According to Cowan and Company analyst Doug Creutz, expected price cuts for all major consoles won't stimulate sales as much as previous cuts have in the past, reports GI.biz. The reason, according to Creutz, is increased "pressure on consumers" brought on by the current economic climate. That said, Creutz still believes that price cuts are imminent, specifically a $100 cut to the PS3, $50 from the Wii and a new $300 price for the Xbox 360.
Of course, given the rumors and evidence flying around the web these days, you don't really need an analyst to tell you that. Creutz expects price drop announcements as early as the Gamescom convention next week. (Joystiq's Magic 8-Ball strongly agrees.)
On the software side of things, Creutz expects year-over-year sales to continue to decline, starting with the incoming July NPD numbers. Another drop will occur in August, but things may turn around in September because nothing gets the cash flowing like Guitar Hero and Halo.
Reader Comments (53)
Posted: Aug 13th 2009 6:43PM (Unverified) said
don't expect price cuts to help hardware sales?
that is the stupidest thing I have ever heard
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that is the stupidest thing I have ever heard
Posted: Aug 13th 2009 6:56PM R Planteer said
What a dumbass. When a well known, popular product (such as video games consoles) becomes cheaper (price cut) sales always have a boost, even if its only temporary. These people are living in a fantasy world.
Oi, Cowan and Company, fire this Doug guy and hire me. You wont regret it.
Xbox Hardware sales will increase when Halo ODST comes out.
PS3 will outsell xbox 360 in Japan next month.
Nintendo will remain filthy rich.
How am I doing?
Reply
Oi, Cowan and Company, fire this Doug guy and hire me. You wont regret it.
Xbox Hardware sales will increase when Halo ODST comes out.
PS3 will outsell xbox 360 in Japan next month.
Nintendo will remain filthy rich.
How am I doing?
Posted: Aug 13th 2009 7:21PM EngadgetSoFunny said
@The wanna-be analyst
"Xbox Hardware sales will increase when Halo ODST comes out."
I disagree with this prediction. Many people whom are into the Halo franchise already purchased xbox 360s when Halo 3 came out. Those people already have xbox 360s so would have no need to purchase a second xbox 360 for Halo: ODST.
That's like those people who won't buy a wii till theres at least 5 Mario games, and a ps3 till theres at least 3 Final Fantasy games and an xbox 360 till there's at least 2 Halos? This target market probably won't increase xbox 360 sales much I'm afraid.
I'm really disappointed by the reading comprehension shown in this thread too. It is sad that the first four comments are failing to understand the analyst only said price cuts won't make as big of an effect. Not that sales won't increase. Just that sales won't increase by as much as previous price cuts increased sales by. I was horribly confused about the line saying "and a new $399 price for the Xbox 360" though since the xbox 360 already sales for under $399.00 if you count the arcade or pro.
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"Xbox Hardware sales will increase when Halo ODST comes out."
I disagree with this prediction. Many people whom are into the Halo franchise already purchased xbox 360s when Halo 3 came out. Those people already have xbox 360s so would have no need to purchase a second xbox 360 for Halo: ODST.
That's like those people who won't buy a wii till theres at least 5 Mario games, and a ps3 till theres at least 3 Final Fantasy games and an xbox 360 till there's at least 2 Halos? This target market probably won't increase xbox 360 sales much I'm afraid.
I'm really disappointed by the reading comprehension shown in this thread too. It is sad that the first four comments are failing to understand the analyst only said price cuts won't make as big of an effect. Not that sales won't increase. Just that sales won't increase by as much as previous price cuts increased sales by. I was horribly confused about the line saying "and a new $399 price for the Xbox 360" though since the xbox 360 already sales for under $399.00 if you count the arcade or pro.
Posted: Aug 13th 2009 6:49PM h0mi said
This is pretty stupid because consoles are selling poorly relative to previous generations because they cost so much more, coupled with confusion due to multiple SKUs (the $200 xbox isnt as good a value as a $300 xbox, so the $200 model is less desirable and the $300 model just costs too much).
