Microsoft says current gen will be 'little longer' than previous
The weakening economy will most likely delay the arrival of a new generation even further. "When you look at consumers, they are going to be more value-conscious," Bach said. A next-generation console released any time soon would be prohibitively expensive and no company wants to repeat the same mistake Sony made.Perhaps the "ten year" mantra won't necessarily be a PlayStation-exclusive PR bullet point.
The surprising success of Wii will undoubtedly make Microsoft refocus their next-gen efforts. Nintendo managed to claim the top spot of the console wars, in spite of having significantly less powerful tech. "Just coming up with something that's faster and prettier isn't going to be sufficient," Bach adds.
[Via Edge]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
Doug @ Jan 12th 2009 11:55AM
Be prepared fanboys.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LklWE_8yudE&feature=related
Nitescape @ Jan 12th 2009 11:55AM
And ya know what?
That is just fine that it may be longer.
Let's enjoy the current 3 and let there become a bigger gap so that the next generation is INDEED a bigger improvement that the previous.
Cody @ Jan 12th 2009 1:11PM
A little longer?? For what, to bask a little longer in 3rd place glory? Go to hell Microsoft you are destroying the game industry right along with the computer OS industry.
Wii/PS3 a match made in heaven!
Go Gators!!!
VampireHunter Z @ Jan 12th 2009 1:25PM
@Cody
PS3 will always be behind Xbox360. Get used to it.
@Nitescape
I agree. I don't think there will even be a big enough technology gap in the next year. Just looking at the PC videocard market is a clear indication. Videocards are just getting bigger, louder and are consuming more power. And the improvements are marginal. I don't want these in my console. Until they figure out how to make these smaller, more efficient and can do actual vector lighting in realtime they are not ready.
Duke @ Jan 12th 2009 1:29PM
Personally, I think this generation was a big improvement over the last. Though I too don't care to see another generation of consoles anytime soon. The ones out now are doing a pretty damn good job and the games look great.
JCD @ Jan 15th 2009 1:42PM
I concur with the seemingly prevalent opinion here. Current gen systems are still more or less on par with current gen pc hardware. You would need a cutting edge system (quad core CPU, 4 vid cards in SLI configuration) to see any appreciable difference between pc and console, and most of that extra power is wasted on the pc's higher resolution.
mynk @ Jan 17th 2009 4:45PM
microsoft destroying the PC OS Market? dude... microsoft practically created the PC OS Market, and are single handedly running more than a humble amount of it. windows 7 rocks, i with most other engadget commenters (i dont know about joystiq) loved our vista... actually nvm. i forgot trolls dont know english.
McWeen @ Jan 12th 2009 11:56AM
As long as there are enjoyable games coming out that continue to sell you don't need new hardware
samfish @ Jan 12th 2009 11:57AM
Tell that to the Wii haters.
Dr. Stabbingworth @ Jan 12th 2009 1:37PM
I think the Wii hater contention is that there are very few enjoyable games for the Wii, so there's not much to tell...
I hope they delay making new systems until 6-8 years after the start of this gen. The graphics are good enough at this point. Let's wait until they can make some serious improvements.
samfish @ Jan 12th 2009 11:56AM
Considering that the Xbox was only out for about 4 years, it can't be that hard for them to beat their previous record.
Still, I expect Xbox 3 by the end of 2010. The only way they hold off until 2011 is if there are delays or the economy is so in the shitter still that they decide to hold stock. But it'll be ready to roll off the factory lines by the end of next year, if need be.
anonim1979 @ Jan 12th 2009 12:09PM
X360 in 2010.? Sure.
But it would be foolish to think that Sony won't be ready this time - and suffer another 1+ year delay.
This time PS4 will launch WITH X720 IF not SOONER!
"A PS4 will be launched by Sony but not until at least 2010 claims the Vice President of Technology for Sony Computer Entertainment Europe, Paul Holman."
"Reacting to Yuta Sakurai's opinion that the recent Sony management shuffle would mean Sony's eventual exit from the gaming hardware market, SCEE VP of Technology Paul Holman claims that Sony is still intent on releasing a PS4... in 2010 at the earliest. And 2010 isn't even ten years after 2006, if you've noticed."
