Pachter: WiiHD still coming, Xbox in third by 2015
by David Hinkle 
{ Jun 29th 2009 at 7:15PM } 
First up is Nintendo, a company that Pachter believes will remain in the top spot throughout this console generation. Due to the Wii's "low price point, innovative control mechanism, and compatibility with standard definition televisions." Pachter thinks that Nintendo will rest easy atop the gaming mountain. And he thinks the Wii HD is a big part of it, as Pachter firmly believes Nintendo will introduce a HD-compatible Wii at some point, even as early as next year.
Then there's Sony and its PS3. Pointing to Sony's win in the Blu-ray vs HD DVD war, Pachter says the PS3 will capture "significant market share" through this alone, and says the company will take second place. Regardless, Pachter sees the PS3 and Xbox 360 sharing very similar market share at the conclusion of this generation.
Moving on to Microsoft, Pachter believes the company will end this generation in third, largely due to the console's inability to sell in Japan. Pachter downplays the "losing" angle, however, stating that he believes Microsoft will sell twice as many Xbox 360s as the company did the original Xbox, which, granted it actually happens, would be a nice feather in Microsoft's cap.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
SaltyGary @ Jun 29th 2009 7:18PM
Yea more fanboy fodder.
Cody @ Jun 30th 2009 12:18PM
"Moving on to Microsoft, Pachter believes the company will end this generation in third"
I like this Patcher guy!
smak @ Jun 30th 2009 7:37PM
Yeah. I don't even consider the Wii in the same category as the PS3 or Xbox 360. And it's pretty clear who has won between the latter two. This guy is retarded.
iluvmyzune @ Jun 29th 2009 7:19PM
this guy is so retarded, he makes johnny knoxville actually look like a stuntman
Damian @ Jun 29th 2009 7:20PM
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA
MetalBLACKFOX @ Jun 29th 2009 8:07PM
they actually pay this guy..he be pulling shit out of his ass
Ignatius @ Jun 29th 2009 9:02PM
Didn't he predict the PS3 being the top-seller overall? Good luck with that...
Ridgecity @ Jun 29th 2009 10:19PM
The PS3 is the bestselling bluray player EVER!!! And a great video game console!!!
But, he did predict continuosly that the PS3 was going to take over from the xbox360, and never mentioned the Wii turning out to be the winner until it was fairly obvious for even my grandma...
fffunfarm06 @ Jun 30th 2009 2:58AM
my predictions:
wii hd is indeed nintendos evolution to a family oriented system.
it will take a year and a half for a majority of gamers and console owners to fully embrace microsofts great attempt for social networking. its definitely going to work, but the majority of people arnt gonna buy it for a home computer. yet.
bluray players are already WAY cheaper than a ps3 so getting one for a disc player is retarded. their shares will go down. developers are not going to have enough money and time to turn a profit on making a better looking game than xbox when xbox is making more money in return than a ps3 title. ps3 will not get better unless:
1price goes down, 2user interface gets better, 3and better PR.
natal is a fun new controller than people will buy seperatel
ps3 motion controllers are gonna have to be packed in some game to sell
wii will be collecting dust as people find out it aint all that.
what do you think???
fffunfarm06 @ Jun 30th 2009 3:01AM
ps3 graphics will be as good as xbox 720 graphics in november 2012 when microsofts new system comes out.
Ridgecity @ Jun 30th 2009 3:34AM
nah... Wii already won... maybe the new xbox will shake the world but as it currently stands, nintendo has no competition.
K1LLER HORNET @ Jun 30th 2009 1:03PM
@ fffunfarm06,
yes, that would be true if Microsoft keep the exact same specs as the current 360.
but somehow, i don't see that happening, do you?
add more RAM, newer/better GPU, & more powerful processor, and you will easily outperform the PS3, Fact.
what will be interesting is when both Sony & Microsoft will release their next consoles & what the final specs will be.
- Pachter is really bad at his job imo - he barely gets any of his predictions right.
i find it hard to take anything he says seriously.
dan @ Jul 1st 2009 5:24AM
@ fffunfarm06
WTF @ no 2. have both the 360 and ps3 and compared to the XBM the NXE is complete rubbish. I am starting to get used to it but its nowhere as easy to use and the xbm
I can still remebers when the 360 came out and everone reckoned the games looked nearly the same as normal xbox games, so it actually takes a while for any differences to show between new consoles and old consoles because of the actuall software development to catch up.
chispito @ Jun 29th 2009 7:21PM
Does he mention a PS3 price cut?
