DFC predicts bright future for games, dim one for Xbox 360
Another day, another extremely long-range analysis of the video game market's future. This time the prediction comes from DFC Intelligence through a press release stating the total worldwide market for video games could grow to a staggering $47 billion by 2009 (from $33 billion in 2006). DFC foresees the strongest growth coming from the PC market (driven by online game revenue) and the portable market (driven by the Nintendo DS, which "could eventually become the best selling game system ever in five years" according to DFC's David Cole).That's nice about the industry growth and all, but the real red meat for the fanboys comes later in the release, when DFC reveals they've lowered their forecast for the performance of the Xbox 360. The currently-hot system "will need to build a strong base outside North America to avoid being in a fairly distant third," Cole said in a statement sure to rile up the Microsoft Defense Forces. As for the battle for first, Cole thinks the Wii will dominate through 2008 with the PS3 coming on strong in 2009, possibly leading to an odd long-term situation where Nintendo has sold more hardware but Sony generates more software revenue.
We at Joystiq think this all this prognosticating is a bit shortsighted. After all, it doesn't take into account how the surging interest in the Dreamcast will lead to Sega's triumphant return to the hardware market and eventual domination of the same by 2023. Hey, if analysts can make wild, long-term predictions, then so can we!
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
blooh (CDF - Ass Ring) @ Sep 19th 2007 9:04PM
haha go dreamcast, shine on you crazy diamond
(i only ever played one for 5 minutes in a mall eb games)
i don't care if 360 doesnt do well outside of america, because I'm here and it's got a ton of great games right now :) I'm ass-deep in games I still have yet to play
ackmondual @ Sep 19th 2007 11:58PM
Well, it wouldn't hurt M$ to have more international business. They did invest a lot of time, $$, and resources, so best to reap max rewards
rombronxpana @ Sep 19th 2007 9:05PM
The 360 is like a giant parade ballon floating about a city, but has a teeny-tiny hole leaking air out. Japan is the hole. It may take a while, but if the hole continues to leak, MS is in a heap'a trouble.
Microdot @ Sep 19th 2007 9:14PM
agreed.
i actually think this analysis is pretty sound. my opinion on the wii is a little different (making a strong second place as opposed to selling more hardware - face it, it has a shorter lifespan) but id agree with everything pretty much.
Wes @ Sep 20th 2007 1:40AM
I guess then using your Parade Balloon analogy, the PS3 would be a Balloon based of a certain peice of the male anatomy. Its made disportionately large, hasn't made it off the ground and always seems to be flaccid.
Brandon @ Sep 19th 2007 9:07PM
I kind of agree with their predictions. There will eventually come a time where the 360 will hit a ceiling, while PS3 games will still be improving in visual fidelity. As for the wii, it remains to be seen if the software will live up to the potential of the hardware.
maylon @ Sep 19th 2007 9:38PM
There will eventually come a time where the 360 will hit a ceiling, while PS3 games will still be improving in visual fidelity.
Are people still buying that the Ps3 is that much more powerful than 360? I don't have the strength to explain the parity between the two machines anymore. Just keep believing that Brandon.
jsn @ Sep 19th 2007 11:54PM
seriously, the ps3 is no more powerful than the 360. The processor is nothing but theory without any real world to back it up and the graphics chip is much less powerful.
The 360 doesn't need japan to be the best selling high end console on the market for years to come. This generation IS NOT last generation.
LAZoftheTamarinds @ Sep 19th 2007 9:09PM
The only thing I hope for the XBOX 360 is that they keep releasing games for it even if they release a new system. Microsoft stopped making games for the xbox shortly after the 360 released. The ps2 however is still getting games.
SKI @ Sep 19th 2007 9:54PM
Microsoft stopped making games for the xbox shortly after the 360 released.
That's because they wanted to forget that failure as fast as possible.
The ps2 however is still getting games.
That's the magic of selling 110 million+.
Ska Oreo @ Sep 19th 2007 9:55PM
That's mostly because the ps2 was a runaway success which allowed Sony to keep it alive a lot longer(but face it, Sony will have to kill it in an effort to convert those still buying ps2's over to the ps3). But don't expect this type of longevity for all sony's console. The ps2 is the only exception.
