Analysts predict console war outcome, fanboys riot in streets
by Scott Jon Siegel 
{ May 30th 2008 at 2:00AM }
In terms of longevity, DFC believes that by 2012 the Playstation 3 will surpass the Wii in terms of software sales (no doubt assuming a staying power similar to the console's little brother, the PS2). They also predict that the slowed economy in North America will actually benefit video game sales, as high gas prices encourage consumers to stay home and play games, rather than going out. Several other interesting tidbits and predictions can be found in their full report.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
Wii60Warrior @ May 30th 2008 2:05AM
Dream on....
Wow its amazing what a rush you get when playing Online Multiplayer. The time just flies by and then you're done and realize just how exhausted you are...
I need sleep. Goodnite
NATO_Duke @ May 30th 2008 10:10AM
pkpk523 - very sound commentary on the "console war". Those who criticize your comments so far are simply short sighted in their view.
I don't think that it matters what console sells 1st vs. 3rd this time around. The sales for all of the consoles (and their software) have been a huge cash-cow for the companies concerned, and that won't change if someone's console sells more or less than another. The install bases are huge right now (combined around 57 million units). People who have 30 games in their 360 library won't dump it for a Wii just because of overall console unit sales, and software developers will continue to make games for that 19 million unit base. (Color it how you want – that is a lot of owners who need games to be made in the future. The same fact would be true with any brand console was substituted for the 360/Wii, so don’t get those panties in a bunch.)
So who would sell the most units in the end? Well, I would imagine the analysts are on the money here. Yet I just don't care. There is only one console you will play GoW2 on, no matter how much someone hates MS. If they want to play the game - they get that console. Likewise, there is only one that you will Play Mario on, and one to play something like God of War on. People will invest in the consoles with the games they like, and they will be fed those games for years to come I would think. Each console existing offers people choices that you should all be happy to have - instead many people here piss and moan about games they have never tried and systems they don't own because they think that will get them some victory in this delusional war. Pretty lame & kinda pathetic.
Ninjakamster (XBL: RNK2K) I miss you PS3! : ( @ May 30th 2008 11:11AM
Wii60Warriors (AKA: PremierAsshole): Ahhh, its 2 in the morning, time to check Joystiq for any POS3 news, negative of course which I can ejaculate over.
Ahh, I'm too tired right now, need to sleep. But first thing I wake up, to bash the POS3 and its fanboys on every PS3 related Joystiq news. Yay!
NATO_Duke @ May 30th 2008 11:19AM
WTF, my reply to the below post is up here! Damn it comment system - you got me again!!!!!!!!
Ninjakamster (PS360 FTW!) @ May 30th 2008 11:25AM
Yeah NATO_Duke, I was getting confused, thought maybe that Joystiq deleted some posts thats why your post was up there.
pkpk523 @ May 30th 2008 2:09AM
So yes, I'm sure this article will spur "fanboy riots". But is there really any need to go around predicting winners and losers? Whatever system or systems people have, gamers are going to enjoy them. If your console is the best selling or 3rd best selling, if you're enjoying its games, you should care less. I think the really interesting point is the idea that the Wii will be first but behind in software sales. Having had a Wii for a while before selling it back, I have to say it has been the most disappointing of the 3 "current gen" systems, the 360 the most current, the PS3 with the most potential. I'm sure we'll get posts about how the XBOX720 or whatever will already be out by 2012, but regardless, I for one would love to see a close race the next few years to keep each company "honest" about producing good product, especially Nintendo, who to me, is kind of mailing it in on the waves of it's popularity. Yes, I expect some downvoting for that last statemtn.
pkpk523 @ May 30th 2008 2:16AM
or "statement"
...also, anyone else sick of that friggin hummingbird???!!!!
