Analyst: GameStop sales safe from digital delivery until 2017
Even though GameStop seems to be accepting the inevitable digital future, one analyst says the major gaming retailer won't feel the pinch from online game delivery services until 2017. According to Broadpoint AmTech analyst Ben Schachter, limited storage capacity and bandwidth limitations mean it is "unlikely" that digital services will have a "meaningful impact" on GameStop's sales within this console cycle. Schachter doesn't anticipate the next console cycle to kick off until some time in 2014 and, even if future formats are completely digital, believes it will still take a number of years for market penetration to reach a threatening level to the retail business.
For an example of "proof" to his claims, Schachter points to the "very disappointing sales" of the digital download exclusive, Grand Theft Auto IV: The Lost & Damned. Confusing, considering all previous accounts have pointed to the downloadable expansion as seeing strong sales since release.
"The bottom line is that retail still matters," Schachter told IndustryGamers. While some analysts are keen on throwing the brick-and-motar chain under the bus during the increasing digital age, Schachter claims Gamestop "continues to defy the naysayers." He went on to ask if we wanted to pre-order any future games industry analysis.
For an example of "proof" to his claims, Schachter points to the "very disappointing sales" of the digital download exclusive, Grand Theft Auto IV: The Lost & Damned. Confusing, considering all previous accounts have pointed to the downloadable expansion as seeing strong sales since release.
"The bottom line is that retail still matters," Schachter told IndustryGamers. While some analysts are keen on throwing the brick-and-motar chain under the bus during the increasing digital age, Schachter claims Gamestop "continues to defy the naysayers." He went on to ask if we wanted to pre-order any future games industry analysis.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Dirty @ Oct 15th 2009 8:08PM
dood aan gamestop!!!
The Dark Wayne [Planeteer: Power of the Batusi] @ Oct 15th 2009 8:28PM
dem duke boys is at it agen!
HighFiveJesus @ Oct 15th 2009 8:44PM
neeheeheeheeyeauck
Masker @ Oct 15th 2009 8:10PM
Schachter=Patcher?
CH3BURASHKA @ Oct 15th 2009 8:11PM
His evil twin.
SimbaDogg @ Oct 16th 2009 12:13AM
yeah its kinda like this...
http://enemigapublica.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/385766michael_knight5b15d.jpg
awwwww
http://i452.photobucket.com/albums/qq250/carmenzangia/Garthecloseup3.jpg
ohhhh nooooo
CH3BURASHKA @ Oct 15th 2009 8:10PM
This is quite disheartening, especially when you take in account that analysts usually present the best-case scenario. I was thinking the next generation of consoles would be all online.
The Dark Wayne [Planeteer: Power of the Batusi] @ Oct 15th 2009 8:30PM
if they hit at 2011 or 12 like people have been predicting then not a chance. There's no way asshole internet providers are gonna speed the US up and loosen up the reins like Europe by then, 2017 seems almost as unlikely to me as well
Special Agent Steve @ Oct 15th 2009 8:12PM
Schachter?
Did Pachter just create a pseudonym?
Nice try, but I can see through your mask Mr. M Pachter.
Donald @ Oct 15th 2009 8:16PM
The note was handwritten and it looks like they thought the second 1 was a 7.
Lurker28 @ Oct 15th 2009 8:19PM
Digital Distribution has already heavy impacted the PC Gaming industry and as always the console tends to follow what the direction of the PC...at has remained so for the past 15-20 years. Boxed retail packages of PC games have been falling every year, especially over the past two years and it is not due to a lack of demand but the shift to digital copies. I think the PC will be 60% converted probably by 2012, so when they talk about consoles games primarily being sold digitally I think they are farely close with their guess. Probably between 2015 and 2017 we will start to see a good rise in digital copies of console games and a marginal decrease in net revenue from retail packaging by then.
xoxaan @ Oct 16th 2009 12:40AM
Do some research. Digital downloading has little to do with the decline in PC game sales. Consoles have driven PC game sales down for several years and PC game sales have been on a steady decline since the rise of systems in general but esp the latest: 360, PS3, Wii. People don't play PC games as much because the average person can't afford a $1700-2500 gaming computer every 2 years versus a $300-600 console that will last you 7 years. PC games cost less to encourage sales, period. Consoles and their games DO NOT and HAVE NOT followed PC game sale trends for years. If anything, all this indicates is that PC games will continue to dwindle until they stagnate as a niche market for those who love to mod -- one reason why I think PC games will always exist. Steam and all other PC downloading services are certainly affecting retail sales, but I doubt its as significant as you would like to think.
Chris D.(PSN: Aggie_CEO | XBL:The Aggie CEO | Steam: Aggie_CEO @ Oct 15th 2009 8:26PM
I was thinking 2020 at the earliest....the sooner the better thi...
Sam406 @ Oct 15th 2009 8:27PM
I dont know, if I had to choose between a physical disk and a downloadable version I would still go for the disk.
Call me spoiled, but there is something nice about the feeling about peeling that plastic from a brand new game that makes me feel like a child again.