Ska Oreo @ Sep 19th 2007 10:14PM
@ski
I wouldn't call the Xbox a failure. It did pretty fucking well for Microsoft's first time in the console race.
ruibing @ Sep 19th 2007 9:10PM
I'm waiting for the fight come December this year. It should be very interesting.
mfed3 @ Sep 19th 2007 9:12PM
dear analysts and everyone about to post fanboy comments:
STFU and read the sales figures. nobody knows what is going to happen. agree?
rombronxpana @ Sep 19th 2007 9:39PM
Yes, look at Japan's sales figures. It's selling well everywhere else, but if things continue the way they are in Nippon-land, things might not look so good in a couple of years...
mike @ Sep 20th 2007 1:32AM
whats funny is so many americans seem to care if the 360 does well in japan. WEll guess what, If 360 fails in japan, it just means little to no japanese tailored games, which as 360 owners, are not our priority anyway. If you want japanese games, buy a ps3. if you want japanese games with motion remote, buy a wii. If your american and want american games with the odd japanese game, buy a 360. Besides, games like RE and dead rising from capcom will always remain on the 360 regardless of japan because capcom may be a japanese developer, but they speak the universal launguage of money. And while Japan cant care less about the 360, they cans till sell 1 million + copies of dead rising 2 in NA and Europe. As a 360 owner, I say forget Japan.
I look at my favorite games for the 360 like halo 3, GOW, Dead rising, too human and mass effect. Then I ask myself, "What if the 360 was not for sale in Japan, would I still get to play these games?" Well the answer is yes.
I suppose if your favorite games are project sylpheed, Ninety Nine nights and blue dragon, then you might be concerned about the 360s success in japan. But then ask yourself, why dont you just go buy a ps3 if you like those sorts of games?
Dan @ Sep 19th 2007 9:13PM
Regardless of how correct this particular videogame prophecy will turn out to be, it's sure not going to seem like MS is losing this winter. Furthermore, the numbers for last month suggest that MS is doing well...at least they are finally excelling past the PS2! I don't really give a rats, so many games are coming out for the 360 that for now I'm happy waiting till 2009 for the PS3!
Irwin @ Sep 19th 2007 9:15PM
remember when an analyst said that the 360's attach rate wasnt a good thing and it would quickly fall behind as only hardcore gamers play the 360?
hmm, 360 sales are going pretty well atm tbh.
Guybrush Threepwood @ Sep 19th 2007 9:15PM
Dreamcast 2 - 9/9/09
It's Still Thinking
blooh (CDF - Ass Ring) @ Sep 19th 2007 9:17PM
ahahahaha
+1
Count Noobula @ Sep 19th 2007 11:34PM
LOL.
Speaking of the Dreamcast, I might buy one from this little hole in the wall that specializes in classic gaming. That system was awesome. Its too bad that Sega didn't get the fanbase up. Almost every developer loved that machine. Campcom and SNK gave it a crazy amount of support back then.
Agent4187 @ Sep 19th 2007 9:19PM
Analysts: People who listen to that weird drunk in the bar.
Jeff @ Sep 19th 2007 9:23PM
As long as 360 continues to dominate (actual) gamers in America, I don't forsee much trouble.
PC gaming getting the most growth is nice to hear.
lessbiasedthanmost @ Sep 19th 2007 9:36PM
As long as 360 continues to dominate (actual) gamers in America, I don't forsee much trouble.
Actual gamers? Am I to believe that you mean only the US has "actual" gamers or have you never heard of a couple of countries named Korea?
Jeff @ Sep 19th 2007 9:59PM
It was a potshot at the wii and casual gamers.
No disrespect meant to (actual) gamers from other countries.
Ska Oreo @ Sep 19th 2007 10:25PM
oh shut up. It doesn't matter what kind of gamer, whether you're a hardcore gamer, a mainstream gamer, or a casual gamer, you're still a gamer.
Ska Oreo @ Sep 19th 2007 10:25PM
it doesn't matter what kind of gamer they are. That's what I meant.
Jamie @ Sep 19th 2007 10:31PM
If only "actual gamers" count, it's in some weird imaginary realm where nobody else spends money.
phattie @ Sep 19th 2007 9:31PM
M$ needs to shell out more ca$h to secure exclusives... to the point that the only games on PS3 are Sony published games... they have the cash reserves, they can do it today.
