Pachter: Current console cycle to go on and on, expect lots of SKUs
by David Hinkle 
{ Jun 30th 2009 at 9:30PM } 
Pointing to the small adoption rates for HD displays, Pachter says that unless consumers start coming out in droves to pick up HD displays, these consumers aren't going to feel compelled to pick up a HD-compatible console (or upgrade from their Wii). This, he feels, adds longevity to the current cycle, stating that current-generation console sales will go long tail, and says that the lower-than-expected adoption rates for consoles suggests a longevity not seen in the past. He also suggests that the increased developmental costs of this generation will cause developers and publishers to milk this generation for all its worth, extending its life that much more. And, due to this, Pachter believes that console sales won't reach their peak until early next decade, when HD adoption rates will also supposedly hit their peak.
And speaking of higher costs, manufacturers are looking to cut costs, and that's where the value of optional SKUs comes in. Pachter points out that as console manufacturers come up with new ways to cut corners, they will offer SKUs taking advantage of this. Pachter points to the PS3 Slim as an obvious release for later this year, and the numerous different packages we've seen offered for the Xbox 360 as examples of this new mentality.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
sony boy @ Jun 30th 2009 9:34PM
i've been hearing about Patcher's B.S. a lot today...
Mr.Happy @ Jun 30th 2009 9:35PM
Yeah, shut up about Patcher.
PARANOID365 @ Jun 30th 2009 9:46PM
For fuck sakes, isn't 1 story about this fucking douche bag enough !!
I swear the next story I hear about this fucking asshat better be a story on how he was hit and crushed by the biggest fucking object possible, or at least his face needs to be mauled by a pack of hyenas or something, (that way he won't be able to talk anymore) !!
Cheesus(Crust) @ Jun 30th 2009 10:16PM
You're too Paranoid man...
samfish (uses the Joystiq Comment-Kill filter!) @ Jun 30th 2009 11:33PM
Man oh man, who baked a big brown steamer in your apple pie today?
aggrazel @ Jul 1st 2009 9:55AM
Seriously, they need to make a separate Pachter website for the 2 people who care. 3 if you count his mom.
Longhorn of Myon [PSN: MariusElijah] @ Jun 30th 2009 9:35PM
That pictures looks like there is a 360 inside the PS3
*Throws acid at eyes
deaftly @ Jun 30th 2009 9:50PM
Awesome Engrish
THE WICKER MAN (BWF) (GT: Dalek Prime) @ Jun 30th 2009 10:02PM
It is ENGLISH.You big dummy.
manyquestions @ Jun 30th 2009 10:17PM
"A Well-thought-out Englilsh Paper by Kyle 'The Yellow Dart' Smith".
Cheesus(Crust) @ Jun 30th 2009 10:17PM
Its SARCASM. You big dummy
Longhorn of Myon [PSN: MariusElijah] @ Jun 30th 2009 10:25PM
WTF is this
samfish (uses the Joystiq Comment-Kill filter!) @ Jun 30th 2009 11:34PM
THIS...IS...
...
Nah I'm not doin' it.
Lekko @ Jun 30th 2009 9:39PM
Right, since these "HD" consoles only work on HDTVs. They see no benefit in SD over a PS2 or Xbox.
Ugh /sarcasm
JSF @ Jun 30th 2009 10:37PM
Yes, I totally want that unreadable text. And the ps2 is way better than the entire current-gen.
Tyba @ Jul 2nd 2009 12:00AM
I can only think of three people I know who don't have HDTV's... and two of them aren't the kind of people who would buy a gaming console and the one who does enjoy gaming owns a PS3 despite his non HD television. I'm curious as to what HD adoption rates look like by region, say Southeast compared to Northeast compared to Midwest.
why not the LS2LS7? @ Jun 30th 2009 9:39PM
What slow adoption rate of HD displays? The adoption rate is over 25% or something like that right now. Basically, of the people who actively buy new stuff (like consoles, games, etc.), perhaps as much as 50% of them have HD displays now.
Mike @ Jun 30th 2009 10:12PM
"slow" is obviously a relative term. He likely means that adoption rate has been slow compared to what was expected/hoped. Remember that US & Canada were planning to have completely abandoned any support for non-HD TVs this year, but consumers disagreed since, outside the (niche market) Blu-ray, having HD isn't a requirement for anything that can use it.
Bravo6 @ Jun 30th 2009 10:14PM
I cant think of anyone I know that does not have a HDTV...
Jack_Jackington @ Jun 30th 2009 10:16PM
You shouldn't take what he says into consideration. We joystiqers make more accurate predictions than this prick. I only wonder what he majored in at college... if he went
why not the LS2LS7? @ Jun 30th 2009 10:17PM
The US & Canada never planned to drop support for non-HDTVs.
