Analyst: PS3 will catch up to Wii by 2011

by Ludwig Kietzmann { Dec 10th 2007 at 9:50PM }

You'll typically find that any words following a colon and the word "analyst" are interesting enough to merit some consideration, yet vague enough to pass as either calculated reasoning or transparent thumb sucking. Speaking to The Economist regarding recent Activision Blizzard mega merger, Screen Digest analyst Piers Harding-Rolls notes that consolidation makes sense in an industry where all of the competing consoles matter. Some currently matter more than most, but he suggests that in the future, it might not be the ones you expect.

Harding-Rolls reckons that by 2011, the PlayStation 3 will not only have surpassed the Xbox 360, but will have caught up with the wildly popular Wii's worldwide install base. Though the PlayStation 3 has fared better in Japan following a price drop, the results of the American cut have yet to be revealed. A notable increase in sales is likely, but will it result in a continuing trend that eventually puts it on par with the Wii? It certainly doesn't seem realistic today, but who (aside from the analysts) knows what things await in the year 2011? Perhaps our analytical friend is merely holding out for the inevitable reality tunneling device which would enable travel to a realm where all of this is true.

If you want proper closure though, be sure to bookmark this page and return to it after about four years. We'll be waiting.

[Thanks, Andrew]

Tags: Analyst, Install-Base, Screen-Digest

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 4)

jsn @ Dec 10th 2007 9:54PM

hahaha..hahahahhHAHAHAH....HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

william_varrenti @ Dec 10th 2007 11:22PM

AHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHH LOL

Slaziman (B-B-BRUSHED WITH FAAAAME) @ Dec 11th 2007 10:01AM

LMFAO

Moorio @ Dec 10th 2007 9:56PM

I better do some caculations

*calculates*

Mhmm...

Yep. It's just as I thought...

This man is an idiot.

SoulBlade @ Dec 10th 2007 10:02PM

my thoughts exactly

copa @ Dec 10th 2007 11:06PM

I love how the dude has XBox 360 doing practically negative annual sales to make his chart work right.

StrangeBum @ Dec 10th 2007 11:06PM

Your calculations, they were so simple, it's almost as if PS3 fanboys everywhere didn't get around to finishing Pre-algebra.

Wow, I'm in a pessimistic mood tonight, go ahead and vote me down. I really don't have anything against the PS3 though guys.

DemonGSides @ Dec 10th 2007 11:22PM

I'd rather vote you up.

Brello @ Dec 11th 2007 12:35AM

Alright, that one made me chuckle.

Fenix @ Dec 10th 2007 9:58PM

wow look at that PS3 growth curve! ITS OUTTA CONTROL!!!

seriously? this analyst is a douche.

Ants @ Dec 10th 2007 11:13PM

lmao!
Correction: by 2011 the ps3's install base will be equal to the "wii's 2007 install base!"

ThornedVenom @ Dec 11th 2007 12:29AM

PS3 to Wii: "All your base will belong to us."

Clack @ Dec 11th 2007 12:32AM

I'm to lazy to actually follow the link, but if that is a chart used within said link then it is utter fail. PS3 has been losing ground to the XB360 in the latter half of the year, and has completely lost sight of the Wii.

According to that chart the PS3 has been the fastest selling console in the last half of this year. Bah.

ill trooper @ Dec 11th 2007 2:54AM

Yeah, sounds funny, but crazier things have happened... 18 months ago, few thought the little Wii would make it as far as it has.

See you guys right here in two years. Who knows? Might be the way it is then. Or isn't. Either way, I'm open-minded.

The only console I see with problems ahead is the Wii. All of those 'casual gamers' that bought one might just put it in the closet when they get tired of Wii sports. Nintendo needs an upgrade to their hardware, and I bet they'll announce just that in early 2009: "The WiiToo: A Wii and a PS3 taped together."

