Pachter: Project Natal and PlayStation Motion Controller won't topple Wii
by David Hinkle 
{ Jun 8th 2009 at 2:00PM } 
"We do not expect either to displace Nintendo's Wii from its leadership position," Pachter said. He went on further to say that Microsoft's Natal is really only aimed toward interface improvement, and that Sony's new controller is simply "Wii-nis envy," justifying his company's opinion that the Wii will still be the top console for a long time. We're inclined to agree, mostly because Sony and Microsoft's new products won't be on store shelves for quite some time.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
tmacairjordan87 @ Jun 8th 2009 2:04PM
I wonder how long pachter sat around and pondered this bold prediction...
uncle jesse @ Jun 8th 2009 2:57PM
Probably the same amount of time it took him to come up with "Wii-nis envy"
Dummy00001 @ Jun 8th 2009 3:14PM
Somebody ring him up and tell that nobody ****ing want to topple anything.
All we want are better controls for our games.
P.S. In that sense Natal is huge disappointment to me as I was holding xbox purchase waiting for MS to release FPS controller. Tough luck.
TruthBringer @ Jun 8th 2009 3:26PM
That's why I call Pachter Captain Obvious. If he gets paid for this BS, I want his job. His predictions could be predicted by a two-year-old kid.
Rumor of Boz @ Jun 8th 2009 3:56PM
Shouldn;t take long to state the obvious. Because as cool as Natal is(an MUCH lesser extent Sony's motion/camera) they are still at least a year off and Wii is already here with tens of millions of existing users. Natal needs peopel who already bought a 360 go then go and buy this peripheral 4+ years into the consoles life....I just don't see it catching on until it is available day one (like as a packin on Xbox3?). Nintendo won this generation...nothing is gonan change that. Next time...its anybody's game.
blunted666 @ Jun 8th 2009 4:44PM
@Boz... I'd say it's still too early to say Nintendo won the generation. Certainly they're not going to LOSE money this time out, but let's say the generation goes 9 years like the PS2. I'd say in 2 to 3 years, as the economy (hopefully) rebounds, we'll see average families venturing into the realm of HD televisions (sorry fanboys, your parents are just wealthy, this is not the American norm) and gain interest in Blue Ray (which is currently reserved for yuppies mostly). Also the PS3 price will drop to affordability, the XBOX price will drop to tantalizingly tempting for the average family, and the Wii will show its age hardware-wise. This is not a Wii-bash, I love my Wii, but I wouldn't exactly count the other 2 out. Lots of boxing matches are won in the latter rounds.
stormtrooper190 PSN= (im not telling you that) @ Jun 9th 2009 3:48PM
@ Dummy00001:
i agree 100% with you. to meny xbox fanboys voting you down.
MaliceMajorE15 @ Jun 8th 2009 2:04PM
BAKA! Like i care what that bias fool has to say
CzAr @ Jun 8th 2009 2:05PM
Sony's motion controller is next year. Not that long of wait considering most games announced at E3 are 2010.
Roto13 @ Jun 8th 2009 3:51PM
"To everybody else: comprehesion FAIL. Since the baseline Xbox costs $180, there is no chance that the standalone Natal could cost more than that, since it would then be cheaper to buy a new Xbox + Natal than Natal by itself? You might be certifiably dumb if you think it's going to be $200."
You seriously have no idea what's going on, do you?
Roto13 @ Jun 8th 2009 3:54PM
Why is my comment over here?
David Hinkle @ Jun 8th 2009 3:59PM
But, it's a long wait in days. Also in minutes, months, and hours! :P
Spartan_458 @ Jun 8th 2009 4:17PM
Chances are, even if it cost them $200, they'd eat the difference and sell it for $100. Microsoft is notorious for burning through cash on something they really want to get to the market. Look at the Xbox. It only just recently starting turning a profit. Since Natal almost qualifies as a sort of Xbox 360.5, I'd say it'd be a reasonable course of action. They make so much cash from Windows and Office that they can easily afford to do this.
Adolph @ Jun 8th 2009 2:07PM
How much is Project Natal or Playstation Wand ??
Lets assume $100 each.
I think you will need a harddrive for that.
For 360
So $299.99 plus $100 for natal =$400
Or PS3
$399.99 plus $100 = $500
or Wii
$250
I think Pachter is right .
InFaMoUs1- @ Jun 8th 2009 2:22PM
Yes because Natal is really going to be $100 -_-'
Roto13 @ Jun 8th 2009 2:23PM
Oh, it's going to be much more than that.
BananaBoat @ Jun 8th 2009 2:25PM
Why would you need a hard drive to use a camera peripheral? That doesn't make any sense.
If it's 200 for the cheapest 360, they could aggressively price Natal at around 50 dollars and basically have a Wii-esque solution for the exact same price as a Wii. I'd be shocked if Natal actually hit the 100 dollar+ mark, and I think it would be a huge mistake on Microsoft's part. Heck, they could bundle Natal with the Arcade version and make up the losses through Natal software sales.
