Analyst: American PS3 sales to match Xbox 360 in 2008

by Alexander Sliwinski { Feb 5th 2008 at 5:25PM }

Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey envisions a good year for all the consoles, but expects the PS3 to really step up. His estimates are roughly on par with EA's projections for 2008 in North America, with the Xbox 360 and PS3 in a dead heat (of course, the Wii will beat both by a projected three million units). Hickey believes the PS3 will rally in '08 due to a lower price point, better content and Blu-ray's "edge" in the HD movie format war. If Blu-ray ends up being a major factor in consumers' choice to purchase the system, we'll have to watch the tie ratios in order to see whether gamers are actually buying PS3 games.

Hickey notes the "slower relative adoption rate" of the PS3 was due to the high price, lack of "distinguishing" content, strong competition from the Wii and "value confusion" over the Blu-ray player -- basically, the opposite of everything he thinks will make the PS3 a contender in '08. As for Hickey's crystal ball predictions, he says the PS2 will finally hit $99 in '08 and that the Wii will follow PS2 growth, selling eight million units in North America during '08 ... if supplies keep up.

Tags: ea, hickey, janco, mike-hickey, ps3

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)

Esat @ Feb 5th 2008 6:08PM

Both you spamming and your grammar apall me.

Master Bruce @ Feb 5th 2008 5:31PM

Cream always rises to the top in the end.

Marty @ Feb 5th 2008 5:42PM

If it matches exactly in sales, then it will never catch up.

Mr.ESC @ Feb 5th 2008 5:44PM

Except in Starbucks white chocolate coffees, the cream mixes with the coffee and the milk, at the end it tastes exactly like a Vanilla Late.

LaughingTarget @ Feb 5th 2008 5:44PM

I like non-fat milk, thank you very much.

Mr.ESC @ Feb 5th 2008 5:49PM

Non-fat milk is pretty much white water,I like Half and half but mostly whole milk.

mc @ Feb 5th 2008 6:49PM

Sh!t floats!

Geist @ Feb 5th 2008 6:42PM

At some point we lost the analogy here.

Mr.ESC @ Feb 5th 2008 7:09PM

Wood floats in Water!!!

But what also floats in water?

LaughingTarget @ Feb 5th 2008 7:18PM

Churches? Really small rocks?

Zegim @ Feb 6th 2008 8:46PM

Babies.

RoboChamp @ Feb 5th 2008 5:31PM

Doesn't sound too crazy.

dork @ Feb 5th 2008 5:32PM

because everyone already has a 360....

Secura @ Feb 5th 2008 7:22PM

There must not be as many gamers as I thought....

glitched @ Feb 5th 2008 5:32PM

Out of the woods, and onto the beach.

Shimrra @ Feb 5th 2008 5:32PM

Its bound to happen so its no surprise. I do hope tho that Sony starts releasing some exclusive games soon tho. At the same time the price drop on the PS3 does help out alot. Maybe sometime this year I might pick one up.

XanthouS @ Feb 5th 2008 5:33PM

Aah, Tie Ratios.

Xbots already have an excuse lined up for when the PS3 eclipses the 360 in install base.

Good to hear they're planning for their futures.

Mr.ESC @ Feb 5th 2008 5:38PM

Why Sony fanboys are always so dramatic?

FidliousWong @ Feb 5th 2008 5:40PM

Ironically enough, Microsofts sales numbers for 2007 indicate that PS3 may have already outsold 360 for the year of 2007.

I just thought I would throw that flamebait up since Joystiq will not post the news story I sent them...

Marty @ Feb 5th 2008 5:43PM

If the sales match each other in 08, then the PS3 will not eclipse anything. It just means that each install base will rise.

FidliousWong @ Feb 5th 2008 5:57PM

But marty, PS3 has already outpaced in 2007, what makes you think this will suddenly stop in 2008. About the only system who's fate is predictable at this point in Wii.

Marty @ Feb 5th 2008 6:08PM

Fidlious, usually if you're the only one who knows a statistic like that, and it hasn't been reported by game industry websites or flaunted by Sony, chances are you're wrong.

The analyst said he thinks the PS3 will rally to match 360 - that means that it's sales numbers are currently lagging behind the 360. And despite how wrong they've been at times, I think industry analysts probably have more reliable data than you do.

upz @ Feb 5th 2008 6:19PM

"If the sales match each other in 08, then the PS3 will not eclipse anything. It just means that each install base will rise."

You made the exact same comment about ten posts above. Are you really THAT worried, Marty?