looking forward to Ninja Gaiden II and MGS4 here real soon :)
Brett from Atlanta @ May 30th 2008 2:29AM
Upped you. I completely agree. I have also sold my Wii back. It was fun for a while and rarely got use unless someone who hadn't played one came over. After going through all the good first party titles and with the online component of games like Brawl unable to keep the Nintendo experience fresh, I just decided I would trade it in and buy some games for my PS3. That, and it looked like garbage on my hdtv. Besides, it's not like another game like galaxy will be coming out for it this generation, they've already gone through metroid, a plethora of mario games, and zelda. I'm pretty sure we wont see other iterations of those franchises til their next console. I wonder how many others have sold theirs back like we have? But, enough about the Wii, I think that the PS3 has potential as well. I am enjoying mine more and more everyday. Its kind of reminiscent of the feelings I had for my PS2, which I ended up loving. The 360 is still strong and will continue to be so for a while, but IMO, Microsoft's first party isn't as strong as Sony's and that will be why the PS3 eventually overtakes it. I think that if Sony can get an online community and several other features that live has up and running (in game XMB, you hear me you bastards!), it will make their transition back into a spot of dominance easier. So, I have to agree with the post and your statements overall. I'm just wondering if the nintendo prediction is correct. Could there be others like myself who are beginning to feel that it is in fact the "gimmick" that we swore it wasn't? I could be just my age (college student), but even my nine year old sister doesn't play hers anymore. In fact, the only people I know that still religiously play their Wii like I used to are my friends' parents that are retired and have nothing better to do. I think that if some one "hot item" comes along that appeals to people their age, it could really hurt the sales and the demand for the Wii. These are just a few thoughts I had. Cliff notes coming soon lol.
chez @ May 30th 2008 2:35AM
I haven't sold mine... Still have to 100% Galaxy and even sit down properly for Metroid.
Not as if any other console is going to have a game as good as Galaxy this gen. I'm not the kind of person to sell something amazing because I need to play something rubbish.
el serpiente @ May 30th 2008 3:08AM
lol, chez is upset. I bet even you are tired of your kiddie box, but the cognitive dissonance of you dumping it off at the game shop would make your head explode. So, please, enjoy playing galaxy over and over for the next several years.
pkpk523 @ May 30th 2008 3:17AM
@chez
well i guess that's kind of my point. everyone has different tastes, so it's pointless to be worrying about which system is in first or second. each system has its quality games at this point. i got through galaxy, but i certainly wouldn't say "no console this generation is going to be as good as Galaxy". In fact, I thought is was so-so and had no real urge to play it after getting through it the first time. but that's me, while you and hundreds (thousands?) of others would think me crazy. But the fact that I got more out a $10 Pixel Junk Monsters game than out of Galaxy shouldn't bother you, and the fact that you love Galaxy while I think it was about a 7.5 or 8 doesn't bother me. that's the point of my post. if the Wii outsells the other systems by 10 units or by 10million units, as long as I have games I enjoy on my systems, I'm fine with it. I get no pride out of having a system I own being tops in sales. All that matters to me is I enjoy my system(s) and their games. Now if quality suffers from lack of competition, that's a different story, and that's something I worry about with the Wii, but till then, stories like this on Joystiq are purely for fanboys.
chez @ May 30th 2008 4:38AM
El serpent-thing's comments no longer matter since he wished death upon another Joystiq user.
pkpk523- exactly. When I say "I like this" or "I like that" it's all just personal opinion. I don't get why some users get so angry at that.
Jtenma @ May 30th 2008 5:46AM
To Mr. pkpk523...I understand what you are saying...but I think you are forgetting one key point.To the average gamer, yeah, you would be right about not caring which system sells more. BUT, to US...the site surfers (the ones who study gaming) it DOES matter. It better... Why? Because (and I think you are not the only one who forgets this):Bigger install base= more support/more profit for devs=better/more games!All those games you are happy with on a system of choice comes from a market that exists. But if a market isn't there for a particular game, why make them?So you see it does (sadly), in a way, matter my friend...just look at the ps2.
deadpool @ May 30th 2008 8:54AM
@JTenma
Large install base =/= Better games
Have you not seen the games on Wii? When there is no competition you end up with a pleothera of shitty stocking fillers. Why would any developer bother making a great game for 2 years when other developers are churning out 5 or 6 games in that time and making more money? Competition is what fuels good games. Pressure and funding from system manufacturers give developers that competitive edge to make their games better. In a short two or three years there has been an abundance of great games for both the 360 and PS3, not so much for the Wii.
animeman_59 @ May 30th 2008 10:13AM
I love my 360.