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Posted: Aug 13th 2009 6:50PM vidguy said
Actually, the current economic climate is likely to help hardware sales *more* than previous cuts, at least percentage-wise (rather than total units sold). Typically there are groups of consumers that wait for a certain price point "sweet-spot" before they buy. Bad economic times means fewer buy at the high prices, and a larger percentage buy at lower prices.
Simple economics and math suggest Creutz is dead wrong.
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Simple economics and math suggest Creutz is dead wrong.
Posted: Aug 13th 2009 6:57PM vidguy said
In economic-speak, in bad economic times, consumer price elasticity of demand increases for luxury goods. Slight price-drops will spur larger increases in sales than normal, creating larger revenues (provided that the item is sold for a profit). The best thing to do in bad economic times if you sell a luxury good (like a video-game console) is to lower your price.
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Posted: Aug 13th 2009 6:55PM Vcize said
To be fair, the title of this article is entirely misleading (although the text of the article isn't).
What he actually said was "price cuts for all major consoles won't stimulate sales aAS MUCH AS PREVIOUS CUTS HAVE IN THE PAST".
Which, given the economy, is just yet another statement of the obvious by an analyst.
That said, while it might not have much of an affect on the 360/Wii at this point given their already fairly low prices, I would think it would still give PS3 sales a very major boost.
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What he actually said was "price cuts for all major consoles won't stimulate sales aAS MUCH AS PREVIOUS CUTS HAVE IN THE PAST".
Which, given the economy, is just yet another statement of the obvious by an analyst.
That said, while it might not have much of an affect on the 360/Wii at this point given their already fairly low prices, I would think it would still give PS3 sales a very major boost.
Posted: Aug 13th 2009 8:37PM (Unverified) said
You can just buy a PS3 used if it's that big of a problem. Pawn shops here sell 60gbs for $220.
Reply
Posted: Aug 14th 2009 12:07PM (Unverified) said
Hardware may cost a lot, but games is where I'd like to see a cut.
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Posted: Aug 14th 2009 12:37PM Figgellum said
Here here! Since the dawn of the "new" $60 price point I've subscribed to Gamefly and haven't bought a single new game, except for a few like Bioshock, GTAIV and Fallout 3. These are games that have value, that I'll play for along time and don't feel ripped off paying for.
Games cost more to develop, but that's not the consumers fault. If publishers want to have a tech war they'll have to do it on their nickel, not mine.
PS- If they drop the price of the Elite, they better drop the price of the 250GB HD!
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Games cost more to develop, but that's not the consumers fault. If publishers want to have a tech war they'll have to do it on their nickel, not mine.
PS- If they drop the price of the Elite, they better drop the price of the 250GB HD!
Posted: Aug 14th 2009 9:51PM (Unverified) said
"Hardware may cost a lot, but games is where I'd like to see a cut."
But... would you also like to see a cut in the production values?
Do we really want a cut-down version of Half-Life Episode 3, so it can fit under $30?
Production costs have escalated in to orbit, yet game prices haven't.
Historically, games are much better value now than they've ever been. Taking in to account inflation, and fun-per-hour relative to books/videos/music, games are actually amazing value.
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But... would you also like to see a cut in the production values?
Do we really want a cut-down version of Half-Life Episode 3, so it can fit under $30?
Production costs have escalated in to orbit, yet game prices haven't.
Historically, games are much better value now than they've ever been. Taking in to account inflation, and fun-per-hour relative to books/videos/music, games are actually amazing value.
Posted: Aug 13th 2009 6:59PM WiredKnight said
I almost wonder if we're approaching the threshold where most of the people who want to purchase a console already have. In this case it would make sense to say that price cuts won't have much effect, people simple aren't going to buy more than one.
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Posted: Aug 13th 2009 7:00PM ColorblindMonk said
Screw hardware sells. I just want the price drop.
Reply
Posted: Aug 13th 2009 7:01PM (Unverified) said
I'm sure hoping for a $50 price cut on the Wii before christmas, that'd make me feel a hell of a lot better about getting one.
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Posted: Aug 13th 2009 7:12PM RobS the 3rd said
Tmac saying he might, possible, maybe, purchase a Wii at some future date....
IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD! ARMAGEDDON IS UPON US!
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IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD! ARMAGEDDON IS UPON US!