SlyTheBoss @ Dec 10th 2007 9:59PM

May be someone should clue in the 'analyst' that the monthly PS3 sales in 2007 wasn't that high. In fact, it was less than the 360 so how could it reach the 360 sales by year end?!?

gonk @ Dec 10th 2007 10:11PM

the magic of funny numbers? lol i dunno

StrangeBum @ Dec 10th 2007 11:09PM

If you were an analyst you would know that you can say anything you want and forecast it as the truth.

In other words, analysts are magical fortune-tellers that make their words true by using the dark-forces!

Ants @ Dec 10th 2007 11:15PM

lmao!
Correction: by 2011 the ps3's install base will be equal to the "wii's 2007 install base!"

hmm did i put this comment up somewhere already?

Ants @ Dec 10th 2007 11:15PM

lmao!
Correction: by 2011 the ps3's install base will be equal to the "wii's 2007 install base!"

hmm did i put this comment up somewhere already?

Jason @ Dec 11th 2007 11:37AM

If you look at the * it says: Year-end figures. That would mean they expect the each console to have those install base numbers by the end of the year indicated on the x-axis.

Everything in the white to the left of the blue shading (indicating a forecast) should be real install base figures, what there source is...well thats a different question.

Korova @ Dec 11th 2007 1:46PM

The PS3 curve is called the analytical erection - its an actual economics term for when an analyst thinks he is so hot that he can raise the sales numbers just by putting his name to a statement.

And with a name like Harding-Rolls ...

Seriously, I do think that PS3 may accelerate later, but that graph is bunk. The Economist needs to stop staring at Harding Rolls and look where they guide the pencil.

vidGuy @ Dec 10th 2007 9:59PM

I think the scenario where the PS3 passes the 360 is plausible considering the dearth of sales the Xbox gets in important markets, especially Japan. Obviously the real killer to the PS3 was price, but now that the price point is at a better spot and will continue to improve, can the games catch up?

I think we'll see something more along the lines of
Wii: 60m
PS3: 48m
360: 40m

But of course, what do I know? I was only predicting this scenario two years ago, when the Wii was still the Revolution. I apparently don't have the knowledge to be clairvoyant.

Obie @ Dec 10th 2007 10:00PM

He missed a one in there , he meant 2111. ;)

Tag @ Dec 10th 2007 10:04PM

Well sure if it catches up with the Wii by 2011, the successor to the Wii will be out around that time. Ditto for the Xbox.

gonk @ Dec 10th 2007 10:12PM

thank goodness for that ol' 10 year plan, huh?

ukickmydog @ Dec 10th 2007 11:35PM

10 year plan won't work. Already there are GPU's that are leaps and bounds beyond what are in the 3 systems now.

If MS (not nintendo, i don't think their primary focus is on graphics, but that's beyond the point), was to release a new system in two years or even next year, the ps3 would not be able to last another 2-3 years, meaning the ps4 would have to be released soon after. Although it does have the cell, it can in no way compensate for the GPU.

However, i doubt the ps3 will even become profitable by then. It would actually be most advantageous for MS and nintendo to start the cycle on their own terms, not this "10 year plan."

but then again, this isn't the PC market, where you have to change out your gear almost on a yearly basis =O

Anticrawl @ Dec 11th 2007 12:07AM

Indeed, I could fucking care less how catches up to who in a last gen console battle. I say last-gen because by that time the next Nintendo & Microsoft console will be out and I'll no longer be playing the Wii or 360.

Heh, the next Nintendo console will probably be about "two PS3's duct-taped together" performance level and the new Microsoft console will be on par with high-end PC rigs of it's time.

ukickmydog @ Dec 11th 2007 12:15AM

"Heh, the next Nintendo console will probably be about "two PS3's duct-taped together" performance level and the new Microsoft console will be on par with high-end PC rigs of it's time."

and the ps4 will have a yello-beam drive and the brand spanking new bacteria processor which both come with the unprecedented price of 699 and $799

lol, i keed, hopefully they'll learn from mistakes this gen and get their A game on next gen.

