Analysts: Halo 3 shipping 4.2 million first week; Xbox may finally show profit

by Alexander Sliwinski { Sep 24th 2007 at 8:15PM }

So there's this Halo 3 launch thing going on and it's apparently big, so big that firm Goldman Sachs projects it might actually bring Microsoft's Xbox division into "slight profitability." Analysts for the firm say that Microsoft will ship 4.2 million copies of Halo by the end of September. Even if all those were the normal $60 version that's still $252 million. Microsoft's fiscal quarter ends at the end of the week and the game is expected to bring in $170 million by then, meaning the Xbox division will have its first quarter of profitability since the launch of the original Xbox. It's back to black baby -- for now.

The September NPD numbers expected in mid October will be incredibly interesting in terms of the Halo effect. Halo 3 is guaranteed to be the top selling game (only an act of whatever deity you believe in could stop that at this point), but we're more interested to see the Xbox 360 sales figures. Goldman Sachs expects the momentum of the Halo launch to last well into next year. Wait, hold up ... are they saying Microsoft could have two profitable quarters in the Xbox's entertainment and devices division? *faint*

[Via GameDaily]

Tags: halo3, launch, masterchief, microsoft, party

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)

Rubang B (NDF - Heart) @ Sep 24th 2007 8:22PM

So when are they gonna change the thing's name to the HaloBox?

FIRST ZING! More to come.

colin @ Sep 24th 2007 8:48PM

yeah ... my sides are hurting after that one. have you thought of doing stand up comedy?

Night Elve @ Sep 24th 2007 8:58PM

You know my console of choice is PlayStation, but I've to be honest and Halo is an amazing game and Xbox is doing extremely well.

On the other hand we have a gaming console called Nintendo Wii that is selling a lot but with crappy games and crappy online service.

And don't start mentioning games like Metroid because we all know that Halo is way better than Metroid.

Rubang B (NDF - Heart) @ Sep 24th 2007 10:03PM

Aw come on! It was a friendly zing! Lighten up, nerds.

@Night Elve, hey play nice. Colin zinged me back, but you had to insult Nintendo and make me cry. I'm sad now.

Purple Haze @ Sep 24th 2007 11:34PM

The only problem is that unlike the original xbox the 360 has tons of good gamesthat aren't Halo.

Also Halo is not way better than Metroid. If your talking about multiplayer yes, single player I would completely disagree.

Purple Haze @ Sep 24th 2007 11:35PM

The only problem is that unlike the original xbox the 360 has tons of good gamesthat aren't Halo.

@Night Elve

Also Halo is not way better than Metroid. If your talking about multiplayer yes, single player I would completely disagree.

Lord Chako @ Sep 25th 2007 12:17AM

The day nintendo changes the name to MarWii-O.

dsub @ Sep 25th 2007 2:23AM

Yea. It's done extremely well for two years WITHOUT Halo 3. So we should call it the Halobox. If I was going to call it anything I'd call it the betterselectionofgreatgamesthantheothertwoconsolesbox.

Perhaps the Wii should be called the mariosportsii. Because over the next 3 years we are about to see a reincarnation of every Mario Sports game known to man, on what is this now? The fourth console in a row? I'm still trying to figure out why people STILL get excited about a fourth iteration of a Mario sports game.

Don't forget though. Nintendo is SOOOO innovative. They figured out a new way to control the same damn games that I played on the gamecube.

Rubang B (NDF - Heart) @ Sep 25th 2007 2:48AM

Say what you want, but IF (huuuuge if) these crack-smoking analysts are correct, and Halo 3 is the first game to sell to 40% of its console's userbase within 7 days, then the thing sure as shucks is the HaloBox360.

The first HaloBox's best-selling games were Halo 2 at 8.28 million and Halo 1 at 6.43 million. In a distant 3rd was Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell at 2.93 million. Only Haloz games could break 3 million, let alone 6.

The HaloBox 360's best-selling games (pre-Halo 3) are Gears of War at 4.56 million, Call of Duty 2 at 2.04 million, and Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter at 2.00 million. So if Halo 3 sells 4.2 million in its first week, it will have to wait 2 weeks to claim its rightful throne at the top of the 360's game sales charts, never to be touched again, and you KNOW this, man!

