit-fests like Madden NFL 08 and Tiger Woods PGA Tour 08"

Calviin @ Sep 14th 2007 3:52PM

Newsflash! Consumers don't want shitty ports! News still not getting through to game developers/publishers!

Shagittarius @ Sep 14th 2007 4:32PM

What time is it?
4:30
Its not late, no, nah...Its just early.

Use a little english to doctor the spin.

mike @ Sep 14th 2007 2:34PM

It makes you wonder. If games like mario zelda and smash bros came out for the 360 and ps3, would anyone at all care about the wii?

Basically, Are people even buying the wii for the motion controls, or the 1st party nintendo games?

Truepatriot @ Sep 14th 2007 2:42PM

since the n64 the only you buy a nintendo system(excluding portables) is for first party games.

i dont think we will see a 400$ ps3 this year.
a consoles price drop is not gonna affect a game.

Truepatriot @ Sep 14th 2007 2:43PM

/sigh
i need to proof read
*since the 64 the only reason to buy a......(read previous comment)....

samfish @ Sep 14th 2007 2:51PM

If those games came out on non-Nintendo systems, the Nintendtrolls would all pop the biggest boners of their lives.

All the bitching about Nintendo "whoring" their franchises out? It would end faster than you can blink.
"What?! *I* never said I was sick of Mario! Mario's great! OTHER people, maybe..."
Zelda would be recognized as the great series it is, rather than chided as "played out".
Metroid would instead be favorably compared to Halo 3.
Smash Bros would no long be derided as "a party game", but instead compared fondly to Tekken or VF.

AstroZombie @ Sep 14th 2007 2:51PM

I'll admit that the Big N's 1st party stuff is a major draw for me, although there are third-party games coming soon that I'm looking forward to.

Slaziman @ Sep 14th 2007 3:42PM

The Wii wouldn't have ever been in my radar without the Big N franchises. It's all it has, at least for me.

Become a third party developer Nintendo, PLEASE

Calviin @ Sep 14th 2007 4:02PM

Good point, maybe they are just buying it for Mario, Zelda and Smash Bros.

Oh wait, you mean Wii Play, Resident Evil 4 & WarioWare: Smooth Moves have all been on the NPD's top selling list? Well, I guess Mario, Zelda and Smash Bros aren't the only reason people have bought a Wii.

megaStryke @ Sep 14th 2007 4:06PM

And why should they go third-party? Their stuff sells the best on the hardware THEY make, which is also selling better than the competition. What incentive would they have to just go, "Whelp... we had a good run, so pack your shit, we're goin' freelance"?

By the way, you love your DS. Tell me, did you love it all throughout year one?

Rubang B (NDF - Heart) @ Sep 14th 2007 4:40PM

I didn't have a GameCube, or any 6th gen console for that matter, not even a GBA. I played StarCraft for years. The second I heard about the motion controls and saw that teaser video I knew I had to have it. The CONTROLS alone sold me. I went and got in a line for 5 hours and pre-ordered one. On launch day I picked it up and by the end of the year I had 4 remotes, 4 nunchucks, a classic controller, Wii Sports, Zelda, Red Steel, Rayman, Metal Slug Anthology, Trauma Center, and Elebits, and now I have even more. I've got 12 VC games too, mostly TurboGrafx-16 and Genesis games I missed back in the day.

I alone made up for 10 retirement homes that only have Wii Sports.

DaiMac79 @ Sep 14th 2007 2:34PM

If the pack in disc is NOT Spiderman 3, then a $400 PS3 might be a good purchase for me. If it is, well that movie was sad and disappointing, I'd almost rather have Talledega Nights. Sony will hopefully do the right thing and pack in a game, put Resistance in there and they've got a deal I won't pass up.

Calviin @ Sep 14th 2007 4:05PM

I'll pick it up if they'll drop it to 300.00

But I've always said that.

NATO_Duke @ Sep 14th 2007 2:34PM

In advance - sorry for this to the NDF.