I agree with the Pach attack's no-brainer prediction that the Wii has nothing to fear from Natal or the PS Motion Controller though.
Brian @ Jun 8th 2009 2:26PM
Your pricing fails, Badly.
Kenny Powers Fastball (PSN johnnynumber5) @ Jun 8th 2009 2:29PM
Adolph
You would also need to add the price of motion plus into the wii-quation. By the time you get an extra fully funtioning wii setup (wii-mote, nun chuck, classic controller & motion plus + additional motion plus and classic controller) you are at a pretty hefty premium yourself. Let's just forget about the fact that wii speak even exists because it should've never existed in the first place.
Adolph @ Jun 8th 2009 2:38PM
how much does Microsoft sell harddrives for ?
How much does Sony sell PSP GO for ?
oh yeah WAY TO MUCH.
$100 for Natal, and PS3 wand are very conservative estimates to say the least.
InFaMoUs1- @ Jun 8th 2009 2:42PM
@Adolph
"$100 for Natal, and PS3 wand are very conservative estimates to say the least."
Your a dumbass just go before your make a bigger fool out of yourself..
Markez @ Jun 8th 2009 2:43PM
Wow, Infamous, helluva fail there.
finaldarklord @ Jun 8th 2009 2:44PM
"Your a dumbass"
I lol'd
aristokrat @ Jun 8th 2009 2:50PM
Um, didn't Microsoft say that once it was done, Natal would ship with ALL new Xbox's? Now, I could be incorrect, but that would mean $0 extra for Natal if you are one of the NEW people that MS is hoping to attract with this peripheral.
Vidikron @ Jun 8th 2009 2:50PM
@inFaMoUs1
I don't think $100 is a crazy prediction for Natal. You have to remember that it will be a one time purchase that will then handle motion and voice controls for multiple users. It's not like the Wii where you have to buy a Wiimote + Nunchuck + WM Plus for every controller (to have a "complete" controller). I will say that I'd be surprised if they actually sold it for the rumored $200 price tag. I think that would ensure its failure.
Chad Vanderbilt (Moptimus in Disguise) @ Jun 8th 2009 2:51PM
they said the tech for Natal is compatible with all new and existing Xbox's
Vidikron @ Jun 8th 2009 2:54PM
@Adolph
You comparison is a bit unfair, at least as far as Natal goes. For the Wii you now have to buy a WM+ to have one complete controller... and that will only be for a single user. Natal will handle input from multiple users. For the Wii it's basically $80 per user for a new complete controller.
Gamertag: GOPAL892005 @ Jun 8th 2009 3:03PM
@ aristokrat
You are correct - they said it at the E3 Press Briefing.
Microsoft WILL ship Natal with every NEW XBOX 360 console they sell after the launch of Natal.
Chad Vanderbilt (Moptimus in Disguise) @ Jun 8th 2009 3:05PM
Can Natal differentiate between 2 or more people based on appearance/position? thats one thing I could see being a problem is you invite a friend over and try to play a game together but it cant tell the difference between you two so it just shits its pants and explodes.
InFaMoUs1- @ Jun 8th 2009 3:06PM
I just dont think in it is any way possible for MS to put Natal on the market for $100.
Most of the features MS showed at e3 were focused towards a more casual gaming family. With most families already having a Wii a $100 price point might scare them away for a stand alone accessory.
Mr Khan @ Jun 8th 2009 3:10PM
Current estimates put Natal at $200, though doubtless that will probably go down by launch
Prof_Chaos @ Jun 8th 2009 3:23PM
As much as I hop Natal is less than $100, I doubt it. The goddamn Wifi adapter is $100 and that's hardly got the R&D costs that Natal has.
Snowblind @ Jun 8th 2009 3:28PM
Microsoft want Natal to hit the casual market. They're happy enough to make their HDD's, etc, expensive because people will buy them anyway. But if they want to get that casual market the thing is going to have to be pretty cheap. Any more than $100 and I don't see it making any sort of inpact.
And MS aren't that stupid, they're going to be throwing these things at us, with as many bundles as they can squeeze out.
Roto13 @ Jun 8th 2009 3:45PM
Well now I can't wait for the actual price of the Natal to be announced. :P I'm gonna totally link to this thread if it's like $150 - $200.
aristokrat @ Jun 8th 2009 3:48PM
Gamertag, thanks for backing me up on that one, since I watched that thing live and was completely sure that's what they said. I felt like I was taking crazy pills there for a bit, though the continued bickering makes me feel like maybe I do have some crazy pills, but they are half strength.
To everybody else: comprehesion FAIL. Since the baseline Xbox costs $180, there is no chance that the standalone Natal could cost more than that, since it would then be cheaper to buy a new Xbox + Natal than Natal by itself? You might be certifiably dumb if you think it's going to be $200.
