DFC predicts bright future for games, dim one for Xbox 360

The main problem that I have with the analyst prediction s of the ps3 eventually beating out the 360 is that it seems to be based on the thinking that because the ps1 and the ps2 did so amazingly well, that the ps3 will also eventually do well. I honestly don't think that's the case. I mean I can go on and on about how the ps1 and ps2 had certain things that allowed them to be successful that the ps3 doesn't have (cheap price, a format people actually cared about) but I'm going to focus on one thing today, and that's the games. Now don't get me wrong, the ps3's game library will get better, but will they be enough for the ps3 to beat 360? No. Once upon a time, sony had an exclusive franchise named GTA which is the only game franchise that has been able to rival (and maybe even exceed) the popularity of the behemoth that is Halo. GTA caused many people (mainly the mainstream crowd which is the only reason why the ps2 did so well) to buy a ps2. Now the ps3 has no such title that since GTA can now be found on the 360. Now sure you can argue that the ps3 will have games like MGS4 and FF13, but the problem is is that none of those games share the same world wide appeal that a GTA or Halo game would. If the ps3 even wants a chance to beat the 360, and maybe the Wii, it will need a game that makes both mainstream and hardcore gamers alike go, holy fucking shit I need this game.

I don't see why people are always bringing up how Ps3 seems to be doing so well in Japan, and xbox 360 is doing horribly. They both are!

for almost 6 months it was

ps3 - 11-13k
360 - 2-5k

More recently it's

ps3 - 20-23k
360 - 2-4k

That amount of sales is almost negligible when looking at how much 360 is dominating ps3 every month in North America. Perhaps when the ps3 continues to drop in price and the sales numbers increase, then people can start using Japan as an example, but let's be honest, 20,000 units difference a month even over a year doesn't match with August NPD 360 sales over ps3.

Aye, me parrot concurs with this scallywag's readin' on th' map!
Th' strength o' th' wee Wii canna be stopped it seems! Not even a school o' giant squipd like ye find in the depth o' th' p'cific seem like it could slow it down now! Arrrr!

And 115 million men be quite th' manpower fer th' Sony fleet! Lots o' spill over just from name brand alone! Yarrr arr ar!
But then, that be be assumin' that th' PS3 that gets some more exclusive ammo fer it's cannon decks! It's two biggun's ain't gonna be 'nough to ship the MS fleet as it be standin' now! Garr yarr arrrRR!

lol samfish i cant understand a thing u just said but lol :P

now i doubt something like this will happen with the 360 going the way of the dodo, not anytime soon but in the next 2-3 yrs im gonna be busy with other things once i graduate so for me now is what matters, not empty promises !! hence i chose the 360.

Dude, do you honestly think that M$ will win w/ their install base ONLY being in the N.A.?

I dont care how many games the 360 has NOW! Even w/ a year head start, they are NOT doing good outside of the U.S.. I can go on and on about this year and next year and the future but let's all just wait til next year and see whats gonna happen.

I am not going to bother defending one system over the other. Why can't we just enjoy the great games that come out for every system and accept the fact that systems come and go.

Great games are great games...if you have the system and the money, and get the opportunity to play a particular game on a system, then enjoy it!!!

I have been playing games for over 18 years and I don't understand peoples takes on bashing another system. I have yet to play God of War for th PS2...not because I have and Xbox 360 and "hate" sony and anything they make....no, its just because i havent gotten the game..

Enjoy the games....thats it!

Everybody keeps saying that not selling overseas will destroy MS. The flaw with that argument is that the overseas market only makes up 25-30 percent of the total market. Either way, there is plenty of room for more than one console.

These analyst predictions seem to be the latest rage in gaming journalism but they are rarely correct or even accurate. Where do I sign up for this job? It seems the only requirement is the ability to speculate wildly and spout nonsense. I can do that but I will need at least $75,000 and a key to the executive bathroom.

If you would read something other than gaming websites you might stumble on the news that Microsoft is actively developing Set-top box software for the X-box 360. When ATT's U-verse rollout speeds up and cable companies start giving people the option to have an X-box as their set-top, guess where Microsofts revenues will go? They aren't going to give these things to the cable companies...
My medium sized city's cable company has 600,000 cable customers.
Discuss amongst yourselves.

The reason 360 doesn't sell is right in front of Microsofts face, its either they are stupid or just plain stubborn.

The wise ways of business are to look at the types of games succeeding in Japan and try to follow this path, I wouldn't expect America to be interested in anime, so why try to make anime big in America? Its a japanese thing. So why does MS persist in drowning the Japanese market in generic fps and shoot em up titles with nothing interesting to a Japanese person brought to the table and expect the Japanese market to gobble it up any time soon?

PS3 is failing for the exact same reason, none of the games Japanese enjoyed, and more of the generic American stuff, only now it is picking up with news of other RPGs and such making their way to the platform, as for MS, I don't see a bright future in any other continent apart from America unless they sharpen up their act and stop pretending like its the Japanese fault, they are racist, they don't like American stuff, yatter yatter yatter, this is how lazy MS is, they haven't even bothered to send a representitve over to Japan to ask them what sort of games they would enjoy playing on a 360 and why the 360 isn't doing so well over there. So much for business intelligence.

