Pachter: Wii price drop coming before the holiday

by Jem Alexander { Jun 14th 2009 at 6:00PM }

Michael Pachter loves low prices. First he does flip floppings around the PSP Go's price and now he's predicting a Wii price drop later this year. He notes that "Wii supply has finally exceeded demand," and that he "expect[s] Nintendo to cut the price of the Wii before [the] holiday." If true, this would be the first price drop since the Wii's release in late 2006.

Alternatively, Nintendo could simply bundle the system with software in order to persuade people to buy the system. Wii Sports was a good enough selling point back in ought-six, so why not a Wii, Wii Sports Resort and Wii MotionPlus bundle? Still, Pachter's pretty well known around these parts, so he's bound to be right. Who knows, maybe the price drop will arrive just in time for the Wii HD announcement, right Michael?

Tags: michael-pachter, pachter, pricedrop

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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)

Hoffer @ Jun 14th 2009 6:05PM

Why does everything Patcher says gets posted as a story?

ArchiGamer @ Jun 14th 2009 6:06PM

Because fiction is way better than nonfiction.

Roto13 @ Jun 14th 2009 6:39PM

Because he has a higher rate of accuracy than anyone else in the field. About 60%.

Robobagins @ Jun 14th 2009 6:55PM

You say enough crap and some of it's bound to be right. Say it long enough and the percentage will increase. Especially since some of it is beyond obvious.

PinchoVe @ Jun 14th 2009 7:25PM

Pachter is the Nostradamus of gaming

acme @ Jun 14th 2009 8:11PM

even a broken clock is right twice a day

Mr Khan @ Jun 14th 2009 8:26PM

But i would bet, of that 60%, most of it is "no duh" stuff.

Then there's stuff like this, in the other 40%

Ridgecity @ Jun 14th 2009 9:34PM

because he's a financial analyst made for gamers. How many times can you get something made specially for you??

Wes @ Jun 14th 2009 10:29PM

"You say enough crap and some of it's bound to be right. Say it long enough and the percentage will increase."

Umm no. The percentage will remain the same if your just saying crap. There will be more times your right, but, the percentage of times right to times wrong will balance out to a fixed ratio over time unless the guesser or circumstances change. Depending on the number of variables, the lower the accuracy. Flipping a coin will in the long run average out closer and closer to 50% for example once you flip it enough times. Rolling a 21 sided dice and guessing the outcome will be roughly a 4.8% chance your right over the long run.

If your making educated guesses and become more educated on a field via studying outcomes, financial reports, watching the industry closely for years, watching CEOs, yes your percentage will increase. If Pachter, can avoid emotional attachments that persuade fanboys to the darkside and use reason/logic/experience, his predictions will only get better over time. Just saying crap and rolling the dice again to see if your right, won't increase the percentage over time. I'm not sure where you got that idea from.

samfish @ Jun 14th 2009 11:33PM

Pachter has a really good track record when it comes to predicting NPD numbers. The rest of what he predicts is really hit 'n' miss...mostly miss when it comes to Nintendo in particular, though.

Tiptup300 @ Jun 15th 2009 3:23AM

Technically flipping a coin is based on hand movements and air conditions. Extremely minor changes change the overall outcome.

JoeTheBlow @ Jun 15th 2009 6:08AM

I agree, its like now that Jack Thompson is not in the headlines twice per week Joystiq has fixated on this guy and parrots everything he says as news.

Jack was more entertaining though, at least he was partly in the real world (insane as it seems to him) and didn't have a "career" based on guessing and magic 8-balls.

sam @ Jun 15th 2009 7:30AM

@Mr Khan - eh, doesn't seem THAT unlikely. I think Joystiq's guess (new bundle with MotionPlus and Wii Sports Resort) seems *more* likely but if that doesn't happen, it could be time for a price cut.

Depends what happens the rest of the year of course; if sales stay high then I guess not...

