Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter jumped right on Take-Two's dismissal of EA's buyout offer and says it was "ill advised." GameDaily reprints Pachter's analysis in which he goes point by point over how, in his opinion, Take-Two's board screwed up. He believes the company was positioned to get even more money out of EA if it had offered a "friendly transaction" instead of continuing its "adversarial posture."
Pachter believes that if Take-Two is holding out for more money following the release of Grand Theft Auto IV, the tactic is "naive at best, and disingenuous at worst." He states that GTA IV's sales will not ultimately impact the value of the company and that EA's $26 per share offer was done even with GTA IV sales in mind. Pachter goes on to say that if EA doesn't get controlling interesting of Take-Two with its tender offer, it will withdraw the offer and Take-Two's stock will take a 20% hit. He surmises the drop will be even worse if the market doesn't presume EA to be taking a walk around the block before picking up Take-Two later.













(Page 1) Reader Comments
Reply
...
[Wishes series was never cancelled]
*is a nonconformist*
Now I know your ways 'cause they're just like mine
Now I'm justified as I fall in line and it's hard to try
when your open wide"
Look at me. I'm on TV. You can't take this show from me.
Take my doctor, make him squeal. I'm told our whore is quite a deal. We say Zed instead of Zee. You can't take this show from me.
They're airing baseball yet again. We might not break episode ten. But you can’t take this show from me...
1. They rejected Whedon's pilot episode and picked another episode as the pilot
2. They aired episodes out of order making following the storyline impossible
3. They postponed episodes in favor of airing sporting events and didnt notify anyone about it.
and a bunch of other BS.
why, oh why, was that show ever cancelled? i've watched those episodes more than any other dvd I own.
Uh whaaaA?!
Reply
I wonder how much longer it will be until EA takes them by force.
Think of it this way: If the stock was definitely going to go up right after GTA's release because people expected good sales then everyone would just buy the stock BEFORE the release to get in before the stock price increased. By doing this the stock price increases earlier and therefore already reflects GTA's release. It's a bit more complicated than that but that's the jist of it.
Reply
yaaaaaaaaawwwwwn
Kind of doubt they're worried about not being bought by EA.
Go Pachter go! (gobots?)
Reply
Reply
Reply
People are more hyped for MGS4 or even Killzone... but until date I have not seen a lot of hype for GTA, at least not outside the core gamers.
Maybe in April the hype will begin, with all the free publicity ad controversy.
And please, I'm not bashing, I will try and finish GTA... I have al the past games and never get interested in finish the games.
Is not bashing, just an opinion.
Reply
:)
Oh and running over hookers and drinking coffee too.
But I still love them.
Or you live under a rock, I can't decide which.
Reply
On another note... it's sad to see that this is what the gaming industry is coming down to. Consolidation and the death of small independent developers. Even successful companies like Bioware have succumbed to the siren song of big time money.
Reply
Reply
Pachter shuts the fuck up.
Until then... sigh
Reply
I always love seeing the backlash against him though. Like how he went to business school for four years, learning the industry, begins reading anything in the industry from press releases to post mortems, reads about 60+ hours a week, and forms his opinion from that. And it shows since he has the highest accuracy rating.
But some fucktard on a Halo 3 board knows better for fuck Pachter.... heh.
Reply
We all know your hatred with MS and love affair with Sony, but FFS, give it a rest.
Also, pay attention.... the only reason why I'm down on 360 is because I had it fail on me five times. Extra comedy? My friend who bought it had it go down an additional two. I'd like to see you be all roses and smiles over a console that failed you that many times, especially when two of those events weren't covered by the warranty. Hell, most people bitch at the first time. And if I wasn't willing to give them another shot, I would have sold my games and hard drive long ago. Right now, I'm waiting on the Jaspers. I still have my sealed copy of Halo 3 (I went down 3 days before that game launched...) and Mass Effect and still want to finish Bioshock one day.
Pachter is not really that good. You rarely ever see him make "predictions" more than a few weeks out from any upcoming event in the industry. So say company X is about a week away from posting their quarterlies, Pachter steps in with a "prediction" about said quarterly reports that usually rings close to the mark. But here's the thing. Anyone keeping track of industry trackers like NPD or Media Crate could have made the exact same "prediction" and gotten it just as right. The very fact that every fucking gaming forum on the internet has at least one member that does just that and makes the exact same "predictions" just as accurately should have invalidated Pachter's wunderkind abilities ages ago. It's no different than how a week before GDC 2007, Pachter comes out and "predicts" that Microsoft is going to unveil Gears of War 2 at the events. Well fuck, of course he can make that "prediction" when the fact that the story had already leaked to the internet two weeks before GDC. You talk about reading into the industry 60+ hours a week, well there are literally hundreds of thousands of gamers that do the same thing - they're called internet forums.
Now here is where things get pretty funny. Whenever Pacther is required to make an actual prediction for events that are six, twelve, eighteen, twenty-four months down the road (what real Wall Street analysts are paid big money for), Pachter's success rate drops off the scale. More often than not, he gets it completely wrong - even stuff that would be obvious as fuck to the average Joe on any of the myriad of internet forums, Pachter gets it dead wrong if he has got make a real prediction more than a few months out.
So stuff like how he predicted Xbox 360 would only be 30% of the market - WRONG!
Or how he predicted PS3 would kick ass at launch and then go on to dominate 2007 - WRONG!
Or how following E3 2006 (remember the stampedes and long lines to see the Wii?), Pachter predicted the Wii would be a failure - FUCKING WRONG!
I could go on, but I think you see the point. Anytime he's got to make a longterm prediction that anyone could have made accurately, he gets it completely wrong - almost everytime. At times, it's almost as if he knows absolutely nothing about the video games industry.
See the thing is, Pachter only makes "predictions" these days once whatever events are at play, have a high percentage chance of being guaranteed - the proverbial "sure thing". He makes himself look good in this fashion as he tricks people like yourself into thinking that he has done something that no one else could have done. And even then, he only gets it right about 70% right, so even on his "sure bets" there is a large margin for error. Which is about the same large margin of error you'd see if you read many of the educated predictions at half the online gaming forums. The only difference is, Pachter probably gets paid some huge salary like $250,000/year to do what most of us having been doing for free. That alone is reason enough to generate a sizable backlash against Pachter from the online community. However, in Pachter's defense, he has not allowed any of it to go to his head. He honestly seems to be a genuinely nice guy. And seriously, is it really fault that so many people fall so easily for his smoke and mirrors performance? Let's be honest everyone, if you are one of the many gamers out there who have a prediction track record on par or better than Pachter's, if you could score big money salary (plus speaking deals, and no doubt, soon enough, endorsements) for doing this crap for a living, you mean to tell me you'd pass up on the offer? I don't think so. I personally have a damned good prediction track record, anyone wants to pay me even $150,000/year, and I'd make sure you saw my face just as much as you saw Pachter's. I'd be the 30something red bone, with the stylish eyewear, lots of charisma and a low-cut fade. And yes, I'd always have a shiteating smile on my face, because scamming so many into paying me the big money, should never have gotten to be so easy
Really, the last thing we need is for EA to absorb more publishers/developers into them.
Reply
Reply
Reply
look at phone/cable companies, etc. It's all moving that direction. The games industry is already pretty much where the film industry is at- a handful of major players pulling the strings of hundreds of smaller studios. The only difference is that the games industry is still growing at an alarming rate, and the film industry is not..
Reply
Reply
Would the average metascore of the T2 franchises drop by eight to ten points under EA? Almost assuredly.
I'm not an investor, I'm a gamer, so I'm more concerned with the quality of video games than I am with the rich getting richer.
Reply