SoCoolCurt (PSN: KillaKornbread - XBL: SoCoolCurt) @ Jan 12th 2009 12:21PM
everyone completely misunderstands that "10 year" quote. they mean they will support it for 10 years like they have done with PSOne and are approaching with PS2. they never said they wouldnt launch another console during that time span. just look at how well the PS2 is still selling and look back at how long the PSOne still sold strong after the PS2's launch. i dont know if they will be able to accomplish this with PS3 to PS4 unless they can seriously cut production costs and price fast but the history of it is there.
vidGuy @ Jan 12th 2009 12:28PM
@SoCoolCurt, I think it is totally possible that the PS3 remains in some living rooms as a BluRay player for ten years, but I seriously doubt the PS3 can have the longevity as a gaming system that the PS1 and PS2 did. They both had huge market penetration early on and it only went up. PS3 sales will likely peak before much longer, as BluRay players get cheaper and the Wii continues to dominate the "cheap console with lots of games" market. Throughout this entire generation, the PS3 will be looked at as the expensive movie player by most.
SoCoolCurt (PSN: KillaKornbread - XBL: SoCoolCurt) @ Jan 12th 2009 12:50PM
@vidGuy
did you read my whole comment? i did elude to that.
"i dont know if they will be able to accomplish this with PS3 to PS4 unless they can seriously cut production costs and price fast but the history of it is there."
people used their PS2's as their main DVD players for years (i know i did), so it's not far fetched to think the PS3 could be the same way with Blu-Ray. i know that im personally not planning on buying another Blu-Ray player anytime soon, PS3 is all i need right now until they put Blu-Ray players standard in new PC's or players are on average below $100.
Levi @ Jan 12th 2009 2:00PM
Oh, another "$ony is dead" comment, great job Alien Lord. How very original.
Check out the release lineup for PS3 this year, while you're busy trolling.
Phantom @ Jan 16th 2009 7:20PM
@ alienlord
Did the Xbox and Gamecube destroy there brands, no.
Sony won the last two generations with a SWEEPING VICTORY ahead of their competetion buy dozens of millions of units. And they've only been in 2 complete generetions. Also, don't forget that this gen isn't over yet. And if the PS3 is really as powerful as they hype it to be, they might even have the PS3 fight thru the next gen too, and compete with the X720 and WiiHD
Mr Khan @ Jan 12th 2009 11:58AM
2011 Xbox 720, Wii 2, 2012 PS4 (all names obviously tentative). Microsoft is probably right where they want to be right now, and can readily get 2.5 more years out of the current hardware. Nintendo has been on a 5-year plan for consoles like clockwork from the SNES forward, but they'll want to keep the Wii alive after that, certainly. Sony will want to hold on just a bit longer in order to profit
Microsoft didn't kill the Xbox simply because they wanted to move the 360 out, they killed the Xbox because Xbox was killing them. Losing money per console, even at the end of it's life, and because of their toxic relationship with Intel and Nvidia (especially the latter) they had no way of ever hoping to make the console profitable. Killing it was only financially prudent
jackal @ Jan 12th 2009 2:56PM
Mr. Khan,
Unfortunately, most people don't know why Microsoft killed the XBOX as early as it did (your analysis was spot on), they just assumed Microsoft was forcing obsolescence early in order to milk people out of their money. As you pointed out, Microsoft was never going to make a profit on the original XBOX.
Microsoft didn't have the intellectual property necessary to move the mutant Geforce 3 from (I think) a 130 nm process down to something smaller; since NVIDIA is a fabless company (like ATI, they depend on external foundries like TSMC to physically make their goods), they were making money off of that same IP and were, thus, unwilling to turn it over to MS for reducing manufacturing costs. MS tried suing them over it and subsequently lost (their contract with NVIDIA was ironclad and, subsequently, screwed them).
Intel's a little different; they don't just own the X86 license, they also have their own internal foundry. Intel's Pentium 3 Coppermines had some well publicized stability problems so, rather than junking them, Intel crippled them slightly (lowered the L2 cache) and sold them to Microsoft; even though the processors couldn't quite make the cut for desktop use, they were ideal for Microsoft's needs. There in lies the problem. Intel had no compelling reason to shrink the XBOX's CPU from 130 nm down to a "small" 90 nm since the processor was A) re purposed defect and B) from a previous architecture; die shrinks cost time and money, neither of which Intel was willing to spend on older "bargain bin" parts.