Here's my prediction: it'll be like the Vision camera, $60-70 with 1 year of Xbox Live Gold included. It doesn't look like it's much more complex than the Vision camera (just an extra IR sensor basically), and they'll eat the R&D to get it out there because otherwise it'll just sit on the shelves. The brilliant part of that idea? This will entice the 'hard-core' to buy it because they have to get Live anyway.
Duke @ Jun 8th 2009 4:46PM
"To everybody else: comprehesion FAIL. Since the baseline Xbox costs $180, there is no chance that the standalone Natal could cost more than that, since it would then be cheaper to buy a new Xbox + Natal than Natal by itself? You might be certifiably dumb if you think it's going to be $200."
I have to agree with you on this. Guys, MS and Sony both have ate a hell of a lot on consoles in the past in order to grab market share, and this is a tool to grab more share and then gain on software sales. If they are going to include it on future 360's as well, then they sure are not going to charge current owners $200 when they could buy a new console instead. Also, when I saw the Lionhead video, I saw there was a gray box on the 360 where the HD sits, is that one variation of the Natal they are testing with it integrated into an HD?
matt2005usaf @ Jun 8th 2009 5:43PM
@Gamertag: GOPAL892005
The XBOX you saw in the MILO/Lionhead video was a Dev Kit. The Xbox is a black with a gray/silver attachment where the HDD would go. Don't know exactly what is in there, but of course there is a HDD in there :)
matt2005usaf @ Jun 8th 2009 5:45PM
^^^WHOOPS!^^^
Actually meant @Duke...
Dashiva @ Jun 9th 2009 12:49PM
Gamertag, Aristo:
In the E3 Keynote, he stated that every new 360 (as well as every existing 360) will ship with Natal compatibility.
Not the camera, the compatibility.
belovedconsole @ Jun 8th 2009 9:31PM
Didn't they say that Natal would be packaged with all 360s, on release? I would guess the 'upgrade' for owners already having 360's is going to be the price of a new game: $60, bundled with some "wii-sports" I mean, "Natal Sports" (not all underwater! whoo!) games.
Sony was asked why they hadn't gone "Natal" and they responded with "Tactile."
Blogs were written about players holding actual controllers in their hands. Sony has done the research and devkits have already been shipped. You'll see Sony "stereo wii" products in spring of 2010, when Natal will be shipping one "Natal Family" package.
If you look at the comments on 360fanboy (something I did recently for the first time in over a year) they were resoundingly negative or 'meh'. Sony got much more respect from their fanbase-- of course, Sony had already researched "hands off" gaming and come back with the resounding answer that players want gaming to be tactile.
CLShortFuse @ Jun 8th 2009 2:08PM
I would love to be able to be to paid to make assumptions.
religiousjedi @ Jun 8th 2009 2:09PM
"Wii-nis envy"
I see watcha did thar Patcher! :D
DigitalTwisted @ Jun 8th 2009 3:00PM
Just wait til Pachter hears about this Patcher fellow muscling in on his turf!
343 Guilty Fart @ Jun 8th 2009 2:10PM
Natal seems like a really neat interface tool, I could see it being used to operate menus, and slow, thought based games (turn-based strategy, Catan/board games, card games), but I don't think I'd want to use it for games that require dexterity, like an FPS.
I think Sony was on to something when they said "people still like buttons".
Jimbotron @ Jun 8th 2009 2:29PM
That is why I doubt that Microsoft won't have a trackable controller for Natal at some point as well. If they did, they'd have the ultimate motion control setup.
Kenny Powers Fastball (PSN johnnynumber5) @ Jun 8th 2009 2:32PM
Jimbotron
It's totally possible but it completely goes against the point of removing the barrier of the controller from gamers which was the entire purpose of Natal in the first place.
The PSEye can head track without those little track balls because it was shown at CES last year.
I don't think most people understand that the core of Natal is software not hardware. It has some hardware advantages over what the PSEye can do but most of it's magic still happens in software not hardware.
Mr Khan @ Jun 8th 2009 3:14PM
Natal is the spiritual successor to Surface.
Snowblind @ Jun 8th 2009 3:32PM
They want to remove the barrier for non gamers.. I don't think it's a huge problem if "real" games integrate some of Natal's properties while still keeping the standard controller.
I'd be happy enough just playing a game like Halo, and using your arms to open doors, and climb ladders, etc. Or handing items to characters in RPG's, etc.
MystileArmor @ Jun 8th 2009 2:11PM
Michael Pachter should write a book about how to be succesfull stating obvious facts. I bet the catch is you have to eat the souls of a 1000 nuns or something, but still.....
Markez @ Jun 8th 2009 2:24PM
Not *as* full as the profile I see when logged in, but when you've built a respectable enough resume for yourself you can do just about any half-ass job you want.
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/michael-pachter/0/aa8/582