(Figures from VGChartz.com)
http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=&console=X360&publisher=&sort=Total

I'm not knocking Bungie or Microsoft here, but it seems clear that the casual gamer will gobble up the Haloz almost as much as the Maddenz.

Sorry about the long post. I must've had too much GAME FUEL. It's giving me the reflux, which makes me get antsy the on game blogs. I'm gonna go cool off with some Master Chief Mylanta, then crack open a 12'er of Halo High Life and eat some Flood Funions.

Ska Oreo @ Sep 25th 2007 3:13AM

"because we all know that Halo is way better than Metroid."

ummmm so? Yeah I agree that Halo is a much better game than MP3, but that doesn't mean the game isn't good nor does it mean that it shouldn't be listed as one of the reasons to get a Wii.

oldest gamer @ Sep 25th 2007 8:02AM

Wow a gamer with a brain. Halo 3 sucks ass. 8 hours of game play? Last gen graphics? Pay for online play? Holly last gen. If MS enforced the age limit on this craptacular title sales would be like 500,000. Besides SALES are SALES to consumers not SHIPPED to stores. Big difference in the grown up world. Enjoy the HBox as this is it's purpose. That's the reason Halo2 is still the most played game 3 years later, only title ADHD kids can keep playing? lol

Ska Oreo @ Sep 25th 2007 12:40PM

@oldest gamers

Please tell me that's sarcasm. Please tell me you have an ounce of intelligence in your brain and that your post was just a poor effort of showing wit.

Hobo Joe @ Sep 24th 2007 8:34PM

This is mildly very interesting!

Triforceowner @ Sep 24th 2007 9:01PM

WTF? "Mildly Very?"

Korova @ Sep 25th 2007 7:23AM

New version of "probably definitely"!

The1 @ Sep 24th 2007 8:34PM

Some people amaze me. I cannot wait to play Halo3 at midnite.

Word of the street(IDF-Digital Ruler). @ Sep 24th 2007 8:51PM

Remember Spartans Tonight we Frag In HELL!

ruibing @ Sep 24th 2007 8:34PM

Wow it was a good choice for them to acquire Bungie all those years ago after all. But how much did all those advertisements and campaigning cost for this $260 million?

playwhutyalike @ Sep 24th 2007 8:38PM

Doesn't Microsoft print money? I would like to know how much they dumped myself, but I think they can handle it.

Anyways, never played the Halo myself, but to all you Halo fans out there, get your mo' fuckin' game on tonight!

Jake @ Sep 24th 2007 8:50PM

Probably a lot. But the short films at least have the dual purpose of hopefully impressing potential Hollywood movie adaptation suitors.

The co-marketing stuff was probably relatively cheap, as Pontiac, Mountain Dew, and BK may have used the Chief's likeness for free or near free to push their own products in the process. That is how that typically works.

All of the videos Bungie put together were basically freely distributed around the web. The E3 stuff probably didn't cost too incredibly much. The Superbowl commercial last year probably cost several million to air.

And I have honestly not yet seen a commercial on regular TV. Most of Halo 3's mass marketing was done willingly by news outlets, corporate co-marketers, and the internetz.

I've seen the Prime 3 commercial half a dozen times in the last two weeks and have yet to see a Halo commercial on TV. Once the game is out for a week we will probably really start to see the commercials on TV.

Long story short is that they probably have yet to really start spending the big bucks. You have to keep in mind, though, that MS is looking for much more from Halo 3 than just a bunch of cash from game sales. They expect this thing to push a lot of systems and give them some serious momentum. I know a few people, including a PS3 owner from work, that are being seriously tempted to get a 360 based on Halo 3's perceived greatness.

On the flip side, a lot of 360 owners will be playing Halo 3 for so long that it will probably reduce the number of other games that they buy. I would call that the World of Warcraft effect. Financially, you can actually have too much replay value. I expect Mass Effect and Halo 3 to keep my busy for so long that games I would have normally bought, like PGR4, COD4, Eternal Sonata, and a few others to go unpurchased.

