Pachter: GTA IV could sell 9 million units by Halloween

by Alexander Sliwinski { Mar 12th 2008 at 4:30PM }

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter believes Grand Theft Auto IV could become the best-selling game of 2008, with $450 million in revenue and over 9 million units sold by the end of Take-Two's fiscal year (Oct. 31). He believes that GTA IV will ship 6 million units in its first week and sell 75% of that in a brief amount of time -- that means the game should not be difficult to find at any big box retailer. GTA IV is expected to mask the "underperformance" of other Take-Two games and make up "100% of Take-Two's earnings for the year."

It's not all sunshine and lollipops, though, as Pachter questions the profitability of GTA IV's Xbox 360 exclusive downloadable content. The conclusion of some fancy math is that 50% of Xbox 360 GTA IV owners will have to purchase the DLC for Take-Two to generate cash from the deal, which Pachter believes is "not highly likely." Taking GTA IV out of the equation, Pachter continues to make his case for the EA buyout of Take-Two by saying the company continues to lose market share and revenues. GTA IV unleashes panic on Liberty City beginning April 29.

Tags: grand-theft-auto, grand-theft-auto-iv, gta, GTA-4, GTA-IV, GTA4, gtaiv, pachter, rockstar, sales, take-two

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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)

Fernando Rocker @ Mar 12th 2008 4:37PM

Look... It will be a good game, I'm not saying it was going to be a bad game.

But the succes of GTA on the PS2 was mostly because of the gigantic install base, and because the game appealed both the hardcore and casual gamers.

I don't think this game is going to pull Halo numbers. Just my two cents... no bashing or anything.

Fernando Rocker @ Mar 12th 2008 4:38PM

I meant... Halo numbers in just one console... combined it will have Call of Duty 4 numbers.

ChooChooCharlie @ Mar 12th 2008 4:46PM

I disagree.

I think the reason it sold so well was because GTA is the pinnacle of sandbox games. The series has refined everything about the genre (including the visuals with this new offering) and gained a large following because of this. The fact that it was on PS2 does help (since the install base is practically everyone on the face of the earth), but all those buyers could have just as easily bought any one of the other thousands of titles available.

nick @ Mar 12th 2008 4:47PM

I think overall, across all platforms, GTV will pull in at least 10 million easy, if not more. There's just that huge installed base that's already familiar with the game, and outside of Nintendo games, this is one of the biggest franchises out there right now.

The only thing that would affect the numbers would be if the game for some reason sucked.

upz @ Mar 12th 2008 4:55PM

I usually agree with Pachter, but this time, I'm with you guys. Nine million by Halloween is far too ambitious.

Also, Fernando, you love to cite the PS2's install base as the cause for everything, but keep in mind that that monstrous 100+ million base wasn't always around - certainly not at the time of GTA3.

Fernando Rocker @ Mar 12th 2008 4:58PM

Yeah upz

But GTA3 did't sell that amount in just 1 year... the game had extremely long legs, growing at the same speed as the PS2 hardware sales.

Maverick Saturn @ Mar 12th 2008 5:19PM

Are you on crack Fernando? Pull Halo numbers? Ill be suprised if Halo ever pulled GTA numbers, and thats saying something.

I seriously believe the only game that will beat this is just possibly Wii Sports, simply because Wii Sports came with most Wiis and Wiis sold incredibly.

If not, this will even pass wii sports and become the best selling gamne of the generation.

People without PS3s or 360s are sitting waiting to buy either one just for this game. Not to mention, unlike Halo which pretty much appealed to either Americans and / or 360 owners, this game appeals to everyone, from Japan, and Austrailia to Europe and America. There is NO WAY ON EARTH THIS GAME COULD SELL LESS THEN HALO 3

deaftly @ Mar 12th 2008 5:33PM

My brawl should be coming in today Focker. I'll shoot you a message with my code.

samfish @ Mar 12th 2008 5:42PM

I'm inclined to agree. I don't think it'll flop by any means, but I suspect that at the end of the day, it'll be the lowest selling GTA console game to date.

