Man, being a video game analyst must be a sweet job. You can put out all sorts of crazy predictions
and no one will ever call you on it if you end up being wrong, right? Well, yes, right, until today, because today Kotaku has completed a massive project to rank the truthiness
of predictions from some of the most prominent video game industry analysts out there.
The results show that even the best prognosticators out there aren't all that infallible -- Michael Pachter, Jeetil Patel and Mitshuhiro Osawa all top out the scale at 60% correct. That might not sound so good, but it looks absolutely glowing when compared to Billy Pidgeon's dismal 10% truthfulness rating (with 20% still to be determined). Want to avoid his ignominious fate? Just be like Piers Harding-Rolls and predict stuff so far into the future no one can tell how accurate your calls are until you've moved on to used car sales or something.
The full piece
takes an interesting look behind the scenes in analyst-land and provides some good reasons to be cautious of all those stories with headlines that start with "Analyst predicts ..." Do yourself a favor, take a few minutes and give it a read.