I am mostly curious if 360's are sold out at a lot of places by the end of the week. That would be insane two years into a console's life, I think.

Neebs @ Sep 24th 2007 8:55PM

The commercial wasn't on the Super bowl, just Monday Night Footbal.

Triforceowner @ Sep 24th 2007 9:02PM

We all know (should if you're on a video games blog) that the Xbox only exists to stop the PlayStation becoming more popular than the Windows PC. Microsoft will dump as much money as necessary at Halo 3 if they feel it will hinder Sony.

the_game_master @ Sep 24th 2007 8:39PM

This is going to be my first Halo purchase. I never was a fan of the series before until now.

darkside @ Sep 24th 2007 8:45PM

Aaawwww, you've never played the first 2? You owe it to yourself to play through the first 2. I heard that through the 3rd game, they don't really reference back to the first 2 games, therefore, it may be a little confusing.

Halo has one of the best backstory's I've ever experienced in a game. This series really is a great one.

MobiusOne @ Sep 24th 2007 8:49PM

Fanboyism aside, this is why MS is going to bury Sony this generation. Sony's cash cow and the only profit they've had in years, the PS2, will eventually come to an end.

MS on other hand is finally showing profitability. Their gamble (entering the console business) will eventually pay off in the long run. A successful movie/tv download service, good console sales, an attractive price point (will eventually go down further) and strong software sales are going to keep MS in the game.

The decision to stay out of the HD-DVD/BR race was also a good one since downloadable content is an accepted alternative to physical media. Even Sony can't deny that great downloadble games, e.g. Warhawk and GT5 Prologue, don't need Blu-ray.

Even with compelling PS3 titles next year, the gap between the 360 and PS3 will only get larger (Wii's already a runaway success, the iPod of gaming for non-gamers). When MS enters an area, expect them to try and dominate, and that they will...

BTW, the whole RROD thing hasn't and won't affect sales.

Marasai @ Sep 24th 2007 8:54PM

Of course the RROD affects sales. That's what MS is counting on. Once they get the word out that the new 360 is no longer death prone....instant sales.

darkside @ Sep 24th 2007 8:58PM

Yep, I know plenty of people who are planning on buying 2nd and 3rd xbox's even after sending their first console in for repair. I don't mind waiting on mine as long as MS is paying for it.

The wii is only doing well in Japan. Nintendo just doesn't much more than a handfull of AAA titles for the Wii. I see the wii as much more of a gimmick. I give the wii a couple of more years, just watch. People are going to get tired of tacked on motion controls for games that control much better with an analog stick. Besides the few mario titles and zelda titles for the wii, they have nothing else to offer the United States.

As for Sony, those dudes are complete idiots!!! I only give Sony till the end of next year. Yea, they've got GTA IV coming out in the spring (multiplatform though), and they also have MGS4 and FF13. However, I think that konami and square enix are going to rethink they're strategy about only releasing their games on the delaystation3. With barely 4 million consoles sold in almost a year, they're going to want to release their game on multiple platforms for better sales.

Just watch.....

playwhutyalike @ Sep 24th 2007 9:03PM

The iPod of gaming for non-gamers? So what does that make an iPod? An MP3 player for non-music listeners. Weird. Now, my question is, what makes a "hardcore" gamer? Why would you want to be known as such? Unless your getting paid like Fatal1ty is, then what's the point with the label?

JimyD @ Sep 24th 2007 9:04PM

...with the exception of...Zune.

playwhutyalike @ Sep 24th 2007 9:25PM

@darkside

Gimmick means to trick. Nintendo didn't trick anybody. Everyone knew from the get go what the system could and COULDN'T do. So you give the Wii a couple more years. That's more than enough time for them to come out with a steller system. The Wii is pretty kick ass already, in my opinion. In the mean time devolpers are rushing to the Wii because it sells.

Nothing left to offer? No More Heroes, Zack and Wiki to name a few.

Nintendo went this route and did what 360 and PS3 couldn't do, get a whole shit-load of "non-gamers" to buy thier system and make profit like a mo-fo. I think if Nintendo went the route of everyone else (HDD, 720p/1080p and all that other crap) they would have fell flat on thier face.

