Former Xbox Europe exec foresees the extinction of consoles
It's been nearly a year and a half since the beginning of the current console war, and supporters of the Wii, PS3, and 360 are still set deep in their trenches, fighting the good fight. Gallons of fanboy blood and immeasurable amounts of bandwidth have been spilled in this epic struggle -- and according to Sandy Duncan, former VP for Xbox Europe, it's all for naught. All gaming consoles, he claims, will "die out" within the next five to ten years.
No, a console-corrupting pandemic isn't going to sweep the planet -- Duncan predicts that dedicated gaming devices will give way to digital distribution through cable and satellite set-top boxes and online gaming options (though considering his executive position with the web-based YoYo games, this could just be simple, doe-eyed optimism). This presents an interesting question: with no consoles to crusade for, what brave new enterprises will the fanboys move on to? Advertising? Public Relations? God help us -- politics?
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Jeff @ Mar 29th 2008 5:06PM
I can see this happening.
Why? Developers would like a single platform to develop for, and the power required for gaming is going to find itself present in many other devices.
Eventually, I imagine there will be a single box you need to go with your tv. It will play the latest form of video, record/play TV, have enough power to play videogames, and perhaps might even replace the PC.
It might take longer than 10-15 years, but eventually something will come along which consolidates all of our wonderful high-tech devices into a single unit. Right now a PC can be built that does basically that-- eventually it will be cheap and effective.
As for dedicated gaming consoles... we can expect some kind of holodeck... =)
ColossalHat @ Mar 29th 2008 5:12PM
I agree to an extent, we won't see it as soon as this former exec says, simply because the infrastructure isn't built up enough yet. When nobody has dial-up anymore, then we can start expecting to see the age of digital distribution for everything, not before.
Benny @ Mar 29th 2008 7:46PM
I agree to some extent too. People harp on about how a single console would be a monopoly and thus a bad thing, but would it really? Surely the competition would be geared more towards the games and we'd see developers really pushing the single platform to the limit.
It's like saying that having a common standard for CD players is a bad thing in the music industry. (I appreciate that isn't the greatest allegory, as consoles do need regular updates to keep up with technology, whereas CD players do not, however I still think it's quite a valid point to make).
Hashbrown_Hunter @ Mar 30th 2008 9:31AM
I also agree, and I have been expecting this too. Sony and Microsoft are developing their tech a little too quickly and forcing the market in to advancement. Nintendo, (which I have not been as much of a fan for this gen) is actually the ones who are in the safest place right now. Because they aren't taking such large leaps and bounds between technology every gen they are almost guaranteed to have a place in the market for at least another 10-15 years, while Sony and Microsoft are evolving too quickly for their own good.
Mal F4cti0n @ Mar 29th 2008 5:18PM
I completely disagree. Look at how successful consoles have become, and they have pushed PCs to being mainly used to play 'casual' games over the internet.
No, consoles will stay strong, we will probably just abandon the cartridge/disc paradigm for the games; games will be all digital distribution. Consoles will remain, games you can hold in your hands will disappear.
Alex @ Mar 29th 2008 7:20PM
Cartridge? Nobody has used cartriges since the N64.
zelderman @ Mar 29th 2008 7:23PM
Ever heard of the DS? That uses cartridges. You fail it life, and all your dreams are dead.
wootman @ Mar 30th 2008 12:11AM
no, thats a card that the DS uses.
cartridge = hole in the center.
card = looks like a SD card.
so, what you said pretty much applies to you.
Mal F4cti0n @ Mar 30th 2008 12:26PM
discs will die out just like cartridges; that was why I included them in with the games on a storage device that you buy and put into your machine.
Doesn't the DS use the gameboy cartridge too?
wootman @ Mar 30th 2008 3:16PM
yes it does, but only for addons (like the rumble pack or memory expansion) and GBA games.
i still dont get why they didnt add backwards compatibility, or haven't added it by now.
PointyThings @ Mar 29th 2008 5:20PM
Bullshit. This isn't going to happen. Maybe PCs and consoles will merge but there will always be at least 2 systems. One would be a monopoly wouldn't it?
PointyThings @ Mar 29th 2008 5:25PM
And I don't believe digital distribution will ever fully take over. For the majority of gamers, maybe, but do you think the average consumer is going to trust that a company keep track of his saves and what he bought, and let his purchases be blown by the winds of distribution rights?
Synner @ Mar 29th 2008 5:52PM
you mean sort of how a bank keeps track of your money?
Who would ever go for a crazy scheme like that?
you should totally bury all your cash in the backyard, then you don't have to trust the greedy company to keep track of it.