Roto13 @ Jun 15th 2009 1:08PM

"Say it long enough and the percentage will increase. "

... You don't really understand statistics at all, do you?

DCMint @ Jun 15th 2009 2:03PM

As an analyst, Pachter does his job, and his job does not include being right about the future. It does happen sometimes, and that's when it happens (by chance) that the system gives him credit (which is overwhelmingly stupid). Being right about something obvious does not count.

And then there's Joystiq who does it's job to forward all the great and the less great info we get here. And Pachter's is actually pretty good. (not as good as right, though).

I love him because he seems to be always wrong like a joke, as if Nintendo always does the exact opposite of what he says.

Patrick @ Jun 15th 2009 5:15PM

"even a broken clock is right twice a day"

Not if it's digital.

Longhorn of Myon [PSN: MariusElijah] @ Jun 14th 2009 6:05PM

I will buy one if its lower than $199

Brendan H @ Jun 14th 2009 6:26PM

Hey, maybe it'll finally be priced at what it's worth.

cuteSAVAGE @ Jun 14th 2009 7:03PM

$206.96 US - Source: http://img30.imageshack.us/img30/760/picture1lzn.png

...sorry :(

Nathew @ Jun 14th 2009 7:36PM

@cutesavage: i lol'd

Olicon @ Jun 14th 2009 8:01PM

Ah, darn.. I was hoping for a $150 price range. $200 is still too pricey for me (especially since it will turn into $300 US by the time I get a hold of it in Aus)

Game_playa @ Jun 14th 2009 10:10PM

@Olicon
Did you even click the link?

sam @ Jun 15th 2009 7:26AM

@cutesavage: lol - great image.

ArchiGamer @ Jun 14th 2009 6:07PM

Why not sell the Monster Hunter 3 bundle here? I'd buy one just to one a black Wii.

yokel @ Jun 14th 2009 6:33PM

same

Reeve @ Jun 14th 2009 8:06PM

Maybe because Monster Hunter isn't as huge here as it is in Japan?

I do love the black Wii, though.

tmacairjordan87 @ Jun 14th 2009 6:09PM

I'd probably buy one if it goes $199 or below. Used/Refurbished of course....I'm sure as hell not giving any of my money to Nintendo.

Shadow El @ Jun 14th 2009 6:24PM

*yawn*

Fail troll is more fail than usual.

tmacairjordan87 @ Jun 14th 2009 6:26PM

mmmk, not sure how that was trolling seeing as that's exactly what I'll do. Surely you're not surprised I won't give any money to nintendo?

Shadow El @ Jun 14th 2009 6:31PM

Since the "as usual" should imply, yeah, I would know that you, being the fiercely anti-Nintendo troll you are, would NEVER give Nintendo, the equivalent to Adolf Hitler, Saddam Hussein, and Satan all rolled into one, your hard-earned cash.

After all, they'd only use it to spawn demons that come to your house and haunt you in your dreams.

xera077 @ Jun 14th 2009 6:36PM

Nintendo isn't evil.

It's Mircosoft! Down with XP and VISTA.

OSX > ALL.

That's Tmac says anyways.

Shadow El @ Jun 14th 2009 6:38PM

Windows 7>>>>>

tmacairjordan87 @ Jun 14th 2009 6:39PM

Yes, I will sleep much easier at night knowing my money is going to Gamestop and not Nintendo and the developers who make wii games. I'm not a hypocrite.

Shadow El @ Jun 14th 2009 6:41PM

So you're going to buy a Wii...but you don't want your money to go to the people that MAKE the Wii?

You're right, you're not a hypocrite. You're just an idiot.

Gun Barrier @ Jun 14th 2009 6:45PM

That money they wont be getting from you is like a penny I didn't pick up off the floor, worthless.

tmacairjordan87 @ Jun 14th 2009 6:45PM

See now you're confusing me. You claim you know how much I dislike Nintendo, yet you don't understand why I wouldn't want my money going to them. I couldn't care less if Nintendo collapsed tomorrow, but the last thing I'm going to do after how much I criticize them is support them.