Nintendo did something unexpected and thier next system will have people lining up around the block to get thier hands on it.

Games that control better from an analog stick? Please. I rented an Xbox last week with Gears of War and Saints Row. Analog sucks compared to the sweet ass controls of Metroid Prime 3. Maybe I'm not a "gamer". So what?

Put the Prime's controls into Halo 3 and you guys would have to change your shorts from blowin' your shit in them. No more getting fragged because you couldn't get your cursor to the right spot on time. Point and shoot, yo.

Okay, I'm done. Time to go eat a cookie.

Rubang B (NDF - Heart) @ Sep 24th 2007 9:54PM

@darkside, the Wii is only doing well in Japan!?!?!? Hahahahaha. That's funny, the DS has consistently been the #1 console in every territory in the world EXCEPT for the U.S., where it gets outsold by the Wii. So... there goes your argument. The 360 can take America for a couple weeks with Halo 3, but when Mario Galaxy and Smash Bros. drop and Halo 3's not in its first week superbonanza anymore, Wii will be back on top. I guarantee that the 360 doesn't pass Wii's worldwide sales figures during this Christmas battle.

Slaziman @ Sep 24th 2007 11:54PM

The iPod resembles the Wii in that it lacks a lot of features that the competition has at similar price points, and is really terrible value on a technical level.

But thanks to design, good marketing, and the perceived value, as well as the synthetic demand created by the shortages, it's selling through the roof.

Of course, they differ in other areas, but I won't go into that.

warioswoods @ Sep 25th 2007 1:16AM

@Slaziman

Yes, the iPod and the Wii do have a lot in common, and you named a couple of important notes of comparison correctly - they are devices that, given a list of specs, offer less 'features' than their competition, yet still manage to outsell due to design.

However, you seem to intend that comparison in a disparaging manner, which is mistaken. Design is becoming far, far more important than features as far as tech devices go; yet by design I certainly am not simply referring to the visual layout or skin of a product. Design includes more broadly the way in which the features and functions of a device fit together into a simple, intuitive whole. It doesn't matter if you can cram more space, speed, etc into a device if the device remains awkward to use. The interface for the iPod is absolutely perfect and brings its purpose and its features together smoothly.

Game controllers have become awkward over the years, and have damaged the simplicity of simply interacting with a game the way one can with a mouse; the popularity of flash games has proven that anyone can have a fun interactive experience by simply pointing and clicking - the DS and the Wii bring that simplicity of interaction back. Having a simple remote that you can wave and can use in a social setting without explaining a list of buttons or having everyone grip an unwieldy gamepad brings the (especially social) function of gaming into better harmony with its form and design. Hence the warranted success of Wii Sports.

I don't understand how some can be so blind to the importance of simplicity of design, smoothness of interface, the way a device fits into your living room, etc - that's more important today than a list of specs, and the Wii's sales show that. All the tech today is impressive, and I'd rather have great design as well than simply the best list of features on paper.

dsub @ Sep 25th 2007 2:27AM

Since when is the DS a console?

dsub @ Sep 25th 2007 2:35AM

Rubang B-

I know that pre-orders aren't a total predictor for sales, but I'd like to think that they ARE a pretty good indicator of them. Based on the pre-order numbers that I look at, even the total between Mario Galaxy and Smash Bros. doesn't even come CLOSE to what we did for Halo 3.

You Nintendo fanboys constantly forget that most of the people buying the Wii are CASUAL gamers. They aren't the diehard Nintendo fans of old. Why do you think there are so many minigame compilations for the Wii? Most people buy one JUST so they can play Bowling on Wiisports. I'm sorry, but while the Wii may outsell the 360 as a system, none of it's games will EVER come close to doing what Halo 3 will in total sales.

The day I see 500 people lined up outside a store for a Mario game, will be the day that hell freezes over. I'm calling the 360 to outsell the Wii through November, with the Wii taking back over in December. I'm also calling Halo 3 to sit atop the game sales charts at least a month into 2008. What else is going to dethrone it?