Oh, and all those saying 'we don't need Japan' if thats the case, MS should stop selling it there then, just sell it in America, make it an American console only, with only American games and American developers to develop for it and lets see if the 360 is as successful as the other 2 consoles. Wii hasn't been out half as long as 360 yet, and its still surpassing, if things keep up like they are, sales of 360's will hit their peak as only Americans are buying into the Halo rules routine while Wii goes on to dominate everywhere.

With better marketing in Japan and more Japanese targeted games, 360 can succeed, its just at this moment, its going nowhere, its staying right indoors where it was made, if it wants to go out and play with all the other kids, its going to have to sort itself out first.

Meh, all I can say is its a good thing MS didn't choose some of you to be their brains on the ball, otherwise they would have flopped when the first Xbox came out.

WAH! JAPANESE AREN'T BUYING MY CONSOLE, I HATE THEM, I'M NEVER GOING TO SELL IT THERE AGAIN! WAH!

Even if it comes true I don't regret my 360 purchase, cheaper, better online (by a phukking mile) and better games. If the PS3 is going to be so great in 4 years or so why in the hell would anyone buy it at $600 now? And if nobody buys it now at $600 (which they don't seem to be SNICKER) then how will it build an install base in the future?

Well what Sony needs to do is lower their price tag and start dishing out the games, this Lair business is not good on the reputation. Especially with Wii like a tank destroying all Lamborghini's and Ferrari's in its way, unfortunately, both of which PS3 and 360 happen to be.

The way I see it the 360 has the most potential of all 3 systems. Now before you all jump down my throat listen to this.

The way I see it the 360 has the most potential of all 3 systems. Now before you all jump down my throat listen to this.

Mike, the fact that you spelled Microsoft "M$" completely destroys anything you've said. It makes you look like a fucking donkey.

Check you out, guy. You're a real corporate hating renegade.

And as for you Mr. Maverick, what's Blue Dragon and Eternal Sonata trying to do? Of course they're trying to expand to the Japanese market, asshat. Did you not see any coverage of TGS? Go somewhere and masturbate to Naruto, guy.

And yeah, Anime is for little pimple faced bitches. Why the hell WOULD they try and bring that crap over here. They can make it, just keep that crap over seas.

It's all relative. The PS3 is selling well in the UK compared to other countries, which still isn't much. Just last month the 360 saw a 260% sells increase in the UK, moving the 360 to PS3 ratio from 2-1 to 3-1. The 360 has achieved great results and is selling well in all territories with exception of Japan, a relatively small userbase within today's context.

Considering the 360 is the only place you can play Bioshock, Halo 3, GTA IV, Mass Effect, Virtua Fighter 5, and all the major sport titles, it's easy to see why it's so popular.

Whether or not you believe it, the idea that Wii will fizzle out anytime soon is kinda ridiculous, I know a number of people readying themselves to buy a Wii, not PS3, not 360, but Wii, and thats just whom I know, the fact that the Wii generally appeals to the broader market while the PS3 and 360 don't is a positive thing for Wii and as long as Nintendo keeps dishing out the original games, it won't fail at all, it will storm straight pass 360 like it already is within less then a year and go on to be one of the best selling consoles of all time.

360 can't even appeal to the smaller market of Japanese consumers let alone the larger markets of female, none and casual gamers. Right now, there is little going for 360 and PS3 to tempt any none gamer to wanting to try it out.

My mum hates consoles, she sees 360, she thinks nothing of it, she sees PS3, she knows my brother has it, but yet she thinks nothing of it, she sees Wii, shes sees the fun, she hears the fun others have had, she has tried it herself now, and she wants it, never in my life have I ever see my mum or gf enthusiastic about any games console.

So say what you will Misterhearn, you are entitled to you opinion, but it doesn't change the fact that markets need to be more generalized in order to succeed, thus the reason PS3 fails over PS2.

Ya know I think its that Japanese gamers won't buy american. They don't like all the same games (I am sure there are some but the majority gives a rats ass about shooters). You know what though, it doesn't matter as long as they keep releasing more and more content and keep live going they will be fin. Too bad if other countries miss out on live anyways. I am just glad we have it hear.

I think we are all being played for fools in this console race. Not by the 3 major companies: Sony, Nintendo, or Micro$oft, no. I think it is the developers that will make or change the market.

Before calling me an idiot, just hear me out. Look at the way things are going right now:

1) Assassin's Creed is announced as a PS3 exclusive, PS3 interest goes up prior to release, starts to offset the High price tag just a little. Then its is announced as going to the 360 as well, interest in the 360 goes up as well.
2) Unreal Tournament 3 is announced for PC, 360, and PS3, then all of a sudden gets a "timed exclusive" for the PS3, once again, PS3 interest goes up prior to the holidays.
3) Eternal Sonata, an apparent 360 exclusive is set to be released on the 360, and just a week before it comes out it is announced, or at least confirmed to be on the PS3 as well. So, 360 owners are thinking "we are getting a decent RPG now, good thing I have a 360", now PS3 owners are rejoicing that they can play it too sometime in the future.
4) Tecmo makes Ninja Gaiden Sigma for the PS3, making Sony fans think that they can buy the PS3 and enjoy some good Ninja Giaden adventures, and I stress the plural. Then recently Ninja Gaiden 2 is announced, and M$ is the publisher, making it an xbox 360 exclusive.

