Congratulations! You're now a part of history ... or at least, a part of Alex St. John's alternate reality. Spend enough time with "the guy who talked Microsoft into the console business" and you might start seeing a big red countdown -- the kind that ends in KA-BOOM! -- tattooed on your gaming console, the UK's Telegraph reports. "I think we're looking at the last generation of consoles. There's not going to be an Xbox 720 or a PS4, I'll make that bet, not going to happen," St. John predicts.
Not surprisingly, St. John's grim prophecy doubles as a convincing plug for WildTangent's forthcoming virtual console: Orb. Orb will offer "enthusiast" games (BioShock and Assassin's Creed are two "possible" examples) for free on an ad-driven, session-by-session basis. In theory, this kind of digital platform could one day replace disc-based consoles, as it offers "free" gaming through an advertising model that consumers have accepted in other markets and cuts out the huge economic losses that console manufacturers can't seem to avoid (um, except for Nintendo!). "I'll take the heat if I'm wrong and don't mind being mocked in the future with people going 'Wow, was he wrong,'" St. John says of his market forecast, "But it doesn't happen to me very often."
Reader Comments (80)
Posted: Aug 18th 2008 7:25PM WiredKnight said
With a virtual console, where is the pixel-pushing power going to come from? Surely they aren't talking about streaming the entire game's input/output...so either you'll be saying "these games look terrible on Orb," or you'll be saying "Wow, was he wrong."
Posted: Aug 18th 2008 7:27PM Trojan said
Well, I'm convinced. ;)
Posted: Aug 18th 2008 7:32PM cesaria said
Cha, right! And monkeys might fly outta my butt!
Posted: Aug 18th 2008 7:39PM NotZura said
The end of consoles?
No.
The end of consoles for a while?
Yes.
I don't expect us to see XBOX Next or Playstation Next for at LEAST five years ( i honestly would not be surprised if it were seven to ten years ).
Why? Because we have reach a graphical stalemate (for the most part). Now I know some may say "Have you seen or played Crysis?" Yes I have and I ask you: "Have you seen or played MGS4?" How much more real can we make things look (Heavy Rain anyone?) right now?
Until the big three find ways to go way above and beyond what they can do on our massively powered consoles we won't see any for awhile. This is my opinion say what you will....
No.
The end of consoles for a while?
Yes.
I don't expect us to see XBOX Next or Playstation Next for at LEAST five years ( i honestly would not be surprised if it were seven to ten years ).
Why? Because we have reach a graphical stalemate (for the most part). Now I know some may say "Have you seen or played Crysis?" Yes I have and I ask you: "Have you seen or played MGS4?" How much more real can we make things look (Heavy Rain anyone?) right now?
Until the big three find ways to go way above and beyond what they can do on our massively powered consoles we won't see any for awhile. This is my opinion say what you will....
Posted: Aug 18th 2008 10:43PM philmcfail said
LOL CONGRATS on not using using the term "XBOX 720"!
Reply
Posted: Aug 18th 2008 11:56PM (Unverified) said
Won't be that hard to get a better graphics card in the next-gen systems. Doesn't the PS3 only have something along the lines of a 7800GS?
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Posted: Aug 18th 2008 8:07PM Zorink said
Is he an idiot or an irl troll?
Posted: Aug 18th 2008 8:14PM juju187 said
just like paper currency would never die (only if credit cards had there way) when we "BUY" something we like to you know actually posses it...
Posted: Aug 18th 2008 8:26PM (Unverified) said
It would help if credit cards are a good alternative to paper money. I'd take you more seriously if you suggested debit cards instead.
Reply
Posted: Aug 18th 2008 8:20PM (Unverified) said
He might be correct is he adds "as we know it".
Foreseeable stuff:
a) Major crossplatform interaction. Microsoft is already in progress with this with it's Live Anywhere initiative. PS2 and N64 (and Dreamcast) technically had this in minor amounts with their portable counterparts. The next generation of PSX will likely either have a major link to the PSP, or a phone/PSP hybrid. Not to mention all the other Sony products out there. Nintendo would still likely stay niche and game-focused, though an XNA-like initiative is probably likely.
b) Delievery of Software: Though unlikely to go fully online (since games will still get larger to make that non-cost effective), I'd think patches and/or upgrades/add-ons will become the norm.
c) User Content: Though this is lacking in most areas (other than PC), I'd think this is likely to grow exponentially. Home and Little Big Planet would begin the process on PS3 side, and the next iteration of Animal Crossing on Nintendo, though there has been progress with certain DS and Wii titles. Don't know enough of current or future 360 games to comment on that side.
d) Online Push: Most games will begin to have some form of online content, even if it's just a scoreboard and forum. Technically this is beginning this generation, but it would become the norm in the next.