Marty @ Feb 5th 2008 6:23PM

Haha, not worried at all. The day I lose any sleep over sales numbers for these machines is the day I stop playing video games altogether.

I just can't believe how so many people can't interpret simple math. Should I be reprimanded for trying to quell ignorance now?

B1gC72 - PSN: KillaKornbread @ Feb 5th 2008 6:25PM

well it's obviously lagging behind. the 360 has a whole years worth of pretty strong sales under it's belt already. so in order for the PS3 to take a marketshare lead over the 360 it has to outsell it for the year PLUS make up a decent chunk of the 360's head start install base.

PS3 still has a ways to go before it beats the 360 but i dont think it's impossible, just dammed hard to do. either way, you Xbots should be happy the PS3 is doing better so it will keep Microsoft honest. why do you think the PS3 is suddenly doing better? cause the competition was spanking it. bigger install bases all around can only help the gamer. wise up guys.

Catprog @ Feb 5th 2008 6:37PM

@ FidliousWong

Sony SHIPPED more then Microsoft. (due to Microsoft stuffing the channel at the end of 2006)

Microsoft SOLD more then Sony
http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=16311

DangerMouse @ Feb 5th 2008 7:14PM

1 chick, 3 tits?

LaughingTarget @ Feb 5th 2008 7:19PM

Total Recall is an awesome movie because of that.

DangerMouse @ Feb 5th 2008 7:31PM

Yes it was. Unfortunately, this was meant below, but something on this site screwed up. Oh well.

FidliousWong @ Feb 5th 2008 8:59PM

okay, why not?!? I will not type this is both sections of the thread...

I... guess this is one of those instances where we once again point to the fact that VGchartz is not law. Likewise, somehow, VG chartz has a way of knowing about console sales even Microsoft doesn't know about... Or maybe Microsoft is taking into account vendor returns and VG chartz is not? Okay... here we go...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfIDBqOxYRs

Now, look at 6:34. Robbie Bach specifically states that they have sold, through December 31st, 10.4 million Xbox 360s worldwide. This was CES 2007. These are numbers from Microsoft, the people who would know and more importantly, why would they lie about these stats?

http://www.majornelson.com/archive/2008/01/03/some-xbox-360-numbers.aspx

Taken from the post at hand...

"The PR team has just released some interesting numbers on where we are with the Xbox 360 that I thought you would enjoy discussing:

We have sold more than 17.7 million Xbox 360 consoles worldwide
More than 8.1 million copies of "Halo 3" have been sold since its launch (September 25, 2007)
Mass Effect" reached 1.6 million units sold, in just six weeks (on sale November 20, 2007)"

So that's 17.7 million sold... according to Microsoft. That means, according to Microsoft, they have sold 7.3 million units in 2007. Now keep in mind, according to VGchartz, the amount the sold for the year is a roughly a million over what MS has claimed, yet the total system sales are about a million below what MS has claimed. That means there is some problems with the numbers.... don't you think? Now who do we trust, the people who write the shipping reports and count the sales or the people who READ the shipping reports and sales quotes? Because, clearly, one is wrong and guess who relies on who for their data?

Now onto Sony...

http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps3_sale_e.html

According to this, Sony has sold (sold to retailers is still sold) 8.191 million consoles for 2007 (Q4 of FY2006 is, in fact, first quarter of 2007). Now, you MAY notice Q1 had excessively low shipped quantities. this is because most stores were not ordering restocks because they already had units. Notice Q2 however and how the price drop increased the shipments and suddenly Q4 had a huge jump. Not to bolster store quantities because, simply put, if no one was buying PS3, the stores wouldn't either.

Now, as for true hardcore sales, nobody knows. There is, simply put, no possible way OF knowing. But these numbers place PS3 beyond Xbox 360, but if they are wrong, this is certainly far too close to be comfortable for Microsoft who, according to their own data, saw a decrease in 2007 sales from 2006. MS's own numbers place nearly nearly 9 million in sales during 2006.

Take this data for however you see fit. However, take this data as evidence that, despite the supposed reliability of VGchartz, their numbers are simply not matching up with what all the companies are saying.

Pedobear @ Feb 6th 2008 1:02AM

So Fidlious you're saying Sony's sold to retailers is higher than Microsoft's sold to consumers for 2007? I don't get it. Wouldn't it make more sense to compare them both on the same thing?

Catprog @ Feb 6th 2008 2:00AM

@FidliousWong

You are talking shipped to retailers while vgchartz counts sales to consumers.