There I've said it, now let the fanboys burn me at the stake.
I'm at a crossroads right now about what system to buy next. PS3 or Wii. A year ago I would've told you Wii, but now it seems I'm gravitating more towards PS3. I'm guessing it's because I've played all the great games for Wii at my friend's place, but I always feel like I've played these games before, especially Brawl and Mario Kart (Prime 3 and Zelda are just as gulty). I still like Galaxy, but I'm not going to buy a system just for one game. I bought the 360 when I knew at least 4 games that I would buy right off the bat for the system. This fall, that might be the case for PS3, but I don't see anything for the Wii that makes me excited. It's kinda sad. Hopefully, this changes quick.
Jacksons @ May 30th 2008 10:20AM
@pkpk
Well, you're already at the max ranking, but you're getting a +1 anyway.
Shakhak @ May 30th 2008 11:27AM
Believe it or not there IS reason to analyze the future sales potential of a product.
It is not for gaming news. It's not for fanboys. It's not for anyone on this webpage really. The fact that some here may be interested in it does not mean the analysis was done for us.
It's done for stock holders, the people that are financially interested in the companies and the outcomes of their products.
Using reports such as this allows the stock holders to decide if they want to do things like hold on to their Sony Shares since they may eventually come out ahead. Or dump off their x360 shares because the current success won't last long.
Let's all try to look outside of our boxes please.
Korova @ May 30th 2008 1:00PM
also publishers will take projected install bases into account when deciding whether to develop or port a game for a particular system.
gamerprophet @ May 30th 2008 2:11AM
They are fucking idiots if they think Sony will beat MS. 360 has the highest attach rate and will continue to have the highest attach rate. All Sony will have it an over priced blu-ray player.
iofthestorm @ May 30th 2008 2:15AM
I don't like or want a PS3, but it's actually a cheap blu-ray player, and if I had an HDTV I might be more interested in a PS3. The PS3 is starting to pick up momentum so I wouldn't say it's impossible for the PS3 to pass the 360 eventually, although currently I would estimate that 360 will still be on top for at least the next two years or so, if not longer. I think at this point it's pretty obvious the Wii is going to have the most consoles sold this generation, but #2 is totally up in the air really.
And in the end, it doesn't matter which console sells the most, just play the one that has the games you want. I enjoy PC gaming a lot and feel that 360 and PS3 are similar but inferior to PC, and Wii is actually different and I enjoy the traditional polish of Nintendo franchises, overdone though some may call them.
Lekko @ May 30th 2008 2:19AM
That is.. unless you consider bluray movies an attachment product.
Then you have a completely different story.
gamerprophet @ May 30th 2008 2:23AM
Blu-Ray is all PS3 is good for, it turns out buggy games and shitty multi-player.
JerJerBinks @ May 30th 2008 2:48AM
Have you ever actually given any thought as to why the attach rates are higher, or do you just spew bile and fallacy? Seriously, is it possibly to stop with the fanboy doosh act for 5 minutes around here.
The 360 has a whole year on the market ahead of the Wii and PS3, of course the attach rate is going to be higher. Whats truly surprising is ... why doesn't the 360 have a larger lead on the PS3 given its year head start?
Korova @ May 30th 2008 8:05AM
JerJer, generally attach rates decrease with age of product (its a per console thing), so 360 attach rate lead is even more remarkable. It means 360 gamers are "hardcore".
As for PS3 beating 360, its possible if:
1. people start buing it for BD player once analog TV is turned off in 2009 and people start buying HDTV in droves
2. It price drops around the same time
3. Home has a better interface than Live (which is not that difficult to achieve). I actually cant stand Live interface. Its like MS has never seen iTunes.
MS has serious trouble marketing their products. Aside from Halo, its all really campy.