Foreseeable stuff:
a) Major crossplatform interaction. Microsoft is already in progress with this with it's Live Anywhere initiative. PS2 and N64 (and Dreamcast) technically had this in minor amounts with their portable counterparts. The next generation of PSX will likely either have a major link to the PSP, or a phone/PSP hybrid. Not to mention all the other Sony products out there. Nintendo would still likely stay niche and game-focused, though an XNA-like initiative is probably likely.
b) Delievery of Software: Though unlikely to go fully online (since games will still get larger to make that non-cost effective), I'd think patches and/or upgrades/add-ons will become the norm.
c) User Content: Though this is lacking in most areas (other than PC), I'd think this is likely to grow exponentially. Home and Little Big Planet would begin the process on PS3 side, and the next iteration of Animal Crossing on Nintendo, though there has been progress with certain DS and Wii titles. Don't know enough of current or future 360 games to comment on that side.
d) Online Push: Most games will begin to have some form of online content, even if it's just a scoreboard and forum. Technically this is beginning this generation, but it would become the norm in the next.
Posted: Aug 18th 2008 8:30PM MarkezJM said
My argument would be that by and large, 99% of gamers (wholly undocumented #, but I feel, perhaps accurate?) could absolutely care less about user created content. Even those who play a lot of games with user created content, a la Boom Blox, etc, could absolutely, utterly, care less. I'm exaggerating obviuosly, but think I'm pretty much spot on. Not that I wholly disagree with you, just saying.
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Posted: Aug 18th 2008 8:45PM (Unverified) said
It's not whether user cares, but whether developers care.
a) User content means the developer spends less on content. Just as multiplayer means developer spends less on AI programming.
b) All you need is a few dedicated users to create enough content for everyone else. You don't need everyone creating content, though you may need someone to check content (for bugs). It's the same reason why people are still playing Warcraft 3/DOTA: 1 single group continuously creates/updates user content.
Reply
a) User content means the developer spends less on content. Just as multiplayer means developer spends less on AI programming.
b) All you need is a few dedicated users to create enough content for everyone else. You don't need everyone creating content, though you may need someone to check content (for bugs). It's the same reason why people are still playing Warcraft 3/DOTA: 1 single group continuously creates/updates user content.
Posted: Aug 18th 2008 8:23PM arkweld said
He's absolutely right about this generation of consoles being the last.
At the end of Sony's 10 year life cycle we'll be teleporting home from work and walking directly into our holosuite.
And when people aren't doing that they'll all be watching American Idol in holovision and voting telepathically on their iBrain.
And maybe we'll have Web 9.0 by then too.
At the end of Sony's 10 year life cycle we'll be teleporting home from work and walking directly into our holosuite.
And when people aren't doing that they'll all be watching American Idol in holovision and voting telepathically on their iBrain.
And maybe we'll have Web 9.0 by then too.
Posted: Aug 18th 2008 9:27PM hotpuck6 said
someone should let the R&D departments know, cause they were working on the next gen of consoles before the current gen was even shipped.
Posted: Aug 18th 2008 10:51PM ChomskyKnows said
it got a couple of orbs for this guy right here....in my pants...
Posted: Aug 18th 2008 10:58PM ChomskyKnows said
anyone with "St" in their name is a pretentious blowhard.
Posted: Aug 19th 2008 12:04AM (Unverified) said
this story is well over a year old and he writes for CPU magazine, he actually has very good articles. This guy was also one of the main peeps responsible for Direct X when he worked for MS, the guy is far from an idiot, but as usual, Joystiq is missing the point. St. John was advocating a set top box or PC that is uniform that runs programs from the "cloud" (internets), therefore bypassing all the hardware reqs and loss needed to sell a console. Makes sense in a way, but I don't see it happening yet, but certainly down the road. Basically, selling consoles for a loss and paying for exclusives are going to end due to the costs of developing getting higher and higher, as one of the causes for all of this. There are many others that agree on these points.
