Analyst: Iron Man film could suffer from GTA IV release

by Ross Miller { Mar 12th 2008 at 3:00PM }

Jon Favreau's Iron Man adaptation is looking really good, but its ticket sales may suffer from a proverbial digital drive-by. That's according to Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey (via Next-Gen), who warns that the April 29 release of Grand Theft Auto IV could adversely affect the superhero film's May 2 opening the same week. Said Hickey, ""We anticipate the video game release of GTA IV on April 29 could dampen the potential from Iron Man's theatrical release on May 2."

While you might scoff at the notion, remember that Halo 3 was cited as a primary reason for poor box office sales the week after its release last year.

Tags: film, grand-theft-auto-iv, gta4, gtaiv, iron-man, movie

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)

Lonecow @ Mar 12th 2008 3:04PM

Or I could just go buy GTA IV then go watch Iron Man.

Marry me Mario PSN: Killjebus @ Mar 12th 2008 3:21PM

Really, what a concept you have there. Being able to do more than one thing. Amazing.

What a load of Krap this is. I will see this movie in the theatre AND buy and play GTA4.

I might go KayRazy and watch some SportsCenter too.

RoseGold @ Mar 12th 2008 4:44PM

basically i mean where does it say that i cant do two things these are two indirect corelations

E.J. @ Mar 12th 2008 5:02PM

This is a dumb assumption anyway. I have a better one: videogame fans are more likely to see this movie because they are more likely to like movie adaptations of comic books, done well or not (the first FF was the #1 movie its first weekend although critically panned).

Just because people skipped on the Stiller/Farrelly formulaic romantic comedy to purchase and play Halo 3/Orange Box doesn't mean people are going to skip Iron Man for GTAIV.

Mike Hickey, do some research first before you use your MBA to make assumptions about the corrolation between gamers and comic book movies. I don't have an MBA and my assumption sounds better than your garbage.

ill trooper @ Mar 12th 2008 6:09PM

You hit it on the nose - three-four days solid of playing GTA? Sounds like a perfect time to take a shower, and head out for the welcome break 'Ironman' could offer. Plus you could eat a meal outside, away from the 360/PS3.

Marty @ Mar 12th 2008 3:06PM

I'll be playing GTA IV and probably not be seeing Iron Man. Providing the former is good and the latter isn't.

da governator @ Mar 12th 2008 3:15PM

I love how they're pre-empting bad box office results by complaining about GTA4 already. Maybe Iron Man will suffer because it looks really lame. It gives me flashbacks of Fantastic Four and The Punisher.

Marty @ Mar 12th 2008 3:19PM

There was nothing fantastic about that movie, let me tell you.

THE WICKER MAN (BWF) (GT: Dalek Prime) @ Mar 12th 2008 4:32PM

Sounds like excuses are already being made. Here is an idea, dont make a crappy Iron Man movie! Of course I would rather play GTA than waste 10 bucks on a movie I can tell from the previews is going to suck. Iron Man the song on the trailer...really?

Dan Davis @ Mar 12th 2008 3:06PM

Iron what? Sorry, I was too busy shooting cops!

onesidezero2481 @ Mar 12th 2008 3:08PM

i would rather play the game adaptation of Jumper than go watch robert downey jr. "act" for 2 hours. so i think that pretty much sums up which i'll be choosing.

weirdestchild @ Mar 12th 2008 3:08PM

I'm sure both forms of entertainment will not be worth my money, as I will be playing Brawl.

xFenixKnightx @ Mar 12th 2008 3:12PM

Uhhhh, I wasnt going to see Iron Man in the first place, thanks anyways.

Bwahahahahahaaa!!!

They are already blaming something for poor box office sales.

Noshino @ Mar 12th 2008 4:03PM

they need a excuse for the poor the poor results to come, anyway, I ll go watch to see how hollywood destroys the superheroes that I have come to know and love...

Alex R @ Mar 12th 2008 4:20PM

No, they're mainly blaming Rockstar because as everyone knows, the government hates them.

Hell, might as well blame them for Gayness while you're at it.
PS, I have nothing against gays.

Nicholas @ Mar 12th 2008 3:14PM

I will go see Iron Man for sure, I've been waiting for that little piece of entertainment for a long time. I can play GTAIV any other time. One just really doesn't exclude the other really.

"Let's face it, this is not the worst thing you've caught me doing." Brilliant...

Kujel @ Mar 12th 2008 3:14PM

I'd play GTA IV long before watching more Hollywood trash, movies suck compared to games but Hollywood has also gotten very lazy in the last 20 or so years.

Marty @ Mar 12th 2008 3:20PM

Or the actors are too busy doing voice-overs for games like... well, GTA IV.

jdeuel @ Mar 12th 2008 3:30PM

funny you should mention laziness

Would you care to tell me what's changed from GTA3 to GTA San Andreas?

