Analyst: Next console cycle isn't coming until 2013
by Griffin McElroy 
{ May 2nd 2009 at 7:00PM } 
Pachter said that publishers would be hesitant to adopt new hardware considering their investments in the current console cycle have yet to adequately pay off. There's one exception -- Pachter expects the oft-rumored high-definition Wii may appear some time in 2010.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
Inect @ May 2nd 2009 7:05PM
so the HD wii won't be considered apart of the next gen either.
Jack Spicer @ May 2nd 2009 7:30PM
That depends on how you look at it. If adding HD components makes it next gen, then the original 360 was last gen and came into this gen when it added HDMI out. I think the 360 is a box of crap, the new ones are re-enforced boxes of crap.
Inect @ May 2nd 2009 8:27PM
Jack the 360 was capable of 720p and 1080i so it was always HD. Also even though the HDMI was add in the gaming perspective there still are not many games that do 1080p so its not like the HDMI makes that much of a difference.
Kenny Powers Fastball (PSN johnnynumber5) @ May 2nd 2009 9:24PM
I replied to you in my original comment a few below this one. Check it out for an explanation of why the Wii HD wouldn't be next gen.
DeepFriedSushi @ May 3rd 2009 2:10AM
@Jack Spicer
you're such a cancer to the industry people like you make me sick.
TheFuzz @ May 6th 2009 8:57AM
Well they are going to have to step it up. With products like PlayOn that now let you get half the TV you been watching and soon to be more on you PS3 and Xbox360. Sites like thefuzznetwork.com are taking full advantage of this. If Wii does't get off their butts they are going to fall behind. You will soon see Xbox and PS3 pick up the slack on the coolness of the Wii remote. Then Nintendo will fall behind. You can now get everything from Hulu, CBS, YouTube, The Food Network, HGTV, Podcasts, NFL Highlights, NBA Highlights and more through PlayOn. Everyone is going to have the Xbox 360 or PS3 in their living rooms.
Orrochan @ May 22nd 2009 7:56PM
Look, the fact that the Wii is not a "console" in the traditional sense is obvious. All you have to do is play the damn thing to see that it is a waggle controller with a life support system, not to mention the fact it has the hardware that doesn't really even outclass an XBOX 1 or PS2.
but guess what, nobody gives a shit. Sometimes you want a gimmick, some times you don't need some epic RPG or the most sophisticated and challenging FPS on the market. Sometimes you just want to get drunk with your friends and play a bowling sim with a glorified dreamcast fishing controller. And from the looks of it, more people want to buy a gimmick than a "console", so Nintendo really doesn't need it to compete with anything else when you get right down to it.
I Al2x I @ May 2nd 2009 7:11PM
Honestly the only console I can see lasting that long is the PS3. If Microsoft is able to finally dissolve out all RROD-prone 360's, then maybe they have a shot, but the PlayStation 3 just has many exclusive developers that always churn triple-A games out.
btw, this is coming from a person who owns a PS3 and 360, and plays the 360 currently 70% to 30% PS3 time.
The Wii? Sorry, I can barely see the system lasting until 2010. Seriously, the novelty will wear off.
MarkHawk @ May 2nd 2009 7:17PM
The thing that worries me about a 10 year life with the PS3 is how it updates itself and is hard to make changes to its "core".
Joystiq has discussed on their podcast on how they didn't expect to see features similar to the 360 because of this limitation. It just puts most of the focus on the developers to make up for the lack of built in features.
That said, the PS3 hardware should last around 10+ years. I'd go as far to say we'll see software for the next 15 and a hardware lifespan of 25.
esposch @ May 2nd 2009 7:55PM
Jesus Christ!
How hard is it to get into your heads that the Wii is a Console and not a waggle powered sports game!
esposch @ May 2nd 2009 7:57PM
BTW:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTnZhXgbVbk&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fpictureisunrelated%2Ecom%2Fpage%2F3%2F&feature=player_embedded
Johnathan @ May 2nd 2009 8:09PM
They certainly haven't demonstrated it yet. "Hey! Wave the remote like a jackass and something dumb happens in the latest Casual WiiWare Game we pinched off!"
In my experience, you're better off playing Super Paper Mario or Metroid Prime 3 at your sucker friend's house, than buying $250 worth of gimmick. I would know, I'm that friend.
why not the LS2LS7? @ May 2nd 2009 8:17PM
Why do people misunderstand this 10 year life thing?
It will be around for 10 years, like PS2 (so says Sony). They don't mean that there won't be a newer console to take the fore after the usual 5 years (like the PS2 did to the PS1 and the PS3 to the PS2).
esposch @ May 2nd 2009 8:23PM
In my opinion, you're better off not going to your 360 owning friends house and playing COD4, Gears, GTA4, Halo or Fallout 3. Instead you could stay home and play Metroid Prime 3 and Paper Mario. So what's your point?
Mana37 @ May 2nd 2009 9:08PM
Wii HD... you can keep that shit, Nintendo!!!!