Also having the manual is always nice.
ripslymemc @ Oct 15th 2009 8:46PM
if companies are able to follow steam's method of drm, I honestly can't complain. if my hard drive ever corrupts or anything, its good to know that I can download it wherever I am, as long as I have internet. plus, what if I lose or scratch the disk? there's no guarantee for that. (for the record though, my games sit safely right next to my ps3) also, if I'm traveling, moving, or on the go, I won't have to worry about lugging around disks if they're on my hard drive.
the biggest thing that will make me move to digital dist. is the cost. if you're not making a box for it and you don't need to pay for rent, you might as well lower it. anything lower than the current release price for me is good.
but, until then, i'll stick to physical copies. :)
Dr. Bradwart [100% Reagan Conservative!] @ Oct 15th 2009 8:28PM
Needs...Moar...Pachter!
Dreaded Fear @ Oct 15th 2009 8:45PM
In the right hands digital distribution can be awesome (Valve); however, my main concern is with Microsoft. Everything on Games on Demand is overpriced, and is no where near the cost of games at retail. You could make the argument that they do not want to directly compete with the retail stores purposefully. But if you look at their deals of the week - they are awful.
I doubt we will be seeing much competitive pricing on consoles since both Microsoft and Sony both have full reign over their respective online stores; unlike Valve who have to face competition from retailers, other download sites, and piracy. I guess only time will tell.
Mr Khan @ Oct 15th 2009 9:01PM
I agree wholeheartedly.
CheeziePotato (PSN: talic10 | XBL: InfiniteMovie) @ Oct 15th 2009 9:19PM
I was thinking GameStop would be bought out by 2012.
mrlittledebbie @ Oct 15th 2009 9:20PM
ehhh. fine with me.
sohcahtoa @ Oct 15th 2009 9:23PM
What i believe that the original article meant about GTA4: The Lost and the Damned, is that the number of purchased DLC is significantly lower than the number of GTA4 purchased on the xbox360.
Being top selling DLC doesn't mean that everyone who owns a GTA4 owns the DLC, it just meant it sold well compared to the other DLC. Also, if the DLC market as a whole is lower than the total number of Xbox360 consumers as a whole, than the good sale would not indicate much.
Steve @ Oct 15th 2009 9:41PM
How can Gamestop say sales for GTA: Lost and the Damned are dissapointing when Microsoft/Rockstar don't release those numbers? Are they only going by the sales of the redeemable cards in their stores? Not exactly an all-encompassing sample. However until companies start releasing those numbers, we won't know for sure, but we can assume that if it were really successful, it would have been copied by now.
Tumes @ Oct 15th 2009 10:25PM
I love how we are all jumping up and down about digital downloading like its going to be a great deal for consumers. We are basically going to give console makers complete control of game sales not to mention give up our property rights in the process. If you can't sell or give your game to someone else then you do not actually own it you are leasing it. Imagine if auto makers found a way to prevent you from trading or selling your car? That is what we are talking about. I know everyone hates gamestop, but you cannot dispute the fact that they gave us a way to recover some value from our games we don't play. With digital downloading you cannot sell any games. If you think it will lead to lower prices because it costs less to produce a digital game go read some books on vertical monopolies and see how that delivered lower prices. There is a reason movie studios can't own movie theaters and beer manufacturers can't own bars - Sherman Anti-Trust Act. Its mind boggling that we are sitting hear cheering this on instead of being concerned.
Complaints about the burden of carrying around games is crazy unless you ride the train to work for four hours and can't focus on playing one or two games.
xoxaan @ Oct 16th 2009 12:28AM
Finally someone who also understands that digital downloading is NOT a good thing! Streaming is of course the worst because you literally have no control of what you are paying for. I don't understand why people can't understand that when you download you are giving up your property rights. This is elementary and all you are trading your rights for is convenience. Furthermore, in the scenario that digital downloading completely takes over in 20 years how could you honestly be naive enough to believe that the publishers and developers won't charge you the same price that retail would? Once a competitor is crushed, the low prices always disappear. We've seen it over and over again! Whats terrible about this is that you, the CONSUMER, will have signed over property rights to the publishers and there will be no alternatives for you unless you simply stop gaming. I hate Gamestop just as much as anyone else does -- hence the reason I shop at my local mom & pop game store -- but I'd rather give my money to GS than sell my soul to the publishers. Also, for those of you who are sick of "lugging" games around (seriously?!), good luck keeping track of all your tiny memory chips.
Plastic Rat @ Oct 16th 2009 1:25AM
Thanks for this post. I thought there were no more sane people left.
Everyone is missing the very real downsides that digital downloads hold for the consumer. Some have been mentioned, but there are many others.
Those who think it will make things cheaper, think again. In fact have a look at the current PSN. None of those games are cheaper, in fact most are more expensive than physical media.. and this in a time when they still have to compete with physical media.
Lastly, other restrictions, such as region locking. It's infuriating when you want to buy something and they go 'Sorry, this isn't available in your area.'
At least now you can import stuff on disk via grey importers. All of that will be gone with digital only.
