How accurate are your favorite video game analysts?

by Kyle Orland { Feb 18th 2008 at 4:43PM }

Man, being a video game analyst must be a sweet job. You can put out all sorts of crazy predictions and no one will ever call you on it if you end up being wrong, right? Well, yes, right, until today, because today Kotaku has completed a massive project to rank the truthiness of predictions from some of the most prominent video game industry analysts out there.

The results show that even the best prognosticators out there aren't all that infallible -- Michael Pachter, Jeetil Patel and Mitshuhiro Osawa all top out the scale at 60% correct. That might not sound so good, but it looks absolutely glowing when compared to Billy Pidgeon's dismal 10% truthfulness rating (with 20% still to be determined). Want to avoid his ignominious fate? Just be like Piers Harding-Rolls and predict stuff so far into the future no one can tell how accurate your calls are until you've moved on to used car sales or something.

The full piece takes an interesting look behind the scenes in analyst-land and provides some good reasons to be cautious of all those stories with headlines that start with "Analyst predicts ..." Do yourself a favor, take a few minutes and give it a read.

Tags: analyst, analysts, analyze, kotaku, pachter, predict, predictions, rankings

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)

Nigeria @ Feb 18th 2008 4:49PM

Well it looks like Billy Pidgeon doesn't know shit.

Co @ Feb 18th 2008 4:50PM

lmao thats the truest shit i ever read

ViagraFiend @ Feb 18th 2008 5:00PM

Just take the opposite of what Billy Pidgeon says and you'll be right most of the time. Awesome.

brandon_r87 @ Feb 18th 2008 6:06PM

Every time I see the name Billy Pidgeon, I think "Billy Pidgeon has come unstuck in time."

Analysts annoy me, I'd rather wait for something to be verified before I read it, and I'm not surprised by how low most of the accuracy is. They're over hyped corporate fortune tellers.

Fernando Rocker (Ludwig Defense Force) @ Feb 18th 2008 4:49PM

That's why Patcher is the man.

Fernando Rocker (Ludwig Defense Force) @ Feb 18th 2008 4:52PM

How about Surfer Girl? She is not an analyst, but how accurate are her rumours?

Organic_Shadow @ Feb 18th 2008 5:06PM

Yet everyone hates on him and calls him out for his technically(just based on the number of his predictions) Sony-favoring "attitude".

But yes, as far as Surgergirl and Skaterboy are concerned, I would like to see a graph just for the rumorists...ts...sss....

Trev @ Feb 18th 2008 5:12PM

Surfer girl is good, but a lot of stuff that comes from her is playing it safe.

Example:
"Twisted Metal has a future on that new console that ends with a 3." It covers ANYTHING related to Twisted Metal and the PS3. Is there a Sony system that hasn't been nostalgia-bombed by a TM game?

She did call Factor 5 working on a Wii game, and Resistance 2 being set in America, but that's balanced by "I'm looking forward to the next Team ICO project" vagueness. I mean, who ISN'T looking forward to the next game from people that made awesome things like Ico and Shadow of the Colossus? [People that don't like awesome games, that's who.]

PS. Polite reply to polite Fernando.

NoHitHair @ Feb 18th 2008 5:19PM

I'm sorry, did no one notice that the best score out of the bunch ranked in at the equivalent of a D-? An accuracy of 60% bears a narrow margin, hardly more useful than simply flipping a coin.

upz @ Feb 18th 2008 6:01PM

You're assuming that every question is yes/no, which is hardly the case.

The Artist formally known as Jesus @ Feb 18th 2008 4:50PM

These guys have names?

Mr.ESC @ Feb 18th 2008 8:20PM

Yeah I know,how weird is that?

Soon they will be treated like persons.Can you imagine that? LOL.

CB @ Feb 18th 2008 4:50PM

I was expecting that graph to be 0-10 out of 100...

JayVe @ Feb 18th 2008 4:51PM

Man!

The best of them are only 'Right' a little more than 50% of the time.

May as well roll a die on predictions.

Crono (NDF - Knight of the Old School) @ Feb 18th 2008 4:53PM

Flip a coin.