Rubang B (NDF - Heart) @ Sep 25th 2007 3:01AM

Damn dsub. Those are some ballsy predictions! That's all I can say. So here are mine:

Halo 3 will be the best selling game of the 360's lifetime. I have absolutely no idea whether a Wii game will ever top it, but... since Nintendo's wrangled in a gazillion casuals, if they drop their next "Wii Sports Killer" in a Christmas or 2, and it snares all the casuals all over again, it's a possibility. All I'm saying is they got a tiny chance.

I mean, Wii Play outsold Gears of War, and still charts regularly, just 'cuz it came with a controller. Nintendo has some crazy tricks up their sleeve.

And there is NO way Halo 3 will still be #1 in January. If they sell 4 million in September, there are only 6 million 360s left without it.

Nintendo hasn't even started advertising for Smash Bros. Brawl, and it launches December 3rd. Somewhere around 14 million casuals are going to need SOMETHING this Christmas. It will be Smash Bros. for most of them. The commercials just need to say "online fighting with every character from every Nintendo game ever plus Solid Snake and Sonic (or whoever it is they haven't announced yet, but most likely Sonic)," and both hardcore and casual gamers will be snared.

This Christmas is gonna be so fucking nasty. I wish GTAIV didn't get delayed so it could stay in the battle to mix shit up. It would've taken October back from Halo 3 and then they'd go neck and neck until Smash Bros. comes out.

Melting_Snowman @ Sep 24th 2007 9:01PM

Ummmm... Wasn't the division profitable during the quarter of Halo 2 launch?

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=6521

I'm preeeetty sure that that must be after the launch of the original Xbox.

Cellien @ Sep 24th 2007 9:08PM

Any know why Burger King doesn't have the Halo merchandise today? I went and they didn't have ANYTHING to do with Halo, not even a poster.

spoo @ Sep 24th 2007 9:21PM

My Mom always told me growing up "Don't count your chickens before they hatch"...

darkside @ Sep 24th 2007 9:43PM

@playwhutyalike

I do agree with you about Nintendo's strategy for getting "non-gamers" into gaming. They totally succeeded in that area. But I know several people that were so totally stoked when they first got their Wii's on launch, played the heck out of it for a couple of months, and now, their Wii's just collect dust while the 360 is getting all of the attention.

And as far as "motion sensing technology" goes, I did hear that Metroid Prime 3 has stellar motion sensing controls.......but that's the only game I've heard of that works well with that technology!!! I've played several Wii games with the motion controls, so I've tried it. It just still feels a little to hokey for me. I don't see developers spending a whole lot of time on adapting it into their games.

And come on, this is the video game market dude!! Everyone, gamers or non-gamers, are going to get tired of having to stand up and swing their arms around, point, aim, shoot........people who tend to play video games at all, are lazy. We want to just sit on the couch and do nothing but let the video game consume us.

And don't get me started about the stupid ass Wii Fit board.........Step up, step down, lean left, lean right......wow, it does everything a curb can do!!! YAY!!!!

Rubang B (NDF - Heart) @ Sep 24th 2007 10:00PM

1) I don't know a single Wii game that requires you to stand up (until Wii Fit comes out). I've even golfed sitting down; I just swung sideways.

2) Not all gamers are lazy. If that were true, how the hell would DDR sell so man well each time? People like dancing around like maniacs. Gamers are no exception. Enjoy your stereotype.

3) Curbs don't count your reps for you, record your workout statistics and body-mass-index, and analyze it all for you.

Jeff @ Sep 24th 2007 10:12PM

Good for them.

They helped break what was essentially a monopoly, and made something huge out of nothing.

Even if it's microsoft, that's huge.

ADR @ Sep 24th 2007 11:58PM

Wow yeah lets have the biggest monopoly in the past 50 years add something else to its portfolio. How about everything that uses a computer chip becomes a Microsoft product. That would be great.

So far the reviews haven't exactly praised the single player in Halo 3 just like Halo 2. But of course they all say the multiplayer more than makes up for it and that is why the game gets a 9.5-10. But a much better single player game will only get a 8.5 because it lacks multiplayer. Maybe they should have just gone the Warhawk route and released Halo 3 like Quake 3. I doubt any Xbox owners would have even cared, yes the diehard Halo fan would lament the exclusion of a single player storyline, but if Micrsoft released a Halo 3 comic that told the story all would be forgiven. After all its Multiplayer that really matters right?

