EEDAR predicts Nintendo dominance, weak GTA and Brutal Legend performance in October sales

by JC Fletcher on Nov 10th 2009 2:30PM

EEDAR has released its predictions for October sales charts in North America. Analyst Jesse Divnich expects year-over-year declines for every console except the PS3 -- but also expects the Wii to regain its place at the lead, with an estimated 600,000 units sold. Divnich predicts that the Wii will remain at the top for the rest of the year -- based partly on New Super Mario Bros. Wii. Divnich expects the title to lose initially to Modern Warfare 2 in November, but pick up sales in the holidays and become the best-selling game of the year.

Other games expected to pick up in the holidays include Grand Theft Auto: Episodes from Liberty City and Brutal Legend. Divnich expects both games to underperform in October (coming in at under 100,000 and 300,000 units, respectively), but to receive significant boosts in the holidays.

Demon's Souls, however, may exceed expectations. Divnich estimates that Atlus's punishing RPG sold 100,000 copies in October.

Tags: brutal-legend, demons-souls, eedar, episodes-from-liberty-city, jesse-divnich, Microsoft, new-super-mario-bros-wii, Nintendo, Wii, Xbox-360

Reader Comments (41)

Demon's Souls: It will eat your soul.

I've already poured 3 hours into it, and last night I died while in soul mode, losing a SHIT TON of souls. I was pissed, to say the least...all the same, tonight I'll be playing again after MW2.

I bought Uncharted2 on launch day and beat it by the end of the weekend. I had anticipated playing the online for several months...

That was until I bought Demon's Souls a few weeks ago. And I really don't see myself playing anything else for quite awhile.

I actually feel bad because I really want to get MW2, but I know if I do I won't play it until at least I beat DS one time through...

Same here with Uncharted 2. I did at least try the MP after beating the campaign, but with MW2 waiting on me at home and DS waiting after that, it's going to be awhile before I can pull myself away.

Demon's Souls = crack. Love that game...but it hates me, just like crack.

I will admit I was riding, nay driving, the Brutal Legend hype train all year. Choo choo!

I love me some Tim Schaffer, but that is not a very good game. I am trying to force myself to finish the solo mode so I can see the ending and send it back to Goozex.

Now go back and replay Psychonauts with that attitude and you'll find it's not a very good game, either.

I haven't played Brutal Legend, but I have played and replayed Psychonauts. It's still has some of the most creative level design I've ever encountered. Plus the dialogue is, as to be expected, Schafer good. Yes, I have turned Tim's last name into a verb. I think it deserves it.

I wouldn't say that NSMB Wii will be the best-selling game of the year, but I'm pretty sure that it will ultimately outsell MW2.

Yeah, I don't think New Super Mario Bros. Wii will outsell Moder Warfare 2 this year, but it will definitely outsell it in about four months, and it will be one of the best selling games this gen.

New Super Mario Bros. on the DS has sold 20 millions worldwide; that's more than any console game on any current gen system. Heck, even Mario Kart Wii has sold more than any other game on the PS3 or 360 with 18 millions.

But I'm sure that Modern Warfare 2 will be the biggest seller third party game across all platforms. Initial sales will be huge.

I'm going to go out on a limb and give the edge to NSMB on both platforms individually. Combined on all 3 platforms it won't, but I think it'll beat it on 360, PS3 and PC.

I learned my lesson to not doubt Nintendo and a new Mario game after Mario Kart Wii crushed GTA4. Still can't believe the numbers Mario Kart Wii is STILL doing.

brutal legends i definitely liked playing. i rented it at first, then decided to buy it because i cant say no to jack black

Not sure if NSMBWii will outsell MW2. I'd actually doubt it. NSMB was a slow burner and I don't see any reason to expect this to be different. Certainly one of the top sellers anyway overall and should be the top seller on Wii.

Yeah, it should beat MW2 sometime mid next year.

In the long term, i say it most likely will. Day one, it definitely will not (MW2's got it beat about 8 to 1 in terms of preorders), and i think that when the ball drops on December 31st, it'll still be well ahead, but that NSMBWii will continue charting in some form or other well into next summer, which will help it pull ahead in the end.

I agree with Mr Khan, but definitely it'll not outsell by the end of 09. By the end of 10 it'll be close if not above. Depends how much people want a 2D Mario on a home console.

Okay I'm sorry but this guy lost all credibility with me when he said that Mario would outsell Modern Warfare. Note to Divnich when you have boat loads of games change their release dates to avoid a little game called Modern Warfare you know it's going to be big. They didn't say they were avoiding Mario they were avoiding Modern Warfare. Don't get me wrong Marios going to be big but Modern Warfare it ain't.

