Pachter: Project Natal will cost $50, 'Sphere' no more than $100 [update]
by David Hinkle 
{ Oct 15th 2009 at 11:00PM } 
Pachter even likens the future state of a Natal-enabled Xbox 360 to the current state of the iPhone -- with features like Twitter, Netflix, Last.fm and Facebook inside Microsoft's box and its intuitive interface, he says casual or non-playing members of Xbox 360 households will become interested. And then when it's bundled with all new Xbox 360s, he says that'll expand Microsoft's reach even more.
For the motion-controlled competition, Pachter says he'd be surprised if Sony's asking price was over $100, and stresses that both Microsoft and Sony need to keep "the consumer's cost relatively low in order to achieve broad penetration."
[Update: Corrected Pachter's belief that the motion controller would be no more than $100. We sincerely apologize for the misinterpretation and the consequent misinformation.]
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 4)
I Al2x I @ Oct 15th 2009 11:04PM
For Sony's doodad, Pachter says the company is "trying to create an answer to the success of the Wii."
I thought Sony was trying to compete with the DS with the new motion control, I didn't even think of relating it to the Wii. Well played, Pachter.
Bushman311 @ Oct 15th 2009 11:09PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SffMdXoBHy8
kojo87 @ Oct 15th 2009 11:13PM
do you know what a Wii is? how would this possibly compete with the DS?
Rudy van DiSarzio, Jazz fusion guitarist. (I go by many names...) @ Oct 15th 2009 11:16PM
The coffee is free?
Sly @ Oct 15th 2009 11:19PM
joke
-----------------
kojo's head
I Al2x I @ Oct 15th 2009 11:19PM
@kojo87: Oh, I forgot most people wouldn't get jokes, forgot the html tag.
/sarcasm
BPMOmega [XBL, PSN, Steam] @ Oct 15th 2009 11:23PM
Jokes are usually funny.
Sly @ Oct 15th 2009 11:45PM
it was funny after kojo commented. haha...
kojo87 @ Oct 16th 2009 12:48AM
wow. i never pick up sarcasm is text form. it actually cost me a relationship once. true story
TypeF @ Oct 16th 2009 1:08AM
i hate this douche he thinks he knows it all...all his prediction are stupid and never come true
Wes @ Oct 16th 2009 1:31AM
That's a pretty clever joke. My clever joke was going to be more about Pachter along the lines of, 'Come on how Pachter. You've been working in the industry how long? You've saw the wireless N adaptor price? the hard drive prices? and you expect a glorified web-camera + software to be only $50.00? A good web-camera alone is nearly $50.00 so this should be ..x6-8 the retail price for the pc equivilent. Yes, around $300.00-$400.00, minimum.
Filthy Assistant @ Oct 16th 2009 2:25AM
So Pachter and a Green Bay Packer walk into a bar. I don't know the rest of the joke but I'm pretty sure it involves fudge.
Residentevil72501 (PSN: rankore) @ Oct 16th 2009 2:36AM
Patcher is a Grade A Certified Dumbass. If Sony prices the globe thing or whatever its called at over 100 bucks it better be compatible with Demon's Souls or Im not buying haha.
Vcize @ Oct 16th 2009 9:01AM
Fudge Patcher?
SewerShark @ Oct 16th 2009 10:09AM
@I Al2x I :
I think he mean that sony is trying to compete by using an similar approach (the Sphere is similar to the Wiimote) and microsoft attempt is something different.
Of course sony and microsoft are trying to compete with nintendo for the motion control...but sony solution is just another wiimote in the eyes of the general consumer.
TypeF @ Oct 16th 2009 11:38AM
Pachter should just quit his job and become a palm reader. After all he's a failure to games.
