Pachter calls March Wii console sales 'somewhat disconcerting'

by Ben Gilbert on Apr 18th 2009 3:00PM

Michael Pachter, analyst for Wedbush Morgan, isn't freaking out, and he wants you to know that you shouldn't be either. He notes, while speaking on the subject of March NPD numbers, that even though the month saw hardware sales numbers drop across the board, that really has more to do with extraordinary sales for all comparable months. Speaking with GameSpot, Pachter said, "It's entirely possible that we were just up against an impossible comparison ... we're looking at a comparison to Grand Theft Auto IV in April, so it's likely that April will be down as well," referring to the release of Super Smash Bros. Brawl in March of 2008 and the subsequent month's GTAIV.

What he does find worrisome, however, is declining Wii software sales after a year of strong console sales, reportedly doubling the system's installed-base. "Given that the installed base of Wii consoles has doubled in the past year, we find it remarkable (and somewhat disconcerting) that Wii software sales were actually down year-over-year in March, dropping by $72 million, or 26 percent." Pachter doesn't see the future as grim though, pointing out that this summer's release of Wii MotionPlus and Wii Sports Resort should put some wind back in Nintendo's ~~sales~~ sails. We'll just have to wait 'til August NPDs are released to find out!

Source 1 - GameDaily
Source 2 - GameSpot

Tags: DS, gamedaily, gamespot, gtaiv, michael-pachter, motionplus, Nintendo, npd, super-smash-bros-brawl, Wii, wii-sports-resort

Reader Comments (83)

Also, that little thing called the economic melt down, that might have something to do with it, maybe.

this isn't really a surprise. after 2 years of insane sales, you would expect the sales to start dying down. even my hot history teacher has one so she can play wii fit. i see the wii as a gateway drug to the world of gaming. ps3 and 360 are like crack and heroin, the wii serves as mary jane.

Yeah, I mean even the PS2 was probably slowing down at this point in it's life. It does not surprise me that the Wii is slowing down, the insane sales don't last forever. If they did they would never make anything new, because why change what's doing well?

What's everyone so fussed about? Since when is 600K in a month poor? The 360 or PS3 would only dream of pushing those numbers during the holidays, and the PS3 seems to have only done it twice ever in Dec of 07 and 08, though I only checked Novembers and Decembers because those are normally the highest.

The main thing that I find laughable about the "Wii sales doom and gloom" group, is that even with sales down, they STILL way outdid PS3 and 360 numbers. NPD (whch only covers North America mind) show that the Wii still sold over 610,000 systems in March. 330,000 is the closest competitor console (the 360). Now, even with sales numbers down for everyone, with the Wii still selling almost TWICE as many consoles as its nearest competing company, I'd say that's nothing to cry over. Now, if the Wii dropped to selling only 300 or 400,000 and competing companies were right under Wii sales, then yes, you could try calling doom and gloom then. As it is, I think Nintendo is still sipping champagne in their cut diamond glasses over their solid gold silverware, atop their 100% silk table cloths, and laughing all the way to the bank. :)

Once again, we're talking about year-over-year

Once again, we're talking about March 2008 with Brawl and with Easter (which apparently does have an impact) and a March 2009 without Brawl or Easter

If anything, it suggests that Nintendo should be releasing their big games in the same months every year, just so the panicky stockholders and analysts with next to zero industry insight won't see year-over-year declines localized in something so arbitrary.

It's the job of stockholders and analyst to be pannicky. The sharp sales decline in Japan says hello ...

Eventually the sales have to go down. They can't continue to go up over the lifetime of the console.

Did you skip past this part?

"It's entirely possible that we were just up against an impossible comparison ... we're looking at a comparison to Grand Theft Auto IV in April, so it's likely that April will be down as well," referring to the release of Super Smash Bros. Brawl in March of 2008 and the subsequent month's GTAIV.

He said it was probably an impossible comparison but that it's still somewhat disconcerting. It sounds accurate to me and less pannicky than the tone in your post as you shuffled to explain it all away. One of the main tools an analyst has is YTD comparisons. It's not like they aren't relevant.