GTA4 episodic and NG2 are good starts.
Zeus the God @ Sep 19th 2007 11:47PM
Seriously Phattie, why do you continue to post? Why don't you kill your online account here, and leave. You're nothing more than a fanboy.
Zeus the God @ Sep 19th 2007 11:47PM
Seriously Phattie, why do you continue to post? Why don't you kill your online account here, and leave. You're nothing more than a fanboy.
JET @ Sep 19th 2007 9:36PM
That seems like a very safe guess. I've been saying for what feels like forever that 360 simply cannot succeed with its low worldwide sales numbers. It sells well in the US; roughly 60% of its sales have been here. Successful consoles have a roughly even distribution in the US, Japan, and Europe. PS2 had that, PSP has that, DS has that, Wii has that, and PS3 has that. I can't envision any scenario where 360 exceeds 15m consoles worldwide. It'll have a cracking Christmas in the US, but I expect Wii will easily outsell it and it will be in a virtual dead heat with the $399 PS3.
Keep in mind as well that PS3 is still hugely expensive in Europe and it still sells well. Sony has a lot of pricing opportunities in that region; once they get aggressive with pricing sales will take off.
A shame, really, because 360 had great potential. Its US-centric library and defective hardware has hurt it tremendously on the global market. How long can MS bleed money to stay in the gaming market?
JET
maylon @ Sep 19th 2007 9:41PM
Just shut up and sit down before you hurt yourself, Jet.
JLynx @ Sep 21st 2007 1:13PM
Based off your thinking...
If a company makes a console and sells 5 of them in the US, 5 in Japan, and 5 in Europe the console would be declared successful?
Ed @ Sep 19th 2007 10:01PM
You forget that he has the power to see the future and the ability to be right all the time.
Silent Xenocide @ Sep 20th 2007 12:35AM
So you're saying the 360 won't sell more than 15 million units worldwide? Even though the original Xbox did? With an even way more US-centric game base?
Dave @ Sep 19th 2007 9:42PM
No amount of analysis in the world is going to make gamers buy a console lacking in decent games--particularly when another console costing less money has a larger library and comparable graphical ability. The analysts will continue to predict the 360 will be in last place--and they will continue to be wrong. Until or unless the PS3 significantly improves its library, things are unlikely to change.
mccomber @ Sep 19th 2007 10:17PM
See: the rest of 2007. And 2008. And the Sony-owned franchises that will make their appearance on the ps3. I'm not sure what I look forward to more; the games coming out for the ps3, or the day when the "there's no good games!" argument is finally put to rest.
Myke @ Sep 19th 2007 10:30PM
People never look what is past their face...
You can stop being gullible now. Console wars are never won in the present. Its won in the future.
The future wont be bright to the PS3 until they fix the price issue. Also, the PS3 hasn't been out a year yet so will you people give the games thing a rest? The whole time the 360 has been out its only had 3 AAA titles w/ a year head start and the Wii's #1 title is actually packed in w/ the console itself. The PS3 will have games this holiday season and especially in 2008. Sony has a lot of loyalty in the 3 major gaming countries: UK, US, Japan. Sorry, to say but the 360 WONT win anything if the ONLY consumer base they have is the US. M$ has hurt themselves. Especially w/ RRoD. They are not making $$$ now and they wont make any $$$ even when HALO 3 releases due to their "billion dollar investment". I'm a gamer and I want quality hardware and I, honestly, rather have a console that stays on constantly "w/ no games" than to have a console that most likely defect in 6 to 8 months and has a "large library". Some people say having a PS3 right now is a loss, but its whatever cause, I can afford it!
The fact of the matter is this: 360 has no more potential cause the power is being/been seen. On the other hand, if the PS3 is giving developers some much trouble now, do you really believe that the PS3 wont look OR be better than it is NOW when developers are comfortable w/ the hardware? Basically, every game was developed first on 360 and ported to PS3 and people wonder why the PS3 version looks crappy. The first game (BurnOut Paradise) already shows the difference w/ having development reversed w/ PS3 development first. Its inevitable that the PS3 will start showing that it is more surperior than the 360.
