Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter is no stranger to the gaming scene. In fact, it's his job to guesstimate, speculate, and estiguess on all things gaming, and in his latest report (via IndustryGamers), he paints the future for all three console manufacturers.
First up is Nintendo, a company that Pachter believes will remain in the top spot throughout this console generation. Due to the Wii's "low price point, innovative control mechanism, and compatibility with standard definition televisions." Pachter thinks that Nintendo will rest easy atop the gaming mountain. And he thinks the Wii HD is a big part of it, as Pachter firmly believes Nintendo will introduce a HD-compatible Wii at some point, even as early as next year.
Then there's Sony and its PS3. Pointing to Sony's win in the Blu-ray vs HD DVD war, Pachter says the PS3 will capture "significant market share" through this alone, and says the company will take second place. Regardless, Pachter sees the PS3 and Xbox 360 sharing very similar market share at the conclusion of this generation.
Moving on to Microsoft, Pachter believes the company will end this generation in third, largely due to the console's inability to sell in Japan. Pachter downplays the "losing" angle, however, stating that he believes Microsoft will sell twice as many Xbox 360s as the company did the original Xbox, which, granted it actually happens, would be a nice feather in Microsoft's cap.
Reader Comments (128)
Posted: Jun 29th 2009 9:03PM logicbus said
My Wii is connected to my HDTV right now. Would an HD Wii make existing games look better? I can't believe Madworld would look much better at 1080 lines of resolution.
And Pachter thinks the PS3 will finish in second ... because of Blu-Ray? Blu-Ray is teetering on the brink of irrelevance. The relentless march of increasing storage and bandwidth is well on its way to killing off the CD. It's only a matter of time before people give up buying movies on physical media entirely.
Full versions of PS3 games have been available as downloads for ... months? Years? And full 360 games are coming as downloads soon. The PSP lacks an optical drive. This is the future, and it's really close to being the present. The PS3 might pull out second place this time around, but it won't be because Sony picked the best physical media.
And Pachter thinks the PS3 will finish in second ... because of Blu-Ray? Blu-Ray is teetering on the brink of irrelevance. The relentless march of increasing storage and bandwidth is well on its way to killing off the CD. It's only a matter of time before people give up buying movies on physical media entirely.
Full versions of PS3 games have been available as downloads for ... months? Years? And full 360 games are coming as downloads soon. The PSP lacks an optical drive. This is the future, and it's really close to being the present. The PS3 might pull out second place this time around, but it won't be because Sony picked the best physical media.
Posted: Jun 29th 2009 9:31PM ChomskyKnows said
I just want to say I truly fucking hate Michael Pachter. And I don't totally know why. It's not like he's a cancer on the ass of society like say Bill O'reilly or Rush Limbaugh (or Jack Thompson to stay inside the gaming world). He's just the Less Nessman or John Madden of the gaming, as if we really needed gaming analysts to begin with...He's just a waste of space making gobs of money by saying basically what any jackass off the street could come up with...
At least Jack Thompson is fun to hate.
Newsflash to asshole (Pachter): all 3 consoles will make enough money to make it to the next generation.
At least Jack Thompson is fun to hate.
Newsflash to asshole (Pachter): all 3 consoles will make enough money to make it to the next generation.
Posted: Jun 29th 2009 9:44PM AUserName said
Forgot that damn /sarcasm tag again.
I was saying that the 360 was going to be third come 2015 because a new Xbox would be out by then. It's like saying that the Atari has lost it's fanbase in 2009. REALLY?! IT HAS?! News to me!
I predict that, by 2011, there will be no more analog TVs left; everything will be digital.
I predict that, by the end of this year, MP3 player sales will overtake portable CD players.
I predict that, by August, there will be another prediction by Pachter that will point out something that a 5 year old will know.
FEAR ME, FOR I CAN POINT OUT THE OBVIOUS!!!
I was saying that the 360 was going to be third come 2015 because a new Xbox would be out by then. It's like saying that the Atari has lost it's fanbase in 2009. REALLY?! IT HAS?! News to me!
I predict that, by 2011, there will be no more analog TVs left; everything will be digital.
I predict that, by the end of this year, MP3 player sales will overtake portable CD players.
I predict that, by August, there will be another prediction by Pachter that will point out something that a 5 year old will know.
FEAR ME, FOR I CAN POINT OUT THE OBVIOUS!!!