Micheal82 @ Mar 29th 2008 6:25PM
@ synner people trust money with the banks because the federal government protects their money. With digital distrubution there is no such protection.
dsalyers @ Mar 29th 2008 7:12PM
@synner
Also, with banks you can always go withdraw the physical representation of money. Personally, I think threre are two MAJOR problems with digital distribution gaining widespread acceptance.
1) The infrastructure to distribute large amounts of data (50 GB+ in a reasonable time frame) does not exist -- at least in the US.
2) The idea that you do not own your copy, and thus have no ability/rights to sell it to another party. This may be acceptable if the games were cheaper, but they likely will not be.
tmacairjordan87 @ Mar 29th 2008 8:30PM
you would also have to trust that the average user would know how to download the things and the rules on them, and seeing as about half of 360/ps3 owners didn't even know they played movies...i'd say we're a long way away from total digital distribution.
Synner @ Mar 30th 2008 1:06PM
when I buy a tv show over XBL, I can redownload it without any problems.
I'm not worried about a company keeping track of my purchases since I can't go to amazon without getting 500 product recommendations based on what I looked at before, keeping track of what I bought should be no problem.
If you buy anything don't you keep the receipt? I print out the "thank you for purchasing" page when I shop online, and keep a digital copy on my backup server.
As for transfer of the digital product, perhaps you should rent vice buying your movies. There isn't a problem with people buying MP3's, no one cries about transferring those when they sell them, and honestly, if you are the kind of shithead that hoards your movies, what is the likelihood of selling them anyway.
Plus it would be great on a rental basis, no more going into the video store to see they are all out of rambo, but have 300 copies of blood rayne 2.
and for all of you that keep crying about people will want to buy the DVD, or hd media is not doing anything as long as people are buying DVD, you should realize that once dvds are taking up too much shelf space and retailers are realizing that is a diminishing return on carrying a $12.99 dvd vice a $24.99 blu-ray, you aren't going to have a choice anymore.
I have a sony reader PRS-505. For those of you that don't know, it is an ebook reader. I don't buy books anymore unless it is a map or cookbook.
I would gladly pay a few bucks to go into the bookstore and plug in my reader to download the books I want. The problem is, Sony thinks I am going to pay the same price for a digital book, as I am for a paperback copy. If companies werent being greedy pices of shit and would make a digital distribution model actually more attractive than a physical media sale, it would take off like you won't believe. And I wouldn't pirate so much.
PointyThings @ Mar 30th 2008 2:51PM
OK I do see your point, but would you call yourself the average consumer? Just because you're capable of printing out receipts and backing stuff up doesn't mean my mom would be. I do think digital distribution will take off, and will be a very popular format, but it will never completely replace physical media. It's as simple as that. There are features and piece of mind that come with holding Metal Gear 4 in my hands I wouldn't compromise for a download. There are certainly advantages to digital (I can buy music without putting on pants!) but the whole system would only work if it had both. Digital won't die, neither will physical.
And do you honestly thing ebooks will take off? Is a book shelf such a burden?
Synner @ Mar 30th 2008 5:48PM
Well, considering I have 200 books and magazines that I can toss in my bag and take with me when I travel (which is often) and it takes up less space than 1 regular book, it is a convenience for me at least.
and as for the difficulty thing, they will make it easy to use when there is money in it, and they won't risk billybob having the local news do a "on your side" investigation into the mean practices of the movie download house either, so there will have to be a way to track what you have.
I mean shit MS is probably one of the most evil corporations out there (at least in most people's eyes) and look how they are always giving free shit out when they screw up. Are they going to risk $10 in a free download of a film, or people not trusting their business?
Synner @ Mar 30th 2008 5:54PM
Oh, and @ Michael,
The Fed doesn't guarantee all your money, and not to all banks (by which I am referring to credit unions)
The Fed guarantees up to 100k, after that you're on your own.
a company that has business to lose is going to be more interested in keeping track.
Besides, Steam, the sony bookstore, Stardock, and XBLA already track this, so why are you fools getting so upset over it?
Not only can I not worry about losing my shit, but I can log into Stardock or steam from anywhere and reinstall it on the fly?
Really, sometimes you people baffle me with your stupidity.
Bill Kutargi @ Mar 29th 2008 5:26PM
Tell that to John Doh, Mr Duncan...
Tell that to John Doh...
To John Doh...
Doh...
