Analysts predict holiday sales stinkers

by Justin McElroy { Nov 23rd 2008 at 5:00PM }

Now, for a much grimmer look at holiday sales, we turn to Gamasutra, which asked analysts to predict the games that, far from just missing the top spot, would tank altogether. Among the foretold flops were Need for Speed Undercover, Banjo-Kazooie: Nuts & Bolts, Spider-Man: Web of Shadows and Midnight Club: Los Angeles, all of which analysts say could fall well below expectations. As with all analyst predictions, we remind you that these are just that: predictions, that should be taken with the appropriate amount of NaCl.

We'd also like to add Predatory Lending Tycoon to the list of flopossibilities, though we suspect that Imagine Hoboz and Discarded Trash Can Scrap Cooking Mama could be surprise hits.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)

Wiinterfang @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:05PM

Poor Banjo.

Markez @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:13PM

It's something of a new animal, genre-wise, that I don't think it'll get any sort of mass appeal, especially with 0 advertising.

NFS I expect will do well based solely off brand name recognition. Personally, I really wish they'd produce an old school NFS, like the Hot Pursuit one I used to have on my gamecube.

On a side note, analysts suck.

Markez @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:14PM

PS - pay me. 1, for my analyst prediction, and 2, for the consulting side-job I just did there for product road-mapping.

Dirty @ Nov 24th 2008 10:00AM

Ive seen a lot of Banjo adds.

profeteer @ Nov 24th 2008 11:21AM

It is sad.

The game is only $40, I got BK free, and I'm having a blast with it. The challenges get little repetitive, but building up your parts inventory and creating vehicles is so much fun.

Courtney @ Nov 24th 2008 12:02PM

Banjo might yet get a purchase from me. I'm looking for more coop titles for my xmas list.

offday @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:11PM

Good thing I don't care about any of those games.

Trulz @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:44PM

Why would it matter if you did?

snarfoogle @ Nov 23rd 2008 6:28PM

@Trulz

Maybe because games that don't sell well don't generally get sequels?

Arnon @ Nov 23rd 2008 10:03PM

That's an incredibly stupid thing to say rofl.. pretty sure that

Too Human
Mirror's Edge
Dead Space
Little Big Planet
Resistance 2
etc.

didn't sell well.. You think they're not going to make sequels?

The Aggie CEO @ Nov 24th 2008 7:05AM

@Arnon: they will all hit 1-1.5 million sold each by the end of the year....

and some will go on to sell 4-5 million(LBP)

tmacairjordan87 @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:14PM

Traded in Banjo today. In a way I'm hoping it flops so Rare never tries anything so stupid like this again, but there were times when I was kinda having fun.

Vidikron @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:17PM

No way... it's an awesome game. I know you can't please everyone and not every seems to "get" this one, but I'll defend N&B to the end. It's 100% as good as the previous Banjo games. Wait, scratch that, it's better than Tooie... which kind of sucked.

tmacairjordan87 @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:18PM

I never played tooie but I dislike nuts and bolts enough to say it's likely worse than that.

Vidikron @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:21PM

Looking beyond your desire for a traditional Mario-clone platformer, what is it specifically that you don't like about N&B? I think it works perfectly as they intended. The vehicle creation system is deep and there are a thousand ways to complete most missions. The graphics are absolutely gorgeous and the music is good. I just don't get what isn't clicking with some people beyond a simple stubborn refusal to want anything than the Mario clone the previous games were.

tmacairjordan87 @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:33PM

I didn't like the way the vehicles handled. Even the "good" ones handled really bad.

I didn't like how every mission was timed in some way or another. I also didn't like the actual missions, but the biggest reason why is pretty much listed above.

That doesn't sound like much, but those 2 issues pretty much makes up the entire game.

