Ben Schachter, analyst at UBS, tells investors that they shouldn't judge
Grand Theft Auto IV's success on total sales, but on the game's tie ratio. What Schachter means is that
GTA IV's success can't be compared to previous
GTA's raw sales numbers because there just aren't as many now-gen consoles in homes as there are (were) PS2s and Xboxen. He believes the game must be measured by the number of units sold divided by the number of consoles available to play it in consumer's homes.
Schachter postulates that if
GTA IV receives a Metacritic score above 95 that the tie ratio could hover around 30% of the available market, meaning US sales could eventually reach between 7-8 million units. He believes globally that sales could reach 10.5 million units by the end of this year. Schachter concludes that
GTA IV sales will meet or exceed expectations but the strong sales
won't protect Take-Two from the grasp of
Cthulhu EA.
_thumbnail.jpg "i am 8-bit: 2008")
(Page 1) Reader Comments
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I will not be surprised if -- err, when -- this is forgotten.
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"-achter"
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Wait....
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http://kotaku.com/380205/variety-gtaiv-launch-bigger-than-halo-3-and-then-some
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I'm sure people will buy PS3s and Xbox 360s because they want this game, and it'll be the only game they own for a while.
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At the unnamed big box retailer I work for part time, we're still selling PS3's simply as BluRay players. The typical young male gamer wants his 360.
they dont have a lot of cash (student loans to pay off, and they live places they can barely afford), and my buddies clearly know less about gaming, but they know what image they want to craft for themselves. the xbox has a better gaming experience, the ps3 is more about self-indulgence and self-image. and yeah, that stuff matters to the unwashed, mouth-breathing masses.
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Reeks of weak, cast closed. This game is gonna sell silly good.
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Stupid Cloverfield message boards...
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with that said, there is no way on earth that it will get lower than a 90% even if it does suck.
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Money is what rules in capitalism... and ea has a lot of money, they'll find a way to complete their evil deeds.
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I like games!
If there are not enough 360s and PS3s to support GTA IV, then it really suggests that the fanboys' favorite consoles aren't doing so well. Take-Two might have been better off releasing the game on the PS2 and Wii.
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It is true that they will sell less if there are less available consoles, however, many think this game will actually sell alot of consoles as some people are holding out for this.
Also, total games sold and tie ratio both factor into success. Investors expect the same result as last round(previous GTAs), but may see a change instead. Tie ratio is a good way of explaining that. And the game will keep selling well after it's launch, as another commenter said. So the tie ratio is something useful to R*'s investors, but certainly not to us.
Either way, a game sold is a game sold. Some games do continue well after their launch. For example, people who buy consoles for specific games, like the PS3 for MGS4, will probably want to try their hand at older games, and will not necessarily go for used copies. Not everyone is savvy to these things.
But in essence I see your point.
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