...
mundox @ Mar 29th 2008 5:26PM
PC gaming has always been the future ;)
Hashbrown_Hunter @ Mar 30th 2008 11:03AM
Yeah pretty much :D
Bill Kutargi @ Mar 29th 2008 5:28PM
...
DO'H!
I meant "Doe"
To propally read my above comment, replace all "Doh"'s with "Doe"'s
Thank you come again.
Phil @ Mar 29th 2008 5:30PM
Yeah, I'm calling bullshit too.
You guys are better than this. The better thing to do would've been IGNORE this guy and brush him off. Sure, one might call it karma if it does eventually end up like this, but let's be honest, console gaming is barely reaching it's 30-40th anniversary of being active.
There may be a few years where we see a halt, but it won't last forever. I see digital downloading being a progression but it's not going to wipe out gaming consoles. The need for the ease of being able to just have the device pre-made and pre-designed will be around forever, just like everything concerning pre-made stuff is still around.
Especially the PC and THAT is NOT a dedicated gaming console. THAT is a CUSTOMIZABLE gaming console.
People are lazy... And as long as a majority is lazy, the companies in the gaming industry will not hesitate to make it so they have a pre-designed experience set to what they want.
Alex @ Mar 29th 2008 7:26PM
Am I the only person in the world who actually LIKES physical media? I prefer to buy a CD over getting it on iTunes, renting discs instead of renting 7GB of data on my 360 and I also like to feel like I actually own a game rather than keep it on a hard drive (Theres always a risk of failure). Anyway, if I was going to spend £40 on a game, I'd want something to show for it. Hell, I feel ripped when I get a tiny little card for £25 on my DS.
Phil @ Mar 29th 2008 9:33PM
No, I like my hard copies too. But I like digital downloading too.
My friend got me a copy of Half-Life 2 for christmas in 2006 to celebrate my getting a new computer. One year later (About, more like 9 months) the thing crashed during my move.
Thanks to Steam and it's set up for me HAVING the games PERMANENTLY saved online, I don't have to hunt down a disc I might've lost during the move.
DLC and the like has it's pros and its cons but honestly, the pros outweight the cons. It's NICE to know if I ever lose my copies of WoW and TBC I can just redownload them via worldofwarcraft.com.
rockyman @ Mar 29th 2008 5:30PM
consoles are merely moving to a state where they will be part of the TV, as in the way your computer is to your monitor, No DVD Blu Ray, no Sattelite or cable box, just a console but it will be called a home entertainment suite instead, And computers will still be the same.
Also YoYo games is nothing they are blind to the reason why console failed in the first place, they churn out crap and even more crap their busines will expand than collapse in on itself, I don't see why they are so blind.
Zarim @ Mar 29th 2008 5:32PM
I duct-taped my PS3, 360, and Wii all to my PC to form a single mega media machine. I shall now commence fanboyism for my new device, the likes of which this world has never seen.
Zarim @ Mar 29th 2008 5:34PM
Ur box sux, mine can do EVERYTHING, even catch on fire.
Bill Kutargi @ Mar 29th 2008 5:35PM
My box is a circle...
:(
playwhutyalike @ Mar 29th 2008 6:18PM
If you don't have a Wii you could use 2 Gamecubes. Oh! I can't believe that hasn't been used yet.
Alex @ Mar 29th 2008 7:28PM
The PWii 360?
wootman @ Mar 30th 2008 12:30AM
the pwii60station3.
lvl99ultrathug @ Mar 30th 2008 1:28AM
The PSWii60PC?
shawn @ Mar 29th 2008 5:38PM
consoles will never die,that person needs to get there head out of there wazoo
The Sound @ Mar 29th 2008 5:44PM
Wasn't it someone related to the Xbox department who also said that Blu-ray would be obsolete in about 12-18ish months and digital downloads would take over en-mass?
Pfffffft.
Maybe M$ should hire people that are intelligent and actually understand what the majority of people want: Right now it's consoles, and physical media.
But, along with that, I can see the exact opposite here. You pay for the console, and you can have it become your satellite/cable box, multi-media center/gaming center etc.
In a nutshell: I think we should expect to see more systems like the PS3 (not fanboy in nature at all) that can stream/hold media, play games, go on the internet, accept tv feeds (PlayTV does this no?) become a DVR, Play/Download high definition movies, become your computer, etc.
Synner @ Mar 29th 2008 5:55PM
The 2 funniest things in your post:
"Maybe M$ should hire people that are intelligent and actually understand what the majority of people want"
"I think we should expect to see more systems like the PS3 (not fanboy in nature at all)"
Because Sony is so in tune with what people want they can't keep that PS3 in stoc--- oh wait for a second there I almost slipped into your dream world.