Moptimus Slime @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:40PM

knowing tmac, there probably weren't enough guns to shoot or corpses to teabag

Vidikron @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:44PM

Well, the vehicles I'll disagree with almost completely. The only complaint I have about them is that they tend to get hung up on object a bit too easily sometimes. But almost without fail, a poorly controlling veichle is your fault. Either you're not using the right kind of wheels, placing the wheels poorly, have poor weight distribution, poor body shape, etc... all that matters. The game is all about designing the proper vehicle for the job. I've had numerous vehicles that controlled like crap that then controlled great after some tweaks.

And did you ever bother watching any of the replays off the leaderboard? This game richly rewards thinking far outside the box. Almost every time I hit the leaderboards for tips on speeding my completion of a mission I'm impressed with the ingenuity of the leaders. And the best part about the replays is you can hit "Y" to download the blueprint of the vehicle they used. A phenomenal feature that I have a feeling most people are completely missing and one that wouldn't have been fully realized in the demo.

I guess the timed missions is more pf a preference. Normally I too am annoyed by timed missions, but I haven't been bother by them in this game because they aren't scrict at all. Finishing is almost always easy unless you made a shitty vehicle. Finishing fast enough to get the jiggy it fairly easy in most cases. Getting the TT trophy can be tricky at times, but one trip the leaderboard generally fixes that pretty quick. In the end, it all come down to having the right tool (vehicle) for the job. You determine your own fate, which is what I love about this game.

giantenemycrab @ Nov 23rd 2008 6:00PM

Nuts and Bolts seems to be a love it or hate it type of game and the reviews certainly reflect this. It's gotten plenty of 9s and plenty of 6s. It's got one 5/5 and one 6.0. I personally love this game and agree more with the higher scores.

Zertoss @ Nov 23rd 2008 6:02PM

N&B is great, and it's refreshing to see a developer try something different. Especially if it helps to avoid getting stuck in a Mega Man rut.

To be fair, though, the Mega Man rut didn't start to get old until well into the X series. Or when the first cutscene played in Mega Man 8, if you're the type to let some of the worst voice acting in history ruin a game for you.

Also, I don't like Vidikron's method of solving the missions. Peeking on the leaderboard is like cheating in my book. I prefer to dominate the challenges with my own intellect and imagination.

Wiinterfang @ Nov 23rd 2008 6:04PM

It's a Platformer without platforming and just when I Though this was gonna be the year of the plaftorms Mirrors Edge,Banjo Nuts & Bolts,Sonic Unleashed and Little Big Planet all were disappointments.

Jacksons @ Nov 23rd 2008 6:15PM

@Zertoss

Yeah, Mega Man was pretty dire for a while. But after playing Powered Up and Maverick Hunter on the PSP, then Mega Man 9, I'm back on board.

tmacairjordan87 @ Nov 23rd 2008 6:16PM

It's not "my fault" that the physics and vehicle handling system Rare put in is extremely flawed. I made well over 30 vehicles and tinkered with many of the existing vehicles to suit my needs better and tested each one before saving it. As good as I got some to run there was still always a problem in one way or another, because their system is broken.

Also, when I put a huge box on a vehicle, why does everything always end up flying out the back of it? It even happens when the item I'm putting in the box is much smaller and doesn't look like it would fly out. Just another extremely frustrating aspect of that disappointing game.

Mr Khan @ Nov 23rd 2008 6:56PM

As an advocate of platformers i have to be kinda mad at N&B, no matter how well or how poorly it did its job, they basically killed off a platformer in the process

Bagels @ Nov 23rd 2008 11:52PM

@ Wiinterfang

You little troll! On the "I coulda been a contendeh" lBP Post You said that you liked Sonic unleashed and that it was better than LBP. I disagreed with you and got voted down. Can I ask what it is about those listed games (besides sonic, obviously) is a big disappointment, or are you just adversley opposed to fun?

Evan @ Nov 24th 2008 8:35AM

N&B seems to be the result of a mash up of business-decisions: "Sandbox games are popular now, make it a sandbox game.", "Sony announced a user-created content game at GDC, we need a user-created content game too." The result is a game that has a lot of elements implemented poorly.

