Report: 'Guitar Hero reaching its peak'

by James Ransom-Wiley { Dec 8th 2008 at 4:56PM }

See what happens when you play too much Guitar Hero? You don't need Joystiq to tell you that the game -- heck, the entire genre has reached its peak! But how about a professional analyst?

Bullet point numero six on Electronic Entertainment Design and Research's "November 2008 Retail Sales Preview" report says it all: "Guitar Hero reaching its peak." The firm predicts a sales decline greater than 50 percent series-over-series (from Guitar Hero 3 to World Tour) this month, following a decline of 60 percent in October. "It is pretty clear that the series has already reached its peak among the mass-market audience," reflected EEDAR director of analyst services Jesse Divnich, who, in a separate correspondence, was quick to add, "I don't believe this is the end to Guitar Hero or Rock Band. They are the premium brands in the genre and even if the genre experiences some exhaustion, Guitar Hero and Rock Band are here to stay." EEDAR expects the two franchises to continue to spawn for the next 10 years.

Divnich told Joystiq that EEDAR anticipates declining sales in the entire "Music & Rhythm" genre. It's the classic iPod dilemma -- too much music! With an estimated 120 percent increase in Music & Rhythm SKUs released this holiday (compared to last), the firm is predicting an overall sales decline of 10 percent. In turn, the genre will become less appealing to developers, suggested Divnich, driving away competition. Guitar Hero and Rock Band may be yesterday's acts, but they'll still be headlining tomorrow's onslaught.

Tags: eedar, guitar-hero, rock-band

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

J @ Dec 8th 2008 5:03PM

A prize for anyone who can guess how many toxins are in this man's body......

Capain Trips @ Dec 8th 2008 5:18PM

Not nearly as many that are in mine :)

edgore @ Dec 8th 2008 5:29PM

Ah, good one sir. Trick question - nothing is toxic to Keith Richards. He can only be killed by severing the head.

JoeTheBlow @ Dec 9th 2008 5:10AM

"Keith, we can't do anymore drugs because you already fuckin did them all! Theres none left. We have to wait until you die, then smoke your ashes!"

/Leary

BrokenBycicle @ Dec 8th 2008 5:05PM

I really wanted to love GH:WT but I felt so underwhelmed by it. There wasn't one big issue with it but so many small ones which eventually added up and ended with me selling the game after about two weeks. And that's even though I didn't have any hardware issue since I only played the guitar and sang in the game. I'd still consider buying GH5 but they would have to do loads of tweaks to it.

CTC XBL-supapaypamawio PSN-ctclaw @ Dec 8th 2008 5:22PM

The way the song list is set up is just horrible. Whenever I play with friends I pop it in for a couple songs, and then it's Rock Band the rest of the night.

Mr Khan @ Dec 8th 2008 5:07PM

Now's the time to try to stick it to Harmonix with dlc, and not try to flood the market with "band versions" and "track packs"

why not the LS2LS7? @ Dec 8th 2008 5:11PM

I think he's dead right about GH. It's passed its prime, but that's partly because of the quality level dropping off.

Rock Band is likely stagnating too, but I expect it to stay almost level (at least on unit game sales, not counting instrument sales) for some time.

Activision will be spreading these stagnated sales across more and more SKUs, they plan to triple their number of rhythm games in a single year.

343 Guilty Fart @ Dec 8th 2008 5:12PM

Too many guitar games? This analyst clearly hasn't played Rock Revolution!

Haggard @ Dec 8th 2008 5:30PM

Nor has anyone else for that matter

Wiinterfang @ Dec 8th 2008 5:57PM

Rocka whatnow?

Soulcrux42 @ Dec 8th 2008 5:13PM

What needs to happen is for Guitar Hero to release these band titles as DLC. Just have one rockband, one GH and just release band packs for maybe 20 dollars and keep the continous content for Rockband.