Chad Vanderbilt (Moptimus in Disguise) @ Jun 14th 2009 6:46PM

"Yes, I will sleep much easier at night knowing my money is going to Gamestop and not Nintendo and the developers who make wii games."

so.....you're never going to buy a new 3rd party game again?

tmacairjordan87 @ Jun 14th 2009 6:47PM

@Gun Barrier

You think I don't know that? It's a personal decision, helps me feel better about getting one if I know that MY money won't reach them.

tmacairjordan87 @ Jun 14th 2009 6:48PM

Not a wii 3rd party game. Their 360 and ps3 games I'll still buy new (well some of them, the good ones)

Shadow El @ Jun 14th 2009 6:50PM

Tmac, I have to ask. What exactly do you have against Nintendo? The way you talk makes it sound as if they've somehow personally harmed you.

You treat Nintendo just a little better than PeTA fanatics treat Kentucky Fried Chicken.

Chad Vanderbilt (Moptimus in Disguise) @ Jun 14th 2009 6:50PM

so you WILL give your money to people who make Wii games?

tmacairjordan87 @ Jun 14th 2009 6:54PM

@Moptimus

Well if you want to stretch it to that, then yes. But that sale will go on their sales sheet as a 360/ps3 purchase, and as we've seen this gen the last thing developers do after selling a 360/ps3 game is "Hmm, let's make a good wii game".

@Shadow El

This right here is more of me backing up what I say. I'm not the kind of person who's going to trash them all the time then turn right around and give them my money. I really dislike what they're doing this gen, and I can live with myself if I play the small handful of games on the Wii I'm mildly interested in if the money goes anywhere else but them. The only other option is modding the console and pirating the games, which I don't do.

Chad Vanderbilt (Moptimus in Disguise) @ Jun 14th 2009 6:57PM

so wait, you're fine and dandy with taking advantage of a flawed system, but when it comes to pirating games YOU'VE GONE TOO FAR MISTER

tmacairjordan87 @ Jun 14th 2009 6:59PM

It may be flawed to us, but Gamestop encourages it. I always hear them telling people stuff like "if it doesn't work or you just hated it you can return it within 7 days". Hell, it's even printed on the damn reciept.

Chad Vanderbilt (Moptimus in Disguise) @ Jun 14th 2009 7:02PM

"...but Gamestop encourages it"

I don't think I've ever heard a Gamestop employee say "If you're just playing this game to get all the achievements/trophies you can return it within 7 days"

tmacairjordan87 @ Jun 14th 2009 7:05PM

And you never heard it from me either. That was a conclusion that you came up with somehow. I never said I was achievement whoring anything, I just said I was renting them from Gamestop cause it's cheaper than Blockbuster.

Chad Vanderbilt (Moptimus in Disguise) @ Jun 14th 2009 7:09PM

I came up with that conclusion because, as we've already established, you are the perfect example of a 360 kid

http://images.encyclopediadramatica.com/images/f/f3/Xbawks2.png

Slaziman @ Jun 14th 2009 7:11PM

I don't get why you guys are bashing tmac this time, he obviously dislikes what Nintendo is doing and doesn't want to be part of the problem. It's like voting, your individual vote is almost 100% surely not going to make a difference, but you still go out and vote for the party you like.

But tmac, don't you see buying used is indirectly benefiting Nintendo? By buying used games or consoles you are expanding the used game or console market, and if people know they can sell it used later on, they are more likely to buy a game or console new, and thus give money to Nintendo.

Tragic eh?

tmacairjordan87 @ Jun 14th 2009 7:13PM

Yup, as I suspected you pulled it out of your ass. I don't care about achievements or trophies. Maybe if they gave me something, even if it was Home shit.

I used to care about the challenge in games, and yes I would brag to my friends when I beat them at a game, but who doesn't do that? I thought trash talking after you beat your friends at something was almost universal