Can't you all see it, we the consumer are being manipulated by the developers. It is only a matter of time before Konami thinks the PS3 has enough of a user base to justify MGS4 on it, then announce it for the 360 after the PS3 release, therefore guaranteeing sales for Sony, then making more money by putting it on the 360. Developers are playing the market, they are making us believe in these exclusives, and our need to buy each system, that way they can make more money, and more sales for each companies console.

If there are some people in the industry we can trust it would be Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo themselves. They can at least guarantee us that games like Halo 3, Jak and Daxter, and Mario will be on their respective consoles.

The writing is on the wall, spread the truth.

So do analysts actually get paid? If so, I wish I could write drivel like this and be paid for it.

I will be the frist to say that Japan will not matter to the 360 if MS can substain a 2 to 1 ratio in the US and Europe over the PS3. The majority of games developed by Japanese that sell well in the states do not sell well in Japan. This means that MS do not need to sell well in Japan in order to get the same games that sell well in the States and UK.

Europe and the US are the two top countries for games and then Japan is a distant third now.

Sony is dismissing this Christmas but I believe if they get slaugthered by the 360 and Wii, it will be very hard times for the PS3 even with MGS4 and FF. Both Namco and Square have made statements that suggest that if the sales of the PS3 does not improve, they probably will see those very popular franchise move to the 360. Usually Japanese companies are very loyal but business is business and you can believe that FF and MGS4 cost a lot of money to make.

Someone said that the console war is not finished in the present but I say it's how you perform in the present that define how you finish in the end. Just like a sprinter, everything can be determined most time by how quick you are at the start. The energy it takes to overtake someone if you start very poor can be tremendous and Sony pockest at the moment is not that deep.

WHo are these analysts?? How many times do they need to be wrong before they get fired??

Note: All of my money is with proven analysts....and divided evenly between 2 companies named SMITH BARNEY & LEGG MASON......and I doubt they listen to these guys or Michael Pachter (or whatever his name is).

My friend showed me all the latest offering from Sony for the PS3, and right now I can't stop from laughing. I have yet to seen anything or anything promising to show that PS3 has any advantage over the the 360. I'm taking that this analyst isn'y legit after all his speculations and that he's a first class phony.

Nobody trusts the 360 right now. When the new chips come out, interest will return.

I'm also baffled as to why people think the PS3 will explode in popularity and the 360 will die alone in the corner. At least MS has the balls to admit mistakes and change direction, while Sony has their plans forged in stone. Adapt or die.

Ladies, we should all realize that analysts are fanboys too. Most of them had a PS2 when young and now they are upset that PS2's baby is not doing well. Analysts are elitists and for them heritage is very important, plus they are usually sons of analysts and such rich folk, so by projection, PS3 not doing well is like them not living up to their fathers.

I know this is a bit Freudian, but all I'm saying is that analysts are teh bias and have an ego investment in the PS brand.

Xbox, on the other hand, basically has the brand image of a troll for the big bad MS for non-gamers and even some gamers.

When MDF grows up and some of them become analysts (as many are calling out for the job of the 'stiq), Xbox will benefit from teh bias. Xbox 3 will be a Wall Street darling.

somebody needs to take the analysis out of the stores and into the bedroom

..or living room, or wherever you play games.
The wii may be doing good in-store, but in my house its failing terribly, and even though the european library lag is catching up to america now that we finally have all of the launch games (go us)the desire to purchase them is pretty low, knowing that the past few games have been short time noveltys with next to no goddamn replayability.

So yeah, whatever. so long as the 360 still has games being made for it i dont care if the other two systems sell more -then gather dust.

The analysis is pretty sound I think. However, I have a problem with the assessment that Sony could earn larger software revenue than Nintendo. I don't think that's possible. For one there's the difference in first and second party software where Nintendo has a lot of solid properties and the development costs for Wii are so much lower than PS3. This results in 2 things:

- better margins
- more games (the ability to gamble and possibly make a profit on a new IP that is unproven)

For third party games Nintendo has a decisive advantage in software. Industry history shows that the best thing to get third party developers on board is a large user base early. This the Wii has achieved, while the PS3 not so much. Couple that with the larger margin available to publishers and devs and you can expect to see more games from third parties regardless of Nintendo's past or present practices with developers. Yes there will be many ports and sub-standard/licensed games released. But those have even higher margins that finance the third-party gems.

I'm convinced that the reason the PS2 was such a powerhouse was due largely to creating a huge user-base early by offering DVD functionality at an affordable price. This allowed for a lot of games to be released for that system. Games are what sell, the console is just the platform to play the games.

Wake me up in 2023.

My comment would take up too much space to put here, so I put it on my blog here: http://doejo.blogspot.com/

But basically, I don't understand why everyone feels the need to cater to Japan. They're actually a pretty small part of the overall picture.