Mitsuo @ Oct 16th 2009 10:46PM
That's not a HTML tag. you didn't put the opening tag and forgot the closing brackets on the
JUNG GUNS @ Oct 16th 2009 1:50PM
@ TypeF , you have got to be kidding me this guy knows his shit you can be all be jealous but he's *always* right.
bud_toker_13 @ Oct 16th 2009 6:13PM
so yall think natall will be more then 50 whell is the ps eye more then 50 no so y would natal be more its the same thing as the ps eye so its nothing enovative as for the sphear or wand is i like to call it if you have a ps eye alredy it wont cost more then 50 60 cus thats how much a controler cost and if you dont have a ps eye it will cost 90 to 100 cus you will need a ps eye and a wand and if thy bundle them with eye pet it will cost about 140 to 150 cus it will have a ps eye a wand and a game so in conclushon natal is a ps eye and nothing more and the wand is sonys anser to the wii
fuzzynyanko @ Oct 15th 2009 11:06PM
$50 would be an amazing price for Natal. I would definitely be tempted at that price. if it was $200, I would have waited, or got a PS3 instead (no Wands)
Sebastien @ Oct 15th 2009 11:35PM
Remember it's Microsoft you are talking about! They want everything that is in your pocket. The cost of Natal maybe $50 but MS will charge you double for it and they will introduce platinum live to make you pay extra to use natal online. Probably natal will kill of 50% of sold 360's due to a bug or something.
AoE @ Oct 15th 2009 11:42PM
@Sebastien,
Oh to be young and a fanboy... I envy you, young lad.
edhe @ Oct 16th 2009 12:31PM
Natal
izikavazo @ Oct 16th 2009 1:07PM
Oh my, I seriously doubt Natal is going to go for $50. I'm sure it will be cheaper than Sony's option, but $50? Have we seen the price of Xbox accessories recently? It'll be at least $100.
maveric101 @ Oct 15th 2009 11:06PM
Natal will cost less than a game, and the same amount as a wireless controller? half the cost of the freaking wireless adapter? this guy's lost it.
The1stMJC @ Oct 15th 2009 11:08PM
yea that would be the cheapest accessory for the 360 ever.
Hakaisou @ Oct 15th 2009 11:29PM
which is why its freakin' impossible. I refuse to acknowledge a price point for Natal that's less than a damn 360 hard drive.
JizzyB @ Oct 15th 2009 11:36PM
Very true, no way that it's going to be $50. Just not happening. And for Sony's sake, I hope that "Sphere" isn't $100, don't think they'll move much at that price.
Swagman @ Oct 15th 2009 11:38PM
Not really lost it, just going out on a limb a little bit, and for good reason.
I remember seeing way back in 2006, the expected retail price for the 3DV tech that powers Natal, by the company that designed it. They were predicting 3DV to hit retail at some point in Q1 2007 and retail between $150 and $200. THAT WAS FOR Q1 2007.
Fast-forward to Q4 2010, almost four years after the 3DV tech was supposed to hit the market. In that time space, not only has Microsoft purchased the 3DV company, but have put teams to work to improve the concept, while reducing the cost to build. It is not without reason to believe Natal could cost Microsoft literally somewhere between $50 to $100 to build each unit.
Even assuming that Natal costs Microsoft $100 per unit, they have stated time and again, they want as many people to adopt Natal as humanly possible (old and new gamers alike). The lesson learned from Wii, is the cost is going to play a major role in widespread adoption of Natal. So even if it did cost Microsoft $100 to make one by late 2010, they'd be more than willing to swallow half of the price just to get as many people as possible to buy one. Hence, Pachter's prediction of a $50 price point.
Do not be surprised come this time next year, to find out that somewhere in the $50 ballpark is where Natal is launched at. Factor in the concept that Microsoft wants to bundle Natal with an existing 360 SKU, and treat the entire SKU as a "new" console, then getting Natal down in price at launch is going to be key in making that idea a reality. At $50, Microsoft could bundle Natal with the Arcade SKU, and still sell then entire package for $199.99. Keep in mind the Arcade SKU all by itself, is likely to continue to go down in cost to build price over the next year. So instead of a price drop to $150, Microsoft bundles Natal with the Arcade SKU and retains the $200 price point.
Even if Sony drops the price of the PS3 by another $100 in the coming year, something that is not very likely as Sony is still losing money on PS3 Slim and needs to recuperate every dime they can get their hands on in the hopes of one day making PS3 profitable. And lowering the price further on PS3, is still setting Sony in a position where they are still losing money on hardware. Were all things equal and both Microsoft and Nintendo still losing money on hardware at this point (much less in late 2010), then Sony could be justified in continually placing themselves in a place to lose money on hardware. However, both Microsoft and Nintendo, even in H2 2009 are making money on their hardware, which leaves them a degree of room to manuver on price, something Sony simply is still a couple years away from.
