Pachter: Take-Two's rejection of EA offer a mistake
by Alexander Sliwinski 
{ Mar 26th 2008 at 4:30PM }
Pachter believes that if Take-Two is holding out for more money following the release of Grand Theft Auto IV, the tactic is "naive at best, and disingenuous at worst." He states that GTA IV's sales will not ultimately impact the value of the company and that EA's $26 per share offer was done even with GTA IV sales in mind. Pachter goes on to say that if EA doesn't get controlling interesting of Take-Two with its tender offer, it will withdraw the offer and Take-Two's stock will take a 20% hit. He surmises the drop will be even worse if the market doesn't presume EA to be taking a walk around the block before picking up Take-Two later.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
THE WICKER MAN (BWF) (GT: Dalek Prime) @ Mar 26th 2008 4:32PM
I have found serenity
Spartacus @ Mar 26th 2008 5:00PM
Heck yes. Kudos to Alexander for the Firefly reference and +1 to you for catching it.
...
[Wishes series was never cancelled]
Sir Fidlious Wong (Zeon Defense Force) @ Mar 26th 2008 5:01PM
So this is the wrong place to celebrate Unification Day?
*is a nonconformist*
Thranx @ Mar 26th 2008 6:47PM
haha, amen. Props to the Firefly nod.
EMOruffino @ Mar 26th 2008 6:50PM
"Firefly could you shine your light
Now I know your ways 'cause they're just like mine
Now I'm justified as I fall in line and it's hard to try
when your open wide"
stoik @ Mar 26th 2008 7:48PM
Take my dog, take my cat. Western without cowboy hats.
Look at me. I'm on TV. You can't take this show from me.
Take my doctor, make him squeal. I'm told our whore is quite a deal. We say Zed instead of Zee. You can't take this show from me.
They're airing baseball yet again. We might not break episode ten. But you can’t take this show from me...
Kris @ Mar 26th 2008 9:30PM
I'm a recent browncoat but I think the real mistake everyone should be talking about is why fox canceled this show and/or when will they pick it back up or universal make a sequel.
nutman @ Mar 26th 2008 9:48PM
Fox canceled it because they're retards. Basically the show was unable to attract viewers because the retarded monkeys at fox fucked with it.
1. They rejected Whedon's pilot episode and picked another episode as the pilot
2. They aired episodes out of order making following the storyline impossible
3. They postponed episodes in favor of airing sporting events and didnt notify anyone about it.
and a bunch of other BS.
mian @ Mar 27th 2008 1:08AM
Serenity reference = win.
Craig @ Mar 30th 2008 9:36PM
gotta love the firefly ref. though, I'm not sure what it has to do with GTAIV, I'll take it :)
why, oh why, was that show ever cancelled? i've watched those episodes more than any other dvd I own.
ViagraFiend @ Mar 26th 2008 4:34PM
"He states that GTA IV's sales will not ultimately impact the value of the company"
Uh whaaaA?!
Curtis the Claw: Brawl Code 1075-0441-3284 @ Mar 26th 2008 4:49PM
He is right. GTA4 will give the stock a temporary boost for a little, if that even. My guess is GTA4 has already been taken into account for their stock.
I wonder how much longer it will be until EA takes them by force.
pandlcg @ Mar 27th 2008 12:28PM
Curtis is right. With the release of GTA IV so close i'd assume the stock already reflected that even before EA's offer.
Think of it this way: If the stock was definitely going to go up right after GTA's release because people expected good sales then everyone would just buy the stock BEFORE the release to get in before the stock price increased. By doing this the stock price increases earlier and therefore already reflects GTA's release. It's a bit more complicated than that but that's the jist of it.
Bleu @ Mar 26th 2008 4:35PM
Shut the hell up patcher, go fuck a goat!
Curtis the Claw: Brawl Code 1075-0441-3284 @ Mar 26th 2008 4:55PM
Grow up.
BPM X: Soul Eraser [SSBB: 5026 4120 1186] @ Mar 26th 2008 5:04PM
Okay, but how will that help?