Arctrick @ Jun 29th 2009 7:32PM
Does it really matter what he mentions. If it happens, it happens (and I hope it does), and if it dosent, it dosent.
chispito @ Jun 29th 2009 7:44PM
It just seems like if I were to construct any sort of prediction in which the PS3 catches up, it would have to come down in price significantly, and quickly.
The longer it lags, the more luster lost.
SoCoolCurt (PSN: KillaKornbread - XBL: SoCoolCurt) @ Jun 29th 2009 11:28PM
what's it matter? his predictions rarely come to fruition anyway.
Bobs @ Jun 29th 2009 7:22PM
Pachter has been wrong about some things before, and I do agree with some of the things he is saying right now.
The only thing I disagree with is MS ending up in 3rd place. Japan is not ground zero for a console war, North America and Europe are. With MS leading sales in NA on a month to month basis, along with a tug-of-war battle with Sony in Europe; I think MS will stay 2nd.
Especially with the Pro bundle sales that seem to be on almost all the time.
roger @ Jun 29th 2009 8:02PM
Well I thinks he's right because right now the only reason the PS3 is third is because of the U.S. market, and lets face it a TON of people are waiting for the $100 price drop. When that occurs you bet there will be plenty of people in line to buy the PS3 to play its exclusives and/or for an awesome Blu Ray player. If the 3.0 rumors are true your looking at something similar to live only free, user upgradeable HD's and free online will surely hit right. I love the 360, but in all honesty I think is brighter days are behind it and Natal is not enough to jump start buying trends all over again.
Brian @ Jun 30th 2009 5:36AM
roger, what TON of people are waiting for a price drop? People aren’t sitting around any longer for a PS3 price drop. The 360 out sells the PS3 in all markets except for Japan, however, the PS3 is closing gaps. But personally, I think it’s too late and in the end, they may be about the same in total sales. There is market room for all 3 systems. And the “brighter” days you speak of are still here. You aren’t basing that on anything because pulling it out of your butt. I can just as easily say the PS3 has never had a bright day nor it ever will because to me it hasn’t nor ever will. I'm sure one day I will buy one but not any time soon.
tuaamin13 @ Jun 30th 2009 8:25AM
Fudzilla is reporting that the Pro bundle will be phased out (hence the sales), leaving only the Arcade and Elite
http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/14437/1/
stormtrooper190 PSN= (im not telling you that) @ Jun 30th 2009 8:36PM
@ Brian:
in Europe the ps3 out sells the 360 by a LONG shot not only in japan
skyzbig @ Jun 29th 2009 7:22PM
Let's just ignore this attention seeking idiot and go back to playing games.
Dopple Boppler @ Jun 29th 2009 7:33PM
I think you're confused; Michael Pachter =/= Jack Thompson
Luke @ Jun 29th 2009 7:22PM
2015? Okay, thanks. By then, the next generation will have been out for a couple of years and nobody will really care about this generation of consoles. Sure, the PS3 and 360 might still get a few games here and there, but the people who read this site and actually know who Michael Pachter is will be on to bigger and better things.
Pip @ Jun 30th 2009 5:44PM
I love my PS3, but this guy (Pachter) is so full of it.
These consoles wont even be on sale in 2015, the whole next generation will be out in 2011. The 360 will end this generation in second. The fact that developers are still struggling with the PS3, and releasing sub-par releases on it aren't helping, either. (Ghostbusters anyone?)
Blu-Ray players can be bought for $150 now, the PS3 isn't a viable platform any longer since it doesn't do the HD audio over bitstream, so all the videophiles are getting separate players anyways. When you spend a lot of money on a receiver, you don't want the PS3 to do the decoding, you want your receiver to do it. And yes, there is a big difference in audio quality this way.
Old_Snake @ Jun 29th 2009 7:23PM
I am seeing this guy's name popping up a lot lately. Is his track record good or something?
PN04 @ Jun 29th 2009 7:26PM
I've had a better track record and it's not even my job. All he's really doing is telling people what he things they want to hear and trying to stir up a fuss so that people will pay attention to him. When it doesnt happen that way, he'll just come up with excuses as to why it didnt.
