Despite the rallying of software publishers, EEDAR Analyst Jesse Divnich thinks a PS3 price cut won't be that beneficial to Sony in the short term. In his retail sales preview for February 2009, Divnich calls the hypothetical, analyst-expected June price drop "unlikely to propel sales ahead of last [fiscal] year for the first half of 2009."
Even though he says the PS3 has "an impressive holiday 09 line-up," he claims Microsoft's successful campaign to position itself as the "core console of choice" won't give Sony much wiggle room. Currently, the PS3 is in last place for this gen, but Divnich has high hopes for PS3 in the long term. He expects Sony's system to pick up steam by "2011 through 2017," when Blu-ray becomes dirt cheap. It's not a very optimistic outlook.
Reader Comments (103)
Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:15PM JuanLovesHorror said
recently there was a performance test for blu-ray players in the market. ps3 pretty much destroys competition in all categories. The closest one to the ps3 was a 600 dollar model which has 0 storage.
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Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:17PM Da Largest said
"DVD didn't help the PS2 in the long term"
so what you're saying is that being one of the first machines on the market that played dvds at a reasonable price, therefore generating sales and giving the ps2 the install base that justified in many developers minds switching outright to ps2 exclusivity
didn't help the ps2 in the long term?
can i have some of what you're smoking?
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so what you're saying is that being one of the first machines on the market that played dvds at a reasonable price, therefore generating sales and giving the ps2 the install base that justified in many developers minds switching outright to ps2 exclusivity
didn't help the ps2 in the long term?
can i have some of what you're smoking?
Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:29PM (Unverified) said
If PS2 didn't have the DVD drive showcasing movies, the Dreamcast would of been in business still.
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Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:31PM Douche McBaggins said
Can I learn your art of stupid? I swear what you just unleashed was a concentrated idiocy and if I could make this in the form of a weapon I could use it to dumb down international countries to slow down their progress and help America climb back to number 1.
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Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:46PM Troy Powers said
Gentleman, that was by far the funniest comment I've read in a very long time.
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Posted: Mar 17th 2009 9:34PM (Unverified) said
*shakes fist*
Damn you PS2 for killing off my Dreamcast Dreams!!
*stubs toe*
RICKLES!!!
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Damn you PS2 for killing off my Dreamcast Dreams!!
*stubs toe*
RICKLES!!!
Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:27PM Wickerman22 said
Yeah, because the PS3 was flying off the shelves before the recession.
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Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:50PM (Unverified) said
Matt, the US has been in a recession for a little over 2 years now, PS3 came out in late 06...
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Posted: Mar 17th 2009 7:31PM (Unverified) said
If the 360 has another another so-so lineup next year, and the PS3 gets another pricedrop and another killer lineup next year, they have a good chance of closing the gap significantly.
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Posted: Mar 17th 2009 8:04PM (Unverified) said
So the economy hurt Sony, but not Microsoft.
Got it.
If by "the recession" you mean "the fact that it cost hundreds of dollars more to make a PS3 than a 360" then you're absolutely right.
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Got it.
If by "the recession" you mean "the fact that it cost hundreds of dollars more to make a PS3 than a 360" then you're absolutely right.
Posted: Mar 17th 2009 8:49PM (Unverified) said
HitNRun, the recession hurt Sony because people still want to game but will prefer a cheaper price tag to more features.
Lets see, Wii is on top (Cheapest), followed by 360 (Second Cheapest), followed by PS3 (most expensive). It's no coincidence.
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Lets see, Wii is on top (Cheapest), followed by 360 (Second Cheapest), followed by PS3 (most expensive). It's no coincidence.
Posted: Mar 17th 2009 9:42PM (Unverified) said
1) The 2+ year recession you're basing this on is a fantasy. Consumer spending has only really been battered in the last year or less, Sony's best so far.