Sir Fidlious Wong (Zeon Defense Force) @ Mar 26th 2008 5:08PM
He'd replace "goat" with "kidd" because then he'd have a better sense of controversy and he could indicate pedophilia to the stupid people, beastiality to the smart ones....
Markez @ Mar 26th 2008 4:37PM
Analyst wags finger, Take Two shudders in remorse.
yaaaaaaaaawwwwwn
Kind of doubt they're worried about not being bought by EA.
Go Pachter go! (gobots?)
Crono (NDF - Knight of the Old School) @ Mar 26th 2008 4:37PM
Question: How many times has Patcher been right?
ChooChooCharlie (Brawl: 1504-5357-9285) @ Mar 26th 2008 4:41PM
50% of the time, all the time.
Poisoned Al @ Mar 26th 2008 5:42PM
So why not fire the git and just flip a coin? It'll be cheaper I'm sure.
Bearxor @ Mar 26th 2008 4:38PM
I agree. GTA 4 sales are a temporary boost at best.
Fernando Rocker @ Mar 26th 2008 4:42PM
I definitely will pick this game... but honestly... I don't see a lot of hype for this game.
People are more hyped for MGS4 or even Killzone... but until date I have not seen a lot of hype for GTA, at least not outside the core gamers.
Maybe in April the hype will begin, with all the free publicity ad controversy.
And please, I'm not bashing, I will try and finish GTA... I have al the past games and never get interested in finish the games.
Is not bashing, just an opinion.
Crono (NDF - Knight of the Old School) @ Mar 26th 2008 4:46PM
OMGWTFBBQ YOU HAS OPINON!!!!!
:)
Raikage (LDF CRAB BATTLE!!!) @ Mar 26th 2008 5:03PM
Same here, GTA has always been about screwing around in a huge world, doing stuff you might get a slap on the hand for in real life.
Oh and running over hookers and drinking coffee too.
Sir Fidlious Wong (Zeon Defense Force) @ Mar 26th 2008 5:06PM
Saints Row is the only game like GTA that I've beaten....
But I still love them.
eldee @ Mar 26th 2008 5:43PM
You probably missed the hype because they don't print it in Nintendo Power.
Or you live under a rock, I can't decide which.
Big Time @ Mar 26th 2008 4:56PM
How about Pachter can Suck my B@lls. I say if EA the horible company it is, gets its hands on take 2, Ww refuse to buy there product
David @ Mar 26th 2008 9:41PM
With an attitude like that, you'll never get to run over hoes now.
eugene @ Mar 26th 2008 4:56PM
jebus, trolls aside.. at least we have one company with the balls to stand up to EA and to piss on their money. Good for you Take Two, I don't like your games but I respect your courage to keep making them the way you want.
On another note... it's sad to see that this is what the gaming industry is coming down to. Consolidation and the death of small independent developers. Even successful companies like Bioware have succumbed to the siren song of big time money.
Jon @ Mar 26th 2008 5:13PM
Take 2 are not pissing on EA because they have the balls to stand up against another giant corporation. They are just waiting for more money to be offered. Take 2 and EA are no better, they are both corporations trying to maximise profits. I don't agree with consolidation, but this is capitalism working.
Snatcher (MDF - Halo Ring) @ Mar 27th 2008 2:03AM
It really wouldnt be a big deal. Mergers happen all the time. This one is in response to ACTI-BLIZZARD. It's not like the actual employees have to stay on board. More or less EA is just buying I.P.'s with maybe a promise of major staff leaders staying on for 1 more iteration. It's not crushing the "little guy". Take two has made too much money on GTA to be the little guy. New companies will be formed and this will force them to make new I.P.'s. Win/Win.
PayTheMan @ Mar 26th 2008 4:57PM
Of course analysts say that the stock price already reflects the value of GTA4 sales. They always say that. But when Bioshock came out, TTWO shares shot up a couple of dollars. Big name games always boost stock prices around launch. TTWO shares will see a nice boost after the launch of GTA4 no matter what analysts say. It's a guarantee.