Donald @ Feb 19th 2008 8:02AM

If you're right 52% of the time, you're wrong 48% of the time.

Mr Khan @ Feb 18th 2008 4:55PM

Makes sense, a lot of what they call for are stuff that us Armchair analysts could've called.

I'm with Fernando, a more interesting statistic would be the industry rumor reporters

samfish @ Feb 18th 2008 4:56PM

There' a thread floating around on Neogaf, if you can bring yourself to go there, that charts Surfer Girl's accuracy.

caramelzappa @ Feb 18th 2008 4:57PM

This is why I don't pay attention to analysts, and I don't understand the people who do listen. They don't have sources, they're paid to make stuff up. The more obvious the thing they make up is the higher their accuracy, but they really don't know anything.

ViagraFiend @ Feb 18th 2008 4:57PM

I hate all of these guys and by hate I mean I'm jealous that they get paid to do this.

NATO_Duke @ Feb 18th 2008 5:00PM

I predict that people will still read their predictions.

Fernando Rocker (Ludwig Defense Force) @ Feb 18th 2008 5:01PM

I predict that your prediction is correct.

samfish @ Feb 18th 2008 5:05PM

I will predict that you will predict that I will predict you just pulled that prediction out of your ass.

Fernando Rocker (Ludwig Defense Force) @ Feb 18th 2008 5:12PM

Are you upset with me samfish? =(

deaftly @ Feb 18th 2008 5:32PM

awwww, the nintendo fanboys are having a spat. make up you 2.

samfish @ Feb 18th 2008 5:35PM

No, why?

samfish @ Feb 18th 2008 5:37PM

And I want to have wild, hot, bondagey makeup sex with you, Deaftly.

MIZRAHI! MIZRAHI~!!

deaftly @ Feb 18th 2008 5:39PM

Sweet! Fernando you're old news now!

why not the LS2LS7? @ Feb 18th 2008 5:07PM

*past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

JayVe @ Feb 18th 2008 5:15PM

I was in a conversation with someone the other day where they told me they were going to purchase a PS3 because they enjoyed the PS1 and PS2 so much. I responded with, "past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results" and they started to flip out like, "Where the hell did you come up with such bullshit?!"

O_o

Pro-Truth League @ Feb 18th 2008 5:15PM

I hate pachter so much. Everytime I hear him talk, or see his smug face, I want to punch it. It wouldn't be so bad if he'd just say something, no. He has to act super smug, and ultra-correct about himself, when he's wrong, or even -ultra- wrong about 60% of the stuff he says!

benjor0x0r @ Feb 18th 2008 5:19PM

Not sure that I would trust the people making a graph about "industry" analysts who spell the word "industry" wrong...

Donald @ Feb 18th 2008 5:54PM

*Spelling only correct 60% of the time.

AzaMcWazza @ Feb 18th 2008 5:24PM

60% is phenomenal in a business like that.

Look at Sony for instance, what's their success rate on proprietary formats winning a market share? 1%?

JayVe @ Feb 18th 2008 5:35PM

Not only that, but look at their prediction rate for their own consoles.

It will have 2 HDMI ports, will launch in the Spring of 2006, will be orders of magnitude more powerful than the Xbox 360, will sell more than the PS2, will come standard with full backwards compatibility, and will be so lust-worthy that it will cause people to get a second job.

Rockerfest @ Feb 18th 2008 6:02PM

You're right....3.5" floppy, the CD, Blu-Ray....

Don't get me wrong, Sony shells out some serious cash for formats that fail hard, but what they've done right makes them more than enough money to take risks. 1% lololol. I'd say like 20-25% ish.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sony

Look at all the formats they put out, it is kinda nuts. Curious, what the success rate of other companys are.

why not the LS2LS7? @ Feb 18th 2008 6:27PM

Betacam (not Betamax).
U-Matic (3/4") and U-Matic SP
CD
DVD
MiniDisc was a success in Europe and Japan until the iPod killed it, an about 7 year run is quite good.

They have a pretty good record. Name another company that came up with more successful formats. Philips is probably in 2nd place with Compact Cassette and CD under their belt.