2) What "more features" does the PS3 have? Even the hardest-core Sony fan wouldn't argue that the PS3 had a better games lineup before last year. If you mean Blu-Ray, you're right, except for the part where you think the average consumer would want it enough to pay $200 (now $100) extra for it in a normal economy.
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2) What "more features" does the PS3 have? Even the hardest-core Sony fan wouldn't argue that the PS3 had a better games lineup before last year. If you mean Blu-Ray, you're right, except for the part where you think the average consumer would want it enough to pay $200 (now $100) extra for it in a normal economy.
Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:05PM Jack Tretton said
"He expects Sony's system to pick up steam by '2011 through 2017...'"
This is like saying Louie Anderson could look like Brad Pitt if you give him eight years to try.
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This is like saying Louie Anderson could look like Brad Pitt if you give him eight years to try.
Posted: Mar 18th 2009 1:27PM soulseekerUK said
He expects Sony's system to pick up steam by "2011 through 2017, Are they hoping to do this on there existing PS3 hardware... shame if they are.....
well i for one will be on the next generation of console by then, more likely microsoft console...or maybe a something from the big N only if they ramp the hardware spec up... which i dont imagine will be anything more that this gen.
This generation seems like its only got 2-3 years max... then it be a slew of same old same old games. Gamers would be demanding (high scale physics taking the lead-1080p 60-120 FPS - also some new controlling method that works better in 3d enviroments) i think it will be hard to squeeze too much more out of any of this generation of consoles within the next 2-3 years... PS3 may be scalable but not that scalable....
Roll on the NEXT Gen..... thats the trouble being an early adopter.
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well i for one will be on the next generation of console by then, more likely microsoft console...or maybe a something from the big N only if they ramp the hardware spec up... which i dont imagine will be anything more that this gen.
This generation seems like its only got 2-3 years max... then it be a slew of same old same old games. Gamers would be demanding (high scale physics taking the lead-1080p 60-120 FPS - also some new controlling method that works better in 3d enviroments) i think it will be hard to squeeze too much more out of any of this generation of consoles within the next 2-3 years... PS3 may be scalable but not that scalable....
Roll on the NEXT Gen..... thats the trouble being an early adopter.
Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:06PM (Unverified) said
He is probably accurate, i am a die-hard sony fanboy this gen. But it seems an impossible hurdle to leap to match up with the 360. I still think the ps3 is the better system and has a very strong line-up, but at this rate it will be a few years before people realize what an amazing system the ps3 is.
Let the Downrating Begin!!!!!
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Let the Downrating Begin!!!!!
Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:12PM (Unverified) said
it's hard to keep up with a system whose consumers buy 2-5 consoles because of failure rates. I have both and prefer the PS3. I tell all my friends who are not sure which to buy the goods and the bads for each one. I do wish they would drop the price though, so more of my friends could afford them.
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Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:15PM Da Largest said
Both the PS3 and the 360 have their own fair share of problems; I wouldn't consider either 'amazing', as the former went without a steady supply of games for a while (though you'd have to be an idiot not to think that that situation's been rectified... 2008 was pretty great and this year just looks fantastic), and the latter still to this day suffers from hardware issues (and the list o' exclusives this year is looking pretty weak).
Anywhos, the PS3 has been steadily picking up steam for the last year or so. I wouldn't say that it's impossible for it to reach the 360's sales, though I do think it'll take some drastic restructuring as far as marketing goes on Sony's part for that to happen.
Then again, who (other than fanboys and folks inside the industry) cares about sales in the first place?
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Anywhos, the PS3 has been steadily picking up steam for the last year or so. I wouldn't say that it's impossible for it to reach the 360's sales, though I do think it'll take some drastic restructuring as far as marketing goes on Sony's part for that to happen.
Then again, who (other than fanboys and folks inside the industry) cares about sales in the first place?
Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:39PM Ordeith said
"Anywhos, the PS3 has been steadily picking up steam for the last year or so."
If you define a steady decline of YOY sales as "picking up steam" you might be correct.