Easo @ Jun 30th 2009 12:10AM
Yea, the only time he ever gets anything right is when the thing he is predicting has been leaked all over the internet or when its just plain common sense.
Bobs @ Jun 29th 2009 7:24PM
Unless Sony starts pulling a MS with lowering their price and include more affordable bundles.
As of right now though, if Sony pulls of a price drop right around God of War III and GT5 (whenever it comes out); it is very possible for Sony to catch up or even pull ahead of MS.
PARANOID365 @ Jun 29th 2009 11:45PM
@ Bobs, U U D D L R L R B A SELECT START, roger, etc......
Do you guys not realize that Sony dropping the price of the PS3 isn't going to really make a difference, (at this point), because as soon as Sony finally drops the price of the PS3, (which they really should of done already), Microsoft, (as reported and expected), will drop the price of the Xbox 360, so really the PS3 price drop is a moot point.
Also the next generation is only about 2 years off, (at most), so even if Sony comes close to catching up, (which probably isn't going to happen at this rate), it will already be 2 little 2 late because no one will really care about this generation at that point.
Oh and if Sony really is going to try and keep to their 10 year plan, (ya right), it won't even matter because ya they might of caught up, but then they'll be a generation behind.
There's really no way Sony can turn this around, (at this point), because they have simply waited to long to mount a charge, so what they need to do is just pick themselves up, dust themselves off, learn from their mistakes, and start concentrating on the PS4, (while still fully supporting the PS3).
Chris D.(PSN: Aggie_CEO | XBL:The Aggie CEO | Steam: Aggie_CEO @ Jun 30th 2009 10:28AM
ummmm a 360 Price drop isnt going to entice too many people as MS is hitting its saturation point.....but Sony is STILL a good ways off, especially with it being a BD player as well. Its an ASSLOAD of people just waiting to get a PS3 when the price drops, most of which already own a 360. Hell I've got 15 friends that have said they will get a PS3 as SOON as the price drops and another 4-5 that will get one when God of War 3 comes out
PARANOID365 @ Jun 30th 2009 1:29PM
@ Chris D.(PSN: Aggie_CEO | XBL:The Aggie CEO | Steam: Aggie_CEO,
Are you kidding me ??
There is no way the Xbox 360 has even come close to hitting your so called, "saturation point" !!
The Wii alone has an installed base of 50 million +, (and growing), never mind the fact that the PS2 has an installed base of well over 120 Million +, so to say the Xbox 360 has saturated it's market is ridiculous.
Hell even Nintendo's President, (Mr Satoru Iwata), said during Nintendo's E3 09 confrence that there is roughly 149 million potential, "maybe", gamers, (and that's not counting the over 295 million current gamers), still out there that are thinking about getting into gaming; that's a truly huge untapped market.
Actually if we were to believe your, "so called theory", I guess Microsoft should just stop marketing the Xbox 360 and wait until their ready to release their next system, (since according to you they have already, "saturated", their market).
So again for you to say that the Xbox 360 has saturated it's market is uderly rediculous, and really sounds a lot like Sony fanboyism.
As to your friends that you mentioned, if the 15 were truly serious, and really wanted a PS3 that bad, they could easily sell their 360's and buy a PS3, so obviously they aren't that serious about getting a PS3.
Now as to the other 4 or 5 friends that you mentioned, what are they going to do once they buy a PS3 and beat God of War 3, (since you said that's the # 1 reason why their going to buy it)?? I suspect that these 4 or 5 friends again are truly not serious about getting a PS3 because if their not happy enough with the PS3's catalog now, to make a purchase, their really not going to have much to play once they beat GOW 3.
ryking19 @ Jun 30th 2009 1:49PM
@Paranoid
You're as good an analyst as Michael Pachter. WTH do you know about consumerism or Aggie's 15 friends and the their future purchases. If they do or do not buy a PS3 what the hell does it matter, don't try to analyze every scenario as if you know their lives or purchasing preferences.
Everyone is bitching about PS3 price drop like there is no chance in hell they save an extra $100-$200 to buy one over another console. It's gone on too long that I wish they would do it just so that everyone would just STFU.
I am happy with my 2 PS3's and 360. It's not that expensive, I have 2 PS3's and all you broke asses need to stop complaining becuase you obviously don't make much less than I do.