B1gC72 @ Dec 11th 2007 2:41AM

as a PS fan, im really skeptical about that 10 year plan thing they keep talking about. i think they mean a 10 year plan similar to the ones PS1 and PS2 are on, as in they will release another console about halfway through the life of the PS3. but that is considering they have any money left. i wouldnt think they would be that stupid to let the other console makers get brand new technology out without even trying to follow suit after the fiasco (for Sony anyway) that is this generation.....but then again it is Sony and they have done dumber things.....

Louis @ Dec 10th 2007 10:04PM

This seems a bit optimistic.

Moorio @ Dec 10th 2007 10:04PM

Please ignore my comment above. Sony has paid m- I mean, informed me about my miscalculations and that this graph is indeed true. Like for real and stuff.

Billy @ Dec 10th 2007 10:14PM

That's the fucking funniest thing I've read all year.

Word Up, North Korea! @ Dec 10th 2007 10:53PM

you need to get out more, as that's really not that funny

Backslash @ Dec 11th 2007 1:34AM

Well, Billy said that it was the funniest thing he *read*, so I'm sure he could still go out and . . . say that.

Sorry, just nitpicking.

Trowa @ Dec 10th 2007 10:14PM

Of course the PS3 will be beating out the Wii by 2011, the problem is will it stand a chance against the Wii 2 and Xbox 720.

Geist @ Dec 10th 2007 11:21PM

Exactly my thoughts. By 2011, we're going to have brand new systems to play with, and PS3's popularity is going to mean jack all.

x876543 @ Dec 11th 2007 12:07PM

It will be called the Super Wii, not Wii 2.

vaylen @ Dec 11th 2007 2:27PM

@Trowa "Of course the PS3 will be beating out the Wii by 2011, the problem is will it stand a chance against the Wii 2 and Xbox 720."

Considering the PS2 still outsells the xbox360, I guess I'd say "yes"

Synner @ Dec 11th 2007 5:34PM

@vaylan

The PS2 had about a 1000x better start than the PS3 though, so I'll go will hell no.

thebigfatj @ Dec 10th 2007 10:18PM

If you look at his graph, you'll see that not only does the PS3 begin selling about twice as fast as it is selling now, inexplicably at the beginning of 2008, but the Wii has reached its fastest sales rate (despite Nintendo doubling production) and will only sell slower.

These two things are equally unlikely. I don't see how in the world he "calculated" that the Wii will begin selling slower now that:

(1) Supply is twice as high now as it was last year AND
(2) Demand is higher this year than last.

Yep, the PS3 will immediately begin outselling the Wii just as soon as 2008 rolls around. It will continue this domination forever.

Jeff @ Dec 10th 2007 10:21PM

That graph doesn't show Xbox 720, which is slaying at the time of that graph.

Wow. Fanboy is me. But in all seriousness, with the deftness that Microsoft handles software, I really don't expect to see an Xbox system failing anytime soon. I just wish Games for Windows got the same loving attention-- if only macs actually offered competition to the windows monopoly on gaming.

Kouheikun @ Dec 10th 2007 10:23PM

I love how the Xbox360 and Wii curves are smooth, while the PS3 curve sees a discontinuity right where the forecast begins ...

Skippy @ Dec 11th 2007 12:19PM

That's where the low(er) price 40GB model comes into play.

Evan @ Dec 10th 2007 10:27PM

According to that graph the PS3 is passing the 360 as we speak.

What amazing secret did I miss? Also, I love how every projection that comes out has the 360 sputter instantly. It probably pains the analysts to have to raise the 360 sales little by little because they have seen no sign of slowing down.

bakabakabaka @ Dec 10th 2007 10:48PM

The graph is actually showing year end figures. So where it says 2007, it is showing year end for 2007. So he is estimating that by year end of 2008, the PS3 will catch up to the Xbox360. Either way, this is complete crap. Nintendo will only continue on its current growth if they have the software to support it. And the PS3 will not grow unless it gets some software to support it and continues to improve its online capabilities. A price drop and adding achievements wouldn't hurt either. The 360 curve seems to be the most realistic unless they go after a much broader demographic. They are making strides with the addition of some good rpgs but they seem to cater too much to the hardcore gamer.