Superstar90 @ May 30th 2008 8:56AM
@Korova
Analog TV's not working has nothing to do with HDTV's. All it means is that all signals will become digital and everyone will need to buy a simple digital converter box. (Even though most stores will lie to their customers about having to buy an HDTV)
Also, that is only happening in the US...
Alex @ Jun 1st 2008 2:16PM
Underpriced Blu-ray player.
Standalone players are about £500. The PS3 id about £280-399.
Drago Dracini @ May 30th 2008 2:13AM
Wow. I mean, yes, the Wii is great. But first place? Not a chance. Look at all the shovelware... Once they start bringing us steady REAL titles I'll maybe get more convinced... The last good game I played was No More Heroes and SSBB. And no, I refuse to play Mario Kart. Mario Kart is only good on SNES and N64. Not any other console. As for the 360, I can see it coming in third. I mean, I LOVE the 360. I really do. But I can see it coming in third. And the PS3... well, depending how it does in the next few years, it does have the chance to reach first... *waiting for my used 20GB to get to me from Gamestop*
Slayer @ May 30th 2008 2:16AM
Well, the Wii has been on top for a long time now. I doubt thats going to change. They're obviously doing something right.
voodoomage @ May 30th 2008 2:30AM
not a chance...hah... Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it...
Joe P @ May 30th 2008 2:13AM
As the adage goes: It doesn't matter if you win or lose, it's how you play the game.
Who cares who "wins" in the end? If you enjoy the system, buy it. Simple as that.
Nando @ May 30th 2008 2:14AM
Actually, ps2 is ps3's OLDER brother.
bobdole @ May 30th 2008 2:33AM
"(no doubt assuming a staying power similar to the console's little brother, the PS2)"
They actualy did say little brother, not older brother. Which is true...have you seen the size of the PS3??? I use it only as a Blu ray player and it's quite a pain to lug back and forth between my room and the living room.
But as an owner of all three I would have to say the 360 is by far the best in my eyes. Cross platform games are usually better (although the graphics edge is slowing recently compared to PS3) but LIVE and achievements will always give them the edge to me. Wii is fun for when I have people over, but outside of that it rarely gets used. I've had my PS3 for close to a year now and I have yet to buy a game for it. Ratchet and Clank was fun. Played Resistance with a friend co-op over a weekend. It was entertaining but nothing to write home about. I do want to try Drake someday. Then there's Haze...I don't think it matters that it's an exclusive after those reviews...
I think the 360 deserves to beat out the PS3 this generation. Other than the hardware issues (yes, I am onto my third console now) I have no complaints on the 360. I REALLY don't like that if I do ever get a PS3 game that I have to go out and pay for "last gen" technology if I want a rumble. I think that since it's a downgrade in Sony's eyes that they should let me trade in my non-rumble controllers straight up....
ScallionN @ May 30th 2008 2:18AM
Delicious Flat Chest Intelligence?
Is it a think thank that supports flat-chested women and the people who love them? If so, I'm all over that.
toohightocomply @ May 30th 2008 2:43AM
To compare Intel invests over 60% of its revenue back into Marketing! Think for yourselves, question authority!
Anticrawl @ May 30th 2008 2:24AM
Hrm, yeah I can see PS3 getting the most units in 2012, when they are still trying to support that console and a new generation of Nintendo and Microsoft consoles are already out. Wii, then 360 then PS3. So it has been and so it shall remain.
chez @ May 30th 2008 2:25AM
Hmm, hmm, hmm see the Wii is clearly going to come first. Now it's just a fight for 2nd place for the other 2.
Personally I see the PS3 in 2nd and 360 in 3rd but with mighty close numbers. Just as GC and Xbox were last gen.
gamerprophet @ May 30th 2008 2:25AM
Sony's attach rate sucks worse then Nintendo's and that's what determines the winner.
Shagittarius @ May 30th 2008 11:28AM
Even with Wii Sports and Wii Play and all the other included with hardware software that is counted towards attach rate the Wii has a lower attach rate than the PS3.