But then does the fact Mario was willing to stand against it say anything about how strong Mario is?

And why is that a surprise?

Mario Kart Wii has sold more than GTA 4, Halo 3 and even Modern Warfare 1... NSMBW should sell even more than Mario Kart Wii, specially now that we are in the holiday season.

Of course Modern Warfare 2 will sell a lot more than NSMBW in the first month, because we all know that 360 software sales are very front loaded, but in the end, Mario will be the biggest seller.

The thing is, they can coexist. 2 different (if overlapping) markets and 2 completely different styles of gameplay. Wii games are slow burners...NSMB will be in people's stockings for sure.

In the meantime, back to Dragon Age!

Agreed with Fernando...the branding alone gives Mario games legs in that not only is it recognizable, but it appeals to a broader age range.

I don't know. Most of MW2 sales will come within the first few months, whereas Nintendo games tend to stick on the charts for months or even years on end.

I don't think NSMBWii will outsell MW2 this year - but I'd hold the discussion of whether or not it would outsell it overall in the end.

Although MW2 will sell well, Mario games have been known to sell consistently well over a long period of time.

Haha- you actually think Call of Duty is bigger than Mario?

Call of Duty will be finished as a brand and in decline by the time the next generation of consoles comes out in a few years. I'd bet money on that. Activision's yearly pimping of it guarantees it, if nothing else.

Mario, meanwhile, will still be going stronger than ever.

Wow, someone new to the game's industry. You don't know how much of a beast Mario is. New Super Mario Bros. Wii will outsell at least one MW2 sku by January (Reggie is right), but New Super Mario Bros. Wii will outsell all MW2 skus COMBINED within a years time.

You wanna see some sexy legs again? If NSMB on DS or Mario Kart Wii didn't prove it, this game will.

My guess is that GTA won't do so well this time around.
Was anyone else put off by how antiquated the graphics looked?

During Family Guy, I saw PS3 commercials, a MW2 commercial, & the GTA one... They should've spent their time on GTA5!!

I actually think EEDAR is overselling the Wii a bit for this month. 600k is a lofty goal, though this is the first full month post-price-drop, but it lacked anything of note (as a system seller, at least), aside from Wii Fit Plus, which should see most of it's strength from existing Wii Fit owners.

Dead Space: Extraction!

Mario's got some big mozza balls going up against Modern Warfare. I like it. Nintendo knows what they've got on their hands and don't care about the other games out there. Like everyone has been saying, MW2 will definitely be the biggest game out there initially, but in the long run, no one can keep sprinting to the end flag pole like Mario. NO ONE!

But he's a fat Italian plumber! The laws of physics can't be disobeyed!

That's what he wants you to think - he's just some lazy, fat plumber, and then BAM! He just triple jumped over your head and shot a fireball up your ass!

^ lol

I didnt expect Episodes from Liberty city to do well, but I wonder how Gay Tony will on it's own? TLAD sold like 2 million didn't it? And with Tony's return to crazy explosionness i would expect even more

By the way, The Ballad of Gay Tony is fan-fucking-tastic.

These Demon's Souls news made my day.

"Analyst Jesse Divnich expects year-over-year declines for every console except the PS3..."

Shameless as usual! I swear, these guys have a little key in their backs that Sony has to wind regularly, just like in that old Penny Arcade comic. "The Playstation 3 will revolutionize the video game industry, crush its competitors, and I am biiiiiig whooooore..."

Um...right...Divnich is a straight up guy and has been more accurate than the rest of the analcysts out there.

No he isn't. Pachter is the most accurate. Kotaku actually compiled everything the analysts said (about a year ago) and found that Pachter was correct more often than any of them.

Not sure where people are getting that Jesse Divinich is one of the most accurate analysts. That is FAR from the truth, actually.
http://kotaku.com/356982/analyzing-the-analysts-episode-one
http://kotaku.com/358091/analyzing-the-analysts-episode-two

Demon's Souls FTW. I'm almost ready to start NG++ :)

Ahh Demon Souls, the only one that locked me in a cage with no key.

So much for Sony's PS3 return to the top. PS3 will NEVER and I repeat NEVER catch up to Wii sales this generation. PS3 will be forced to end it's production prematurely and end up at the dismal and embarassing last place this generation. It will be known as the console that was a financial drain on Sony the whole generation...just like the PSP!

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EEDAR predicts Nintendo dominance, weak GTA and Brutal Legend performance in October sales

Reader Comments (41)

Posted: Nov 10th 2009 2:34PM xGeneral DEATHxDEETH82 said

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