Posted: Jun 29th 2009 9:57PM (Unverified) said
Joystiq, just marry Pachter already.
Posted: Jun 29th 2009 10:06PM Mr Khan said
The way he's talking about a Wii HD in *this* context is actually much more plausible. This time he's talking about an upgrade to bring it in line with PS360 on a technological scale, which would qualify as a new console, which i do see coming by 2011, not 2010.
Xbox going into 3rd gets less and less likely as time goes by, but is still possible, but Sony has to capitalize on the PS3 Slim very quickly, and show the world definitively that the PS3 is the superior value.
Highly unlikely, but still possible.
Xbox going into 3rd gets less and less likely as time goes by, but is still possible, but Sony has to capitalize on the PS3 Slim very quickly, and show the world definitively that the PS3 is the superior value.
Highly unlikely, but still possible.
Posted: Jun 29th 2009 10:11PM Red Son Rising said
why give this guy a pulpit to preach from? all of these so called predictions are bs, the guy is probably just trying to justify a bloated salary and a similarly overinflated ego by shouting the obvious from the nearest mountaintop.
remind me to ignore all 'prediction' posts from now on.
remind me to ignore all 'prediction' posts from now on.
Posted: Jun 29th 2009 10:30PM geoff0011 said
As much as I would have liked a HD compatible Wii, the console has been so lackluster for me, buying a new one that displays in HD just isn't worth it to me. It just should have been that way from the get go. Also, by the way the Wii is selling like it is, and Nintendo's reaction to the Wii HD, I never see this happening, they will hopefully consider it for their next system, but certainly not the Wii.
Posted: Jun 30th 2009 5:34PM (Unverified) said
Didnt pachter say in 2006 , when the ps3 releases it will surpass the xbx360 & the wii in no time ? wrong!!!! didnt pachter say in 2008 when gta 4 releases it will sell the most copies on the ps3 ? wrong !!! didnt pachter say the ps3 will have a price drop in 2008 ? wrong !!!! Wii hd in 2010 ? yeah right ! does any body see a pattern here ? why does any body trust this guy's predictions ?
Posted: Jun 30th 2009 12:01AM Cypher FDP said
Isn't this the same man who compared Nintendo to McDonald's?
Posted: Jun 30th 2009 12:24AM Giroro said
A new console cycle within the next six years?!?!?!?
Wow! Patcher must be some kind of genius to predict that!
Wow! Patcher must be some kind of genius to predict that!
Posted: Jun 30th 2009 1:36AM CrashTunoku said
The banner image for Pachter predictions should be a photoshop of Tony Kornheiser on PTI, with Michael's face shopped over Tony's face, during the one skit/segment they do with the crystal ball.
Posted: Jun 30th 2009 1:39AM Art84 said
Pachter actually gets paid to make predictions that turn out false?! Must be nice having his job and guessing what the future holds to be bad an ass out of himself. This guy needs to be quite and just shut up.
Posted: Jun 30th 2009 5:19AM (Unverified) said
Wait..did he just fucking predict the PS3 coming in second, NEXT CONSOLE CYCLE?!
God what a douche
God what a douche
Posted: Jun 30th 2009 5:34AM (Unverified) said
Its a shame that people think sony is winning in 2nd place. The console is an epic failure and is offal to play any game on. Nevermind the fact that GhostBusters took the console to the limit w/ the PS3.... we have see all we have from the PS3. Such a shame!
Sham-Ray!
Sham-Ray!
Posted: Jun 30th 2009 7:24AM (Unverified) said
Is this guy INSANE?
When the 360 outsells the PS3 which it usually does in US/Europe, it does it by tens of thousands of units. When the PS3 outsells the 360 in Japan, it's usually by less than 10k.
How exactly does he work out that this will allow Sony to win?
Nutjob.
When the 360 outsells the PS3 which it usually does in US/Europe, it does it by tens of thousands of units. When the PS3 outsells the 360 in Japan, it's usually by less than 10k.
How exactly does he work out that this will allow Sony to win?
Nutjob.
Posted: Jun 30th 2009 10:29AM Chris DPSN AggieCEO XBLThe Aggi said
less than 10k?? might wanna check that again buddy....wait til the REAL sales come around Holiday time... HUNDREDS of Thousands
Reply
Posted: Jun 30th 2009 2:02PM PARANOID365 said
Chris D.(PSN: Aggie_CEO | XBL:The Aggie CEO | Steam: Aggie_CEO,
Quote:
"wait til the REAL sales come around Holiday time... HUNDREDS of Thousands".