Posted: Aug 19th 2008 2:37AM 4ham said
I can hear it now when xbox 720 and PS4 are announced. "They're not consoles anymore, they're multimedia home theater PCs! So I was totally right!"
Posted: Aug 19th 2008 4:36AM BurntMeatloaf said
At first I thought he might be talking only about the end of the traditional console business model. Then, I saw his comment about no PS4 or XBox720.
Given how badly WildTangent burned, it's amazing that anyone can stay in business blowing such tripe.
Given how badly WildTangent burned, it's amazing that anyone can stay in business blowing such tripe.
Posted: Aug 19th 2008 5:57AM (Unverified) said
I got to speak to Alex St. John about the issue when he made the comment at Casual Connect Seattle last month. He really is dead on with most things. In fact he commented on the financial issues of GameTap before it came to head last week.
I think he is right about the end of most cosole gaming in the idea of how games are bought, but I can see one more gaming console coming out, very later than sooner than the time it was from the Xbox to Xbox 360 flip. I think Microsoft and others want more use out of the systems this generation than last gens.
I think he is right about the end of most cosole gaming in the idea of how games are bought, but I can see one more gaming console coming out, very later than sooner than the time it was from the Xbox to Xbox 360 flip. I think Microsoft and others want more use out of the systems this generation than last gens.
Posted: Aug 19th 2008 7:32AM (Unverified) said
Frankly I love the business model.. i love having games on tap to download as and when i feel like it.
But gametap does it much better.. and they haven't been hugely successful financially.
I'm happy with lower prices and microtransactions though.
Given the success of Live, PSN, Wiiware, VC, I'd imagine that in a few years all games will be much much shorter, and much much cheaper... putting them in line with movies, books and music as possible impulse purchases.
I sure hope so anyway...
But gametap does it much better.. and they haven't been hugely successful financially.
I'm happy with lower prices and microtransactions though.
Given the success of Live, PSN, Wiiware, VC, I'd imagine that in a few years all games will be much much shorter, and much much cheaper... putting them in line with movies, books and music as possible impulse purchases.
I sure hope so anyway...
Posted: Aug 19th 2008 7:50AM (Unverified) said
alex St. john ... this guy's software has been on the must-remove list forever. After a decade of listening to him and looking over his wares, Orb is going straight into the must-delete list. sorry Alex, your reputation preceeds you.
Posted: Sep 4th 2008 10:26PM (Unverified) said
Who knows what might happen, when nintendo makes wii 2 it might end up beating EVERYTHING!
http://www.squidoo.com/doughboy
http://www.squidoo.com/doughboy
Posted: Aug 19th 2008 8:45AM (Unverified) said
Ohhhh man, I was just waiting for this moron to pop up somewhere with some idiotic bable, so I could trash him. "The guy who talked MS to go console" I would hardly believe that. I used to laugh at this over weight bag of wind back in the day of boot magazine (now MaximumPC). Not only is this guy so high on himself, he is the biggest sell out in the gaming world. Wildtangent is the only evidence you will need.
"The last of the gaming console generation" I would bet money that he will come out with some retraction with "What I meant is...". Fortunately, very few have to live in his reality. The reason I despise this gomer, is that he talked down on MS all the time, even right before he quit MS, and then started WT and became the very thing he used to bash in his own articles. Its a shame with you look at all of what he has done and look at what he could of accomplished. Now he is just a sad excuse of an owner of a failed platform.
"The last of the gaming console generation" I would bet money that he will come out with some retraction with "What I meant is...". Fortunately, very few have to live in his reality. The reason I despise this gomer, is that he talked down on MS all the time, even right before he quit MS, and then started WT and became the very thing he used to bash in his own articles. Its a shame with you look at all of what he has done and look at what he could of accomplished. Now he is just a sad excuse of an owner of a failed platform.
Posted: Aug 19th 2008 1:05PM jumpshot said
Alex, Wiii will prove you wrong.
Posted: Aug 26th 2008 6:04PM TheShaper said
"I'll take the heat if I'm wrong and don't mind being mocked in the future(...)"
I'll take that he doesn't mind being mocked regardless of time...
I'll take that he doesn't mind being mocked regardless of time...
Posted: Aug 26th 2008 8:20PM (Unverified) said
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