The last problem was the XBOX's HDD. Hardly anyone was making 5 GB 3.5" HDDs back then because desktop HDDs of the same physical size had far more storage and fewer platters than what XBOX was using; the more information you can cram onto a platter, the fewer you have to use, and the cheaper the HDD becomes (it's partly why the 20 GB PS3 actually cost more than the 60 GB SKU to manufacture (it's kinda why a 500 GB HDD might cost $60, but a 40 GB HDD'll have the same price). As time went on, that 5 GB became increasingly more expensive.
The XBOX, from the start, was doomed to be a financial failure; at best, the system would've just broken even.
Killjebus @ Jan 12th 2009 11:59AM
Previous for Microsoft (4 years) or previous for Sony (5 and 6 years)?
Either way, I am fine with this. In barley 2 years the PS3 games have improved tenfold, and just like the PS1 and PS2, the console will not be maxed out for another 2 or 3 years.
Is it Feb. 5th yet?
Alien Lord @ Jan 12th 2009 12:12PM
Yeah I'm waiting for the Halo Wars demo too.
(The Award-Winning) dark_inchworm @ Jan 12th 2009 12:39PM
Best ownage I've seen in a while.
J @ Jan 12th 2009 6:45PM
I don't get it. So killjebus got the wrong release date, or something?
Either way, while he's being subjective, if you've seen the games, you have to be in denial not to feel the same way.
Resistance 1 - Uncharted 1 - Killzone 2 - Uncharted 2 - Heavy Rain
Those are considerable improvements. It's exciting to find out how far it'll go before the ps3's graphical potential is maxed out, no?
I would like to think so. Hey, if the 360 can do just as well, then what are you worried about? Just enjoy the damn game and stop being jealous.
Snowblind @ Jan 12th 2009 12:01PM
Well Microsoft are actually making a profit on the 360, so I don't see why they'd rush out a new console anytime soon. And the technology difference would be even smaller than it was last generation than this.
So yeah, I think we have another couple years yet.
vidGuy @ Jan 12th 2009 12:02PM
I really thinking it’s going to be more an issue of responding to Nintendo. Wii is a big hit but there is no way Nintendo rides it into 2011. They will need to come out with a first strike to keep the market, and I see that move being made by Holidays 2010 at the latest. I expect the next Nintendo system to be a rebuild of the Wii along the lines of the way Nintendo does the handhelds. Say, a system that has the power of the 360 with the looks of a Wii, completely back-compatible so that controls and games aren’t forfeited.
Sony is likely to ride the PS3 into the black, so a PS4 probably is not likely until 2012 (hopefully the world doesn’t end before the release!). Will MS see Nintendo’s next move as direct competition for their next console or only more competition for the 360? Hard to say, but now that MS has the market penetration to make the 360 profitable, I don’t see them backing off it until necessary.
Prof_Chaos @ Jan 12th 2009 1:41PM
As much as I wish you are right, I don't think that will happen. Nintendo loves to do stuff in their own time. I also don;t think that they're going to release something unless they feel they really have a winner. I don't think it's enough to just re-jig the Wii with HD output and Wii MotionPlus integrated. They'll want more. I for the life of me have no idea what that will be though.
Mr Khan @ Jan 12th 2009 1:44PM
Nintendo moves too early, and they're in danger of splitting their own market, Nintendo moves too late, and you have an equally grave problem
2011 is the magic number. Wii has a long way to go in the console process, colors and pricedrops aren't even on the horizon yet...
Bluebrake @ Jan 12th 2009 1:48PM
Sony would love to ride the PS3 into the black, but they can't. For one thing, they can't afford to let a competitor get a head start on them again -- that was the number one reason they're losing to Microsoft right now.
For another, the PS3 is never going to be profitable. It's already lost more money than the wildly successful PS2 ever made. At this rate, they'd have to maintain sales for something like another 15 years to earn it all back. (Note that that number is completely made up. I have no idea what the actual time period would be, but it's well over a regular console's lifespan).
On the other hand, bringing out the PS4 before 2011 will obviously hurt them, and cut their journey to profitability short even more. They're in a tough situation. Next year is going to be interesting to watch.
VeryMetal @ Jan 12th 2009 12:04PM
I see Micorsoft is taking Nintendos philosophy with the next generation 'Just coming up with something something that's faster and prettier isn't going to be sufficient.'
Does this company ever have an original concept or idea?
Call the next system XboxMe2
Alien Lord @ Jan 12th 2009 12:13PM
Troll a lot?