Here we go again with the, now famous, Sony fanboy shuffle !!
So I guess PS3 fanboys have now abandoned their hopes of 2009, (the complete year), being, "the year of the PS3", and instead have adopted the holiday season of 2009 as being the time the PS3 will start kicking it up a notch; so would the new slogan be, "2009, (the ass end), will be the months of the PS3" ??
Reply
Quote:
"wait til the REAL sales come around Holiday time... HUNDREDS of Thousands".
Here we go again with the, now famous, Sony fanboy shuffle !!
So I guess PS3 fanboys have now abandoned their hopes of 2009, (the complete year), being, "the year of the PS3", and instead have adopted the holiday season of 2009 as being the time the PS3 will start kicking it up a notch; so would the new slogan be, "2009, (the ass end), will be the months of the PS3" ??
Posted: Jun 30th 2009 8:23AM (Unverified) said
I really don't know people really care. Unless you own a massive amount of stock in these companies I then can see why. As long as the 360/PS3 keep selling (doesn't matter whom is the winner). I'll be happy to know we'll have heavy competitors in the next wave/generation of consoles.
Posted: Jun 30th 2009 8:33AM (Unverified) said
Wouldn't the PS3 have to actually start selling more units than the 360 to actually catch up.
Only about 3 or 4 times (during huge releases and the Bluray win almost 2 years ago) did the PS3 steadily outsell the 360 for more than a week and shortly after it dropped off quickly.
Nice predicting.
Only about 3 or 4 times (during huge releases and the Bluray win almost 2 years ago) did the PS3 steadily outsell the 360 for more than a week and shortly after it dropped off quickly.
Nice predicting.
Posted: Jun 30th 2009 11:07AM zochmenos said
Do the "halo" games (not Halo) ever "save" a console? Didn't any of you ever own an N64? WE HAD TEH GOLDENEYEZ AND OCARINA!
There is always something big coming. The next Zelda, the next Halo, the next God of War. Truth be told, these titles will move consoles, but if we're honest, they won't (haven't) moved enough to make a difference in the overall picture.
The Wii wins because it became the iPod of gaming. While not the most technically impressive console, it connected a lot of people to the hobby and is part of pop-culture. And, as we fan-types know, there is a wierd loyalty to that. To extend the metaphore, NATAL is Zune, and Sony's controller is whatever MP3 Sony is currently pimping.
Change is easy to predict. "More of the same" doesn't stir people to vote, buy things, or talk. Pachter seems to be ignoring the entire history of console gaming here in order to make his "predictions" exciting and interesting.
There is always something big coming. The next Zelda, the next Halo, the next God of War. Truth be told, these titles will move consoles, but if we're honest, they won't (haven't) moved enough to make a difference in the overall picture.
The Wii wins because it became the iPod of gaming. While not the most technically impressive console, it connected a lot of people to the hobby and is part of pop-culture. And, as we fan-types know, there is a wierd loyalty to that. To extend the metaphore, NATAL is Zune, and Sony's controller is whatever MP3 Sony is currently pimping.
Change is easy to predict. "More of the same" doesn't stir people to vote, buy things, or talk. Pachter seems to be ignoring the entire history of console gaming here in order to make his "predictions" exciting and interesting.
Posted: Jun 30th 2009 11:10AM zochmenos said
Oh yeah, since we're all talking about it.
Price drops are not a sign of a healthy product.
"...wait til the REAL sales come around Holiday time..."
Big sales are the death knoll for products.
Go buy a Chrysler.
Price drops are not a sign of a healthy product.
"...wait til the REAL sales come around Holiday time..."
Big sales are the death knoll for products.
Go buy a Chrysler.
Posted: Jun 30th 2009 11:23AM (Unverified) said
How does this guys still have a job?
Posted: Jun 30th 2009 12:29PM (Unverified) said
is this duechebag ever right? why does joystiq post so many of his predictions? it's seems like he's usually more wrong than right most the time. Hell, i could probably make better industry predictions than this guy....i just don't have any major media outlets who will post them every time i fart one out....
Posted: Jun 30th 2009 2:29PM Pookiewood said
Hey! He didn't do OnLive!
Posted: Jun 30th 2009 3:07PM Garst said
Gaming analysts are all morrons! Maybe if they were old gesers thinking they know everything they could see that. The gaming market is too opinionated to predict.
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