GameFly going public, files $50 million IPO

I'm gonna buy a couple shares

I think it'll be a good buy. However, at some point I anticipate Netflix to get into this themselves, or to end up buying Gamefly. Depending upon which way that goes and if either happens, it'll either go waaaaay up, or waaaaay down.

This is so not cool. "GFLY" is my gangsta name.

*calls Joker*

I'll some shares as soon as they open up more shipping locations.

I accidentally some shares in my portfolio.

Knew it!

I have to say Chris D, when I first saw your post I hated you.
But I have respect for you now
*brofist*

How much Sony stock do you have?

I don't even know if distribution centers is the real problem, their organization just seems horribly messed up. I sent in both of my rentals once, and with 2 games at High availability, 4 at low, and 5 at medium, it took literally an entire month before they sent me something, and that isn't even including how long i took to get here.

I re-up my Gamefly subscription every three or four months when they send me an offer for a month at the introductory price. I then play any and all games that came out in that time (that I haven't purchased), and cancel for the next quarter or so. So far, this strategy has worked out pretty well for me. There isn't a game that has come out that I simply haven't been able to play.

Having said that, I think I speak for most when I say that their system is almost broken. They've shipped me low availability games at the bottom of my list instead of high availability games at the top. They've also held off on shipping me anything, despite multiple "available now"s, due to the fact that my #1 game was low availability. They can't make up their mind about what should get shipped and when, and they desperately need some sort of notification system, where they can text me, or e-mail me with the name of the available game, asking whether or not I want that particular game shipped to me, or another game that is also available. I'd settle for an options panel asking whether I wanted to wait for my #1 game, or if I'd settle for a lower ranked number. The other problems are mostly related to the post office (my P.O has Fast Track, which cuts waits in half. A lot of P.O's don't, which is a big cause of frustration for many) and their relatively low amount of distribution centers.

I think everyone needs to realize that getting new games isn't really what Gamefly was designed for. Obviously someone has to get their initial shipment of games (long time users get first priority, or that is what I hear over and over), but those people could take a week to finish, so almost everyone else has to sit on their hands and wait. The service is best used to play slightly older games, with higher availability and less demand.

I have a feeling that this IPO will cause a change in management fairly shortly. Someone will come in and really get Gamefly into gear, and when that happens, I have a feeling that the stock has nowhere to go but up. Sadly, I've just blown all my money on custom IEM's, so I'll probably be sulking on a floatie in Bruce Wayne's pool while Chris D makes it rain.


...I've always wanted to make it rain *sniffle*

I acutally don't own any stock in Sony as the only thing of their I own are PlayStation related....but I own stock in Google, Apple, AT&T, Netflix, Fannie Mae, Microsoft, CitiBank, Walmart & Kmart(from leftover 401k's) and a few others...yea fat you are right that now would be a good time to jump into it, and I may end up doing that depending on what the the opening cost is...

and wayne you are partially right, as more distribution centers would help with shipping times, but better management would help with getting games out period. For example, Netflix has a Queue where I can list as many movies as I want, but say for instance my top movies are low in stock, they will send out the movie that is next in line and IS in stock so that I don't have to wait on a movie...and thats just over the process of a day GameFly on the other hand will NOT do this. They will wait days before sending out a game in your Q and then send out whatever they feel like, even IF the games in the top are on medium or high...There excuse from an email when I asked this question, "At the time when we shipped the game at the top of your list was low in stock, so we sent what we had". Basically Things DO need to change with their management, but they also do need more distribution centers as well

my thoughts exactly.

Eventually as in more than 10 years. DD is not coming as fast as anyone thinks it is, and with the way people complain about being nickeled and dimed, when they are and when they aren't, I don't know if it will ever really happen.

Digital distribution of console games is much smaller than its made out to be, and is not going to get much bigger this generation. Look at how MS (with GOD) and Sony (with PSP titles on PSN) always price their games above in-store costs because they don't want to piss off the B&M stores and lose shelf space. Until one of them forms a partnership with Amazon or something, GameFly will probably only get more popular. Combine that with the closure of 1000 Blockbuster stores nationwide (all 3 in my town closed), making it harder to rent games, and GameFly might be very well positioned for further success.

Well downloading a full game can often take days depending on your internet connection. Hell I myself only get 160kb/s max download, so a DD model for Gamefly would be out of the question for me.

Now if we could get better internet speeds for the same price, I might seriously consider a DD future since I usually just rip all CDs and movies I own to my PC anyways.

If you honestly believe that we'll be buying physical by 2020, then I ... well I ... I just disagree!

This is where our opinions differ. Once MS and Sony can get it together and offer new games first day (much like steam), I don't see any reason why people would drive to the store if they can pre-purchase and the game automatically activates at midnight.

That said, there is a market for Gamefly, but as far as investing in it: it may be good short term, but anyone who invests goes for the long term. Long term, GF isn't a good investment. It's like investing in VHS when the first DVDs began coming out.

look at Steam's numbers (those they actually give us) and tell me different.

DD is viable because American ISPs are dicks

" I don't see any reason why people would drive to the store if they can pre-purchase and the game automatically activates at midnight. "

You can't think of any reason, really? You're just the type of person these companies are going to love. Really, it's all going to hinge on what sort of DRM is involved. Maybe it's not a big deal to some people, but how are you going to play older games that you either deleted to make room for new stuff or lost due to hardware failure when you can no longer download and activate them? These are issues that need to be considered when pushing for an all DD future.

*isnt

The bandwidth for digital distribution isn't going to be here for decades. It could be if cities were allowed (or even encouraged) to lay their own fiber, but the lobby standing in the way of that is pretty iron willed in its determination to prevent such a thing from happening.

I think Gamefly shares are likely to go up in price over the long term. If I were Pachter, I'd tell people that it'll be a good thing to sit in their portfolios for the next decade or so. Blockbuster could go belly up tomorrow, or in a few years, and that would drive Gamefly's shares through the roof. Could be a good short term flip as well.


(I am not a stock broker. This hasn't been a stock tip. Do not make stock purchases based on my armchair stock picking)

Relatively speaking (games to movies), GameFly's subs are fairly priced.

You're missing the point. Steam is great now, and maybe it will be for many years to come, but who knows about the future. Also, PCs are treated differently than consoles. There's no guarantee that content for older generations will continue to be support. This post is rather timely and is exactly what I'm talking about:

http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/10/psa-original-xbox-games-dlc-already-offline/

There's no reason to believe that this same situation couldn't occur with full retail games that were only sold online.

yeah it freakin sucks i got dantes inferno today and will probably have bioshock 2 tomorrow. what a terrible service. getting no more heroes 2 two days after release for 36 dollars? what a ripoff.

yeah this seems like common sense but I guess a lot of people just don't get it