Shagittarius @ Mar 12th 2008 6:01PM

GTA III was an amazing step forward for games of that time as well as being some of the most fun you could have playing games at that time.

Innovation + Fun = Win

Gimmick + Fun = Wii

Mr Khan @ Mar 12th 2008 6:19PM

nobody ever brought up the Wii

I don't think it will be the lowest selling GTA to date, but i do feel that its sales will be a step backwards from San Andreas. The series, developer, and publisher have taken a lot of flak between now and then (and Hot Coffee is only part of that equation)

Shagittarius @ Mar 12th 2008 6:21PM

Maverik Saturn brought up the wii.

colinbell @ Mar 12th 2008 4:48PM

I wonder who pays for the DLC? Is it the customers of 360, or does MS shoulderpart fo the cost?
And, I wonder if the DLC will really work for such a massive game. I mean, I dont think many people could hope to completely play through all that a GTA offers, and paying for Saints Row 2, even if inferior, may be a better idea than paying for more GTA.
And MS' comments about "the full GTA experience" is a bit funny - because by that logic, the 10 million people who bought the 360 in 2006, when the only "great" exclsuive was Gears, should have waited and bought the PC version for the "ful experience" of that game, and at a lower retail price as well!

D_Average @ Mar 12th 2008 4:49PM

One's things for sure, I'm not gonna buy it. I'm more of an Indy-Core gamer.

Jacksons @ Mar 12th 2008 6:35PM

What does that even mean?

D_Average @ Mar 12th 2008 8:52PM

Man....you just wouldn't understand

Nick Ritch @ Mar 13th 2008 12:07AM

You're probably the one of the 10 people that bought Space Giraffe huh?

D_Average @ Mar 13th 2008 12:07PM

No way dude, I was too busy playing Line Rider.

colinbell @ Mar 12th 2008 4:52PM

Vice city sold 14mn, and it was launched in 2002 I think, when the PS2 base was not bigger than 360 + PS3 today.
The only problem I see is with the DLC, and mainly because its being launched so quickly - if the DLC were to come 18 months later, say, it would sell tons. I would think people would be saturated with a game as massive as GTA - I could be wrong perhaps, not the biggest GTA fan around.

Maverick Saturn @ Mar 12th 2008 5:29PM

True point, dunno though, its a juggling act, too soon means theres nothing left to look forward to, and too far can often be annoying, especially if when you get it, the content wasn't worth the wait.

Ronshatmycarl @ Mar 12th 2008 5:02PM

I thought that you guys just did a story about how market analyst are never right. If so then why are you running this story?

ComradeTrotskii @ Mar 12th 2008 5:03PM

RE: The DLC. Didn't Microsoft throw a load of cash (I have the figure $50 million in my head!) at Take Two for exclusive access to the DLC.

I imagine that would be enough to generate cash from the deal.

copa @ Mar 12th 2008 5:29PM

This is widely misunderstood, but Microsoft did not give Take Two $50 million outright to create the GTA4 DLC.

Rather, Microsoft simply fronted them the money as an advance, so they have to 'repay' the money against DLC sales. That is why Pachter is saying they have to sell an ungodly amount of DLC before they will ever see any more money off of it.

This means Take Two got some upfront cash to offset their awful quarterly losses before the GTA4 release, and Microsoft was able to nail down a AAA exclusive without paying anything (other than lost interest on the advance) over the long term.

Syn @ Mar 12th 2008 5:30PM

The $50million was for 2 exclusive chapters. 360 and PS3 are getting DLC.

Maverick Saturn @ Mar 12th 2008 5:49PM

All that cash for 2 exclusive episodes? Doubt it, thats stupid. Thats laughable. If thats true, I don't care which console I manage to get the game for, if I can't get the 360 version, I'll just pick up the PS3 version.

Captain Blaggers @ Mar 12th 2008 5:06PM

I doubt the whole 50 million Microsoft threw at Take Two will be used as development capital. I'd imagine they've siphoned off some of it already.