Roto13 @ Dec 8th 2008 7:36PM

After actually playing Guitar Hero: Aerosmith, it makes sense to release it as its own game. It's not just Aerosmith songs, it's a biography.

But it should have been cheaper.

Dirty @ Dec 8th 2008 5:15PM

Time to release the accordion peripheral to jazz things up.

shannon @ Dec 8th 2008 5:27PM

I might almost be inclined to actually be interested in one of these rhythm based games if that actually happened. granted, it would only be because of it's ridiculousness... 5 minutes later i'd get back to my murder simulations... gotta stay practiced.

Haon @ Dec 8th 2008 5:28PM

Sweet. Then Ill be able to play my favorite madvillain track
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpaonSDPw7Y&feature=related

jorojoserojas @ Dec 8th 2008 5:31PM

If you want to jazz it up, wouldn't a saxophone be more appropriate?

JoeTheBlow @ Dec 9th 2008 5:56AM

It should at least do better than Sousaphone Hero:
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/activision_reports_sluggish_sales

oolz @ Dec 8th 2008 5:15PM

exactly, this is just a convenient way of saying "our products aren't as good as they should be".

I think the whole genre is going to start tapering off, but that doesn't mean there isn't a strong market for them. They're just going to have to keep adding new features and not relying on band names to carry their products.

jajaes @ Dec 8th 2008 5:20PM

(Think alcohol anonymous)

Im a Delaystation 3 fanboy and i like to play alone

Bagels PSN:WolfLogic @ Dec 8th 2008 5:26PM

This is true and I've been thinking it for a while. There are two main reasons, the first being song selection. While good music continues to be put in to these games, it can't happen forever. We'll go from the exclamations of the first games:"Hey, they have so and so in here? Awesome!" To: "So, are there any good (for some this means recognizable) songs on here?"

The second reason being that you can only revolutionize and refine so much before you start losing the casual and pickupandplayiness of the games that have made them popular.

Bagels PSN:WolfLogic @ Dec 8th 2008 5:28PM

Agreed. RockBand 2 is good how it is, if people can't get the DLC digitally then just start making discs.

Bagels PSN:WolfLogic @ Dec 8th 2008 5:29PM

totally meant @ soulcrux42 darn you comment system.

Abscissa @ Dec 8th 2008 5:35PM

I've gotten tired of Guitar Hero/Rock Band specifically because of market saturation and growing incompatibility issues.

First of all, there's the instruments. There are none that are cross-platform, and even within a platform the guidelines of what does and doesn't work with what are so complex it necessitates a "compatibility matrix". That's unacceptable. And don't go pretending this is purely because of Activision. Remember, it was Harmonix that deliberately blocked the TAC controllers in GH2. And if you're buying Harmonix's line that it's just due to technical issues with the TAC controllers, think again: the unofficial GH2 guitar compatibility patch that's been floating around the net proves that Harmonix's claim is a complete load of shit (I've used it - it works perfectly fine).

Then, there's the fact that if you wanted to play a particular song, there was only one disc to run: Guitar Hero. Then there was GH2, and you're chances of needing to swap games to play a particular song rose to 50%. Not ideal, but still acceptable, of course. But now, we've got three Guitar Heroes from Harmonix (If you think it's 2, you're forgetting "80's"), at least three more from Neversoft, AND two Rock Bands, and then there's Rock Revolution as well. It's gotten to the point where I don't even know what the fuck song is on what game, and I have no interest in memorizing such trivialities. It's time for these "Band Simulators" to become a *platform*, not three separate series of games. We can have competing "Interactive Song" players, that's fine, that's great even. But if each one is going to continue to support nothing but it's own proprietary format, then the whole genre is going to die off fairly quickly and become as insignificant as DDR is today.

oolz @ Dec 8th 2008 6:49PM

Let me break that long winded post down for people who don't care to read it:

I'm an idiot with poor search skills and the attention span of a gnat..

next

therpham @ Dec 8th 2008 5:37PM

Guitar Hero was done once it wasn't being developed by Harmonix anymore. Now that Harmonix have milked another two games out of the rock genre, I'm really curious about where they'll go next. I hope they don't just get stuck making Rock Band 5: We Were Kidding About It Being A Platform Edition.