I will not buy a Wii becuase I already work a minimum of 8 hours a day and don't need that shit.
PARANOID365 @ Jun 30th 2009 2:17PM
@ ryking19,
1st of all I wasn't analyzing shit, I was making light of the classic, "Sony fanboy woulda, coulda, shoulda, you just wait, phenomenon.
Like I said if they truly wanted to purchase a PS3 there are many ways they could go about doing so, but just like a lot of other, "fence sitters", they have a lot of doubts and that's what's preventing their purchase.
Quote:
"Everyone is bitching about PS3 price drop like there is no chance in hell they save an extra $100-$200 to buy one over another console. It's gone on too long that I wish they would do it just so that everyone would just STFU".
"I am happy with my 2 PS3's and 360. It's not that expensive, I have 2 PS3's and all you broke asses need to stop complaining because you obviously don't make much less than I do".
You just reiterated my point, so how could you possibly have any issue with my statements !!
B3astofthe3ast @ Jun 29th 2009 7:24PM
I don't know if the PS3 can catch up...
U U D D L R L R B A SELECT START @ Jun 29th 2009 7:31PM
There is currently a 8 million unit gap between sales of Xbox and PS3. As the Xbox came out a year earlier I think it would be realistically possible for PS3 to catch up.
roger @ Jun 29th 2009 8:04PM
I've stated a few posts above but that gap is really because of the U.S. market and that should pickup drastically with the price drop.
PN04 @ Jun 29th 2009 7:24PM
AAAAHHHHGGGG WHY IS HE STILL TALKING!!!???
DangerMouse @ Jun 29th 2009 8:25PM
Because he's getting paid?
PeacefulOutrage @ Jun 29th 2009 7:24PM
Gee. I didn't know that the PS3 and Xbox 360 didn't work on a standard definition TV. I guess a whole lot of people out there (including myself) were hallucinating.
Matias @ Jun 29th 2009 7:35PM
But most games designed for HD look really bad in standard, you can't even read the text in some of them.
Instead the wii is designed for standard, so it looks better on it (in HD it looks weird, grainy).
Ashkental @ Jun 29th 2009 7:42PM
Tell that to Banjo and Kazooie: Nuts and Bolts, they had to patch it so that SD TVs could read what was on screen
manyquestions @ Jun 29th 2009 8:48PM
I just recently got an HD TV and I think the Wii looks great on it. Granted, the only game I've played extensively on the new TV is Mario Galaxy (I've been switching the Wii back and forth between the new one and a smaller, SD TV in my bedroom), but I imagine most games of decent graphics should still at least be presentable. If the only games that look too grainy are the shovelware that looks bad even in SD, then you could robably argue that it's more the developer's fault than the system.
Either way, I'd rather have them look grainy than be illegible. ;)
PeacefulOutrage @ Jun 29th 2009 10:53PM
@Matias, @Ashkental
I have an HDTV now, but for at least a year and a half my 360 was hooked up to an SDTV. The only game I had a problem with origianlly was Dead Rising, which I could still read, just not on my sofa. I had to sit on the floor like a little kid watching TV. Then I figured out that after the mission first scrolls across the screen, you can look in the menu where you could read it in larger text.
Since then, there have been a only a few games that actually gave me problems (Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter, and then after I bought my HDTV, Catan had horribly small text. I wanted to pluck the developers in the back of their head or give them nooggies to share my annoyance with them. Most games, though, are just fine.
Araman @ Jun 29th 2009 7:24PM
Why does this site keep giving that man face/word time? We all know he's a crock that purposely makes outlandish claims to wait for that one time where it finally comes true and then he can keep referring to himself as an "EXPERT MODE" gamer on the gaming industry.
I mean, I know you're mocking him and all (the sarcasm is seething, really), but why even bother? At least Jack Thompson is/was entertaining.
Mr Khan @ Jun 29th 2009 9:57PM
To be fair, his predictions have a 50% accuracy rate, a high benchmark for his kind.
MystileArmor @ Jun 29th 2009 7:28PM
Can we get a bingo card E3-style with this guy's predictions?
Boff @ Jun 30th 2009 5:18AM
Good call
(01) @ Jun 29th 2009 7:28PM
I think "guesstimate" is my most hated word...can we just not use it anymore? Thanks