EEDAR: Guitar Hero 5 will outsell The Beatles: Rock Band by nearly 2-to-1
by Randy Nelson 
{ Aug 26th 2009 at 9:00PM }
EEDAR analyst Jessie Divnich has been quoted in a newly-published Bloomberg article, stating that the research group sees The Beatles: Rock Band facing a tough fight against the latest Guitar Hero in a genre that has, as he believes, "peaked." We got in touch with Divnich to talk about his assertion in the same article that Guitar Hero 5 will likely outsell Harmonix's Beatles game this year by a ratio of nearly two-to-one.
Divnich says he expects Activison to ring up sales in the order of 3 million GH5 units across all platforms, compared to a projected 1.7 million for The Beatles: Rock Band. "I believe that at the end of the day, it comes down to marketing muscle, and Activision has proven in numerous showdowns that they can out advertise and out promote their competitor," he tells Joystiq. "If Activision relaxes on the marketing spend, while MTV Games kicks it up a notch, there's certainly a chance that I could be wrong."
There's another scenario in which this year's Rock Band could prove more of a contender. "The only concern I have with my Guitar Hero vs. Rock Band analysis is that Activision may focus less on marketing Guitar Hero 5 and divert funding to DJ Hero, a new brand in their Guitar Hero line-up," EEDAR's chief number man admits. "That would certainly change the game."
No matter what, Divnich doesn't see a very-worst-case scenario playing out for MTV Games and Harmonix, assuring us that "[The Beatles: Rock Band] will outsell Rock Band 2 this holiday season."
Divnich says he expects Activison to ring up sales in the order of 3 million GH5 units across all platforms, compared to a projected 1.7 million for The Beatles: Rock Band. "I believe that at the end of the day, it comes down to marketing muscle, and Activision has proven in numerous showdowns that they can out advertise and out promote their competitor," he tells Joystiq. "If Activision relaxes on the marketing spend, while MTV Games kicks it up a notch, there's certainly a chance that I could be wrong."
There's another scenario in which this year's Rock Band could prove more of a contender. "The only concern I have with my Guitar Hero vs. Rock Band analysis is that Activision may focus less on marketing Guitar Hero 5 and divert funding to DJ Hero, a new brand in their Guitar Hero line-up," EEDAR's chief number man admits. "That would certainly change the game."
No matter what, Divnich doesn't see a very-worst-case scenario playing out for MTV Games and Harmonix, assuring us that "[The Beatles: Rock Band] will outsell Rock Band 2 this holiday season."
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Snipermike @ Aug 26th 2009 9:04PM
I call bullshit
MechaGamerX @ Aug 26th 2009 9:04PM
NOOO!!
WE cannot let this happen, C'mon, all we need is love and a little help from our friends to prevent this madness!
Dr. Ew @ Aug 26th 2009 9:04PM
The lowest common denominator always wins.
tmacairjordan87 @ Aug 26th 2009 9:27PM
Run...run now before the Nintendo fanboys can piece together what you said!
tmacairjordan87 @ Aug 26th 2009 9:05PM
EA is backing Harmonix who is making Beatles, but GH is run by Activision.....
God I want EA to suffer now, but it would be like asking a Red Sox fan to root for the Yankees even for only 1 day.
Bakkster @ Aug 27th 2009 6:19AM
Well, EA is just the distributor, so the only thing they add to Rock Band is trucks. Unless you really can't fucking stand their trucks, I don't think you're breaking any philosophical boycott by liking Rock Band.
JerJer @ Aug 26th 2009 9:06PM
and rock band the beatles will outsell guitar hero van halen 2:1.
so? apples and oranges.
WINterfang @ Aug 26th 2009 9:21PM
You mean the are both round fruits with warm colors?
Premature ejaculation man @ Aug 26th 2009 9:31PM
One has round fruit, the other has rectangle fruit (the more you eat the more you...)
AwesomeTown @ Aug 27th 2009 8:11AM
2:1? Wow, you must be in a great mood because that seems awfully generous.
Jeremy White @ Aug 26th 2009 9:06PM
I would hate to see GH5 sell more than The Beatles: Rock Band but the fact is, GH5 is a new game with a bunch of new songs and The Beatles: Rock Band is The Beatles. Not everyone is a fan of The Beatles.
If it was GH5 versus Rock Band 3 though, there's no way, especially not after World Tour.
Thatoneguy64 @ Aug 26th 2009 9:11PM
You'd be surprised how many people will still buy a Guitar Hero5 even after the punishment Activision keeps dealing out.
Hell, there are those out there who are still under the impression that Rock Band is the copier and have no clue whatsoever that Rock Band is made by the original developers of Guitar Hero.
Brand name pulls a lot of weight and, sadly, Guitar Hero still retains a lot of brand name power.
xaiax @ Aug 27th 2009 3:27AM
It's worse than that, people are pretty dumb.