No, i didn't skip that part. My chiding remarks are generally for those of our peers who lack reading comprehension

I agree with everything you said.

its as simple as this...Soccer mom & Grandma/Grandpa dont have much they want to play outside of Wii Sports & Wii Fit. Who knows maybe Wii Sports Resort may do good but who know?? A Title having "Wii" in the name doesnt mean it will sell. Look @ Wii Music

VG Charts says that Wii music sold 2.5 million copies worldwide. Not as good as other Nintendo titles, but you can't say that it sold bad.

Thats my Point....JUST because it says WII in the title doesnt mean its going to sale as well as other Wii Titled games..

2.5 million copies is considered a huge success for any game today....

many highly rated, enjoyable games have sold 100,000 + copies.

it just goes to show that anything with Wii in the title will sell well.

how many games do you think sell more than 5 million copies?
not many of the total released each year.

1. Sales achievements are relative to the install base of the console.
2. VG Chartz aren't accurate and can't be trusted.
3. In the end hard numbers are the bottom line but it doesn't mean a title was successful if the expectations were double what it produced.

"3. In the end hard numbers are the bottom line but it doesn't mean a title was successful if the expectations were double what it produced."

thats basically the point I was getting at.... Nintendo isn't happy with those number on Wii Music even with them being as good as they are...they wanted more and most likely expect Wii Sports Resort to be a Beast as well...

(using vgchartz figures provided by levi)

" A Title having "Wii" in the name doesnt mean it will sell. Look @ Wii Music "

how would 2.5 million or even 2 million copies sold be considered it didnt sell well??

what is 100,000 copies of mad world and chinatown wars(ds) considered then ?

of course nintendo wanted to sell 10 million copies of wiimusic, but you dont think they are still happy selling 2 million copies of wii music... ??

you realize they probably still turned a NICE profit on the individual game venture if they sold 2 million copies ?
its not like this game had a production cost similar to MGS4 or anything...
how can you not be happy with making money and profit?
it doesnt make sense to me. yes greed and want to have more always set in, but i dont think they are stressing out or any bit mad with the sales of wiimusic.

who should be mad and stressed is rockstar and sega... they just lost millions and millions of dollars and probably will never recover them.

Please stop caring about this man.

Of all the video game analysts out there, he's the most accurate. He's right about 50% of the time, which doesn't seem impressive until you remember that most situations have more than two possible outcomes.

Even still, he might as well work for the Psychic Friends Network.

I really don't understand why these people are given the credence they are. Is it because they're paying attention to our industry? Does it then give us the feeling that we have some legitimacy when someone gets paid to look at figures and make predictions rather than doing it as a hobby, like all of us do?

Maybe I'm just jaded, but I read a lot of different gaming news sites, from hobbyist level on up to development. The information I glean from my daily feeds tells me that Mr. Pachter reads the same feeds that I do, gets the same information I do, and gets massive amount of exposure because he gets paid to do it.

All it is, really, is counting cards in blackjack.

Um has anyone else thought that maybe people have been saving up their money during this month to get a DSi? I mean, the DSi released RIGHT after the end of March, so with this economy, it would make sense that people would be holding back on buying other things like a Wii, Wii accessories, etc. in exchange for getting a DSi. I'm betting that the Wii will bounce right back in a couple of months.

Its the end of the world as we know it..... and I feel fine.

What is that little box that would plug into the Wiimote on the right? And although the one on the left has it on already, is that plastic thing a 3rd party case or is it suck on like that?

I don't care much for Wii peripherals.

wii motion plus.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii_Motion_Plus#Wii_MotionPlus

Wii remote cover
http://www.nintendo.com/consumer/jacket/jacketrequest.jsp

general responses

Pachter says PS3 needs a price cut: "OMG HE IS SUCH A HACK WHY DO PEOPLE PAY HIM?!?!?"

Pacther says now that everyone owns a Wii, they won't feel the need to buy a second:"HES SAYING WHAT EVERYONE IS THINKING!!!"

nah man. We all know the PS3 needs a price drop but it isn't possible right now. I think most people here are taking what he said and running with it. What he said wasn't all doom and gloom or anything like that.