Snowblind @ Jan 12th 2009 12:15PM
Because Sony and Nintendo totally haven't copied an equal amount from Microsoft this generation..
Nintendo were obviously right when they thought they could grab a much larger audiance with something like the Wii. Did you honestly think that Microsoft AND Sony were just going to ignore that?
Doug @ Jan 12th 2009 12:15PM
Lol, you think companies don't think about that. Hell, if you just released an original product everyone should buy it right? It's not that easy, making something completely new and original is often to risky. Advancing it is easier, and more convenient. Virtual Boy= failed
Wii= won.
Depends how lucky you get.
Remember when motion sensing was the coolest thing ever? Now it's 3-D.
SoCoolCurt (PSN: KillaKornbread - XBL: SoCoolCurt) @ Jan 12th 2009 12:32PM
yea dude seriously. releasing something original is a HUGE risk in this area of the gaming market. if they try something new (hardware wise) and it fails, they could be stuck with something no one wants for 3+ years until they make something else or go belly up. you have to understand that the majority of consoles (excluding the Wii) come out and loose money from the gate and during they're life cycle, lower production cost and software sales are where the companies make their money.
perfect examples of this are Wii and PS3. Wii took a risk with the motion controls (and touch on DS) and it paid off, but Sony has had their backs against the wall the entire generation because they decided to include risky brand new unproven and unpopular tech as standard. this ultimately led to Blu-Ray winning but had it lost, Sony would have an expensive box filled with dead tech.
you see how much money Sony is loosing now and they are stuck with that until they make something else. originality is very risky.
Shmil @ Jan 12th 2009 12:36PM
Alien Lord, you're one to talk about trollin
NOT ME @ Jan 13th 2009 7:55PM
Actually from a console POV MS has done quite a few console 1st things. on that same note what has sony done that was sooo ahead of its time. as a matter of fact ps2 copied a couple of things from other consoles. i.e. networking, HDD. the only thing i remember sony doing is dual analog sticks. so please explain the resentment toward ms from trying and succeeding at new things in the console market. PC guys fall back this topic has NOTHING to do with you!!!
carg0 @ Jan 12th 2009 12:08PM
considering how the 360 will forever be synonymous with the infamous "RRoD" M$ better not even think about launching a successor anytime soon.
Duke @ Jan 12th 2009 1:52PM
Being that the console is in the black now and has sold 28+ million units plus has had the highest game attach rate, I think they have the right to talk about how the industry will go forward.
Like it or not, the industry is made up of more than the model you're a fanboy for.
carg0 @ Jan 12th 2009 2:36PM
i own a 360, you ignorant schmuck. fanboy's don't blast products they own and it most certainly doesn't change what i said before. fanboy's are what voted my prior comment down despite the fact that it's true.
unlike you, i'm a consumer first who doesn't overlook "little things" like the whole RRoD debacle regardless of how many units have been sold to date.
here's an interesting question that you probably don't want to think about: of those 28mil sold to date, how many do you think are from consoles that have red ringed?
Duke @ Jan 12th 2009 3:00PM
I think the "ignorant schmuck" comment was your initial one.
Also, in judging my own enjoyment of a system it doesn't matter that there were millions of rrod units if the problems were handled and millions of consumers are happy (as I am) with their product...as is shown by attachment rates and the fact they keep selling units.
You were voted down because your observation was just wrong - as was your rude overreaction to me. Don't expect me to be mad at my 360 because others are broken.
carg0 @ Jan 12th 2009 6:08PM
do you even listen to yourself when you speak?
"my own enjoyment of a system it doesn't matter that there were millions of rrod units"
so you're personal "enjoyment" of the system completely absolves M$ of producing countless defective units despite their awareness and the billion dollars they lost trying to fix it? are you serious?
can you even begin to see what's wrong with that frame of logic? i hope you just started HS because you can only afford to be naïve for so long, boy...
Duke @ Jan 12th 2009 6:20PM
You really are a jackass. If you are going to quote than use the whole quote - context makes things make sense.
No, I don't moan when I play a game on an XBox because another XBox someplace out there is broken. You may waste your time pining for the fjords, but I rather not act like a baby just for the sake of hearing my own crying.
I don't think I need to go any farther than that regarding your weak and overly angry comments, boy. I guarantee you don't have the room to speak to me as a stupid child.
HippoHero @ Jan 12th 2009 8:23PM
You are both infirm little weiners.