Vidikron @ Nov 24th 2008 10:30AM

"It's not "my fault" that the physics and vehicle handling system Rare put in is extremely flawed. "

First off, the game isn't trying to be Forza. So, no, there physics aren't perferct nor should thgere be any sort of expectation that they would be. They're definitely on the arcade side of the scale, which is quite fine for this type of game. And, yes, it most certainly is your fault if your vehicle controls poorly (95% of the time anyway). In no way can you convince me otherwise when I have dozens that control fine.

For example, did you ever properly test the weight distribiution of your vehicles? I take my vehicles and place the balloons on the top of the vehicle with even spacing. I then go to the test track and inflate them. If the vehicle lifts off the ground in a lopsided manner then the weight isn't properly distributed. I do the same thing for vehicles that can go in the water. I put them on the water and look see if they sit level or not. I then go back to redistribute parts if necessary. I'm telling you, you can make vehicles that control great, but Ihave a feeling most people are just slapping vehicles together and then crying when they don't work right. The system is deeper than that.

"Also, when I put a huge box on a vehicle, why does everything always end up flying out the back of it?"

LOL... come on now. First off, I rarely have trouble with smaller items flying out, but then again MY vehicles control fine. About the only time I have to watch out is when I'm flying and making turns in the air. Yes, larger items will sometimes fly out, but did it ever occur to you to just build up the sides of the box??? I mean, damn, it's not rocket science here. I have a fair number of "trucks" and "pushers" with fairly large walls built up to hold items inside, or in front in case of the pushing vehicles. And, of course, when building up the sides it's generally best to use lightweight parts to keep the vehicles from getting top heavy.

Sorry, but this really all seems so simple to me and I'm still completely baffled why so many people just don't get it.

tmacairjordan87 @ Nov 24th 2008 10:34AM

Yes yes I eventually did build more walls on the sides, my point was why should I have to do that? I put stuff in a pickup truck all the time and it doesn't go flying over the walls, so why does it magically do that in here? It's broken that's why.

Vidikron @ Nov 24th 2008 10:47AM

I don't know, because the stuff is light? Most of the objects in the game are light in comparison to their size. Again, you're expecting things in the BK world to behave exactly as they would in the real world. While weight distribution and such do matter, it's still a cartoon world where planes take off in 10 feet instead of half a mile and Banjo can shove large objects around while on foot. Light objects, expecially large ones, tend to fly around at high speeds. One trick you can do if you're dealing with multiple objects in your truck is to use the suck/blow device. Put one at the base of the box and use the suction ad you drive around. This helps keep multiple items in place. Especially handy when using puching vehicles on missions where you have to push multiple objects around at once.

So, again, I don't have trouble with that stuff. At least not enough to keep me from scoring TT trophies on any of the missions. I mean, I'm not saying I never lose anything I'm carrying, but there are 100 ways to get the job done. It's just not been a problem for me.

Titanium_Orchid @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:19PM

My top five holiday sales stinkers for the current console gen, in no particular order, for games that the joystiq community will be remotely interested in.

1. Dead Space
2. Tomb Raider
3. That 007 game
4. Mushroom Men
5. Rise of the Argonauts
6. Those Baja games

Other stinkers:
Garfield Gets Real
Nancy Drew: The White Wolf
Shaun White's Snowboarding

Also, I think Banjo will do well. Considering the cartoon vibe and $40 price point.

JoeTheBlow @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:23PM

Actually, Banjo never even made the top 40, and games rarely rise in the chart.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=342539

Titanium_Orchid @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:28PM

oh, and Valkyria Chronicles. Which is a shame, because its a good game.

Haggard @ Nov 23rd 2008 6:08PM

Didn't Dead Space do pretty well?

Haggard @ Nov 23rd 2008 6:09PM

^ Ignore that

Obie @ Nov 23rd 2008 7:44PM

I really enjoyed Dead Space. And I thought I read somewhere that it did decent business, esp since it was a triple platform release.