Worst $273 dollars (w/ tax) I ever spent.
Mr Khan @ May 2nd 2009 10:59PM
Ahh, a dinosaur with a dinosaur's opinion.
Quaint.
esposch @ May 3rd 2009 12:24AM
This, Hinkle, is why NintendoWiiFanboy should have stayed NintendoWiiFanboy, and not become Joystiq Nintendo.
This bullshit wasn't there back when we were a COMMUNITY! I hate it how Xbox owners can't accept the Wii as an actual console just because it has shovelware. Shovelware has been on EVERY SINGLE winning console in history. Why should the Wii magically change this?
The Wii is less of a gimmick than the 360. Feel free to share your opinions
ArchGamer @ May 3rd 2009 1:22AM
@esposch
The 360 isn't a gimmick; its trash, get it right darn it.
esposch @ May 3rd 2009 1:42AM
@ Archgamer
Ooooooooooh!
BTW: "Where's the original games? That's the surprise! XBOX SURPRISE"
ArchGamer @ May 3rd 2009 1:48AM
@esposch
Wait?! Xbox doesn't have original games?! Gasp!
esposch @ May 3rd 2009 1:56AM
@ Archgamer:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=pickle+surprise
Read that then watch the video again. And yes, it does, but not many.
amart @ May 3rd 2009 2:01AM
esposch .. is just a sad, sad individual.
ArchGamer @ May 3rd 2009 2:02AM
@esposch
"The Crying Game" anyone?
PS I know, I was just begin a typical Wii/PS3 fanboy. :)
esposch @ May 3rd 2009 2:44AM
Yes amart, yes I am. But read eveyone else's comments (and how they voted). I am only telling them what they want to hear.
ArchGamer @ May 3rd 2009 2:48AM
@ esposch
I really doubt anyone one of us want to hear about Pickle Surprise. :)
esposch @ May 3rd 2009 3:05AM
@ Arch Gamer.
Yes you do. Click here BTW:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1gLP9CMnWo&feature=related
ArchGamer @ May 3rd 2009 3:21AM
@esposch
Stop getting in my head!!!!!!AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHH!!!
...Funny though.
esposch @ May 3rd 2009 3:26AM
@ Arch Gamer
Not Pickle surprise, but still fucked up!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6gT-J8kfpo&feature=related
ArchGamer @ May 3rd 2009 3:30AM
@esposch
Oh Biz Markie, how the mighty have fallen.
PS How the fuck did come across these vids!
esposch @ May 3rd 2009 5:49AM
@ Arch Gamer.
One I got by Following links on Failblog, and the other I saw live on TV. It's from thsi show called Yo Gabba Gabba which is basically Teletubbies on crack. Yes, you read that right. Teletubbies. On Crack.
nick @ May 3rd 2009 12:38PM
I cringe everytime Pachter is quoted with the impression that he's some sort of expert. He seems to be right only half the time, and the times he's right he's merely quoting the obvious. He tends to be optimistic towards Sony, so much so that he completely missed Nintendo dominance of the market. Only after Nintendo had a huge lead, did he finally acknowldge their popularity.
His quote about the next generation appearing (and I'm paraphrasing) 'not until 2013... if at all' seems to playing into Sony-speak. There's no doubt in my mind we won't see another generation Sony console until 2012 or later, however I don't believe Nintendo or Microsoft have to play by that same rule. In fact, I think it's highly likely both will introduce their next generation before Sony. And believe me, there will be another generation. No one is going to kill of this revenue stream. And innovation will continue. But I have to believe Nintendo and Microsoft won't sit idle as to allow Sony to 'catch up' although I'm sure Sony would love for that to happen. Sony is going to have to have to release a game changer with mass appeal, that's economical. This is a good thing as it's keeps competition alive.
As far as (and I'm paraphrasing again) 'publishers resisting new hardware' is completely ludicrous. I think developers will have tools that will allow them to utilize what they know, while being able to exploit new features.
And lastly, his confidence that consumers will return to retail stores, I think is optimism. I don't believe anyone is insulated from the economy. Gamers will always gravitate towards the major releases, but I think they will be choosey about the lessor releases while the ecomony is in a slump.
Cj @ May 2nd 2009 7:11PM
Sounds good to me. I just resent MS for making Xbox 360 run off of DVDs. Its still my fav console though.
DeepFriedSushi @ May 3rd 2009 2:17AM
it was because xbox came out before blu-ray became standard, at that moment hd-dvd did seem to even. just the fact that ms was clairvoyant enough to make a multicore console and fit it with a graphics card which is even higher performance than the ps3 is quite a feat. thats the thing with going first there isnt a model of success to follow like psn did with live.
i do wonder how things would be different had 360 came with a hd-dvd drive standard, possibly blu-ray may have been scrapped and prevented piracy on 360.