Posted: Aug 13th 2009 7:03PM Mr Khan said
I would think Nintendo's first jump would be a full $100, if anything. I also don't think Microsoft will introduce a newer premium-tier product at $400, unless that's a typo (or an estimate including Natal). I think that, when PS3 starts the move downward, i don't think Microsoft will want to stand at the top.
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Posted: Aug 13th 2009 7:11PM Vcize said
I'm not sure what's worse. The fact that the headline for this article is a bit misleading, or the fact that, even though what Creutz REALLY said is right there in the first sentence, 90% of the people commenting here are still commenting as if he actually said that price cuts won't help hardware sales, as the headline implies.
But the REALLY funny part is that most of that 90%, who apparently lacks the ability to read, is commenting to call the guy dumb, for something he didn't actually say.
Irony.
Reply
But the REALLY funny part is that most of that 90%, who apparently lacks the ability to read, is commenting to call the guy dumb, for something he didn't actually say.
Irony.
Posted: Aug 13th 2009 7:23PM ShadowLordAriel said
@Vcize,
How is the title misleading? And how is what Creutz says in the first sentence different from what the title of the article states? The first few sentences outline what Creutz ACTUALLY says (and looking over the entire article there isn't any doublespeak I can see unless you're reading something more or less into it.) Both the title and the article are making an observation of the state of things. Truth be told both are only stating the obvious. It is rather ridiculous that this news is considered news because it has been talked about for ages now. Stating the obvious isn't exaclty informing it's just stupid......
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How is the title misleading? And how is what Creutz says in the first sentence different from what the title of the article states? The first few sentences outline what Creutz ACTUALLY says (and looking over the entire article there isn't any doublespeak I can see unless you're reading something more or less into it.) Both the title and the article are making an observation of the state of things. Truth be told both are only stating the obvious. It is rather ridiculous that this news is considered news because it has been talked about for ages now. Stating the obvious isn't exaclty informing it's just stupid......
Posted: Aug 13th 2009 8:47PM Vcize said
Ravenlord, what I'm saying is that the title is different than the article (first sentence included), not that the first sentence is different than the rest of the article.
The title implies that Cruetz is saying that if the PS3 is selling 200k units per month right now, it will still be selling 200k units per month after a price drop. Obviously (to anyone with half a brain), that's not what he's saying at all. From the comments however, it's clear that a lot of people think that's EXACTLY what he's saying, because that's what the title implies.
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The title implies that Cruetz is saying that if the PS3 is selling 200k units per month right now, it will still be selling 200k units per month after a price drop. Obviously (to anyone with half a brain), that's not what he's saying at all. From the comments however, it's clear that a lot of people think that's EXACTLY what he's saying, because that's what the title implies.
Posted: Aug 13th 2009 8:59PM (Unverified) said
So a better title would be "Don't expect price cuts to help hardware sales as much as one would think", though it's kinda long-winded and boring, and you'd be better off reading the article.
GASP
Reply
GASP
Posted: Aug 13th 2009 7:11PM ShadowLordAriel said
Ok well basically this guy is just stating the obvious. Consumers aren't buying because they don't have money.....DUH!........
However his prediction that sales will continue to decline year over year with the consoles reflects the longer life cycle that the big 3 are always talking about. Unless Sony, MS or Nintendo are planning to pull a rabbit out of their hats in the next 2 or 3 years in the form of PS4, XBox 720, Nintendo (Whatever the new console is named) nobody is going to want to buy consoles they already own. Obviously if nothing new is coming out there won't be any new business except on the software side of things. As things do get cheaper I think more of the people who haven't jumped on the current bandwagon will probably purchase but that'll be a small percentage and consist mainly of casual gamers or people who have been on the fence about buying.
I read somewhere that they are planning to drop the 360 Elite to $299.99 not $399.99 (thought it was already at that price point) I swear these analysts sure get paid a lot of money to tell people things they already know........maybe I should apply for their jobs?
