Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter believes Grand Theft Auto IV could become the best-selling game of 2008, with $450 million in revenue and over 9 million units sold by the end of Take-Two's fiscal year (Oct. 31). He believes that GTA IV will ship 6 million units in its first week and sell 75% of that in a brief amount of time -- that means the game should not be difficult to find at any big box retailer. GTA IV is expected to mask the "underperformance" of other Take-Two games and make up "100% of Take-Two's earnings for the year."
It's not all sunshine and lollipops, though, as Pachter questions the profitability of GTA IV's Xbox 360 exclusive downloadable content. The conclusion of some fancy math is that 50% of Xbox 360 GTA IV owners will have to purchase the DLC for Take-Two to generate cash from the deal, which Pachter believes is "not highly likely." Taking GTA IV out of the equation, Pachter continues to make his case for the EA buyout of Take-Two by saying the company continues to lose market share and revenues. GTA IV unleashes panic on Liberty City beginning April 29.
Reader Comments (68)
Posted: Mar 12th 2008 6:19PM Jakey777 said
According to data(wikipedia):
-it's 15mill for Vice City(Consoles + PC combined),
-12 mill for SA(PS2)
-and 12 mill for GTA3(Combined again).
It will definitely sell at least 5 mill but nine seems a tad bullshit imo.
As for SA: The size sucked utter balls. It was alright when all the mission revolved around the same city but since 25% of them required you to run across the whole FUCKING state, the game was slightly impossible without the jetpack/hydra cheat.Small cities FTW.
Crackdown sized Liberty City would be perfect.
-it's 15mill for Vice City(Consoles + PC combined),
-12 mill for SA(PS2)
-and 12 mill for GTA3(Combined again).
It will definitely sell at least 5 mill but nine seems a tad bullshit imo.
As for SA: The size sucked utter balls. It was alright when all the mission revolved around the same city but since 25% of them required you to run across the whole FUCKING state, the game was slightly impossible without the jetpack/hydra cheat.Small cities FTW.
Crackdown sized Liberty City would be perfect.
Posted: Mar 12th 2008 6:34PM Spunky Monkey 190906 said
Lol, I've gotta admit, the long journeys were pisstake.
But I seriously doubt this game will perform badly, especially now that theres no blacks in it for all the racists to complain about, and how they wanted mafia style back, well its back now, hope your happy people, cos now its Russian mafia.
Reply
But I seriously doubt this game will perform badly, especially now that theres no blacks in it for all the racists to complain about, and how they wanted mafia style back, well its back now, hope your happy people, cos now its Russian mafia.
Posted: Mar 12th 2008 6:53PM Jakey777 said
If Niko doesn't drink 3 bottles of spirit before each mission, get a bear fist-fighting minigame and chop somebody's balls off for not paying his debts,I'll refuse to call him Russian. In fact the whole Russian Mafia will probably be as exaggerated(and not violent enough too)as Black Ghetto in SA.
Oh and there are black characters too.I've played SA for so long that if I see another fucking African-American face again, I'll take out Sasha and go on a killing spree.
Reply
Oh and there are black characters too.I've played SA for so long that if I see another fucking African-American face again, I'll take out Sasha and go on a killing spree.
Posted: Mar 12th 2008 6:37PM Pojomofo said
A lot of you are underselling Halo 3's value. Go wiki Halo 3 and see all the sales records it broke. I think GTA can get close to those numbers, but those who think GTA IV will sell 1.8 Million in 8 hours, or make $170 Million on its first day are smokin crack.
I do however think that 9 mil for GTA by halloween is possible, but a pretty estimate
I do however think that 9 mil for GTA by halloween is possible, but a pretty estimate
Posted: Mar 12th 2008 7:28PM (Unverified) said
Judging by the past sales of the GTA games seven months should be plenty of time for 7-8 million 360 owners to buy a copy, unless of course RockStar makes a huge error of some kind.
Posted: Mar 12th 2008 7:41PM Otimus said
The thing in GTA's favor is simply this:
It appeals to damned near everyone. Hardcore, casual, no-core, Old people, young people, middle people, midgets, cats, dogs, etc etc.
I think it'll underperform Halo 3, for example, in just 360 sales, in the short term but overall, it's probably going to gross nearly 10-15 Million in the long run, on both systems.
I think the DLC isn't going to sell that well.. simply for the fact that it's DLC, and people are too mentally inept to press the buttons on the menu to get to it.
"HOW I MINE FOR DLC? DURRR *jabs head with controller* ME NOT KNOW! ME NOT KNOOOOW!"
It appeals to damned near everyone. Hardcore, casual, no-core, Old people, young people, middle people, midgets, cats, dogs, etc etc.
I think it'll underperform Halo 3, for example, in just 360 sales, in the short term but overall, it's probably going to gross nearly 10-15 Million in the long run, on both systems.
I think the DLC isn't going to sell that well.. simply for the fact that it's DLC, and people are too mentally inept to press the buttons on the menu to get to it.
"HOW I MINE FOR DLC? DURRR *jabs head with controller* ME NOT KNOW! ME NOT KNOOOOW!"
Posted: Mar 12th 2008 8:16PM (Unverified) said
A lot of people have downloaded stuff for Rock Band without much trouble. I'll bet plenty of people will be all over extra GTA content.
I'll further bet that we may see a few banner ads for the DLC on Live when it finally drops.
Reply
I'll further bet that we may see a few banner ads for the DLC on Live when it finally drops.
Posted: Mar 12th 2008 8:18PM (Unverified) said
I hope that was a sarcastic post.
I think the one big demographic that GTA appeals to: people who have 5 different Scarface posters framed in their house.
But GTA IV is easily going to push 5 million by the end of the year. Whether it's deserving, we'll find out soon enough. I hesitate to call this game a system seller simply because the rules have changed in the past 4 years - I suspect this game won't change peoples' minds about purchasing a PS3 or 360.
Reply
I think the one big demographic that GTA appeals to: people who have 5 different Scarface posters framed in their house.
But GTA IV is easily going to push 5 million by the end of the year. Whether it's deserving, we'll find out soon enough. I hesitate to call this game a system seller simply because the rules have changed in the past 4 years - I suspect this game won't change peoples' minds about purchasing a PS3 or 360.
Posted: Mar 12th 2008 7:40PM (Unverified) said
I probably won't even finish GTA4. 100 hours?!?
Posted: Mar 12th 2008 8:04PM (Unverified) said
san andreas came out four years ago and sold 12 million copies on 2 systems that had higher install bases at the time than the ps3 and 360 have now...yet gta 4 is somehow supposed to sell 9 million in 6 months?
riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight...if you believe that i've got a bridge in brooklyn you might want to buy too.
riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight...if you believe that i've got a bridge in brooklyn you might want to buy too.
Posted: Mar 12th 2008 9:43PM (Unverified) said
Joystiq, please stop posting these analysts' predictions (especially this idiot Pachter), they are pointless.
Posted: Mar 13th 2008 5:14AM drun said
I...dont understand why it's so popular. whatever, I dont have a 360 anyway.
Posted: Mar 13th 2008 10:44AM (Unverified) said
hahah... mgs much?
Posted: Mar 13th 2008 12:15PM Tez said
Is anybody else sick of Michael Pachter's useless "duh" predictions? How did this guy get the job? I want it.
Posted: Mar 29th 2008 2:23AM hvnlysoldr said
It could possibly be the best seller this year. Then again SSBB has an incredible life span...
Featured Stories
Super Joystiq Podcast 004: 38 Studios meltdown, Gravity Rush, Civilization 5: Gods & Kings, Dragon's Dogma
Posted on May 25th 2012 3:30PM