Bottom line, if the 360 doenst make M$ any $$$ in the next year, stock holders will force M$ to terminate the Xbox division. I'm not a fanboy, I'm just being real! We are all gamers, so lets just game and let the companies deal w/ the politics but if really you think that the 360 has already won, you, my friend, are in for a rude awakening. Peace!
PS Ninja Gaiden 2 looks great!
Ska Oreo @ Sep 19th 2007 11:14PM
@Myke
Are you serious? My favorite part is when you claim that there's loyalty for the sony brand in parts of the UK yet the 360 is selling more in europe, especially in the UK. Also I find it humorous that you list US as a place of loyalty for sony, yet the brand is getting it's ass beat by both Microsoft and Nintendo.
"Bottom line, if the 360 doenst make M$ any $$$ in the next year, stock holders will force M$ to terminate the Xbox division."
This for some reason also makes me laugh. Are you really trying to tell me that the 360 is in danger of being terminated by microsoft in a year? I mean seriously I thought it was common knowledge that Microsoft has enough money to keep the 360 afloat for a couple of years. I mean can't we say the same for the ps3 because sony is defiantly not making a profit on that thing for awhile, especially with all the price cuts.
And because you're such the comedian, I was absolutely loling all over the fucking place when you mentioned that console wars aren't won in teh present but the future, and yet you act like everyone else an d base all your claims on things that happened in the present. Next time, follow your own advice.
Silent Xenocide @ Sep 20th 2007 12:54AM
@Myke
If people of all these countries were so loyal then why is the ps3 outsold by the 360 2:1 in Europe, more so in NA, and both it and the 360 are failing in Japan. I really don't see how you can be defending the ps3 the way you are.
Sloar @ Sep 20th 2007 10:16AM
My favorite part of Myke's comment was where he says that the Wii's #1 game is actually packaged with the console. It's probably #1 BECAUSE it's packaged with the console. Seriously, that part made me laugh.
Scott Montgomery @ Sep 19th 2007 9:48PM
I think the Wii will continue to grow. Metroid proved hardcore kids should own a wii and casual gamers only have eyes for wii. This means it will have a lot of hardcore gamers and all casual gamers. It will expand the market.
I think most people who want a 360 already bought it. The console is basically for FPS and Madden. It isn't going to expand the market anymore.
PS3, I think will be dieing out in 4 years.
Jeff @ Sep 19th 2007 10:03PM
Yeah. One "hardcore" game. Metroid is definitely the next game that must be played for all the counterstrike (etc) players out there.
It's too nintendo, just like every game for the system with a few exceptions will be.
Ska Oreo @ Sep 19th 2007 10:30PM
And what's so bad about being too nintendo? Last time I checked, some of the best games ever made were "too nintendo?"
Jamie @ Sep 19th 2007 10:33PM
"Too Nintendo" seems to be working for Nintendo very well.
Rususeruru @ Sep 20th 2007 2:22AM
Actually it seems otherwise. Most Halo fanboys have held out on the 360 til this point. While other skeptical gamers have bought the Wii to sit out the "library war" between the 360. As it stands the 360 is delivering more connect ability than the PS3 so those looking for a multimedia solution of sorts are better with the Xbox. I suppose the multimedia bit is a weak argument to some degree seeing how PS3 is 'open' running Linux however when your console is manufactured by the same company that probably designed your OS then it is a little easier for multimedia streaming. After all Windows still accounts for something like 95% market share in PCs
Ed @ Sep 19th 2007 9:59PM
You forget that he has the power to see the future and the ability to be right all the time.
F1 @ Sep 19th 2007 10:04PM
HAHAHA! AHAHAHAHAHA! TTHE 360 FAILING? WHAHAHAHAAAA!
(Side splits open)
ouch...Somebody call 911...
Psaakyrn @ Sep 19th 2007 10:05PM
If visual fidety matters that much, why is the DS and Wii on top of their respective sales charts? Frankly, because of the lead MS has (and the fact that it's easier to program with), it'll take some time before PS3 games can match those of the 360. And even then, the PS3 have to match the online capabilities (which I don't foresee it happening in this generation), and the software quantity (also, unlikely given the XBox 360's lead and market numbers).
Frankly, I think the early release of the 360 is MS's best move into this market thus far, even if they have to take into account likely known flaws. (Sort of like the Pinto, except less explosive)