I sincerely hope physical media stays around for a LONG, long time to come.
replayvideo @ Oct 15th 2009 11:18PM
I am so tired of hearing how digital downloads are going to destroy every brick-and-mortar store in the world and everyone will simply download all their entertainment. There is going to be a market for both and always will be. They both have their advantages and disadvantages. When you download a game, you are only licensing it for use. You do not own it. You cannot trade it in. You cannot gift it to a friend. You're not going to find it in a clearance bin for cheap. There is something about digital downloads that is just... boring. I rarely download because I like owning things I buy. I like having a physical thing that I can do whatever I want with. I also like getting up from my computer and going out shopping. Interacting with other human beings. Looking for rare games and bargains. Once I found a Sega Saturn Panzer Dragoon 2 in mint condition at a pawn shop for $2. In the time it takes for a movie rental to download on my cable internet off i-tunes, I can get out and drive across town to the independent video store near me, rent an actual disc, come home and watch half of it-- and for older movies, at half the price. My video store does 5 movies, 5 nights for $5 on older titles. Sometimes the internet cuts off in the middle and I have to retry the download. And how many people even have high speed anyway? Not everyone lives in town. No everyone spends all their free time online. All I'm saying is: let's stop pretending everyones' lives revolve around the internet and trying to make people believe all business will soon be conducted online. The internet is basically just a big, electronic mail order catalogue. It has its functions, but it is not the end all and be all of our lives. Now go out and support your local brick-and-mortars, before we all end up out of jobs. Remember: every penny you spend at a local business improves your local economy. We'd all have jobs to spare if we stopped shopping online and got out in the community and spent our disposable income.
Captain Underpants @ Oct 16th 2009 4:53AM
I reckon 'brick and mortar' shops should stop whining and set up their own digital distribution network. Move with the times or move over, fellas.
And I wouldn't mind leasing a game, as long as it's significantly cheaper than owning it.
cobra @ Oct 16th 2009 7:56AM
Yeah, cuz we all should be just the same. Monopolies always help bring prices down-- and spur innovation to boot! Brick and mortars would be fine if they would just stop being... um. brick. and. mortars? Conformity is good.
You can lease games much cheaper than owning them, Captain Underpants. It's called "renting" it. Check out your local video store for details... Mine charges $5.99 to lease a game for the week... compared to Sony, who charges $34.99 to lease one of their games for PSPGo.
I just want to point out that all this talk about digital downloads being the "cool new thing" and "the future of games" is really just a bunch of hooey. What did you expect to read on an internet website? It's called self-promotion. Imagine, an internet website promoting internet purchases. Wow. Those advertising guys are geniuses!
Eventually, people will get over the novelty and realize they are paying 5 to 10 times the amount they would pay for a lease versus $5 for a rental at a video store. They will realize they can drive to their local video store and rent a copy of a movie faster and cheaper than they can download it to their HDD. That the $14.99 they just paid for a digital download on Amazon for a new movie can only be played on whatever machine is approved by the vendor, and that the same movie was on sale in a sale bin at their local retailer for $7.99.
The smart ones will, anyway. I guess the dumb ones will still pay premium prices for a bunch of electronic 1's and 0's they have no real ownership of and had to wait three days to download. Since the world is full of dumb people who buy into self-promoting advertising, I say purchase stock in companies that produce hard disc drives.
I wonder: if you died right now, can you bequeath your digital library to a loved one, or is all your digital property deleted by the Big Server in the Sky? If all three of your kids want a PSPgo, do you have to buy 3 digital versions of the same game for each of their systems, or will Sony let them share just one? How many times will you be willing to upgrade, update and transfer your digital ownership between machines before you realize you can simply buy a new blu ray player and plug it into the wall to play your physical movie collection... when Windows 15 comes out? Iphone 8Gx?
Digital downloads should be reserved for cheap entertainment while travelling, i app cheapies and demos. If you're going to buy something more than $5, be smart and buy a real physical thing.
Au @ Oct 17th 2009 1:47AM
I've found from conversation that the real reason certain people like digital distribution frameworks (namely Steam) over actually being able to own the actual disc of a game is a blindingly irrational whoring boner for the corporation that owns the framework.
Quite frankly, it's no surprise that people in such a ridiculously naiive state of mind are stupid enough to be ripped off while claiming that they're on the good end of the rape.
seb640 @ Oct 22nd 2009 10:43PM
Spent the last 10 minutes reading the comments, only the really long ones thought (if they wrote that much, might as well read the first line and see where this gets me...)
I'm impressed !
Of the people who actually took a bit of time to write sometime which goes further than :
- That Sucks
- Thats Awesome
- Your mum metaphors
- Other pointless point of views which is easily resumed under 10 syllables..
Some people actually understood the concept that 0s and 1s isn't exactly like having the physical media in your hands and that you would pretty much lose all control over what you do with it...
Internet community just got from "Full of thick people" to " Still full of thick people BUT with a modicum of sense".
Looks like Digital Media is the only thing I'm hearing about these days and i don't like it at all...
http://dvice.com/archives/2009/10/disney-wants-yo.php
Personally, the only digital media I'll be having are the ones i won't pay for !