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Reader Comments (128)

Posted: Sep 11th 2008 9:37PM (Unverified) said

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Whatever Patcher predicts, assume the opposite.
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 10:04PM (Unverified) said

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Don't just assume.

BANK on it.
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 10:34PM (Unverified) said

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seriously, how frequently can this guy be wrong and still be the go-to analyst for the games industry? I'd really hate to think what he gets paid to make what appear to be fairly poor guesses about this business.
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 2:28AM OMGOMG said

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A little sports reference here, but you can say the same for Dr. Z, the football "expert" for Sports Illustrated. For example, he picked the Saints to beat the Chargers in the Super Bowl last year.

Every field has its expert that sucks. It still continues to baffle the mind how they still have jobs, though.
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 9:12AM 007craft said

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I wish I had patchers job. I get paid big money to make guess and it does not matter if im right or wrong, I still get to keep my job. Sounds like the easiest job in the world.

Maybe his payroll keeps hima round because they always do the opposite of what he says, and that makes them money?
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 9:38PM NightElve said

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Dear God! SONY is doomed !!!
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 12:06PM (Unverified) said

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Actually Microsoft are doomed.

They sold 840 Xboxes in Japan last week (1/10th the number os PS3s). Europe 360 sales are stagnant, Woolworths are having a fire sale to get rid of them (remember Woolworths HD DVD firesale?????)

Developers are telling us there is no more capability in Xbox, and what you see now, is what you will continue to see for the rest of it's life.

Even in the US, 360 is not looking very smart, it's still the FPS console, that fails to attract mainstream consumers. (the Singstar and Buzz! rip-offs on 360 are unlikely to change that perception anytime soon).

Microsoft and their army of brainwashed mouthpieces have tried to convince people that 360 is great and PS3 is a turd, but it's clearly not working, as a last ditch hope, as massive fire-sale of the remaining faulty Xboxes, before the Jaspers arrive, might just convince people they arn't really selling sh1te...
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 1:24PM arrrgh said

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actually dig dug, take a walk, you'll fit right in @ n4g
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 9:38PM Vegeta has a ps3 said

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Still shock that Wii play is up there. Also, Dyak must be laughing at everyone.
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 9:52PM (Unverified) said

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(in your best yoda voice) Never underestimate the power of the Jack Lalane Stepper.

$90 balance board...BARGAIN
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 10:00PM (Unverified) said

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"Wii play"
"balance board"

Fail harder, Killjebus.
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 1:30AM BPMOmega XBL PSN Steam said

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Never underestimate the power of a $10 game bundled with a Wii Remote.

Oddly enough, with my collection of 20+ Wii games, I still don't own Wii Play.

Also, I think the numbers on the chart are wrong. It lists Wii Fit and Wii Play selling the exact same amount. Which I'm guessing is a typo, because Wii Play is listed BELOW Mario Kart Wii, which sold less than Wii Fit.
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 7:14AM BananaBoat said

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Only Dyack knows whether or not 168k is a good number. Judging from what I know from past titles, 168k is probably nowhere near where Dyack probably predicted, and it's probably on the extremely low side, considering the game took years to complete at what I assume is an extremely high cost. If anything, Neogaf and 1up are probably laughing at Dyack right now.

If I seem smug, it's because my "100k sales on day one, no more than 1 million during it's lifetime" prediction seems to be coming true.

Also...how the motherf**k do you sell 400 THOUSAND copies of a digital scale with included balance games? Holy crap....just think of all the profits...and it could probably sell more if it weren't sold out.....wow....it really does print money.
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 9:42PM The1 said

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I remember when the PS2/Sony ruled the Madden series.
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 10:01PM (Unverified) said

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Look close, Sony still does.
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 1:24AM severian00 said

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I would hardly call 1 million to 1.06 million (on 2 systems) ruling
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 1:35AM BPMOmega XBL PSN Steam said

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Through the combined efforts of two systems, though. How many PS3 owners do you think would rather purchase the PS2 version? Very few, if any.
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 9:58AM jhowlett said

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if this were a debate a few weeks back about the dominating psp a few poster would chime in on how much wii and ds have combined for second and third. they might then go on to say it was along time away from lifetime sales numbers.
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 9:43PM Evan Tribley said

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I am really interested to see what happens next month with the price cuts.
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 6:49AM Hyams said

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We can try and work it out if you like. =)

Assumption 1) In the second week of September, the 360 will sell twice as much as it did in the final week of August, as reported by Microsoft.

Assumption 2) Most sales came in the first three weeks of August, as the announcement of the price drop would have convicned many to hold off until the price cut comes into effect.

Fact 1) The price cut did not come into effect until the end of week 1 of September.

Assumption 3) Sales will get the biggest boost in week 2, with a decline in weeks 3 and four 4.

Assumption 4) Week 1 will get low sales at first, and then a burst at the end. Sales similiar to week 3, perhaps?



The 360 has 195k sales. I'll round this is up to 200: for simplicity. Split evenly between all four weeks, we get 50k. But as I think the final week of August was quite slow, I'm putting it at closer to 35k (so it sold 55k in the other three weeks).

Double 55k is 110k for Week 2.

I'm lowering that to around 90k for Weeks 1 and 3 each.

And lowering it again to 85k for week 4.

110k + 90k + 90k + 85k = 375k.

That puts it below the Wii, but firmly above the PS3.

Of course, that's based on lots of assumptions and gessed at numbers, so it's nothing more than a rough estimate. Still, I'll be surprised if it doesn't get something *similiar* to that.
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 8:18AM xGeneral DEATHxDEETH82 said

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Hyams:

You've thought about this too much. :p
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 11:31AM (Unverified) said

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+1 for xGen Deathx!!!!

