Former Xbox Europe exec foresees the extinction of consoles

I've thought that this would someday happen. I'm pretty certain that XBLA, PSN store, and Wii Shop have pretty much been early stages of something bigger. Like they were running tests of exactly how many people would utilize the tech, and what they would buy.

Of course, the biggest obstacle I see to pure digital gaming is going to be bandwith limitations, both in terms of speed and amounts. With the focus being on doing away with net neutrality and a flat internet rate, and cable companies moving to charging overage fees for going over a predetermined amount of bandwith, I can see consumers running away from larger forms of digital distribution. In terms of speed, if media can't be delivered in minutes, or even seconds per GB, rather than hours; people will just go back to making a purchase of a physical copy.

Adding to this is DRM. Microsoft has tainted a lot of people's opinions of DRM with their whole Live Arcade game fiasco. If I buy something, it should be mine to do with as I please. I shouldn't be screwed for legitly transferring it to a new console. I shouldn't need to be online to play a game I paid for. Of course, if they go completely digital with content, then we'll pretty much have to have internet access to play or use anything. I'm not to sure if console makers are willing to take that step...yet. They would be leaving a lot of people without the ability to play at all.

It's kind of like this whole push for HDTV and digital broadcasting. They have both been around for almost a good 10 years now, but just over half of the population (in the USA at least) have either bought an HDTV or a digital set top box. I just bought an HDTV in January of this year myself. If it's taken almost 10 years for just half of potential buyers to hop on board for HDTV, how long do you think it'll take people to move to completely digital copies of everything?

I think there will be more resistance to digital copies of things, than there is to HDTV. At least with HDTV there are more pros than cons. With digital property, you don't have a phsyical copy, there will likely be DRM, you're limited in terms of hard drive space, etc..

I have a large collection of DVDs, and disk based games. I like having instant and physical access to my media. Given the track record for computer and console reliability for long term storage, I don't think I'd want a digital copy of my collection. How would I go about transferring it if I had a hardware failure? What about if I upgraded or replaced my hardware? What about if I decided I no longer wanted to subscribe to a streaming/cable provider's service? Would I still own my digital copies of what I bought? There are way too many complicated factors to digital ownership.

At least with music, I can burn that to a disk or my MP3 player, and given the small size of the files, I can recover/redownload them easily, should I encounter a hardware failure or change hardware storage devices. Will the same exist for these much larger formats? Future games certainly aren't going to be smaller in size.

Don't even get me started about reselling or transferring ownership. Gamestop would pretty much go under if all content went digital, and nobody had physical disks to sell back to them for pennies on the dollar. Not that that is a bad thing. Digital format will likely come one day, but probably not in the next 5-10 years like this guy is saying.

I think his timeline is to short, but sure there is a convergence happening. The PS3 is already being a blu-ray player and a media center in addition to a gaming system, and with PlayTV is also becomes a PVR. Big question is though when will Sony release a TV with a built in PS3.

Fools I'm probably twice most of your ages and you know physical media will die. It doesn't matter if YOU like physical media or not. People will go the way tech tells them to. There will be a system in place if you lose your hard drive and all the media on it or it wouldn't even work. Quit thinking that because it's a problem today it will be in 5 years. People fill photo sites with family memories and some probably wipe their flash cards after the fact. It will happen and you'll look like the old man wishing for knobs to turn on a TV.

Christabella: [Stabs Sandy Duncan] Blasphemer... He was a blasphemer.

No consoles? Nah! I think it will continue to flourish (consoles). Why? I like the fact that it's good for anywheres from 5-10 years depending on which company's console you buy. I've spent enough money to upgrade my computer that would have bought me like 10 PS3's already (exaggeration, but you get my point).

personally, i think the future is PC gaming vs a console.
think about it, the PC is incredibly well suited for digital distribution, online, and big games.
Microsoft also already has a major foothold.
with a standardized platform that all games for PC must conform to, it would be do amazingly.
then consoles would represent the other 1/2 that perfers
physical media and game pads, etc, and possibly wii like ventures.

my personal theory is Microsoft is going to make a standard pc platform which they control games for, and will be a PC.
sony and Nintendo will then merge, pitting the Japaneses vs American philosophy of game design head to head.

I'm an advocate of the "one console future," but even I can't envisage a world where a company like Nintendo can't just show up out of left field and sell a million systems in a day.

The problem with comments like these is that they assume that people want to do the same things with the same thing on a permanent basis.

People like change.

They're always looking for the "next big thing," and journalists are always looking for that "David vs. Goliath" headline.

Everyone needs to stop pretending they have the SLIGHTEST clue what's going to happen in the future. 10 years ago, not ONE analyst, journalist or forum poster could have predicted the Wii.

There's no telling what the future holds.

And really... Would we want it any other way?

If this does happen and say microsoft,sony and nintendo all put in and make one really power platform,I just hope microsoft doesn't have anything to do with manufacturing the actual hardware,I don't feel like getting anymore red rings of death with the next systeThey can all design it but let sony build the hardware.

I could see this happening in regards to casuals,But i sure as heck dont see it happening with real gamers and real consoles.

false

The guy is an idiot, consoles will never die. Otherwise PCs would have converged and a made a single standard ages ago. Yet we still have multiple processors, graphics cards and OSes, like we will always have a Nintendo/Sony/MS or even a Sega!!

This is so stupid... With the Wii Dominating in sales and the 360 with live I can't see that happening. You will have a problem with downloading, then downloading to what?? a PC?? And will you have to shell out mega bucks to make sure your PC can run the games??

It sounds stupid to me.. The one thing that worries me is a single console world.. Which I think EA is gunning for. Just imagine if the take over T2.. They will have enough exclusives to launch their own console. The will have a stranglehold on all sports. THIS is what I think is going to happen before the digital download stuff..


Take 2 don't sell... not to EA.

in the future kids will go outside

I bet this guy got fired from the xbox team for being a dumbass.

I really don't see this happening. Gamers who are used to the high fidelity graphics that dedicated game consoles provide are not going to be satisfied by games created for set-top boxes that weren't created with gaming performance in mind. Popcap games are fun and all, but they're not going to replace games like Call of Duty 4, Halo 3, or Uncharted any time soon.

I liked Sandy Duncan better when he was a woman with a glass eye who ate Wheat Thins and pretended to be a flying boy named "Peter Pan". I guess she rose from the grave to make predictions that cannot possibly come to pass in such a short time frame. Hey Sandy, why not predict that those digital download devices will also be installed in our hydrogen-fueled cars that drive themselves. Yes, it will all happen EVENTUALLY... Just not in 5 years.