Sony tried a half hearted attempt at motion controls with six-axis that can be expanded upon with a new independent periphrial. I don't see Sony pushing another set of new architecture and format. I think the cell and Blu-Ray will be staples of at least the next Playstation iteration.

Nintendo was in a unique position after last generation because of the failure of the Gamecube in terms of consumer adoption. They couldn't afford to take any chances in terms of consumer adoption & hardware this time around. I don't think that even Nintendo expected the success they had with the Wii coming off the Gamecube.

By the time Sony launches the PS4 Blu-Ray will be more saturated and the cell architecture will have made leaps in it's processing power. Sony is really in a good position as far as that goes because they will be able to have essentially the same machine they do now except with some increased internal specs and it will generate greater horsepower than using an exotic architecture.

The wild card of next generation is Microsoft. I'm really not sure what route they will choose to go. They could try to do what the PS3 attempted this generation and cram every single device into it's gaming machine and then some - tv tuner, Fios connectivity, web-browser, wi-fi etc etc ... I could also see them making marginal improvements and not really pushing the hardware like what Nintendo did but applying some new input perphrials in additon to the the current controller.

You need hardware features + O/S software features + online infrastructure + games + something new + an affordable price point to have mass consumer adoption. It's not as easy as making a new input device like a Wii mote.

i remember watching the E3 keynote from nintendo and how they said "4 years ago, if i stood here and said that we as a company would do so well, everyone would laugh at me" or something like that.

but i think being in that tight spot, nintendo was really put under uniqe kinds of pressure.

i think all three companies are in differnt positions, with nintendo being generally accepted in asia and europe with a need for innovation, sony known as the brand for power with a good japanese backing, and microsoft -- an american company that also does PCs, newly getting into consoles (well, comparitively new)

i agree when you say microsoft will be the wildcard, but microsoft has just so much more to do than the others in terms of possibility (not saying that the 360 doesnt have features comparitively). microsoft mediaroom, live everywhere, life without walls -- cloud computing, windows 7 or whatever is out there in 2012... (coupled with a lead in on world dommination :P) all this could really make the 360 more than a video game console, it would put true meaning to an media entertainemnt system....

maybe they would couple it with surface technologies, or something else. but they are really focusing on "natural" user input this year... (CES 09) maybe the waggle isnt so far off.... oh, and hardware failures :P

sony is in the same position nintendo was a with the gamecube, in need of a new buisness plan.... though their 10-year outlook may be different.

i wonder if nintendo would innovate at all for the next gen, or if hardware upgrades will be thier way to go.. because chances are thier cash printers will keep printing.