:)
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 11:36AM Hyams said

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I need a girlfriend...
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 4:03PM (Unverified) said

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hymas: do you have a life outside of being a " logical " ps3 fanboy you call yourself.

i like how you said the ps3 has been selling more than the 360, then i guess you read this article...
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 4:29PM Hyams said

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I actually have a pretty active social life during term time, but during the holidays I do nothing but play videogames, chat on the internet, and work. (Yes, I do realise I do it backwards.)

I'm looking forwards to going back to Uni next week.
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 8:48PM (Unverified) said

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HYMAS:
typical college brat living off parents money to make comments like you have made such as " logical" fanboy... lol
that doesnt even make any sense.
if you had to work for anything that would be what you do most.
enjoy your parents money, just dont try to act smart, because there is much to life than the books and internet you seem to read too much.
u overthink too much i can tell and only read 3 of your posts.
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 9:46PM Mr Khan said

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Wii version did better than it did last year

And it is surprising that Too Human pulled top 10 numbers.
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 9:49PM (Unverified) said

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"and this was before last week's price cuts"

Not really. I was seeing "clearance sales" all over the place for the 20GB Premium model, many places are still trying to get rid of it. Hell, Halo edition was going for less than $200.

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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 1:47AM BPMOmega XBL PSN Steam said

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There's a difference between "discount" and "price cut."

Microsoft and retailers are trying to get rid of the 20GB Pro to make room for the 60GB Pro. And the Halo one is, well... puke green.

The other three models are still in production, and are permanently cheaper than before.
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 1:04PM (Unverified) said

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where were these sales? because most major retailers (best buy, target, gamestop) change prices uniformly at all their locations, don't they?
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 9:49PM (Unverified) said

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Nearly 20% drops for PS3 and Wii! I'm no fan of the Arcade 360, but I wonder what a month at $199 will do for those numbers?
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 10:01PM severian00 said

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Now that the hype over MGS4 has subsided and the 80GB bundle is close to being discontinued I foresee this trend continuing until Sony comes out with some new bundle. I'm looking forward to a LittleBigPlanet bundle myself. Hopefully they'll bring it stateside with a backwards compatible model.
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 10:08PM (Unverified) said

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uncharted bundle out soon with 120 Gb HDD ... maybe a socom bundle?
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 10:08PM (Unverified) said

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Probably a shit load....Especially since You could get the Arcade and a used hard drive for $260 bux.....Save 40 Bux son.....I'm all for it
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 10:09PM (Unverified) said

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How much will the 120 GB be?
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 10:36PM (Unverified) said

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@ExMcloud

My friend got a used 120GB for $100 at gamestop,
but they are selling the 20GB for $50 is a good deal if you're buying a 360Arcade.
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 10:46PM (Unverified) said

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its actually 160 GB console for $499

here are the details

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6196293.html?sid=6196293
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 11:30PM samfish said

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360 won't beat the Wii in September even if it keeps up the pace MS said in the press release today. Going by these numbers and assuming they hold relatively stable for September, 360 might sell about 390,000 units next month.

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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 11:06AM (Unverified) said

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Keep hoping. Sony has officially killed the BC models forever. If you didn't get an 80GB MGS4 bundle, you're out of luck. Trust me on this.
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 9:59PM Ranus Studios said

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Madden lawl.
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 9:59PM (Unverified) said

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WHO IS STILL BUYING WII PLAY??????

I mean come on people it's not a good game! Stop encouraging Nintendo!
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 10:01PM Vegeta has a ps3 said

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It's called free Wiimote.
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 10:03PM (Unverified) said

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Wii Play w/remote Key word is remote

People aren't buying wii play, they are buying the controller that includes wii play.
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 10:05PM Mr Khan said

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Since i pre-ordered an extra wiimote from the beginning, i never had to go through the hell that many went through in the ensuing months. That being said; i never saw the value of WiiPlay, but having played it, those minigames aren't without charm

Its much more of a "tech demo" than Wii Sports is, though.
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 9:15AM 007craft said

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yeah where I live, the wii play bundle is constantly going on sale, for $10 less then a stand alone wiimote. This means that wii play the game costs -$10. My brother bought 3 wiiplays for his wii. All the discs went in the garbage lol. I have no clue why yhty count wii play as a piece of software.
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 10:27AM Duke said

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Yup, I bought it when it came out for the wiimote.
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 10:02PM (Unverified) said

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Looking at how well the Ps3 is doing in Japan and how close the Ps3 is in over here. It looks like it is picking up speed ahead of the other game console.
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Posted: Sep 11th 2008 10:52PM Saucepanman said

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I thought the PS3 was doing pretty mediocre in Japan? Only like 10k a week?
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 2:03AM (Unverified) said

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I am talking about the actual two consoles, the 360 and the Ps3. Not that...Gimmick...So anyway...Seeing the about the 10,000 with ps3 over in JP and this...

...And am not very sure how to round those numbers with Japan and the US, but it is picking up quite a bit.
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Posted: Sep 12th 2008 6:53AM Hyams said

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Yeah, sales are poor in Japan. It's just that the 360 is doing even worse.

PS3 and 360 gap is slowly closing world wide. It's been reduce by a good 2 million this year.

The question is: what's going to happen in the Christmas period?

My guess is going to be a draw between the PS3 and 360, like last year. If that's the case, it's going to take the PS3 a *very* long time to catch up.
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