I digress. As I was saying, even if Sony drops the PS3 price to the $200 price point at the same time, they are not likely to bundle a $100 motion controller with their $200 PS3. Microsoft on the other hand,
The big question is going to be if Nintendo drops the price of Wii to the $150 price point, while Microsoft and Sony are duking it out at the $200 price point. Microsoft could get away with justifying the extra $50 price over the Wii, based upon all the better tech under the 360/Natal hood. However, Sony is going to have a little more trouble justifying the price point, considering the Sphere controller is not likely to be bundled with the PS3 at that price point, and in order to get it, punters have to pay an additional $100, bringing the total expenditure to $300 . . . literally double the price of a Wii should Nintendo take the plunge to $150 in late 2010.
PR0F3TA (PSN - PROPHETA) @ Oct 15th 2009 11:53PM
tl;dr - Could be true, i guess?
maveric101 @ Oct 16th 2009 12:36AM
yeah i could definitely see it costing them under $100 to manufacture one, but they've overcharged a lot for every other accessory, and i'm not convinced this one will be different. i know most consumers aren't as knowledgeable as the average joystiqer, but i think most consumers would compare it to the price of the wifi adapter and go "what?"
Victoryismine @ Oct 16th 2009 12:46AM
@Swagman
Wow long post man..... where do I begin. Ok your first comment actually supports a Higher price point... the fault is in looking only at production costs. When Pricing Microsoft needs to also take into account operating costs. When You look at total cost for Natal the $50 price point really begins to make less and less sence.
1. They had to Purchase 3DV
2. They had to spend money to develop the product
3. They have Marketing cost
4.They may have even stopped the product from Launching to further develop the product holding off revenue that would make them need to support a division of their company (3DV) that was not profitable
5. added on to this you have the logistics costs of manufacturing which normally don't get baked into manufacturing costs.
Even if it cost them $50 to build they would still loose millions on marketing alone. I don't see this happening unless they bundle that I could see although I see them packaging this in with the Elite bundle so that they can better compete with the PS3 as opposed to dropping the elite price again.
By the way I love how you kept comparing the 360 Arcade price to the PS3 ahhhh way to show a bias. The Arcade will stay at Wii pricing to compete with that and the Elite will stay around the PS3's pricing to compete with that...(although it should be cheaper due to WiFi not bias I'm just pissed that I have to use my Laptop to get wireless on my 360).
Microsoft is a Business they'll price Natal at the HIGHEST price that the demand will support. This is Economics 101 and the reason why microsoft will also Hipe Natal as much as possible so that they can raise the price and people will still buy it. As someone else pointed out Microsoft has already said this to some extent. They said that the pricing would start at a higher point giving them room to drop over time.... a $50 price point doesn't really give them room to drop. Also I think Prachter isn't giving us enough info here because I could see Sphere at $100 if it was bundled to be 1 Playstation Eye and 2 sphere's That would make perfect sence considering PSEye is at $40 now and $30 per sphere. but if he means $100 per Sphere there is NO way that is a rediculous price point and I don't think Sony is that stupid. They priced themselves out of the market once but that was due to the Tech that they were providing they wouldn't just do it for fun.
calgaryalta @ Oct 16th 2009 1:01AM
I wonder if I'm the only one who didn't take the time to read Swagman's post or Victoryismine's reply...
I'll go back and read them after I move my schedule around ;)
Burns11 @ Oct 16th 2009 1:18AM
People have really short memories, it wasn't but 9 days ago Microsoft themselves said: http://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/07/project-natal-price-to-launch-with-room-to-drop/
It's hard to drop the price from $50 in any meaningful way on any peripheral. I think Pachter forgot a 1 on that price, or even a 2.
Stevetrop @ Oct 16th 2009 1:32AM
Man I must say he has to be smoking some potent stuff this go-round. I'm really interested in natal but I can't see it being 50 bucks.