Excluding a makeover and a shitty rpg system: nothing. Now with the gta3 design doc collecting dust, because rockstar knows it by heart, tell me who the lazy one is

ChooChooCharlie @ Mar 12th 2008 3:46PM

"Would you care to tell me what's changed from GTA3 to GTA San Andreas?"

Well to be fair, San Andreas used the GTA3 engine.

However, we are talking about GTA4 here. GTA4 (a game yet to be released) =/= San Andreas (originally a PS2 game from 2004). While the basic formula of gameplay will be similar, they are not the same game.

And as far as laziness among Hollywood and Rockstar: Hollywood releases the same shit and is surprised at poor ticket sales, while Rockstar actually puts work into their titles and usually comes up with a story far superior to most modern movie plotlines - and the consumer has shown support for the better quality product.

The difference is that Hollywood's laziness has resulted in no change at all and them releasing the same tired formula again and again. While Rockstar's "laziness" in not changing the basic formula has resulted in huge sales. If it's not broken, why would they need to fix it?

ck @ Mar 12th 2008 5:12PM

Oh god here we go with blah blah blah Hollywood is so crappy whine whine whine I can make better movies blah blah blah. As far as I'm concerned Hollywood and video games are pretty much pumping out the same stuff - some of it's good (and when it's good, it's really good) and some of it's bad. There's been an awful lot of good movies lately and 2008 looks to be another good year for video games and movies.

As for me, I'm going to enjoy this year, rather than complain about stuff that I'll never buy or watch.

Poisoned Al @ Mar 12th 2008 6:07PM

@ jdeuel. SA was stuck using the same engine as GTA3 thanks to the game being joined to the hip to the PS2. As awesome as in it's day, when SA came out, saying that the PS2 was "a bit old" would have been a massive understatement. It was amazing how they shoehorned so much stuff into Vader's toaster, so you can't knock Rockstar for that.

Quentin @ Mar 12th 2008 3:14PM

Or I could wait for it on DVD/Blu-Ray or hell, use my video game console (Xbox 360) to download and watch it in about 4-5 months.

Don't feel that bad movie studios, it will eventually turn out...then again, the DLC for IV will be out by then...

deaftly @ Mar 12th 2008 3:15PM

no.

deaftly @ Mar 12th 2008 4:17PM

Hey the spammer got deleted and the best part is my post still relates to the topic. Go me.

ThornedVenom (Harley Quinn Defense Force) @ Mar 12th 2008 3:15PM

I hate people who freely advertise their own website without pointing out any relevance (and by relevance, I mean external news sources, Wikipedia and Rick Roll).

deaftly @ Mar 12th 2008 3:15PM

Im on the fence about Ironman, more psyched for the new Hulk and Wolverine movies.

ck @ Mar 12th 2008 5:19PM

See, I'm the complete opposite - I'm trepidacious about Wolverine (I can't imagine Wolverine without the rest of the X crew) and The Hulk (I love Ed Norton, but it's from the director of The Transporter). While with Iron Man - it's a fresh start and Downey Jr. is a great actor (despite what other people claim in the comments) and John Frickin' Favreau is directing! Plus Terrance Howard as War Machine.

Cal @ Mar 12th 2008 3:18PM

It doesn't matter when Iron Man is release, I won't be seeing it...

SpartyOn @ Mar 12th 2008 3:19PM

It was complete BS when some studio execs blamed Halo 3 for poor ticket sales. That weekend's top openers were The Heartbreak Kid and that movie where The Rock was a pro quarterback that had to raise his illegitimate daughter. You could have a week where the only game that came out was Atari's "My Horse & Me," and people would still stay away from those movies.

The fact is, Iron Man looks cool, and I think a lot of gamers will take 2 hours out of GTA4 weekend to see it. After all, Superbad came out the same week as Madden 08, and it had a monster opening at the box office. I explained it all here: http://liquidarchitecture.wordpress.com/2007/10/19/finishing-the-fight-ben-stiller-missed-you/

mergedwarrior @ Mar 12th 2008 11:13PM

Exactly. And our nerdy girlfriends would rather have us go to a geeky movie than watch us play GTA4.

Maverick Saturn @ Mar 12th 2008 3:19PM

OI, Iron man is amazing, I'm definatly going to see....

...Whats that? GTA4 is releasing same time?

...Sorry Iron man, but we have to part ways, lets just be friends.

Dio @ Mar 12th 2008 3:21PM

http://www.internetisseriousbusiness.com

jaredgood1 @ Mar 12th 2008 3:21PM

I'm excited for GTA, but it's number three on my priority list that week, behind Mario Kart and Iron Man.