I think you mean drop support for non-digital TVs. Which was done 16 days ago.
Canada has digital TV now, but hasn't dropped analog yet.
Dance Mofo @ Jun 30th 2009 9:44PM
why joystiq do you guys keep posting b.s. from this company this guy? Let him/them go until they prove themselves of credible info.
RedSonRising @ Jun 30th 2009 9:46PM
agreed.
Dance Mofo @ Jun 30th 2009 9:54PM
i just can't remember one thing pachter said that was actually true. i think joystiq only post things about pachter when there isnt any real news out there
guttertalk @ Jul 1st 2009 10:12AM
"The Wii is the exception not the rule"
What rule? The made-up rule that the 360 and PS3 should be selling better than the Wii? Seriously, this repeated claim makes no sense. There is no rule. There are facts. Remember the "rule" that the first console to 10 million wins that generation's sales race? We should because Microsoft pushed it frequently as they neared that magic number.
If there's any "rule" it's that the technologically advanced console doesn't always sell the best (if ever). The PS2 sold better though it had weaker specs. The PS3 has the best specs yet is in last place. The DS is technologically inferior to the PSP yet is the runaway handheld. Although the 4th generation consoles were comparable, the SNES was arguably less powerful than the Genesis.
And to that "rule," the Wii is hardly an exception.
I've never owned a Nintendo console until the DS and the Wii. I had my sights set on the PS3, not just because of the PS2 but because I knew that the PS3's parallel processing meant great things. But I ended up with a 360 and then the Wii. Even for myself, things didn't turn out as planned. The same is true of this generation.
Mr Khan @ Jun 30th 2009 9:45PM
It was the great misunderstanding of the significance of HDTV at the beginning of the generation which made all the analysts look like idiots in hindsight (what with their "Wii distant 3rd/irrelevant" predictions)
This generation proved that the advent of High Definition was insignificant to the course of the game industry. The future of high definition is going to have minimal impact on the future of the industry
Far, far different factors will drive the push for new consoles. In Nintendo's case, they'll move when they've drained the well of software creativity dry (they said it themselves), Microsoft is going to want to re-synch their console strategy with their PC strategy (i mean, 360 is based on Direct X9, is it not? Direct X 11 and Windows 7 come soon. Microsoft is going to want to keep everything on the same page). If Microsoft's serious about Natal, they'll also want to replace their console to help reposition themselves in the consumer's mind.
Sony might put more stock in high definition, but i don't really have any inkling about what they want in their console strategy.
RedSonRising @ Jun 30th 2009 10:09PM
HD is not irrelevant or insignificant, its a welcome and necessary upgrade that distinguishes this generation from the last console cycle. the wii is the exception to the rule not the standard.
the wii is last gen tech with a creative control scheme thats brought a new segment to the gaming market. theres no reason to replace the 360 or the ps3 because everything the wii does can be done on both systems with some creative additions.
if anything, the wii (and ps2) prove that old tech is still relevant. i hate predictions but i do agree with this one in principle. i hope this console generation lasts for at least another 5 years, maybe another 10.
manyquestions @ Jun 30th 2009 10:30PM
HD is significant, but I don't know how much it really has to do with the games industry, at least right now. While it may be one of the more noticable differences between some consoles and their predecessors, I wouldn't go so far as to say it's solely or even primarilly what distinguishes this generation from the last (since generations are rarely defined by hardware, but rather by software that took unique advantage of that hardware). A visual improvement, in my view anyway, cannot alone justify the introduction of a new console, no matter how much of an improvement it is.
guttertalk @ Jun 30th 2009 10:43PM
@RedSon:
I think there's a big difference between HD being a touted feature of the "next gen" consoles and HD determining consumer purchases. HD clearly did not have the impact many initially thought, partly because it came with a higher price tag. The PS3 was too expensive, and, though dropping in price, HDTVs are still not getting adopted at the pace expected.
We bought an HDTV 5 years ago, and sadly the 360 is the only HD video we watch. We still haven't bought into Blu-Ray, and, to save money, we ditched cable and hardly watch network TV. And when we watch videos, we watch streaming video via Netflix and Hulu as often as not. Ease of access is more important to us than HD.
Quite frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if access is more important than HD for many.
When it comes to games, though, HD is just not nearly as transformative as some think it is. IMO, games are no more immersive than they were with the PS2, Gamecube, and Xbox, and immersion is really the only thing HD brings to gaming.
Processing power, services, access, price, and controls are more important than HD.