SoCoolCurt (PSN: KillaKornbread - XBL: SoCoolCurt) @ Oct 16th 2009 2:28AM
i gotta agree with Victoryismine on this one. sure i haven't seen schematics and stuff for the Playstation Motion Control but from what i can understand from watching the videos and stuff, it pretty much uses existing tech. it seems to me to be essentially a PS3 controller in a Wii like form factor (with a better accelerometer) with a sphere shaped light on top to make it more visible to the camera. this thing uses the regular PSEye, which has been out for a couple years now. maybe if the bundle the camera it could get more pricey, but as is, i'm just not seeing $100 worth of tech in there, especially since we're talking about existing products that have just been enhanced and repurposed.
now Natal is essentially a camera too and since the rumor is that PSEye (going off that old tech video) is capable of similar stuff now, i feel like his Natal price would be pretty accurate. only thing that makes me shakey on that is that MS has made public their "wiggle room" strategy for the pricing.
i feel like these products will both be priced competitively with each other. and for him to say that MS isn't going after the Wii too is crazy. Nintendo found black gold with their demographic bending Wii and MS and Sony are both salivating to get a piece of that action.
Monica Dickey @ Oct 16th 2009 2:28AM
since their little wireless internet adapter is $80 I see no way they will sell their hot new wii competitor for only $50 geeez
mahouneko @ Oct 16th 2009 7:37AM
@Monica:
The Wireless-G is $80 whereas the Wireless-N is $100.
fred @ Oct 16th 2009 8:20AM
gaming blog comments: more insightful than game analysts since forever.
Mo @ Oct 16th 2009 10:56AM
Uhm, I am sorry... but when the fuck is natal coming out??? oh yeah, thats right no1 knows... and we're talking about price??? why? oh yeah cuz fuck shit head pachter?
meh....
Zampano @ Oct 16th 2009 12:56PM
I don't remember where, but I swear I just read an article last week that said MS was hinting at a pretty high price for Natal. Like, somewhere in the range of the cost of the 360. Am I nuts? Did I completely misinterpret what I read? Or is Pachter really just THAT misinformed and full of shit? Anyone have some clarification (on what I read, I already know Pachter's full of shit)?
warlock7 @ Oct 16th 2009 3:30PM
@swagman: you're nuts.
No way you can suggest that MS is making money on the 360 without a LOT of creative accounting. The refurbish program they have in place will not allow for a profit. It's just moved to a different balance sheet. With a 30+% failure rate it's simply not possible. Don't buy into the hype, like you are.
Victoryismine @ Oct 16th 2009 3:57PM
@Zampano
Please read the comments this has been mentioned and even linked to by Burns11
@warlock7
Wow well put I hadn't even thought of that will all of the operating costs for Customer service MS may not actually be making a profit on this console if it weren't for Xbox live....(I'm thinkin that's REALLY why they charge for Live they have to support the cost of their Customer Support and repairs somehow)
iPunch @ Oct 15th 2009 11:06PM
Over at IndustryGamers, everyone's favorite video game predicterer (we're still working on that one)
*predickterer
work complete. take nap.
PSN: Captain__Planet (Not Captain Planet) @ Oct 15th 2009 11:18PM
How about everyone's favorite video game moron?
watchthatman @ Oct 15th 2009 11:31PM
Soothsayer.
ColorblindMonk @ Oct 15th 2009 11:08PM
The Playstation Eye being the Wii sensor bar and the goofy ball on stick being Wii's waggle stick.
I'm positive the "Sphere" will do leaps and bounds in this new motion control competition, but the price is, as expected of Sony, harsh.
deanb @ Oct 16th 2009 12:56AM
The price is a guestiamte, same as the $50 for Natal.
Neither company has outed a price for their motion set ups.
Though to think Natal will be that cheap you have to thin its April 1st.
MrAlex @ Oct 16th 2009 10:58AM
If your referring to the PS3, I really don't think the pricing was harsh, considering how they were selling it for less than the manufacturing cost. However it was definitely pushing what is an acceptable price for a console.
Markez (attempting to call me less of a man because i knew so much about pans) @ Oct 15th 2009 11:08PM
Dear Jeebus, please gift me with a magical interweb flyswatter