SoulBlade @ Mar 26th 2008 5:01PM
How I long for the day where we see the headline:
Pachter shuts the fuck up.
Until then... sigh
Sir Fidlious Wong (Zeon Defense Force) @ Mar 26th 2008 5:04PM
Pachter tends to have the highest accuracy among the analysts....
I always love seeing the backlash against him though. Like how he went to business school for four years, learning the industry, begins reading anything in the industry from press releases to post mortems, reads about 60+ hours a week, and forms his opinion from that. And it shows since he has the highest accuracy rating.
But some fucktard on a Halo 3 board knows better for fuck Pachter.... heh.
Knight Marquise @ Mar 26th 2008 5:52PM
How in the hell did you pull a Halo 3 analogy out of your ass?
We all know your hatred with MS and love affair with Sony, but FFS, give it a rest.
Sir Fidlious Wong (Zeon Defense Force) @ Mar 26th 2008 6:48PM
Actually, that was a bit of an accident. Wasn't intentional, just wanted to mention some random game board, for some reason Halo 3 came to mind.
Also, pay attention.... the only reason why I'm down on 360 is because I had it fail on me five times. Extra comedy? My friend who bought it had it go down an additional two. I'd like to see you be all roses and smiles over a console that failed you that many times, especially when two of those events weren't covered by the warranty. Hell, most people bitch at the first time. And if I wasn't willing to give them another shot, I would have sold my games and hard drive long ago. Right now, I'm waiting on the Jaspers. I still have my sealed copy of Halo 3 (I went down 3 days before that game launched...) and Mass Effect and still want to finish Bioshock one day.
Swagman @ Mar 26th 2008 6:59PM
Do you know exactly why Pachter has such a high "success" rate? It's all about smoke and mirrors. This is what he does, so pay attention closely.
Pachter is not really that good. You rarely ever see him make "predictions" more than a few weeks out from any upcoming event in the industry. So say company X is about a week away from posting their quarterlies, Pachter steps in with a "prediction" about said quarterly reports that usually rings close to the mark. But here's the thing. Anyone keeping track of industry trackers like NPD or Media Crate could have made the exact same "prediction" and gotten it just as right. The very fact that every fucking gaming forum on the internet has at least one member that does just that and makes the exact same "predictions" just as accurately should have invalidated Pachter's wunderkind abilities ages ago. It's no different than how a week before GDC 2007, Pachter comes out and "predicts" that Microsoft is going to unveil Gears of War 2 at the events. Well fuck, of course he can make that "prediction" when the fact that the story had already leaked to the internet two weeks before GDC. You talk about reading into the industry 60+ hours a week, well there are literally hundreds of thousands of gamers that do the same thing - they're called internet forums.
Now here is where things get pretty funny. Whenever Pacther is required to make an actual prediction for events that are six, twelve, eighteen, twenty-four months down the road (what real Wall Street analysts are paid big money for), Pachter's success rate drops off the scale. More often than not, he gets it completely wrong - even stuff that would be obvious as fuck to the average Joe on any of the myriad of internet forums, Pachter gets it dead wrong if he has got make a real prediction more than a few months out.
So stuff like how he predicted Xbox 360 would only be 30% of the market - WRONG!
Or how he predicted PS3 would kick ass at launch and then go on to dominate 2007 - WRONG!
Or how following E3 2006 (remember the stampedes and long lines to see the Wii?), Pachter predicted the Wii would be a failure - FUCKING WRONG!
I could go on, but I think you see the point. Anytime he's got to make a longterm prediction that anyone could have made accurately, he gets it completely wrong - almost everytime. At times, it's almost as if he knows absolutely nothing about the video games industry.