HippoHero could crush both you fanbabies with his toenails if he wasn't so concerned about all the shit that would get underneath them.
carg0 @ Jan 12th 2009 8:25PM
"No, I don't moan when I play a game on an XBox because another XBox someplace out there is broken"
of course you don't, we've already established that. the world revolves around you, naturally, and so long as you're happy nothing else matters. yea, i already figured that out.
im still waiting to hear an intelligent answer as to why you think such willful negligence on a global scale is acceptable. (just curious, do you even have a basic grasp of economics?)
Markez (Anti-Panda Death Murder Squadron) @ Jan 12th 2009 9:47PM
"i hope you just started HS because you can only afford to be naïve for so long, boy..."
Really. Really? Man, you're a grade A douche nozzle. Where's Hala Madrid when we need 'em?
carg0 @ Jan 12th 2009 10:46PM
(who the *#%@ is this loser butting into a discussion between two others? who does that?)
HippoHero @ Jan 12th 2009 11:37PM
"(who the *#%@ is this loser butting into a discussion between two others? who does that?)"
Only he who can consume cast amounts of vegetation!
Only he who can sleep underwater!
Only the most revered internet superhero ever!
"discussion"? Ha! Is that what you call your fanbaby flame war? HippoHero's Hippo sense tells him that's bullshit!
HippoHero will let you live for now, but only because he is too tired to climb through the internet tubing and pummel you.
Duke @ Jan 13th 2009 10:55AM
Yes, I have a grasp of economics and a law degree, so don't start with the negligence crap.
Good luck with sitting at home and bitching about the wrong actions of companies while you avoid their products. You should be very content sitting there with absolutely no products to use - as all corporations have screwed people in one fashion or another. Ever watch a Disney film? If so, you are a hypocrite.
"of course you don't, we've already established that. the world revolves around you, naturally, and so long as you're happy nothing else matters. yea, i already figured that out." - carg0
That comment stinks of desperate anger.
I never said the world revolved around me. I didn't know this was an issue of us all banding together to save humanity. I thought it was about a device we use for entertainment in our own homes. I guess I was mistaken - now, please, throw away all the food you have because it likely is offensive to someone.
Once again, you are one of the biggest jackasses I have seen here in a while. Save the 'i is so smart' bullshit for someone who will fall for it.
Evan @ Jan 12th 2009 12:18PM
"The surprising success of Wii will undoubtedly make Microsoft refocus their next-gen efforts."
They need to be careful...
Sony "refocused their efforts" and designed the PS3 to appeal to the Xbox's hardcore fans, and they lost the family, casual, and cheap toy markets that made up the majority of the PS2's overall sales.
If Microsoft "refocuses their efforts" and designs the "Xbox 720" to appeal to the Wii's family and casual markets, they risk losing the hardcore gamer market that made the 360 successful.
sam @ Jan 12th 2009 2:44PM
You really think PS3 was designed specifically to appeal to Xbox fans? When Xbox had come a far, far second place to PS2 and lost a gargantuan amount of money into the bargain? (Selling only a little more than GC, which at least made a profit.) Because, er, no.
PS3 was all Sony's own doing. And they did exactly the same as they did with PS2 (revolutionary new processor architecture, latest new optical-disc video format, high launch price). It didn't work quite so well second time around, but that's not because they took ideas from Microsoft's failed console.
Unintentionally falling into the same trap, maybe. Trying to follow the failure on purpose - no.
As for the general topic, I wouldn't expect to see new consoles from anyone until 2011 at earliest.
My guesses...
Nintendo: Revolutionising the industry twice in a row doesn't sound like a smart bet - why bother when this generation's effort worked so well and will probably still be working in 2011. So HD Wii, with similar technical power to 360.
Microsoft, Sony: Another jump in power but less than last time so they can sell their systems at a good price. At the start of the system's life, more focus on fun games and less on shooters. Maybe more emphasis on physical design/style rather than another humungous PC tower case with curves stuck on.
(And whatever they say, I'd guess MS will still want to launch before Sony; this time around it worked pretty well. Hopefully they will iron out their manufacturing problems first though.)
Of course this is a status-quo guess so it could be completely wrong :)
Darthweder @ Jan 12th 2009 7:59PM
@sam
Lol, the Emotion Processor was revolutionary? I guess we're all using those now right?
We're not? Oh...
At least the Cell actually has applications outside of the PS3, but the Emotion Processor? Give me a break...