Chris @ Dec 8th 2008 5:41PM

Add me to the small list of people who don't care about these games. I play games to do stuff I can't do in real life. If I wanted to play a guitar, I'd buy one and learn :D

edgore @ Dec 8th 2008 6:09PM

Another person wasting his life doing real-life activities that do not allow the accumulation of Gamer Score. It is sad to see.

Delgado @ Dec 8th 2008 6:22PM

Jesus I thought all of you had crawled back into your caves already.

Temidien @ Dec 9th 2008 9:58AM

I agree, if my gamerscore doesn't go up or the activity doesn't come with achievements, I just don't see the point...

aj @ Dec 9th 2008 5:22PM

Is this internet argument about making fun of someone for doing something in the real world?

BIZZARO! BIZZARO! BIZZAROOOOO!!!

But seriously, he's right. I can learn to play guitar. I can't shoot lasers out of my eyes. So let's have more laser games.

bill51 @ Dec 8th 2008 5:46PM

I was obsessed with GH1, GH2, and somewhat with GH3. Rock Band was my last foray into the genre.

Though its fun to play, I don't want to spend any more money on it. I'll just stick to my 'real' instruments and maybe pick up the newer GH/RB iterations on down the line for cheap used.

Shagittarius @ Dec 8th 2008 6:36PM

I'm peaking man!

Bass Masterson @ Dec 8th 2008 7:04PM

There's a Wal-Mart commercial on TV showing a family rocking out with Guitar Hero or possibly Rock Band, in that PC, post-feminist way where the mom is playing guitar with her kid while neuter-daddy tends the baby. If it weren't already obvious that this concept was dead as dirt, that put the final nail in the coffin.

Jonathan @ Dec 8th 2008 7:12PM

Dude not everyone lives up to stereotypes. My dad has never had an interest in video games, but I just picked up bioshock for my mom for Christmas.

Bass Masterson @ Dec 8th 2008 8:46PM

The reason things become stereotypes is because they are _generally_ true, not because they are _always_ true.

VaultICEE @ Dec 8th 2008 7:09PM

Your "alcohol anonymous" joke comments are getting old.

Jeff @ Dec 8th 2008 7:43PM

I was totally obsessed with Guitar Hero 1 and 2, and then 3 was...off. It just wasn't as fun. I couldn't put my finger on it. World Tour is a disaster, in my eyes. It feels so totally rushed. It was a step backwards in terms of UI, and the song list was terrible, for the most part (but that's opinion).

I'm still enjoying RB2, though.

To me, this shows that this decline in sales is because of a decline in quality...

Roto13 @ Dec 8th 2008 8:24PM

I think World Tour is MUCH better than GHIII. Though I don't like the way career mode is set up. I'd rather play the songs one-at-a-time.

Kevin949 @ Dec 8th 2008 10:32PM

wtf is up with the purple bar? ya I know what to do on it, but seriously was there not enough to think about already on the guitar? *Shrug* Oh well, whatever, it's all getting run into the ground anyway.

And to the guy(s) saying they should have just offered DLC instead of full games, I've been saying that since Aerosmith and RB2 were announced, I agree with you guys 100%.

RabbidMickeyMouse @ Dec 8th 2008 10:59PM

The next thing to happen should be an iTunes for the genre. Let anyone who's already able to sell on iTunes (to prevent copyright issues, if at least to let iTunes take that responcibility, not RB or GH) given the chance to have a "Download this song for Rock Band/GH" option. Let them have this option next to the "Buy this song on iTunes" button on sites like Amazon, what have you.

None of this music pack nonsense. Let us buy songs individually at our leisure, with anyone selling on a service like iTunes in on the business.