Mr Khan @ May 30th 2008 2:42PM
No, it doesn't. Wii's attach rate is higher, and would be about dead even without the titles that people keep saying shouldn't be counted
DangerMouse @ May 30th 2008 2:30AM
Go-Go Gadget Umbrella!
Mr.ESC @ May 30th 2008 12:03PM
Don't you mean go go gadget flame shield?
Thinking about it an Umbrella is better than a flame shield in case of sh*t storms.
DangerMouse @ May 30th 2008 1:55PM
Bingo!
born2kill @ May 30th 2008 2:33AM
As any Saturn and Dreamcast owner (bought mines at launch) will tell you,Sony is a beast and until anyone breaks 100 million consoles, theyown the industry. Nintendo will making a jillion dollars on theirfirst party stuff alone, but sony will still outsell them inhardware, software, and will profit more off the 3rd party licensing.Thats how they roll.
chez @ May 30th 2008 2:40AM
that's how they roll? What does that mean?
Anyways it's been almost 2 years now and the Wii is constantly been outselling the PS3 in all regions, in some major regions (UK, US) its in dead last. Please don't come along being this level of positive. Just say "I'd like the PS3 to come first" but don't outright say something as false as what you did.
born2kill @ May 30th 2008 3:01AM
Theres nothing false about what I said. Sony is the monolith of gaming. They took the last two generations handily. Until MS or Nintendo breaks 100 million units, then i'm not going to believe they even have a chance. If you bought a Saturn or Dreamcast back in the day, you'd know that you can never underestimate them. Theres a reason why they moved 127 million PS2s, and it wasnt luck and it wasnt gimmicks. They know what theyre doing, they know its a marathon and the 3rd party licensing are what made them #1; its how they roll.
John @ May 30th 2008 4:07AM
Yeah, they moved that many PS2s thanks to GTA and being a cheap DVD player.
GTA4 was a multiplat game and the numbers show consumers don't give 2 shits about HD movie formats.
deadpool @ May 30th 2008 8:59AM
Sony will win, because that's just the way they roll man.
Vegeta (aka Ska Oreo) @ May 30th 2008 1:59PM
"Sony is the monolith of gaming"
Since when? You could make that claim during the ps2 era, but now? Hardly. Let's see: In the US, both the 360 and the Wii are beating the ps3 in both hardware and software sales, and in Japan while the ps3 is beating the 360(though a 3 year old could have told you that) it's completely laughable how much sony manages to sell compared to Nintendo. The only place Sony is really doing exceptionally well in(though yeah it isn't doing that bad in the states) is Europe.
The problem with you born is that you're not looking at this realistically at all and all your proof is is just saying, "WELL THE PS2 BROKE 100MILLION AND BEAT OUT EVERYONE SO SOMEHOW THE PS3 WILL DO THE SAME AS WELL!!" Looking at what's going on currently, I doubt that will happen.
Gun Barrier (=Gamer Tag) SSBB: 3952-6696-7009 @ May 30th 2008 2:05PM
maybe u should wait for ps3 to break 10 mill first.
born2kill @ May 30th 2008 3:18PM
AGAIN Sony is the master of 3rd party lincensing.
Nintendo Wii has had their success almost exclusively off their first party stuff, which are only a dozen products or so. Brawl and Mario Kart are not going to move 100 million wii units, trust me.... Nintendo doesnt look like its going to be changing its attitude much towards 3rd party developers, so I can't expect them to be a contender to win this generation.
MS is doing much better w/ third parties than the last gen, which is helped alot w/ them buying exclusives. However they are still far from reaching the wide audience that Sony has, as evidenced by Japan not giving a dam about either Xboxs. MS is doing great so far but still a ways to go before they can appeal to as wide an audience as they need to move 100 million.
And finally theres Sony who've mastered the 3rd party lincesing game long ago. They know which developers are going to pick them up and which buttons they need to press to get REAL gamers interested in their stuff. Whether you love them or hate them, if youre a true gamer then sooner or later Sony is going to get you to bite, and when you do the third party system will work its magic.