Titanium_Orchid @ Nov 23rd 2008 8:12PM

I don't know how well Dead Space did overall.

I'm just speculating on how games will sell between now and x-mas.

If I had to guess though, I would say between 200-300K across all platforms up to now.

@JoeTheBlow

Does that link you gave have any sales numbers attached to it? Also, any news as to worldwide sales?

Geist @ Nov 24th 2008 1:24AM

Actually, the Nancy Drew games make ridiculous profit because they're so damn cheap to make. It's...unfortunate.

samfish @ Nov 24th 2008 1:39AM

"4. Mushroom Men"

If by Joystiq community, you mean me, then I guess you're right...because I think I'm the only person 'round these parts who's excited for Mushroom Men!

...sad that it probably will indeed flop, though :\

Titanium_Orchid @ Nov 24th 2008 1:55AM

Damn you nancy drew! Can't say that I'm very supprised though.

t_m @ Nov 24th 2008 6:00AM

The nancy drew games also usually get really good scores. I can't think of many other franchises that can pump out a bestselling game about once a year (how many are they up to now, 10?) and regularly score in the 75%-90%

I'd be willing to be no one here has ever played one, but any impartial observer would have to rank them up there with some of gaming's great franchises.

sam @ Nov 24th 2008 6:14AM

@tm: Actually, the range for Nancy Drew metacritic (PC) is 68-85. not 70-90. That's still a very respectable range though, and most of the games are right on 80. I'm not sure they are necessarily being reviewed to the same criteria as 'hardcore' games, though - or are they? I have no idea....

I've never played one but I'd be up for it if the reviews are decent on the Wii version. (Same game scored 73 on PC, so not one of the better ones, but not one of the worst either.) Used to read Nancy Drew books when I was a kid so could be a bit of nostalgia potential. :)

@list: I don't see how Mushroom Men can be a 'disappointment' if nobody expects it to be a massive seller - I mean it's hardly a brand name. Presumably if it sells moderately that will be good enough.

Ridgecity @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:20PM

Hopefully, Little Big Planet will sell well, since it's great.

JoeTheBlow @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:20PM

Mirrors Edge charted at no.30 too, and will only go down, and Dead Space hasn't done great.

So next year it'll be back to the EA of old, cranking out casual shite and sequels of sequels.
:-(

Popfrogs @ Nov 24th 2008 1:41AM

Dead Space probably didn't do very well because it was released on PC too soon.

Note to devs: if you're selling a game for consoles AND pc, please release it a few months later on PC. Otherwise people will just warez the hell out of it and not get it for their consoles.

Haggard @ Nov 24th 2008 2:50AM

Because all console gamers have killer PCs, as frequently demonstrated on this site..

Lavat @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:22PM

I did say before Banjo Nuts and Bolts was nothing special...And I am backed by professional analysts on that.

Vidikron @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:24PM

Ummm... you're backed by about 1/3 of "professional" reviewers that gave the game absurdly low scores For the most part it has very good review scores. It's clearly a love it/hate it game. That happens sometimes.

Lavat @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:32PM

Not just the Professional reviewers. But the actual analysts to.

Vidikron @ Nov 23rd 2008 5:47PM

What does that have to do with anything? They're just predicting which games will underperform sales wise. Plenty of great games have sold poorly and plenty of bad ones have topped the charts. Your argument fails completely if you're trying to use sales figures as a reliable metric for the quality of a game.

Lavat @ Nov 23rd 2008 6:51PM

Sales figures do have weight and mirror what happens in a mass objective appeal. But yea, the analysts just looked at the reviewers and said that it will tank. But it is not a 'good' game that does not have a great overall score. That is good enough for me (Who hates this game) to say it sucks. And so...I laugh at the 79% percent on Metacritic because truly...It was nothing special this year and it is certainly not having a shot at game of the year.

It would done better if it just serviced the fans and not have stupid innovations to make it look like just another platform game trying.

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