That being out of the way, when it comes to 3rd party Wii titles, if I am looking at a version on the PS3 or 360 vs the Wii, I go for the best looking one. So I would guess that is pretty common. You want the most for your dollars spent. This shouldn't shock the analysts - heck, people buy HD tv's in increasing numbers and want to validate that spending with pretty visuals too.

jorojoserojas @ Sep 14th 2007 2:43PM

I'll contradict you, but yeah, you have a very valid point.

But I actually rented (I never buy sim sports games) Madden, and I rented it for Wii. I was a fan of the control scheme in '07, and I think they did a much better job this time around.

But, that being said, I would imagine that it's true: most people would go for the better looking game.

I just want to stress that it doesn't necessarily make Wii games "bad" if they don't look as good as a 360 or PS3 game.

hvnlysoldr (NDF - Wind Ring) @ Sep 14th 2007 2:44PM

meh

Rubang B (NDF - Heart) @ Sep 14th 2007 4:51PM

Since I'm of the rare breed of humans that plays video games with my HANDS and not my EYES, when I compare two games I prefer the one with the more intuitive and more immersive control scheme. As much as you might dislike "waggle," flailing your arms about is a more natural motion in the real world than sitting perfectly still and slightly moving your thumbs.

NorCal05 @ Sep 15th 2007 1:24AM

I would like to see you play video games with your hands and without your eyes

Rubang B (NDF - Heart) @ Sep 15th 2007 7:48PM

SoundVoyager?

phattie @ Sep 14th 2007 2:39PM

360: gamers... look at the insane attach rate

PS3: some gamers and mix AV phobs..

Wii: casual gamers and ppl who grew up with Nintendo... look at the attach rate hovering around 1.0; where most of those are Nintendo games

samfish @ Sep 14th 2007 2:57PM

That, of course, would likely change if there were more good NON-Nintendo games.

As opposed to the shovelware shit pit that is infesting the Wii now, for the most part.

AstroZombie @ Sep 14th 2007 3:04PM

360: has had a whole extra year to build a library.

phattie: has nightmares about the RROD.

Wii: it prints money.

Beef: it's what's for dinner.

borland502 (SDF - Macross Ring) @ Sep 14th 2007 3:05PM

@samfish: Is that shovelware shit-pit what is making the system sell like gangbusters though? I mean that casual crap is all that is tempting me from the SDF path.

Rubang B (NDF - Heart) @ Sep 14th 2007 5:00PM

Go AstroZombie go!

tactics @ Sep 14th 2007 6:18PM

BitchX: Little. Yellow. Different.

-"superfan" tactics.

bladev1 (XDF - With Honors) @ Sep 14th 2007 2:44PM

This is Why MS is beating Sony: A long time ago....

MS Employee: Ok guys, we got a fantastic franchise that will move systems, but it wont be out till '07, we need something in between..

MS Employee 2: Well, we can offer some other great games and new IPs, Like GoW, Dead Rising, BioShock...

MS Employee: Fantastic...lets keep the games coming!

Mean while at Sony HQ...

Sony Employee: So what should we do?

Sony Employee 2: Nothing, people will buy the PS3 even if theres no games! HAHAHAHA

Sony Employee: HAHAHAHA, you SFD boy, like my toes and I will show you the KillZone2 trailer from E3...

Mean While at Nintendo

Nintendo Employee: I hear it prints money!

hvnlysoldr (NDF - Wind Ring) @ Sep 14th 2007 2:45PM

PK FIRE!

blooh @ Sep 14th 2007 2:42PM

i didnt even bother reading this, these analysts always just say what companies should do. sony is always too dumb so the analysts are usually wrong

Gamer98 @ Sep 14th 2007 2:47PM

There is really nothing Sony can do this holiday but bend over its going to be horrible.

blooh @ Sep 14th 2007 2:53PM

unless they can trick people into thinking the ps3 is better than 360, yeah. their big games aren't coming out til next year. pwn

hvnlysoldr (NDF - Wind Ring) @ Sep 14th 2007 2:47PM

Come on Sony and just drop your prices. As long as I associate 599 USD to you I just can't buy your system. I loved some of the games that were on there but we've grown apart.