ThornedVenom (Harley Quinn Defense Force) @ Mar 12th 2008 3:22PM

(Personal opinions to follow):

- GTA IV: I'd like to get a copy, because I hadn't owned any of the previous installments. Problem is that I'm a little too swamped at the moment to be thinking about that.

- Iron Man: Only heard of him through the movie announcement, also heard that it was unfair to draw a comparison between Batman (DC) and Iron Man (Marvel) just because they're rich people with no inherent powers since one's a badass whereas the other one is apparently an ass. I'm not intending to see it anytime soon, unless someone who has seen it highly recommends it to me (but it's been a while since I haven't been to the movies, therefore I missed out on Cloverfield).

So yeah, I don't think that the delay would have much of an effect, because if I really wanted to check out both, I'd do it regardless of release dates.

Crono (NDF - Knight of the Old School) @ Mar 12th 2008 4:44PM

"they're rich people with no inherent powers since one's a badass whereas the other one is apparently an ass."

Which one's which. I know Batman is a badass, but bruce wayne is also an ass sometimes.

ill trooper @ Mar 12th 2008 9:47PM

Well, Cloverfield was weak, so no biggie on that.

Dio @ Mar 12th 2008 3:22PM

Oh noes, I guess the entertainment industry is going to have to plan their movie releases against video games *rolls eyes*

If they're that worried, just offer free movie tickets to those who purchased GTA IV. It's a win-win for everyone.

Blaggers @ Mar 12th 2008 5:00PM

How would that help at all? Studios and cinemas don't get money based on how many tickets get used, they get money based on how many tickets get SOLD.

Dio @ Mar 12th 2008 9:56PM

They actually make very little on tickets sold. Almost all of their revenue comes from the things people buy WITH their tickets, such as soda and popcorn etc.

tmacairjordan87 @ Mar 12th 2008 3:23PM

hmm play gta 4 which could be one of the best games ever, or watch a movie about a 2nd rate "superhero" played by an over the hill drug addict who sucked a guy (or guys...who knows what he did) off just for a little coke. Who knew hollywood was so stingy with their money? man can't even afford a little coke anymore!

thispaceforsale @ Mar 12th 2008 3:25PM

Oh man, Janco Partners strikes again! Their prime example of Halo 3 sinking The Heartbreak Kid ignored just about every serious level of possible analysis.

I really hope the rest of the research firm is reputable.

WizarDru @ Mar 12th 2008 3:26PM

That only tracks if you assume that Halo 3 actually was responsible for low box office in October....and not movies that had very little appeal to a broad audience. Which is demonstrably false.

Let's look at early October, when the movie industry says that Halo beat it up and took it's lunch money:

Michael Clayton
The Seeker
The Heartbreak Kid
Weirdsville

For the whole of October, you have three kinds of movies: Horror Films, Art House Films/Early Oscar Films and DREK. There's no blockbusters here. There are NEVER blockbusters in October. Google a list of films for the last five years. When Hollywood releases stuff like "I Heart Huckabees" and "Saw 2"...you're not going to see huge numbers. Iron Man is a widely-anticipated blockbuster with good buzz. It will do '300' numbers, at the very least.

The simple fact is that home video has now reached a point where seeing a movie in the theater is both a bigger hassle and more expensive than getting it on DVD, VoD or rental. Movie theaters have priced themselves out of the market...that's nothing on the video games market.

CB @ Mar 12th 2008 3:26PM

More spewed BS!

jdeuel @ Mar 12th 2008 3:27PM

a cookiecutter superhero movie, or the-same-gta-we've-been-playing-for-half-a-decade-with-ragdoll

decisions, decisions!

tmacairjordan87 @ Mar 12th 2008 3:46PM

three cheers to the genious who thinks GTA 4 is using ragdoll. There's a big difference between ragdoll and the euphoria engine, look it up.

also, I guess having a whole new aiming and cover system doesn't count as a big deal either..nope not at all.

Grindstone @ Mar 12th 2008 3:28PM

I think I'm more likely to see Iron Man over GTA VI. I mean, it's only fair, I didn't go to the movies when Halo 3 came out. I kinda owe them for that...

ChooChooCharlie @ Mar 12th 2008 3:56PM

What are you talking about?

You don't "owe" Hollywood anything. They are trying to sell YOU something, meaning they actually have to work to convince you to purchase a ticket to see their product. If it's shit and it tanks, it's completely their fault. The only way for any business to survive is to cater to the consumer to meet their needs/desires.

With the movie industry the way it is as of late, I couldn't care less if it collapsed - at least it would mean I wouldn't have to watch some awful commercial for Step Up 2: The Streets anymore.