I was in a store recently and talked to someone who thought Guitar Hero World Tour was the sequel to Rock Band. Even though there was a big stack of "Rock Band 2" right in front of her.
People? People are f'n *dumb*.
So's this analyst. Here's why: "Beatles".
the_pop @ Aug 27th 2009 5:10PM
World Tour out sold Rock band by more than 2:1 and WT was terrible. So I wouldn't be surprised at all if GH5 out sold RB:B by a lot more.
I probably won't be buying GH5 but I know I definitely won't be buying RB: Beatles simply because it is going to be incredibly dull on guitar.
I'm going ti get [-] into oblivion by saying something against rock band so I may as well finish it off with saying GH3 r00lz and all other music rhythm games are poop.
MarkHawk @ Aug 26th 2009 9:07PM
The Beatles Rock Band will rack up 100 to 1 more time in my disc tray... and more likely live on in my heart much linger then the cash grab knwon as GH5 does.
MarkHawk @ Aug 26th 2009 9:08PM
I hate Joystiq for not having an edit or delete button. It's 2009... give me 10 minutes to fix my stupidity.
aoday91 @ Aug 26th 2009 9:24PM
Its okay to make mistakes as long as you learn from them
gib @ Aug 26th 2009 10:40PM
GH5 will never see my disc tray... TBRB will probably see the light of day, it will be in my tray too much.
gib @ Aug 26th 2009 11:16PM
*not* see the light of day
(oh, the irony of needing an edit button on this reply thread)
Lukeyo @ Aug 27th 2009 9:56AM
Usually I read my posts aloud before hitting "Add Comment". It's a good practice.
Markez @ Aug 26th 2009 9:07PM
My common sense is tingling. I don't personally like the Beatles at all, and would therefore be more interested in a game like Guitar Hero 5 that obviously has a more well rounded offering of songs than just a single band. In addition I think for a game focused on a single band, it's also going to require people extra motivated/interested in the Beatles to compel a purchase from people.
xaiax @ Aug 27th 2009 6:52PM
Except, "personally" doesn't really cut it, and the Beatles have a much longer fan base, and a good number of CRAZY fans willing to spend money. GH5 might have broad appeal to *gamers*, but they were hocking Beatles Rock Band on *QVC*.
To liken it to video game consoles, GH5 would be the XBox outselling the PS3 of Rock Band, and Beatles Rock Band is going to be the Wii. A lot of people will say, "well, I'm not interested, therefore it won't do very well", forgetting the fact they are not average people.
Markez @ Aug 27th 2009 8:09PM
That's an asinine comparison. And stating 'personally' indicates my personal preference, which does indeed cut it in this context when I'm voicing an opinion.
Regardless of fan base, this still holds true "I think for a game focused on a single band, it's also going to require people extra motivated/interested in the Beatles to compel a purchase from people."
Are you saying you think it's going to blow the doors off GH5/regular Rock Band sales?
mynk @ Sep 7th 2009 1:42AM
that console metaphor was PRETTY bad.
WiredKnight @ Aug 26th 2009 9:11PM
...conveniently overlooking the fact that Rock Band is the better of the two franchises.
Yea, it's only one band, but it's one of the most popular bands in the history of time. I think people are underestimating it.
gib @ Aug 26th 2009 10:43PM
While I completely agree, that RB is better than Guitar Hero, the inconvenient truth is that the GH name is more known by soccer-moms buying their bratty kids a game for Christmas.
Jayvan @ Aug 27th 2009 12:24AM
Who really cares about GH:5, I'm looking forward to RB:3, and by then not even GH:7 will beat it
Shadow_Modder @ Aug 26th 2009 9:13PM
Well, aren't they giving away another Guitar Hero game when you buy Guitar Hero 5? I guess some people would see more 'value' in that than from a single Rock Band game, for probably around the same price.
Either way, I hope that people recognize what's the best product overall and go with it. I haven't gotten into this type of games yet, I just have enough space to play games in this apartment, I can't fit all the band sets and that stuff.
James @ Aug 26th 2009 9:14PM
I hope they both fail, how you like dem apples.
Zoot Suit Jedi @ Aug 26th 2009 10:26PM
Apparently, not one bit.
Brought to you by invisicomment. They won't even know you wrote it.
GewurztraminerX @ Aug 26th 2009 9:15PM
Count me in for The Beatles, thanks.
I've known I was going to get it since it was announced. Guitar Hero 5, on the other hand, I've been debating back and forth whether I wanted to get it. The track list doesn't impress me THAT much but things like Johnny Cash, Avatar support, and a free Van Halen game were almost enough to sway me to purchase GH5 as well as The Beatles (not, and never, in place of).
But I have to be honest, I'd rather just not get GH5 and get Beatles DLC instead. That sounds infinitely more fun than two more GH games, and money better spent.
T @ Aug 26th 2009 9:17PM
Wasn't there just a report that The Beatles game was beating GH5 in pre-orders 2-1? If that's true...then wouldn't GH have to sell four times as many copies of the game than are being pre-ordered?