Neptune @ Sep 14th 2007 2:53PM

I know I will regret asking this, but why 599 dollars?

REUYL @ Sep 14th 2007 3:40PM

FIVE HUNDRED AND NINETY NINE U.S. DOLLARS!

Mindlog @ Sep 14th 2007 2:50PM

"Confessions of a Wall Street Analyst: A True Story of Inside Information and Corruption in the Stock Market" is a pretty interesting book if you haven't read it yet and speaks to the validity of 'rumors' from time to time ;\

xXFenixKnight13Xx @ Sep 14th 2007 2:52PM

Whos paying these analysts and where can I apply because these predictions are no brainers. "Halo will move systems" Noooooooooooooo SHIT!!!!!!!!!!

Korova @ Sep 14th 2007 3:25PM

do you know excel. do you like dressing in a three piece suit and wear a monocle occasionally for extra fuck you points? then you have what it takes to be a wall street video gaming analyst

lets open up our own research firm and finally sell quality research on vid game. Lets call it Deep Joy.

Shagittarius @ Sep 14th 2007 2:57PM

Hey this is my 1010th post!

AstroZombie @ Sep 14th 2007 3:05PM

Wow, troll much?

I kid.

Shagittarius @ Sep 14th 2007 3:13PM

Thanks,

I thought this would be a good time to commemorate your first post since you attacked me in it:

'Jul 18th 2007 2:12PM @ Shagittarius: STFU, nobody wants to hear you brag about how rich your parents are.'

AstroZombie @ Sep 14th 2007 3:20PM

OH SHIT, I'm on Shaggi's list!!!

I don't remember what that was about. What thread was it on?

Word of the street. @ Sep 14th 2007 3:33PM

Thats a lot of spam kid.

J/K :P

AstroZombie @ Sep 14th 2007 3:38PM

Found it. Yeah, that was a pretty obnoxious post.

hvnlysoldr (NDF - Wind Ring) @ Sep 14th 2007 4:36PM

I'm way WAY too lazy to sift through my 3406 comments to find my first one but it goes something with "So as a zombie you naturally went onto a blog and told us how you died."

Shagittarius @ Sep 14th 2007 4:54PM

I found it for you hvnly:

Its in refernce to that flash cardgame speed cluster:

'Feb 23rd 2007 11:42PM 126,960 level 29 max combo 19 card count 275
Good game'

I'm sure you have better but I can't find any =P

Mr Khan @ Sep 14th 2007 4:56PM

@ hvnlysoldr

you probably don't want to sift through them because at least 1/3 of them have to have something to do with pirates, ninjas, eye patches, or Night Vision...

Rubang B (NDF - Heart) @ Sep 14th 2007 5:27PM

I wish I knew what my first post was, but my first account got deleted in January after I had a little quarrel with Vlad. I went from Rubang to Rubang 2, then that got deleted, and now I'm Rubang B. Luckily, Rubang B is actually my nickname in real life. Don't ask. I bet my first comment was something like "Holy crap the Wii's gonna have motion controls zomg!"

Shagittarius @ Sep 14th 2007 5:35PM

Rubang heres your first post as Rubang B:

'Jan 10th 2007 9:07PM @2, If you subtract 40 million copies of SMB1 (NES pack-in) and 17 million copies of SMW (SNES pack-in), you'd still have 136 million Mario games sold. Still right behind Pokémon and still over double Final Fantasy. This is assuming that 100% of the copies of SMB1 and SMW were pack-ins.

(numbers from same Wikipedia article as this list)'

Your pretty consistent with the Nintendo FUD =P

samfish @ Sep 14th 2007 6:06PM

I had two accounts I used before the screen name thing and could only remember one password, so my post count is a bit lower than it should be at this point.

I think, though, that I instead first chose the name 'Cummer' and Sheppy got all offended and told me to change my name.

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