Cj @ May 3rd 2009 9:41AM
Why was I voted down? I love my 360. Im just upset that MS didnt predict that DVDs would limit some games. I don't mind switching disks but for sandbox games that would ruin it.
The Baron @ May 3rd 2009 3:14PM
DVDs are big enough for 99% of games, and putting a BR or HDDVD drive in the console itself would have easily put another $150 on the price of the console back in 2005.
MarkHawk @ May 2nd 2009 7:13PM
I was expecting something similar. I love my 360 but I feel an updated version would be nice. I just don't think it was planned to last 8 years.
Of course I expect Handhelds to update themselves soon. How long can we keep accepting the re-release of a handheld? We have 3 DS's and 2 PSPs (provided the "Go edition is true). 2011/12 perhaps?
The iPhone and Zune HD I expect to last the longest. Im excited for the Zune HD since I know nothing about it but I do hope it some how integrates with the XBLA or a similar Marketplace system. Maybe a Zune Game Pass. That would be amazing. iPhone will just continue update itself with new features and battery life. I wonder if games will keep becoming version exclusives since the iPhone updates yearly.
Moptimus Slime (Ziggy played Guitar Hero, but not Smash Hits) @ May 2nd 2009 7:25PM
you mean 4 PSPs, right? Then the rumored "Go" and "PSP2"
Noshino @ May 2nd 2009 7:53PM
To be fair, handheld revisions are common, hell, both the Game Boy and the Game Boy Advance lines had 4 or more "re-releases", and that's without counting the changes that haven't been reported.
Moptimus Slime (Ziggy played Guitar Hero, but not Smash Hits) @ May 2nd 2009 8:38PM
4? I can only remember 3.
Gameboy
Gameboy Pocket
Gameboy Color
then
GBA
GBA SP
GBA Micro
esposch @ May 2nd 2009 8:45PM
No, I refuse to agree with you. The GBC was not a revision.
But there was a backlit Game Boy in Japan.
Noshino @ May 2nd 2009 8:56PM
Game Boy:
Original
Play it Loud
Pocket
Light
Color
GBA:
Original
SP
SP +
Micro
and like I said, that's without counting the multiple revisions that Nintendo devices tend to go through that most often go unreported (for example, the Wii has had over 2 revisions already)
Dragod @ May 2nd 2009 9:13PM
I contend that the GameBoy and GameBoy Color are two totally different systems. GBA, GBASP, and GBAMicro all could play GBA games. GBC could play GameBoy and GameBoy Color games.
The gameboy color is also able to play gameboy games, but if you want to say that because of that GBC is just another GB, then I say that the GBA and GBASP are both GB rereleases.
Dragod @ May 2nd 2009 9:15PM
Woops, forgot to add that the GB couldn't play GBC games, which is the reasoning why I say GB =/= GBC.
esposch @ May 2nd 2009 9:48PM
The SP+ wasn't a new console. By that logic, the Wii has had about 5 different versions out now: D2E, D2B, D2C, D2C2 and D2nothing. Plus the different strains of Boot1...
Or you could say the Black Gamecube was a different system if you are reading this and have no clue about Wii drives and Boot1. :)
Noshino @ May 2nd 2009 9:56PM
Dragod,
Yes and No.
The GameBoy Color was a big upgrade, from the addition of color, to the power boost, but it kept the same form factor. The most noticeable upgrade was just, well, color.
Unlike it, the GBA was a complete overhaul, from power, to the shape and controls. And before you mention the SP, its hardware, outside of the updated shape, was pretty much the same, they even had the same processor. Which is pretty much the same that happened between the DS Phat and Lite, and one way or the other, the DSi as well.
Noshino @ May 2nd 2009 9:59PM
No one said that it was a new console, I said that it was a revision, a "re-release"
esposch @ May 2nd 2009 10:17PM
but the SP+ just had a different backlight...
Hell, the Pokemon edition GBC changed more.
And one thing: if the GBC is a new console, so is the DSi. It has upgraded hardware (like the difference between Gamecube and Wii), just no games that utilise it... Yet.
Noshino @ May 2nd 2009 10:21PM
Sigh
I didn't say that the GBC was a new console either...Dragod did, which I went ahead and mentioned why it isn't considered to be one.
esposch @ May 3rd 2009 12:34AM
Noshino, I was saying the GBC was a new console too. And the DSi is as well. Hoever, let's just see whether or not it fails, ie. will companies make DSi eclusive games? Hopefully the DSi isn't Nintendo's next-gen handheld, though, or I will rip out a gundam.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgWn7zbgxZ4
Noshino @ May 3rd 2009 11:40AM
No, both the DSi and the GBC are not really much more than a revision, or mind you, a re-release.
Like I said, most of the upgrades were under the hood, even with the DSi including accessories and GBC bring in color games.
Once again, for it to be a new line, it has to have an upgrade on both the shape and the hardware as well. Both of these didn't happen with the DSi nor the GBC, that's why they are only considered revisions, or just re-releases.