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However his prediction that sales will continue to decline year over year with the consoles reflects the longer life cycle that the big 3 are always talking about. Unless Sony, MS or Nintendo are planning to pull a rabbit out of their hats in the next 2 or 3 years in the form of PS4, XBox 720, Nintendo (Whatever the new console is named) nobody is going to want to buy consoles they already own. Obviously if nothing new is coming out there won't be any new business except on the software side of things. As things do get cheaper I think more of the people who haven't jumped on the current bandwagon will probably purchase but that'll be a small percentage and consist mainly of casual gamers or people who have been on the fence about buying.
I read somewhere that they are planning to drop the 360 Elite to $299.99 not $399.99 (thought it was already at that price point) I swear these analysts sure get paid a lot of money to tell people things they already know........maybe I should apply for their jobs?
Posted: Aug 13th 2009 8:16PM Shadowbender said
I may be getting a PS3 soon. I'm missing out on some great games and a powerful machine. Besides, I'm a SERIOUS gamer, and it makes sense for me to have all 3 in my opinion.
Reply
Posted: Aug 13th 2009 8:35PM (Unverified) said
Multiple SKUs needs to gtfo. Props to Nintendo for not going that route.
$299 360 that will rrod, no thank you!
Reply
$299 360 that will rrod, no thank you!
Posted: Aug 13th 2009 10:31PM (Unverified) said
"Multiple SKUs needs to gtfo."
Multiple SKUs have allowed Microsoft to sell many more millions of machines. The Arcade provides a price point suitable for families on a budget, along with an easy upgrade path. (Just buy a HDD, and XBL with headset, and any peripherals you need, over time.)
Sony's monolithic route, on the other hand, has proved disastrous for them. Their message to everyone who doesn't want or can't afford Blu-ray: "too bad".
And the market has spoken. Not only does MS command a large lead between the two HD consoles this generation, but that lead is increasing. And that's bad news for anyone interested in a diverse, cost-effective market.
So, pull up your socks Sony. You've stuffed up badly, fix the problem while you can. Bite the bullet, drop the price substantially, give up trying to sell expensive machines with bundle deals (they're not selling!) and make it easier and cheaper for developers to build games for the PS3.
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Multiple SKUs have allowed Microsoft to sell many more millions of machines. The Arcade provides a price point suitable for families on a budget, along with an easy upgrade path. (Just buy a HDD, and XBL with headset, and any peripherals you need, over time.)
Sony's monolithic route, on the other hand, has proved disastrous for them. Their message to everyone who doesn't want or can't afford Blu-ray: "too bad".
And the market has spoken. Not only does MS command a large lead between the two HD consoles this generation, but that lead is increasing. And that's bad news for anyone interested in a diverse, cost-effective market.
So, pull up your socks Sony. You've stuffed up badly, fix the problem while you can. Bite the bullet, drop the price substantially, give up trying to sell expensive machines with bundle deals (they're not selling!) and make it easier and cheaper for developers to build games for the PS3.
Posted: Aug 14th 2009 12:57AM (Unverified) said
"A single SKU hasn't hurt Nintendo that much. Hasn't the Wii already overtaken the 360?"
And does the Wii cost as much as a PS3? No.
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And does the Wii cost as much as a PS3? No.
Posted: Aug 13th 2009 8:55PM (Unverified) said
Ok, what this guy is saying is that we, in a recession, do not buy as much stuff. Therefore, no matter what you do, people aren't going to flock to a $200-$300 device, simply because people don't have $200-$300 to spend on video games due to the lack of money due to the recession.
A price drop is still going to attract people, just not as many who'd normally spend money whimsically due to their stable jobs.
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A price drop is still going to attract people, just not as many who'd normally spend money whimsically due to their stable jobs.
Posted: Aug 13th 2009 9:58PM neoXmahi said
Again, he's an analyst, what does he know. From what I've seen over IGN and Joystiq, gaming analysts are finally being looked down upon as people are really realizing they're just as annoying as the IRS. Analysts jobs are to be able to take data and is believed to forsee coming events through that. All they do is "wear cheap purple suits and make-up" and look like they know what they're talking about. But its not so. They actually GET PAID TO GUESS! "People in masks cannot be trusted."