Also, I can totally see GTA selling that many copies, but perhaps not in just six months. I could very well be wrong, though?

ComradeTrotskii @ Mar 12th 2008 5:12PM

Why would it matter if all of it is used as development capital? Take Two are receiving £50million for providing DLC to the 360 thus if the DLC costs less than $50 million they have generated cas from the deal even if the DLC sells zero

Captain Blaggers @ Mar 12th 2008 5:20PM

That's what I meant, I just worded it badly.

Maverick Saturn @ Mar 12th 2008 5:27PM

I wouldn't be suprised if it did, with the amount of hype this game is getting, I could see it making those numbers in less then 6 months, gamers on all consoles have been waiting for GTA like 360 fans have been waiting for Halo 3. Once it releases, convo will be non stop GTA4, unless it sucks of course.

Maverick Saturn @ Mar 12th 2008 5:24PM

GTA4 will pull in endless sales no matter what.

Fernando, Halo 3 is a minor, it is a specific game aiming at a specific type of gamer, fps fans. Either FPS fans, Americans, 360 owners or Halo fans will pick this up, its hardly likely you'll get your mum interested in playing Halo as you would GTA or Wii games.

That comment is daft. GTA is not only popular worldwide, its on both consoles, which is a bonus, it has a huge fanbase, it has never sold badly, even on PSP it was popular, really there is no reason for GTA to underperform.

Even people who know nothing about gaming know about GTA or Wii. Try mentioning Halo to a few mothers and see thier responces, while the GTA name may be negative because of its 'kill' and 'violence' routine, it is known worldwide.

carbuncle2322 @ Mar 12th 2008 5:30PM

I agree. The GTA formula has been around since GTA on the PS. I've enjoyed it all. I think the studio has done a job of evolving the series. Im buying mine on the PS3 even though that means lack of DLC. Im not worried. I think Rockstar will do a great job building a title that is "full". GTA will sell that many. The brand name is quite powerful now. Feel sorry for Iron Man. ;)

samfish @ Mar 12th 2008 5:47PM

"Even people who know nothing about gaming know about GTA or Wii. Try mentioning Halo to a few mothers and see thier responces, while the GTA name may be negative because of its 'kill' and 'violence' routine, it is known worldwide."

Mortal Kombat has the same stigma as the GTA name, but I don't think those games are regularly cracking even a million units anymore. Things fall from grace eventually.

I think the real question is will the media bite again regarding GTA's violence and create another firestorm or will they let it slide, as it's become old hat?

carbuncle2322 @ Mar 12th 2008 5:57PM

I don't think so. Mortal kombat is really just a fictional 2d fighter, GTA4 is more "realistic". You bet your ass Thompson is going to be all over this one.

Maverick Saturn @ Mar 12th 2008 6:00PM

Nah, GTA will sell, MK is nothing compared to GTA, they don't fit in the same class, the only thing you can do in MK is fight, meaning that none beat em up fans are left without anything else. GTA doesn't have that problem, its all fun. You spend most of the time messing about. Tell me, what other game other then Wii as a whole stands up to GTA?

Farseer (GDI) @ Mar 12th 2008 5:37PM

GTA III is what prompted me to buy a PS2. I've been waiting for GTA IV for a long time now. In fact, it is one of the only games in recent memory that I actually reserved (because of the SE gear, of course).

Stef Geiger @ Mar 12th 2008 5:39PM

Well, they're not getting MY money unless they fix the apparent framerate issues they have. When even the trailers they release are sub-20fps, we have a problem.

carbuncle2322 @ Mar 12th 2008 5:59PM

Don't worry. Thats the whole "polishing" period that follows a near release. I don't see rockstar committing a grave error by releasing a half ass sub-par GTA game.

MoMoney @ Mar 12th 2008 10:51PM

GTA first came out on just PS2. Now it will be released on PS3 and 360. It's going to do 6 millions copies in 3 days. Mark my words with a sharpie!