Personally I really don't care about multiplayer games. I played enough of them over the past decade and got sick of playing nothing but prepubescent whiny morons that think getting a headshot in an online game is the end all be all of existence. For the most part online games aren't even fun anymore. Within a few weeks all online games are ruined by exploiters, hackers, and those who play the game 10 hours straight every day who find every way of exploiting any bug that will give them a small edge.

I played Halo on my PC. I thought it was a good game. I played Halo 2 on my PC and thought it was an ok game, didn't live up to the first. I'll play Halo 3 in a few years when it comes out on the PC. One thing I won't do is buy a 360 to play Halo that will probably break on me while I'm halfway through. It's just not that important of a game to me. I know to about 3-4 million people in the world it just might be, however when put in the perspective of the billion people that have the ability to buy a console and play the game they becomes a statistical minority not even worth a post to describe them.

Honestly, does Halo really need the most likely $200 million advertising campaign and exposure. It's all to drive stock higher since the real profit from Halo will most likely be much smaller than a breakout game like Gears of War.

Will Halo 3 move systems, probably not like analysts expect. Why? well because most people who will buy Halo 3 already have a 360 and diehard Halo fans are probably the only people willing to go through repeated hardware failures to play a single game. That is the honest truth.

The real question is whether Halo can sell to over 50% of the systems installed base or will Halo increase system sales by 40% to add 4 million new XBOX owners to the total to cover the 6 million copies sold projections with a reasonable sales to installed base ratio. Microsoft has no chance at expanding the 360's base if Halo 3 sells to over 50% of the installed base. That will mean that the 360 is just as cemented as a hardcore gaming platform as the original XBOX.

darkside @ Sep 24th 2007 10:17PM

@Rubang B (NDF - Heart)

I don't mean to say that gamers are fat and overweight or anything, I just mean to say that when most people I know are playing a video game, they sit on a couch and zone out (or into the game). I aint hatin on fat people or nothin :)

darkside @ Sep 24th 2007 10:24PM

@Rubang B (NDF - Heart)

Again, yes the Wii is doing well everywhere, but I don't see it lasting for much longer. The newness of the motion controlls are going to wear off soon, and people are going to get bored with it.

I guess all of us fanboys will defend our consoles until the very end, but hey, who want's to be on the losing team right??

Just enjoy what ya got.

megaStryke @ Sep 24th 2007 10:54PM

Enjoy the losing team, darkside!

Rubang B (NDF - Heart) @ Sep 24th 2007 11:31PM

Well as of right now my team's Nintendo/Blizzard/Valve, so I think I'll be set for the rest of my life.

skyrous @ Sep 25th 2007 12:02AM

The Wii will only fade if they get no 3rd party support and by the way motion controls are not "tacked on" if the system is designed around from the ground up.

Halo 3 will sell 360's and likely put the 360 back into the lead over the Wii. However November will be the month of Mario and then December we have smash brothers both these games are guaranteed system sellers. Of course you still can't find the systems anywhere because the Wii has made it to 10 million faster than any other system. It has shattered nintendo's most optimistic "dream scenario", at what point would you consider it to not be a gimmick? 20 million? They'd have hit that already if could make them that fast. 40 million?

Finally what twisted logic makes you think that in 2010 the executives at EA or ubisoft will say "The Nintendo Wii has sold 35 million systems but lets not any games for it" Does that make any sense? The top selling system gets the best 3rd party support. Sell lots of systems and good games will appear. it has happened every single time it's ever been tried.

Slaziman @ Sep 25th 2007 12:07AM

What does it matter if the Wii is selling well, if it doesn't have the games you like? And that's an universal "you"

Jake @ Sep 25th 2007 12:21AM

The Wii isn't going to just fade away. It isn't even a year old and hasn't had a price cut or all that many good games, casual or hardcore. It will get both in the coming years. Nintendo could drop the thing to $150 if they had to. There is just no way that Nintendo can't just keep selling the thing.

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