Alistair Azimuth PSN: johnnynumber5 @ Jul 1st 2009 12:10AM
I don't know that Nintendo being on their last leg and catching lighting in a bottle with cost cutting measures means HD isn't relevant to this generation of gaming. Let's not act as if this generation is anywhere close to over and is sure to have many different directions. The Wii is the exception not the rule and even then a large number of Wii consumers are begging for HD visuals on par with the PS360.
justshovejayohbe @ Jul 1st 2009 3:21AM
Nintendo was very clever -- the aesthetic of games like Wii Sports -- though not HD -- is crisp and very modern and so in a way parries HD
xbox420king @ Jun 30th 2009 9:48PM
WiiHD will release right before MarioGalaxy2 releases, sony later this year will release the ps3 slim with a 100 or 50 dollar price drop, and last but not least xboxpro will be dropped and replaced with a price cut elite and later on replaced witha xbox360 slim bundled with natal. Yeah i say this gen we are in might last longer than another generations.
Look At This Suit @ Jun 30th 2009 9:53PM
How about instead of devoting different articles to it, why not just have a weekly feature called "The Hot Air That Came Out of Michael Pachter's Mouth This Week"?
manyquestions @ Jun 30th 2009 10:08PM
In all seriousness a "PachterWatch" might not be a bad idea if the recent article trend is a sign of things to come.
Look At This Suit @ Jun 30th 2009 10:14PM
If Joystiq feels the need to continually post about what this jerk says, then yeah, go for it. What I'm really saying is that there's really no reason to post about what this guy thinks. It's not as if Iwata said "WiiHD is a definite". Pachter is just another jerk with an opinion. The only difference is that for some reason, a lot of people care about his opinion.
Uncontrol @ Jun 30th 2009 10:38PM
unironically support this
Boff @ Jul 1st 2009 4:56AM
Pachterwatch. I feel dirty now.
SKI @ Jun 30th 2009 9:59PM
If it goes on and on, but new games will start requiring WiiHD, or Natal, or some other new "optional" outside upgrade, won't it just be a new generation?
chispito @ Jun 30th 2009 9:59PM
I assume he's not going so far as to suggest that these consoles will outlast the original Gameboy?
AvA (ice~) @ Jun 30th 2009 10:02PM
What did I say about this guy on the last post??? patcher.joystiq.com do it! lol so many patcher posts...my mind is gooing to explode from his amazing analysis'!!!
THE WICKER MAN (BWF) (GT: Dalek Prime) @ Jun 30th 2009 10:04PM
My god he drank his gypsy seer juice this morning! Lonely Pachter wants hugz.
Negativecool @ Jun 30th 2009 10:07PM
"expect lots of SKUs."
....
I don't get it...
Is this supposed to be a prediction or a summation of the status quo?
Manly Mcbeefington (Mr. ESC) @ Jun 30th 2009 10:19PM
Nop, He is just the psychic of intrascendental events.
Tomorrow someone is going to spill his or her coffee.
XBL: xGeneral DEATHx PSN: Deeth82 @ Jul 1st 2009 8:46AM
AMAZING!!!! How do you know these things?!
Blkant @ Jun 30th 2009 10:10PM
Is anyone else getting sick and tired of these analysis's making stupid predictions as if they really know the answer. Bunch of annoying arrogant pricks if you ask me, who the hell agreed pay these ass holes to do nothing but make crappy, frequently wrong predictions?
Wish my job payed me to sit on my ass and talk crap all day :(
Alistair Azimuth PSN: johnnynumber5 @ Jul 1st 2009 12:13AM
I agree these seemingly obvious predictions get annoying but there was a published study on Joystiq that showed Patcher has a greater than 50% correct status on his predictions ... thats god like in his line of business.
Alistair Azimuth PSN: johnnynumber5 @ Jul 1st 2009 12:15AM
oh and I'm pretty sure it's investors paying for his little diatribes so they know where to spend their monies ... yup ... people invest money based off this douche bags word.
Manly Mcbeefington (Mr. ESC) @ Jun 30th 2009 10:17PM
Is Samsung or LG are sponsoring this guy? He has an obsession with HDTVs,in fact this could be an ad for HDTVs.
“If you don’t have an HDTV you going to be stuck on this console circle forever muhahahaha”
He might be right on one thing, this generation might last quite a while but then again what do you define as a long run? There are still games coming out for the Ps2 you know [And some Japanese really obscure games for the Dreamcast and Sega Genesis].
If it wasn’t because all his proves are based on the HDTVs sale charts he would have a point.
oOWallaceOo @ Jun 30th 2009 10:23PM
Michael Pachter is so good at making predictions he knew what date it is tomorrow, yesterday.
Saad @ Jun 30th 2009 10:28PM
Why is "stating the obvious", news on joystiq, let alone a paid job.