As it is, the PS3 is on track to sell less systems in 2009 than it did in 2008. Not a good sign.
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If you define a steady decline of YOY sales as "picking up steam" you might be correct.
As it is, the PS3 is on track to sell less systems in 2009 than it did in 2008. Not a good sign.
Posted: Mar 17th 2009 6:37PM Da Largest said
Seriously? Huh, I didn't know that. Then again, my evidence was anecdotal (know a LOT of people who dropped $$$ for a PS3 last year... could have sworn that sales rose too)
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Posted: Mar 17th 2009 7:17PM kentuckyfried said
Gamers are mostly a bunch of cheap scrubs...that explains why the ps3 is in last place. they're willing to pay less for a console even if it's documented as having any number of significant design problems and unacceptable rates of failure.
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Posted: Mar 17th 2009 7:32PM Vcize said
Either that, or they just prefer having more fun over having less fun (with regards to what they consider fun).
I would pay 5x as much for my 360 as I would for my PS3, if not more. But that's just me, someone who enjoys online gaming and plays 100x more Gears of War and Mass Effect than every PS3 game I've ever played combined.
Obviously, different tastes for different folks but trying to qualify it as a price thing alone is stupid. The 360 outsold the PS3 more months than vice versa prior to the 360's price cut (and after the PS3's cut down to $400/$500).
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I would pay 5x as much for my 360 as I would for my PS3, if not more. But that's just me, someone who enjoys online gaming and plays 100x more Gears of War and Mass Effect than every PS3 game I've ever played combined.
Obviously, different tastes for different folks but trying to qualify it as a price thing alone is stupid. The 360 outsold the PS3 more months than vice versa prior to the 360's price cut (and after the PS3's cut down to $400/$500).
Posted: Mar 17th 2009 7:43PM Da Largest said
Haha, nowhere else would I be downvoted for admitting that I was wrong.
Gotta love the 'stiq.
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Gotta love the 'stiq.
Posted: Mar 17th 2009 8:20PM Istari Spartan said
Downvote me.
I demand you downvote me to hell right now!
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I demand you downvote me to hell right now!
Posted: Mar 17th 2009 9:17PM Morisato13 said
@Moris
160+ comments for me. 10+ comments for you. Stop making ME look bad.
Reply
160+ comments for me. 10+ comments for you. Stop making ME look bad.
Posted: Mar 18th 2009 12:18PM rapidix said
if the companies are expecting ten year life spans out of their systems, then i'd say this race is still in the beginning. i don't know why either side would say who is finishing second. second because we all know the wii is far enough ahead for the win. but who is really winning with the wii? not gamers. go second place!
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Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:13PM (Unverified) said
yep will be playing xbox 720 when ps3 is still playing catchup
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Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:20PM Pure Black World Tendency said
but you will likely be doing so in your mobile home.
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Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:34PM (Unverified) said
IIn 8 years we will probably be playing Xbox 360 games on a better faster PC
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Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:45PM (Unverified) said
@Freeze: 8 years? You can do that already. The 360 has a very short list of exclusives that don't make it to the PC.
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Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:32PM cuteSAVAGE said
It's that machine that lets you play Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destruction over, and over, and over again because it is so damned fun!
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Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:54PM (Unverified) said
Well, it's not quite a Playground and it's not quite a Space Station, but man...
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Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:20PM (Unverified) said
By that time I think Sony will be focused on the PS4.
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Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:23PM Crusty Magic said
Why not try a temporary price drop then to see heightened consumer interest?
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Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:32PM Crusty Magic said
I would be one of the first in line if such a thing were to occur.
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Posted: Mar 17th 2009 5:47PM (Unverified) said
It's bad timing. Wait until unemployment climbs above 10% and people get tax refunds back. The best time for any kind of price drop is the upcoming holiday season. If Uncharted 2 and GoW3 can drop by Christmas, they'll have a win.
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