This year's Game Critics Awards for E3 honored Fallout 3 with "Best of Show," but will that translate into sales when the game actually releases? Well, chances are, sales of the game will probably have very little to do with the title receiving the E3 award; however, according to analyst Ben Schachter of UBS, the "Best of Show" does typically go on to see an average of 2.42 million units in sales within the US.
Schachter notes that every software winner over nine years has gone on to see over a million units sold (except for 2000's Jet Grind Radio). He also points out that each of the winners was either a first-party game or a console exclusive*.
*Don't get nitpicky, we're way ahead of those nerdsploding and furiously typing that MGS came to the GameCube six years later.
Reader Comments (19)
Posted: Aug 7th 2008 6:22AM Korova Pamplona said
So critics hit the mark eight out of nine times?
Winning should definitely help reduce the publicity budget necessary to get to a million, increasing profit.
Winning should definitely help reduce the publicity budget necessary to get to a million, increasing profit.
Posted: Aug 7th 2008 7:07AM AngelusInsomnus said
Jet Grind Radio's relatively poor sales make me very sad.
Posted: Aug 7th 2008 3:15PM BananaBoat said
I bought a copy for the dreamcast AND the Xbox. I've been holding out hope for years that a sequel would eventually come, but I'm starting to think it's never going to happen. I don't even know who holds the rights to the IP anymore.
Probably one of the most underrated games of all time. It's a shame, because it gave me hours upon hours of enjoyment. Given the terrible sales, I doubt it will even make it to XBLA =/
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Probably one of the most underrated games of all time. It's a shame, because it gave me hours upon hours of enjoyment. Given the terrible sales, I doubt it will even make it to XBLA =/
Posted: Aug 7th 2008 7:10AM (Unverified) said
Well when you consider Jet was a DC exclusive, that explains why it flopped in comparison to the rest.
I like the fact that the first party/exclusive thing has been shattered though. Good old Fallout 3 :D
I like the fact that the first party/exclusive thing has been shattered though. Good old Fallout 3 :D
Posted: Aug 7th 2008 8:07AM borland502 said
Not shattered entirely, but it certainly has become less frequent. "Timed Exclusives" & "Exclusives, but then we realized that there is another viable platform" are a lot more frequent now. Certainly, Fallout 3 is a welcome sight for arriving simultaneously. Though the new DLC pissing contest frontier is unwelcome.
It's nice that gamers aren't as boned if they take the road less traveled in a generation.
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It's nice that gamers aren't as boned if they take the road less traveled in a generation.
Posted: Aug 7th 2008 8:12AM chantastic said
It's disappointing that the two best games on the list (MGS2, JGR) had two of the lowest sales numbers.
Posted: Aug 7th 2008 9:16AM darkinchworm said
Well, 2 million isn't anything to complain about in the gaming industry, so I wouldn't fret over that much. Jet Grind Radio's 294,000, though? That's a damn shame.
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Posted: Aug 7th 2008 9:06AM KaneRobot said
Man, JSR deserved so much better.
Posted: Aug 7th 2008 9:15AM (Unverified) said
HA! Halo 2 only sold 6,541 copies. That's less than PSYCHONAUTS! Take that Halo fanboys!
Posted: Aug 7th 2008 11:32AM (Unverified) said
That's because Psychonauts beats the living crap out of Halo.
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Posted: Aug 7th 2008 12:30PM (Unverified) said
Yeah, you would think NPD would know how to make a proper chart.
I mean, they are "National" for god's sake.
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I mean, they are "National" for god's sake.
Posted: Aug 7th 2008 9:47AM The Punisher said
I love Halo 2 and JSR
Posted: Aug 7th 2008 10:22AM (Unverified) said
I'm disappointed that more people haven't purchased Mass Effect according to this chart. I really hope that EA makes Mass Effect multiplatform so more people can experience it, and so Bioware can get their money's worth. Yes, I'd love to play it on PS3, but I think Bioware deserves the money. They have an excellent track record.
Posted: Aug 7th 2008 1:33PM (Unverified) said
Yep, Mass Effect is a really good game. One of my favourite RPGs of all time.
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Posted: Aug 7th 2008 12:04PM Mr Khan said
Fallout 3 will make it. It won't be a huge title, on the level of some of these other ones, but it'll hit at least a million on 360 alone
Posted: Aug 7th 2008 12:07PM Vcize said
Are these numbers only for the year they were released or something? Gears is listed as 2.8m, but aren't its actual sales closer to 5m?
Posted: Aug 7th 2008 4:48PM (Unverified) said
1) That chart is in thousands. Whoever made it forgot to note that fact. Thus 6,541 x 1,000 - 6,541,000. That how many copies of Halo were sold.
2) The average lifetime units sold is wildly inncaurate because of the outlier that is Halo 2 and Jet Grind Radio
If you remove H2 from the counting the average number of titles sold drops to 1,909,375.
If you remove JGR, the number increases to 2,690,250.
If one removes both JGR and H2, the average units sold is 2,190,143.
The last number would be the most accurate as it eliminates influential results that will skew the average units sold.
woo statistics!
2) The average lifetime units sold is wildly inncaurate because of the outlier that is Halo 2 and Jet Grind Radio
If you remove H2 from the counting the average number of titles sold drops to 1,909,375.
If you remove JGR, the number increases to 2,690,250.
If one removes both JGR and H2, the average units sold is 2,190,143.
The last number would be the most accurate as it eliminates influential results that will skew the average units sold.
woo statistics!
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