Gamers are accustomed to the $50 price tag of most games. However, the new market nintendo is going towards are people who invest in one device and expect its entertainment in one bundle. People that find $15 for a dvd still too much to pay. They aren't going to look at games and say I need alot of entertainment, they are goiing to see investment and risk. Take Wii brain academy, that had a $50 starting price, and I don't know many people who wanted to take a dip. It was one of those games that should have at $20, maybe $30 starting price. But, I suppose we'll see with Resort.

It was inevitable that Wii sales would someday decline. I think they've been overly high for a while, probably due to curiosity, great marketing, nostalgia, and because the hardware itself was hard to find which oddly enough helped spur additional sales. But in the end, the titles which sell the best, mostly come from Nintendo, and most of them were from last year or earlier. Nintendo is having to continue to innovate, introduce hardware add-ons, or rely on known strong brands to keep momentum. Meanwhile, third parties have had some success, but not to the same degree as on the 360 or PS3.

There can only be so many Wiis out there, and I think we're finally seeing critical mass. Most people that want a Wii, have one. Sales will continue to do well, but not at the same rate as in the past now that it's more easily available. It was something that was just inevitable.

I've mentioned this in the past, Nintendo is not doing anyone any favors with allowing anyone to release anything they want for the Wii. In the long run, that's going to hurt them as people become more choosey about what they buy, especially with the economy not doing well.

I'll say up front that I'm a big Nintendo fan. I loved the Gamecube the most out of the other two systems, and Nintendo has ALWAYS surprised me with the level of quality they put into their games.

However, the Wii has been a disappointment. Looking at the Wii software I see at Gamestop, Wal-Mart, Target, etc... it's sad. I'm not dismissing the Nintendo titles, they are still great, nor am I writing off games like No More Heroes or Madworld, even if those two games are used so often it plays to the weaknesses of the library rather than any strength.

Most of the stuff on shelves for the Wii is absolute garbage. Wii Sports and the the new controller might get new people to buy systems, but these new people may well end up buying some of this crap the Wii is flooded with and lose interest in gaming beyond the safety of Wii Sports. I don't think this is going to help gaming in the long run. If anything, it could alienate these new gamers from a new console. I know Nintendo has lost a lot of it's fan loyalty this generation.

Wii sales are going to decline in comparison to last year as long as they keep not releasing A titles.

1. Video Game Analysts are usually full of crap and have no skill at their useless job.

2. The Wii is shovelware heaven. If you want a crap game, you'll have no problem finding one for the Wii.

3. Good games on the Wii, however, are few and far between. Thus the slow sales.

4. Really; Video Game Analysts are useless schmucks. Stop giving them credit for making educated guesses. We can ALL do that.

the Wii is .....for a lack of better word....sucks.

So you're saying "The Wii is sucks".

Eloquent, with a touch of retarded. I like it.

I'm put in an awkward position here. I want to support Nintendo, since they were responsible for large chunks of my childhood, and I know they're capable of making transcendental gaming experiences when they put forth the effort. I don't even mind that they're reaching out to new customers whose tastes may not necessarily reflect my own. However, their success has made them uncomfortably complacent. They're putting minimal effort into their own software, and doing almost nothing to police the quality of third party titles.

Put aside the shortcomings of the Wii hardware, the marketing to soccer moms, and the gimmicky controllers for a minute... the system's abysmal software library is by a wide margin its greatest weakness. When games for a next generation system seem like a step back from the system that came before it, you know that there are some serious issues that desperately need to be addressed. Nintendo, you can do better than this. Please don't wait until the competition blows past you to turn things around

I agree that the wii is a bit underpowered and that third party software on the system is of low quality (until now), but calling the wiimote "gimmicky" is just SO wrong.
Its the best thing to happen to console gaming in a long time and WM+ will make it even better. Implemented in the right way it is more precise, faster and more involving than a gamepad (Re4, MP3) and is a basis for the way forward for console controls technology.

Previous 50 Comments

Pachter calls March Wii console sales 'somewhat disconcerting'

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