See the thing is, Pachter only makes "predictions" these days once whatever events are at play, have a high percentage chance of being guaranteed - the proverbial "sure thing". He makes himself look good in this fashion as he tricks people like yourself into thinking that he has done something that no one else could have done. And even then, he only gets it right about 70% right, so even on his "sure bets" there is a large margin for error. Which is about the same large margin of error you'd see if you read many of the educated predictions at half the online gaming forums. The only difference is, Pachter probably gets paid some huge salary like $250,000/year to do what most of us having been doing for free. That alone is reason enough to generate a sizable backlash against Pachter from the online community. However, in Pachter's defense, he has not allowed any of it to go to his head. He honestly seems to be a genuinely nice guy. And seriously, is it really fault that so many people fall so easily for his smoke and mirrors performance? Let's be honest everyone, if you are one of the many gamers out there who have a prediction track record on par or better than Pachter's, if you could score big money salary (plus speaking deals, and no doubt, soon enough, endorsements) for doing this crap for a living, you mean to tell me you'd pass up on the offer? I don't think so. I personally have a damned good prediction track record, anyone wants to pay me even $150,000/year, and I'd make sure you saw my face just as much as you saw Pachter's. I'd be the 30something red bone, with the stylish eyewear, lots of charisma and a low-cut fade. And yes, I'd always have a shiteating smile on my face, because scamming so many into paying me the big money, should never have gotten to be so easy
Burnt Meatloaf @ Mar 27th 2008 3:05AM
@Swagman: He would've done the Psychic Hotline thing, except he prefers that people know who he is, rather than hide behind a phone.
BPM X: Soul Eraser [SSBB: 5026 4120 1186] @ Mar 26th 2008 5:06PM
Man, Patcher is an epic troll. On a grander scale than any of Joystiq's trolls (Fernando, Killjebus, etc.).
Really, the last thing we need is for EA to absorb more publishers/developers into them.
Fernando Rocker @ Mar 26th 2008 5:14PM
=(
Sir Fidlious Wong (Zeon Defense Force) @ Mar 26th 2008 5:16PM
But Pachter makes his money saying what would make the best deals, no what makes moral sense. People confuse this easily. He doesn't give a shit what it would mean for the industry. Hell, his business is essentially taking a look at the success of 50 Cent: Bullet Proof and Scarface, looking at if either property has devaluated, and deciding whether sequels should be made based purely on those factors. Not whether the games will be good or not.
rTwelve @ Mar 26th 2008 5:30PM
I WAS JUST ABOUT TO POST WHAT YOU SAID DFSDFSDffbngfj
Ethan @ Mar 26th 2008 5:31PM
Pachter is a mistake.
ScallionN @ Mar 26th 2008 5:51PM
I'm sick of seeing all of these mergers. Are we going to end up with only one big publisher 10 years from now? You run businesses to make money, but that doesn't mean you have to check your integrity at the door.
eldee @ Mar 26th 2008 5:56PM
Answer: Yes.
look at phone/cable companies, etc. It's all moving that direction. The games industry is already pretty much where the film industry is at- a handful of major players pulling the strings of hundreds of smaller studios. The only difference is that the games industry is still growing at an alarming rate, and the film industry is not..
JakubK666 (Ninja Defence Force) @ Mar 26th 2008 6:09PM
They'll slow down.EA will assimilate.Resistance is futile.
AlphaOmegaSin @ Mar 26th 2008 6:09PM
its almost sad to see such a large company like EA stoop to the level that they are currently at, begging pleading and throwing money at whoever will take it so that their name doesnt go to hell even further, cant live off madden forever boys....
Lone Starr @ Mar 26th 2008 6:20PM
Pachter: This is a mistake because I predicted otherwise.
EihBeir @ Mar 26th 2008 6:47PM
Pachter's only interest is in the stock price. That's all his spreadsheets come down to. Might T2's stock go up four cents if it was acquired by EA? Sure, maybe.
Would the average metascore of the T2 franchises drop by eight to ten points under EA? Almost assuredly.
I'm not an investor, I'm a gamer, so I'm more concerned with the quality of video games than I am with the rich getting richer.