Also there were 2 million 360's counted as 'shipped to retailers' in 2006 but 'sold to consumers' in 2007.

This was due to Microsoft stuffing the channels to hit their 10mil target

Mr.ESC @ Feb 5th 2008 5:33PM

3 words,1 number:Metal Gear Solid 4

dork @ Feb 5th 2008 5:40PM

50gigs, 49 gigs of cutscenes, 1 gig of gameplay

LaughingTarget @ Feb 5th 2008 5:45PM

40 minutes to install.

Mr.ESC @ Feb 5th 2008 5:45PM

Gameplay is last gen and oh,so overrated.

Mr.ESC @ Feb 5th 2008 5:46PM

Well actually I like Kojima style and even if the game ends like the modern version of Dragon's lair I would be fascinated.

Einlander @ Feb 5th 2008 7:01PM

3 words 1 number? time to monetize on some porn

Esat @ Feb 5th 2008 5:34PM

Method:

Post almost identical flame war post the day before, except from a different source (EA)

The next day post the exact same info, but from a different source; equall level of flaming expected.

Same 200 comments from fan boys expected as before.

Rinse and repeat.

Microswirl @ Feb 5th 2008 7:59PM

Stop being such a damn reasonable-discourse-fanboy! Flame on!!!!1!

Zsavior @ Feb 5th 2008 5:40PM

Wow has the PS3 sales really jumped started that high, I mean I haven't been paying attention as closely as I should have has it really been kicked up that much? I thought as the high end console race was going Xbox360 had America as a lock, what happened?

samfish @ Feb 5th 2008 5:40PM

I think it'll eventually happen, but not this year. Not in North America, at least.
Sony's '08 lineup isn't as strong as a lot of folks 'round these parts seem to think. Not from a big name standpoint, at any rate. If FFXIII had even a remote chance in Hell of coming out, it might be a different story.

Meanwhile, we really have no idea WHAT MS (and Nintendo, to a lesser extent) has planned for '08 still.

Leobebes @ Feb 5th 2008 6:37PM

What's this whole if Final Fantasy came out in America then it would be different? Let me feel you in on something over here American gamers no longer give two flips about turn based JRPG's. Why do you think Sony has Killzone 2, Haze, and RFOM 2 lined up for this year? To capture the American market. I like many like minded American gamers would never be caught dead playing games where the protagonist is a pretty boy, with a top Salon do, wearing a dress, and beating up guys with bazookas using a shiny sword that shoots sparks. Turn based is dead...In America at least.

Noshino @ Feb 5th 2008 7:02PM

wow Leobebes...

"I like many like minded American gamers would never be caught dead playing games where the protagonist is a pretty boy, with a top Salon do, wearing a dress, and beating up guys with bazookas using a shiny sword that shoots sparks. Turn based is dead...In America at least."

you have no idea, you might be one of the few, but seriously, have you seen the amount of mindless fanboys that keep screaming for a remake of FF7?

Do you know how anime expos are there in the US?

You have no idea, Dragon Quest might be SE's biggest franchise in Japan, but outside of it, Final Fantasy is one mighty franchise...

If you don't like it is fine, but don't go around bashing a franchise with a legacy and power as the FF one...

PointyThings @ Feb 5th 2008 7:08PM

Leobebes, XIII is an action game, DMC style, with RPG elements. That's what they've said since day one, and that's what the trailers point to. If half that shit happens in game, it's 3 times more action packed than any of those games you mentioned.
Also, you play as a girl, and FF hasn't been turn based since X.

Mr Khan @ Feb 5th 2008 7:10PM

honestly, i see Sony's exclusive (especially 1st and 2nd party) 08 lineup to be stronger than the 360's exclusive 08 lineup

However, seeing as the Wii hasn't even caught up to 360 in overall NA sales (although it does outsell it), i see the PS3 having an even harder time of it. (i know its about sales rates, just saying)

LaughingTarget @ Feb 5th 2008 7:24PM

FFXIII - Where the main character actually looks like the gender she really is.

Feigr @ Feb 5th 2008 5:41PM

Even though I don't own a PS3 or 360 I really hope that the PS3 will be the big console of the two in the end.
So far there isn't enough software on the PS3 for me to warrant a purchase and I hope that changes this year.
I want more big japanese RPG releases, apart from FFXII. Maybe DQX will be a PS3 title and then I will definetly buy it since I bought both the PS2 and DS to play Dragon Quest titles.