Stef Geiger @ Mar 12th 2008 6:37PM

Yeah... that would be a.... 1:4 attach rate. Not happening.

Debikul @ Mar 12th 2008 8:10PM

Actually GTA began on the PC.

jynxycat @ Mar 12th 2008 10:33PM

^ lol owned -.-

Maverick Saturn @ Mar 12th 2008 5:57PM

Both consoles, at same time = Big cash.

Heck, on PS2 alone it was making big cash :)

Mills and Boom @ Mar 12th 2008 6:02PM

Originally I really wanted this game. Now I'm playing through GTA:SA again and I don't think it's going to match that. The sheer map size of that game was a real step forward to non-linear, open games. Whereas GTA IV looks more like a technological step forward more than anything else.

We'll see. Looking at the new Xbox 360 price in the UK I might have to get this if the reviews tell me its better than San Andreas.

As for 9 million? Easy. If not then it'll definitely do above 5 million. Probably do better on the 360 too considering how popular both GTA and the Xbox are to yanks. Be interesting to see how it does in GTA's homeland of the UK, what with the PS3 being stiffer competition.

jynxycat @ Mar 12th 2008 10:35PM

They already said it wouldn't be as large geologically as San Andreas, as it's only one town, but also not as large as GTAIII. But the entire city is going to be chalk full of detail, in every nook and cranny.

I'll take a lifelike city over bland buildings/trees for miles.

Mills and Boom @ Mar 12th 2008 10:40PM

I dunno, for me it just felt like I had all this room to move around in. I could set up a save house somewhere miles from the city part. Sure upclose the buildings and stuff were bland and "PSP" like in graphics.

I think I just appreciate the exploration value, living in quite a large open area myself. Screw missions I just like the big sandpit that the series is.

And not as large as GTA3? Christ that game was tiny. Way to make me not want to play :----(

Arttemis @ Mar 26th 2008 12:23PM

I also have been playing through GTA:SA again, this time on PC (and the amount of mods available are mind-bogglingly awesome...), and I had the exact same thoughts. There's so much in San Andreas, it makes me sad that significant portions will be cut for the 4th installment.

Originally, this didn't bother me much because I figured that GTA4 would be expanded upon with sequels (similar to Vice City and San Andreas) once the engine and process are perfected... With the imminent purchase by EA looming over the studio, I'm not really sure if those features will ever be developed... instead of a rushed new city to be released every year ala Sims games.

I truly would like to see a game as expansive in size and content as GTA:SA (even if the graphics aren't that great... I don't care about that) with the physics and systems of GTA4. Eventually?

Shagittarius @ Mar 12th 2008 6:06PM

Are you serious? Are you really pretending that there is room for intellectual, hipster babel in the games industry already?

No way, the Game industry hasn't sold out. You can't only play arthouse/indy games yet when the best experiences are still made by major game studios...the tools aren't there for the indy's to compete yet.

Go ahead and get your head start on the psuedo intellectual indy/stuck up/ ponce/ game dev click though.

Shagittarius @ Mar 12th 2008 6:07PM

This was supposed to be a reply to D_Averages comment:

"One's things for sure, I'm not gonna buy it. I'm more of an Indy-Core gamer. "

Shagittarius @ Mar 12th 2008 6:10PM

Scratch all that, looking at his comment history you can see hes just a Wii fanboy who mistakenly thinks Nintendo = Indy / Arthouse.

Killer @ Mar 12th 2008 6:14PM

Where is he getting this idea?
"It's not all sunshine and lollipops, though, as Pachter questions the profitability of GTA IV's Xbox 360 exclusive downloadable content."

So he's thinking that the console that has 7+ game/pre console ratio, those people aren't going to buy the content? Hell I have 6 games and I'm going to buy the exclusive content, if it makes the game last even longer its worth the money even more. If it stupid stuff like clothes or weapons than I can only see the non-profit happen. Pachter you're guessing to much, just sit down and just keep whispering to yourself that "EA is going to buy TT2".

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