Price drop, yes. Is it going to do SONY any good? No. Everyone knew that Microsoft wasn't going to stand-by and let something happen. Given's Bill Gates history as well as the history of Micosoft, Microsoft can only compete by cloning and mirroring around them. There is no creative balance. So naturally, if Sony's gonna price drop, Microsoft is gonna find somewhere to make cuts too to try and stay ahead. I don't think its in Sony's style or you might find a stripped down PlayStation 3. But Sony isn't like that. Sony has packed their console full of technology and they wanna really move the world further.
If you look around other econimical times when the states have suffered, I believe there was an increase in people going to movies. The gaming industry is thriving. Apple is beginning to see this with the demand for games on the iPod, which in my personal opinion is a joke. I don't believe gaming is on the downfall in the least. For the rest of this year, I don't see any games worth buying other than the coveted Uncharted 2. Everything has made the shift to Spring. You can imagine that Microsoft is eventually gonna pick this up, and they're gonna start delaying. There is something about Spring of 2010. Sony promised we'd be seeing more and hearing from motion control. Is this implemented into the games delayed intil 2010. Definately not. But, the Holiday season is drab. There's nothing good and I personally think Sony should consider releasing their Slim model in the Spring as well with a slew of games to choose from. Unless Sony believes Uncharted 2 can really help things along. Other than that, I'll be getting Uncharted 2 in October, but doesn't look like I'll be getting any videogames for Christmas. They all suck.
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Price drop, yes. Is it going to do SONY any good? No. Everyone knew that Microsoft wasn't going to stand-by and let something happen. Given's Bill Gates history as well as the history of Micosoft, Microsoft can only compete by cloning and mirroring around them. There is no creative balance. So naturally, if Sony's gonna price drop, Microsoft is gonna find somewhere to make cuts too to try and stay ahead. I don't think its in Sony's style or you might find a stripped down PlayStation 3. But Sony isn't like that. Sony has packed their console full of technology and they wanna really move the world further.
If you look around other econimical times when the states have suffered, I believe there was an increase in people going to movies. The gaming industry is thriving. Apple is beginning to see this with the demand for games on the iPod, which in my personal opinion is a joke. I don't believe gaming is on the downfall in the least. For the rest of this year, I don't see any games worth buying other than the coveted Uncharted 2. Everything has made the shift to Spring. You can imagine that Microsoft is eventually gonna pick this up, and they're gonna start delaying. There is something about Spring of 2010. Sony promised we'd be seeing more and hearing from motion control. Is this implemented into the games delayed intil 2010. Definately not. But, the Holiday season is drab. There's nothing good and I personally think Sony should consider releasing their Slim model in the Spring as well with a slew of games to choose from. Unless Sony believes Uncharted 2 can really help things along. Other than that, I'll be getting Uncharted 2 in October, but doesn't look like I'll be getting any videogames for Christmas. They all suck.
Posted: Aug 13th 2009 10:40PM (Unverified) said
"Price drop, yes. Is it going to do SONY any good? No. "
Actually, it will. Which is why they are going to drop the price.
By dropping the price on the base unit, they get consoles in to homes. The consoles are then used as the primary marketing tool to drive additional, revenue through DLC, movies, games, other PSN services/buyables and of course, lucrative peripherals.
i.e. consoles are the start of the cycle, not the end. They are the means to make money. And you can't make money if nobody owns your overpriced console.
Sony have no choice in the matter. The PS3's status as a Blu-ray player is rapidly being threatened by much cheaper BD players, many of which will arrive in the US from China for this Christmas season. Sony are seeing PS3 sales figures drop month by month, and if you don't have a sale, you don't have an attach rate, you don't have anything.
It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when, and how much.
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Actually, it will. Which is why they are going to drop the price.
By dropping the price on the base unit, they get consoles in to homes. The consoles are then used as the primary marketing tool to drive additional, revenue through DLC, movies, games, other PSN services/buyables and of course, lucrative peripherals.
i.e. consoles are the start of the cycle, not the end. They are the means to make money. And you can't make money if nobody owns your overpriced console.
Sony have no choice in the matter. The PS3's status as a Blu-ray player is rapidly being threatened by much cheaper BD players, many of which will arrive in the US from China for this Christmas season. Sony are seeing PS3 sales figures drop month by month, and if you don't have a sale, you don't have an attach rate, you don't have anything.
It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when, and how much.
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