Analyst: Judge not GTA IV on sales, success is in tie ratio

by Alexander Sliwinski { Apr 15th 2008 at 11:00PM }

Ben Schachter, analyst at UBS, tells investors that they shouldn't judge Grand Theft Auto IV's success on total sales, but on the game's tie ratio. What Schachter means is that GTA IV's success can't be compared to previous GTA's raw sales numbers because there just aren't as many now-gen consoles in homes as there are (were) PS2s and Xboxen. He believes the game must be measured by the number of units sold divided by the number of consoles available to play it in consumer's homes.

Schachter postulates that if GTA IV receives a Metacritic score above 95 that the tie ratio could hover around 30% of the available market, meaning US sales could eventually reach between 7-8 million units. He believes globally that sales could reach 10.5 million units by the end of this year. Schachter concludes that GTA IV sales will meet or exceed expectations but the strong sales won't protect Take-Two from the grasp of ~~Cthulhu~~ EA.

Tags: grand-theft-auto-iv, gta-iv, gtaiv, Rockstar, tie-ratio

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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

Matt B @ Apr 15th 2008 11:04PM

I'm pretty sure R* cares about sales regardless of platform.

Lone Starr @ Apr 15th 2008 11:06PM

What he says makes sense but it goes directly against the philosophy of the fanboy.

I will not be surprised if -- err, when -- this is forgotten.

Donald @ Apr 15th 2008 11:13PM

*forgets*

Number Six @ Apr 15th 2008 11:11PM

The real point of this article? If your name ends with "-achter" you grow up to become a video-game-industry-analyst.

rv @ Apr 16th 2008 12:58AM

rv @ Apr 16th 2008 12:59AM

My question which somehow got cut off, was, whats the edit? Thats the same.

Number Six @ Apr 15th 2008 11:13PM

Stupid lack of an edit button!
*
"-achter"
*

Eh @ Apr 15th 2008 11:14PM

Screw all that, what matters is how many it sells period. Nobody cares about the percentage or ratio.

Donald @ Apr 15th 2008 11:15PM

Actually if Take-Two finds Earth they may be able to escape the cylons.

Wait....

ComradeTrotskii @ Apr 15th 2008 11:17PM

Investors would be better popping along and reading the Gamefaqs message boards for all the useful information that these 'analysts' give them. Heck people state obvious things and make up numbers all the time over there.

John McPoop @ Apr 15th 2008 11:33PM

This game will sell huge on both platforms ... Will probably break 10 million after the holiday season at the end of the year ...

tmacairjordan87 @ Apr 15th 2008 11:40PM

hell variety's already saying the launch is gonna be bigger than halo 3's, which even though it's multiplatform is still pretty goddamn impressive.

http://kotaku.com/380205/variety-gtaiv-launch-bigger-than-halo-3-and-then-some

vidGuy @ Apr 15th 2008 11:48PM

He's got a good point but I have a feeling that the tie-in is going to be higher than that, something on the lines of 40%. In time, GTAIV will pass San Andreas in sales.

Logic Bus @ Apr 15th 2008 11:59PM

Don't forget that this game will have legs. I got my PS2 *because* I wanted Grand Theft Auto III. But I didn't get either until almost a year after GTA3 released. I'm certain I wasn't the only person to make GTA3 his first PS2 game.

I'm sure people will buy PS3s and Xbox 360s because they want this game, and it'll be the only game they own for a while.

Carl Abrams @ Apr 16th 2008 8:15AM

Pretty close - on the PS3, it'll be because it's the only game WORTH owning. You pick up a 360 because of GTAIV, and you'll find lots of other games worth owning.

At the unnamed big box retailer I work for part time, we're still selling PS3's simply as BluRay players. The typical young male gamer wants his 360.

GRANTED @ Apr 16th 2008 9:02AM

every one of my young professional early-mid 20s guy friends talks about getting the hdtv-ps3 combo. no one drops loot on a 360 because it's viewed as childish. the ps3 is more of an investment in home entertainment. plus, when you bring a girl home, an xbox is a red flag; a ps3 is a "blu ray player".

they dont have a lot of cash (student loans to pay off, and they live places they can barely afford), and my buddies clearly know less about gaming, but they know what image they want to craft for themselves. the xbox has a better gaming experience, the ps3 is more about self-indulgence and self-image. and yeah, that stuff matters to the unwashed, mouth-breathing masses.

theturtle363 @ Apr 16th 2008 12:44AM

Cthulhu could have Take Two if it wanted. It would JUST WILL IT

Markez @ Apr 16th 2008 12:47AM

I think the story here moreso is "No-name Analyst Seeks to Make Story Where There Isn't one, Rides Coat-Tails of Large Game Release"

Reeks of weak, cast closed. This game is gonna sell silly good.

Seattle Yonkers @ Apr 16th 2008 1:19AM

Nothing can protect Take Two from the grip of CTHULHU!!

Stupid Cloverfield message boards...

colin @ Apr 16th 2008 2:38AM

I don't think GTA 4's metacritic avg will affect it's sales, unless its completely broken and gets a 30% for effort.

with that said, there is no way on earth that it will get lower than a 90% even if it does suck.

Deprincer @ Apr 16th 2008 3:03AM

EA? More like E-GAY! haha I'm so clever and offensive!

Ally @ Apr 16th 2008 4:52AM

Your mom!

mundox @ Apr 16th 2008 5:08AM

Most likely EA will assimilate R* even if GTA4 is the best sold game ever.

Money is what rules in capitalism... and ea has a lot of money, they'll find a way to complete their evil deeds.

Benny @ Apr 16th 2008 8:30AM

Fuck, it must be Obvious Day.

I like games!

Benny @ Apr 16th 2008 8:31AM

Reply unintended. That was a comment on the whole article. Sorry.

Evan @ Apr 16th 2008 9:38AM

Don't judge Grand Theft Auto IV's success on total sales? Take-Two makes money on total sales, not tie ratio!

If there are not enough 360s and PS3s to support GTA IV, then it really suggests that the fanboys' favorite consoles aren't doing so well. Take-Two might have been better off releasing the game on the PS2 and Wii.

Tim The Enchanter @ Apr 16th 2008 12:19PM

I see what you mean, but I disagree.

It is true that they will sell less if there are less available consoles, however, many think this game will actually sell alot of consoles as some people are holding out for this.

Also, total games sold and tie ratio both factor into success. Investors expect the same result as last round(previous GTAs), but may see a change instead. Tie ratio is a good way of explaining that. And the game will keep selling well after it's launch, as another commenter said. So the tie ratio is something useful to R*'s investors, but certainly not to us.

LaughingTarget @ Apr 16th 2008 4:08PM

Games typically don't sell well long after launch, so expecting future players to rush in and cover the extra profit isn't going to happen, especially since they'll be buying used versions or drastically discounted copies. From the standpoint of people who matter (shareholders, R* employees), tie ratio is pointless. GTA4 cost money to make and the goal of Take Two is to make money, not get tie ratios. There were some Virtual Boy games that had great tie ratios, but that didn't matter one bit.

Tim The Enchanter @ Apr 16th 2008 7:11PM

It matters when trying to show your investors why sales are not more than projected. I'm not saying investors need this, I'm saying it's important to those who appease the investors. Or try to.

Either way, a game sold is a game sold. Some games do continue well after their launch. For example, people who buy consoles for specific games, like the PS3 for MGS4, will probably want to try their hand at older games, and will not necessarily go for used copies. Not everyone is savvy to these things.

But in essence I see your point.