Halo 3 expected to make $200 million

1 MILLION Dollars!

That was my prediction when MS said they're going for $155 million in one day.

I think they'll do $200 Mill in the first day.

Good, I think Spiderman 3 has the biggest opening weekend at $148 million...maybe this will get the H3 movie rolling again (although it would be a late release now, what's Peter Jackson working on again?)

I doubt it. At the very most between $150-175.

Halo 3: WE CAN PRINT OUR OWN MONEY!

http://www.gamestooge.com/2007/08/09/microsoft-can-commence-rolling-around-in-money-for-halo-3-part-ii/

Yeah i am sure it will do that and maybe more. Its a huge game that will probably win game of the year.

I dunno about that. Mass Effect may sneak away with the prize.

its obvious they'll make 200 Million. The legendary is only $130. and i know every fan boy and 12 year old kid are going to try to get that. plus the Limited is $70. sooo, i wouldnt be surprised. And they're going to beat Spidermans sales recored. a ticket is only like, $7. (depends where your at)

$7 ticket Doc!??? That's a bargain where I'm at (Chicago), average around here is $10 :(

$10 ?!?!??!?!?

We pay $14 where I am !!! WTF ?!?!?!?!

I'm not gonna repeat all of the America bullshit....Breathe....................... ARRRRRRRGHHH !!!!

"its obvious they'll make 200 Million. The legendary is only $130. and i know every fan boy and 12 year old kid are going to try to get that." umm arent you posting on a fanboy site hippie? this Proud fanboy ordered it way back when and I cannot wait.

Ohh yeah this guy is a REAL genius 4 mill preorders X 50 = 200. OMG wow and that doesn't even figure for legendary editions. Super smart.

7 Dollars at my local cinema because I"m a 'student' at the college there, and have been for 6 years, and I've yet to attend that college.

Anyways, yeah, I think this game will break any and all milestones for any thing every downloaded.

ok let's do some math :

US$200M / US$60 a pop = 3.33M copies sold.

1.0M preorders already accounted for so that leaves 2.3M that would have to sell on day one. How many retail outlets are selling this game? Every US Wal-Mart, Target, Gamestop, EB Games, Best Buy, Circuit City among other places.

Let's say Wal-Mart stocks it in 2500 stores, Target 1100, Best Buy 1400, Circuit City 600, Gamestop 4500 (store counts per Wikipedia)

ok, so at LEAST 2500+1100+1400+600+4500 locations in the US will have copies of Halo 3 on day 1.

That's about 10,000 retail outlets.

2.3M / 10,000 = 230 copies per location.

that's aggressive to say the least,

but i acknowledge the number of retail outlets may be understated by as much as half,

so cut the 230 per store to 115 per store - that's still a really agressive number ON TOP of all the preorders for a single day.

just to provide perspective, halo2 was $125M at a time when games cost $50.

That's 125M / 50 = 2.5M copies so it's not out of the question but it's still a massive jump of units sold. (3.3M up from 2.5M is a 33% increase)

couple that with this being less than 2 years after console launch as opposed to Halo 2's 3 years after console launch and the higher console price at the time of game release and I just don't see this $200M thing happening.

last check there are 1M preorders not 4M

the legendary edition is not going to be the primary sku by any stretch of the imagination - hence the change should not be material to the overall numbers.

and thanks for the genius comment - i needed that to brighten my day.

Pre-orders have gone FAR past 4 million. I'm not sure if you guys know, but there live other people outside of the usa. And yes, they play games too!

I made a new, improved Halo 3 money shot:

http://tinyurl.com/3xqe2h

Hey Jason, in your locations you missed 7-11. I'm not sure how many units each will sell, but I do think there are a few 7-11's around. :)

I believe this figures relate to the US only, we're trying to break 1st day sales record of $125 mill (Halo 2) and $148 mill (Spiderman 3).

"the legendary edition is not going to be the primary sku by any stretch of the imagination - hence the change should not be material to the overall numbers." Look, the fact you used the term "material" makes me think you're an accounting guy. I'm an accounting guy. But we can't ignore the "Finance" guys who say that the Legendary and Limited at $139 and $70 a pop do make a huge difference in the pricing and revenue scheme. And it does make a huge difference from the "Finance" perspective.

But we can't ignore the "Finance" guys who say that the Legendary and Limited at $139 and $70 a pop do make a huge difference in the pricing and revenue scheme. And it does make a huge difference from the "Finance" perspective.

Drew, actually I'm an SFA at a bank, not accounting, yuck. If you want to pigeon hole me, please refer to me as an economist. Thanks.

The materiality of the higher priced SKU's are insignificant due to the quantities produced and available for sale. Out of the 3.3M expected sales only a tiny fraction are going to be the "super" $130 SKU and the $60/$70 SKU's are identical to last time when they also had two SKU's so the differences wash out in the comparison.

Draw it up in Excel - you'll see what I mean.

and how many copies of a $60 video game is a 7-11 going to stock?

3 per store? 6 per store? that's like ten times their average unit sale price. that doesn't make sense for 7-11 but i understand why they did it.