"M$" stopped being funny about 1500 internets ago.
Synner @ Mar 29th 2008 5:59PM
Actually after looking at your post history, I have to amend my former comment:
"(not fanboy in nature at all)"
is now the funniest thing in your post.
And for the record media center extender capability blows the pants off that shitty PS3 media streaming. Half the time my fucking PS3 decides in the middle of a video that it is an unplayable file.
The Sound @ Mar 29th 2008 6:08PM
I only used the PS3 as an example because it *has* the ability to do a lot of those things, whether or not it is done well.
I could've used the 360 as an example, because it can do the same thing, but the PS3 fits in better only because it has Blu-ray included, and it is the winning format after all. I know there's the HD-DVD add on, but what's the point in getting an add on for an 'all in one' kind of 'console'?
I wasn't using 'M$' to be funny. I've been so used to typing that, it's become second nature.
And how is my posting history have anything to do with this? I made a point saying that in the future we'll see more all around consoles that will do everything, including cable/satellite. I NEVER said 'omg teh ps tripple is teh bestest!11" I made a comment on what it is capable of doing (not matter how well it handles it), and that we'll see more systems like that in the future that is able to do basically everything and then some.
But I guess my post without mentioning the 360 makes me a fanboy.... *rolls eyes*
Synner @ Mar 30th 2008 12:56PM
no, I just glanced at your history and saw how you're all over sony's dick is all
cheese @ Mar 29th 2008 5:58PM
I agree that it more than likely will not happen. Microsoft can't make a good piece of hardware but that doesn't mean Sony and Nintendo should not make consoles.
hvnlysoldr @ Mar 29th 2008 6:07PM
The game industry is built upon the mass graveyard of dozen(s) of game consoles. Just saying there will be some sort of dedicated gaming platform.
Mr Khan @ Mar 29th 2008 6:16PM
2 Problems with this, though they pertain more to the American environment (which is the most robust console market)
1. Relatively few Americans have broadband, compared to say, Japan.
2. The broadband Americans have is relatively shitty
Five to 10 years? Never, especially as full-scale games require more and more space, and the big 3 become more and more concerned with smothering DRM to fight the pirates
Tranando @ Mar 29th 2008 6:20PM
I think we can take this as confirmation that it's the end of the road for Xbox. I mean why bother creating any further models, if they are heading for extinction????
Hyams @ Mar 29th 2008 6:57PM
FORMER Xbox Europe executive. Not current - former.
Tamachan87 @ Mar 29th 2008 6:24PM
Not going to happen for the same reason we still have DVD players. Most people aren't going to bother with digital distribution and not everyone has good internet connections (ie. UK).
From a personal viewpoint, nothing beats having stacks of games on your shelf, sharing games with friends or reading the manual of a newly bought game on the bus on the way home.
playwhutyalike @ Mar 29th 2008 6:26PM
Instead of going into a long winded opinion why I don't see it happening I'm just going to say, I don't see it happening. Not with consoles anyway.
Guess I'm just going to sit here and not give a fuck until 5-10 years from now.
vidGuy @ Mar 29th 2008 6:31PM
Not going to happen in the near-future. Each with their own successes this generation, Nintendo, Microsoft, and Sony will each create a new console for the 2011/2012-2015/2016 lifespan. That almost takes us out of Duncan's timeline prediction right there.
Digital distribution is very limited. The claim that we will be downloading all of our games is many years from being substantiated. We need faster data networks, especially in the last leg to the consumer. We also need smarter background downloading. Digital distribution is possible if the download is handled on a per level basis in the background, but not as a single download. Could you imagine dling a 10GB game now? What about a 50GB game in the next generation? It's possible but so cumbersome that no one will want to do it.
Set-top boxes and online gaming are getting more sophisticated but seriously lack any features that would pull consumers away from consoles. Might an all-in-one box take the place of a console? Sure, but its not likely given the competitive powers right now and their ability to control the gaming market.
It's possible, but I doubt any of us will be alive to see it happen if it did. More likely is the combination of a PC and a game console, which I could see MS doing next generation, especially as PCs continue to fall in price and grow in standardization.
bigd7387 @ Mar 29th 2008 6:40PM
3DO. The Console was to have multiple manufactures making the same hardware so that the consumer could buy a brand of their choice. Although not entirely the same, what is being stated by this person will not happen for many, many years. Not only is storage space a problem but bandwidth is an issue as well. Consoles will remain a fixture with their type of storage medium for well into the future and well past the time of my life.