Does that happen?
Joe @ Aug 26th 2009 9:24PM
You underestimate the power of clueless parents on Black Friday.
"Hmm... 13-year-old Johnny likes the Rock Band, but he says The Beatles are gay... Oh, Guitar Hero 5 has that Attack Attack band he likes so much! We'll get that!"
Hydrophobicfish (PSN: HydrophobicFish) @ Aug 27th 2009 1:10AM
Joe, while I agree with what you're saying, I disagree with how you're saying it.
You OVERestimate parents studying the games they buy for their children.
The parent will hear the kid mention RB or GH (or outright ask what the kid wants, to which they'd say whichever).
Parents won't read the back of the box.
WINterfang @ Aug 26th 2009 9:18PM
That's funny, because I'm watching the Beatles Anthology on VH1 and I'm just thinking, fuck..this game is going to sell a lot.
korwyn @ Aug 26th 2009 9:22PM
we should be able to down-vote articles as well.
WiiFTW @ Aug 26th 2009 9:36PM
See: Digg, Reddit, etc.
JP2546 @ Aug 26th 2009 9:20PM
People forget that Guitar Hero World Tour sold more than rock band 2 so why wouldn't GH5 sell more then a band specific Rock band
Peter Moore @ Aug 26th 2009 9:55PM
Because it's the Beatles.
knor @ Aug 26th 2009 9:24PM
They forgot to mention that the "study" was paid
for by Activision
David @ Aug 26th 2009 9:26PM
do you have a source for this?
darkwater124 @ Aug 26th 2009 9:25PM
The lastest Guitar Hero has "peaked"? That's actually sad from what I've gathered.
Seriously, I have the game (you gotta know people), and it almost feels like a step backwards since the guitar is the only instrument focused on and the basis of picking their songs (I say "almost" because the last game was World Tour).
And it seems The Beatles Rock Band has been more promoted in stores. I went to a game store (I forget the name) where they had cases for pre-ordering the game in plain view while I had to look near a corner to find GH5. I also went into a BlockBuster and saw a poster for The Beatles Rock Band that took up almost all of it's side of the window.
I'd have to say that Guitar Hero has some hefty competition...
(with Lego Rock Band, that is...)
David @ Aug 26th 2009 9:31PM
I'd say this "analyst" should be fired from his job immediately, because he's comparing a basic installment in a franchise (Guitar Hero 5) to what's the equivalent of a side project to the Rock Band property (The Beatles Rock Band).
HEY guess what guys, I bet you that Guitar Hero 5 will sell more than Guitar Hero Metallica! Look at me, I'm an analyst!
Of course GH5 is going to outsell, but I still think Beatles: RB will do pretty well, and will undoubtedly be the top-selling band specific RB/GH game yet. Beatles: RB will do a great job of attracting all those baby boomers who grew up with the Beatles. There's a lot of them, and they have much more expendable income than teenagers do.
Hafkie @ Aug 26th 2009 10:57PM
I've ran statistics (along with other members at Scorehero) based on all of the difficulties on the songs in the game.
VOCALS has the highest difficulty, with the average being 4.86/10, with a standard deviation of 2.062
DRUMS comes in second with the average of 4.26/10. The Standard deviation is a staggering 2.468.
GUITAR comes in a close third, with an average of 4.25/10 The Standard deviation, however, is much lower 1.807.
BASS comes in last, as usually expected, with a pathetic 3.57/10 average. Standard Deviation is 1.685.
Drums and Vocals are the only instruments with 10/10 ratings on the game.
Drums being
Brianstorm
21st Century Shizoid Man
Scatterbrain (Live)
and Vocals being
Under Pressure
charlie b. @ Aug 27th 2009 12:54PM
@Hafkie would it be fair to assume you haven't had sex in a long time?
Just_a_guy @ Aug 26th 2009 9:27PM
It's the fact that we have the next version of a game vs a sub version of another game. that's why we see Guitar Hero winning!
Brian Fantana @ Aug 26th 2009 9:27PM
No fucking way. It might out sell the Premium Beatles Rock Band kit with the Bass and Drums, but, I think at least 3/4 of the people who own RB 1&2 will buy this.
It is compatable with RB 1 isnt it?
If it does, then that just proves people who play music games are truly retards.
johnnynumber5 @ Aug 26th 2009 9:57PM
I think the Beatles game is it's own platform not compatible with any previous Rock Band game.
kjclock @ Aug 27th 2009 1:51PM
yes it is compatible with rb1/2 instruments. the songs are not able to be ripped to the hd and played through the first 2 games.
Extortioner @ Sep 7th 2009 1:21PM
Yeah it's compatible (instruments wise, check: http://www.rockband.com/compatibility ) but as stated by kjclock you can;t import RB (1 or 2) songs/DLC into Beatles RB.
They are in fact totally different games, except the instruments which only differ in looks.